Ilonanickels.com - 2008 Understanding the United States Congress January 5, 2009 Ilona Nickels...

ilonanickels.com - 2008

Understanding the United States Congress

January 5, 2009

Ilona NickelsCongressional Analystwww.ilonanickels.com


NEEDED TO PASS LEGISLATION House Majority needed to pass a bill: 218 Senate Majority needed to pass a bill: 51

NEEDED TO BREAK A FILIBUSTER Senate Majority needed to invoke cloture: 60

NEEDED TO OVERRIDE A VETO House Majority needed to override a veto: 290 Senate Majority needed to override a veto: 67

CONGRESSIONAL NUMBERS . . .


111TH CONGRESS

1st SESSION (2009)

HOUSE SENATE

DEMOCRATS 257 58*

REPUBLICANS 178 41

T.B.D. 1 [Minnesota Recount]

Total Membership 435 100

* Includes 2 Independents: Joseph Lieberman, CT

Bernie Sanders, VT


Negotiation and consensus are needed for any legislation to progress: the dynamic is finding common ground. But the completed elections operated on a different dynamic: emphasizing differences. Will leadership be able to convince congressional partisans that it is time for a new approach?

Voters consistently tell pollsters they desire less partisanship and more policy partnership. But they have not delivered that same message to their elected officials with the same force. They have cognitive dissonance: they want consensus but they vote for Clint Eastwood-type [“make my day”] politicians.

There is more partisanship in Congress, in part, because more districts are “safe” for the incumbent party due to redistricting. The real battles are in the primaries, not the general election. This forces candidates away from the center as they court their party’s activist base. It is the activists that turn out to vote in primaries more than other voters.

Will Bipartisanship be Any More a Reality in the New Congress than

it was in the Last?


Will the House Majority Remain Divided?

Splits emerged among Democrats in the last Congress between traditional liberals and the newly elected more conservative Democrats, some who were pro-life, pro-gun, and pro-tax breaks. In the new Congress, 81 Democrats, or about a third of their caucus, come from districts that went for Bush in 2004 and have voters who lean conservative in their ideology, or are at best moderate.

The conservative Blue Dog Coalition will grow from the 49 Members it had in the last Congress. Blue Dogs are more fiscally conservative than mainstream Democrats. Balancing the budget and keeping spending down are their key issues. They are fiscal hawks.

The “New Democrat Coalition” has growing influence. They are pro-business Democrats protecting the high technology industries in their districts. They favor global economic expansion and more free trade agreements – in direct conflict with Democrats from traditional labor union Democratic districts.

Republican leaders are able to give their moderates greater leeway to vote as they deem necessary. When in the minority, protecting vulnerable incumbents trumps ideology. And, the moral issues which tend to rile the most conservative Republicans will not be Democratic priorities to raise in the new Congress.


Democrats are just short of the 60 votes needed to thwart filibusters -- at 58 or 59, they do not have enough to impose their agenda on the Senate as a whole. The Democratic majority will have to woo Republican moderates to their side to avoid having to compromise with the minority. Otherwise, bills will have to be negotiated or they may die due to filibusters.

The Senate as a whole is a more centrist institution than the more partisan House. Senators represent states – and far more people with more varied views than are in the average Congressional district. Because Senators have more disparate views to represent, this means their representative style is already more towards navigating down the middle

Senator Joe Lieberman, Ind-CT and Lamar Alexander, R-TN are leaders of an informal Centrist coalition. This is an important bipartisan voting bloc in the Senate attempting to promote centrist positions. They will retain influence in a Senate that must do the same to succeed. The coalition includes moderates such as:

Democrats Mary Landrieu (LA), Mark Pryor (AR), Tom Carper (DE), and Blanche Lincoln (AR) and Republicans Olympia Snowe, (ME), Susan Collins (ME), Lamar Alexander (TN) and Arlen Specter (PA).

Senate: Will it Remain Filibuster Proof?


Unchanged Congressional Dynamics

Legislating remains the art of the possible and not the art of the perfect.

Congress is not a think-tank. It does not decide issues on intellectual

substance alone. Policy development is always mitigated by political

realities.

Bills have to obtain a majority in the House, in the Senate, and get the

President’s approval to be enacted into law. It still takes all three.

Members of Congress are not free agents: they are tied to their

constituencies through the constitutional obligation to represent.

Except in times of national crisis, sweeping reforms are unlikely.

Incremental smaller changes are more the norm.

The hard political reality is that if Members do not accurately represent,

opposition research will highlight any vote that “harmed” the district or

state, making such votes the focus of powerful TV campaign ads.


Will the New Congress be More Productive than the

Last? In the average of national polls taken at the end of November, the Congress had an approval rating of 18%. The President’s was 26%. [www.realclearpolitics.com/polls]

The new Congress, with a new strong majority, will be expected to produce results.

The old Democratic majority falsely assumed they could prevail over President Bush simply because he had low approval ratings.

The new Democratic majority in Congress may falsely assume that President-Elect Obama’s agenda replicates their own.

In this new Congress, a necessary focus on issues surrounding rescue of the nation’s economy may take time, energy and money away from other domestic priorities.


Principles of Effective Influence:

Localize the issue whenever possible. Show the “real impact” on the district or state with facts, stats, and stories.

Personalize the issue whenever possible. Provide “real people” anecdotes.

Write op-eds or letters to the editor of the local paper, which Members do read!

Continue to support your Washington representatives, industry alliances, and pacs, BUT

Also take the responsibility to visit with Members and staff in their local and regional offices: they are less distracted at home; access is much easier than in D.C.

Take turns with your colleagues to deliver your core message by showing up during open office hours, local events and town meetings.

Develop relationships with staff. Provide useful information and data whenever possible. Any positive feedback that is possible will be appreciated, since criticism is the norm.

Avoid the temptation to e-mail just because it is easy. Personal visits, faxes, phone calls, and thoughtful letters are more effective.

Ilonanickels.com - 2008 Understanding the United States Congress January 5, 2009 Ilona Nickels...

Documents

Transcript of Ilonanickels.com - 2008 Understanding the United States Congress January 5, 2009 Ilona Nickels...