THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES 11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

The IISS Manama Dialogue

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES

11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMITBAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

The IISS Manama Dialogue

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES

11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMITBAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

The IISS Manama Dialogue

The International Institutefor Strategic StudiesArundel House | 13–15 Arundel Street | Temple Place | London | wc2r 3dx | UK

www.iiss.org

© February 2016 The International Institute for Strategic Studies

Director-General and Chief Executive Dr John ChipmanEditor Nicholas RedmanContributors Dana Allin; Nick Childs; Jessica Delaney; Mark Fitzpatrick; Bastian Giegerich; James Hackett; Matthew Harries; Emile HokayemArabic Editor Yusuf MubarakEditorial Dr Ayse AbdullahEditorial Research and Media James Howarth, Katharine SloweProduction and Design John Buck, Kelly Verity

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the institute.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre for research, infor-mation and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The Council and Staff of the Institute are international and its membership is drawn from over 90 countries. The Institute is independent and it alone decides what activities to conduct. It owes no allegiance to any government, any group of governments or any political or other organisation. The IISS stresses rigorous research with a forward-looking policy orientation and places particular emphasis on bringing new perspectives to the strategic debate.

3Contents

Contents

Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5

Chapter 1

Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7

Chapter 2

Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Chapter 3

Press coverage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Selected IISS publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

Chapter 4

Social media . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

4 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

HRH Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, Crown Prince, Deputy Supreme Commander and First Deputy Prime Minister, Kingdom of Bahrain

5Foreword

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is de-lighted to release and distribute this summary report of the proceedings of the IISS Manama Dialogue 2015: 11th Regional Security Summit, held from 30 October–1 November 2015.

This year’s conference marked the onset of the Dialogue’s second decade. It was attended by delegates from 49 coun-tries, with a considerable NGO presence. The audiences com-prised ministers, top officials, diplomats, political leaders and military and intelligence chiefs. Around the same time, Iran signed the P5+1 nuclear deal. The Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, continued to spread terror in and around its territories in Iraq and Syria, with the latter entering its fourth year of civil war. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia led a coalition to battle the Houthis in Yemen. President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi of Egypt delivered the keynote speech, in which he summed up the circumstances his country has undergone within the larg-er context of change that swept the Middle East. These factors immensely enriched discussions in the sessions that followed.

Discussions began by addressing the Middle East’s future while accounting for extremism, stability needs and devel-opment. Long-term US allies questioned possible changes in

Foreword

6 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

its regional security policy. Representatives of regional Arab states expressed their views towards post-nuclear-deal Iran. Audiences addressed the challenges of extremism, as well as managing conflict spillover into neighbouring nations.

Particular emphasis was given to several topics. These in-cluded the future of Yemen in and beyond the context of war; the Gulf states’ defensive measures with regard to the support and reaction of external powers; restoring stability to weak states shaken by conflict; and the role of political Islamism in fuelling extremist agendas and the countermeasures.

The critical regional climate was analysed in quality re-search by IISS experts. The Middle East chapter of the 2015 Strategic Survey was released during the event, providing a thorough overview of the year’s most important developments.

The Gulf and wider Middle East continue to witness se-rious developments. To review and highlight the challenges posed by political and military conflicts, the IISS Manama Dialogue will remain the ideal and only platform – proven by time – to bring insight through research to decision-makers in the region and beyond. To the Kingdom of Bahrain and its Foreign Ministry for their gracious and continued support, and to all government and non-government participants for their active participation, our gratitude remains profound.

Sir John Jenkins, KCMG LVO Executive Director, IISS-Middle East

11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMITBAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

The IISS Manama Dialogue

CHAPTER 1

Agenda

8 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, President of the Arab Republic of Egypt;

9Agenda

Friday 30 October 2015

All day Bilateral meetings between ministers and officials

19:00 – 20:00 SKY NEWS ARABIA OPENING TELEVISED PANEL - Al Ghazal IEXTREMISM, STABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: THE FUTURE OF THE MIDDLE EAST

Chair: Fadila SouissiPresenter, Sky News Arabia

Dr Abdullatif Al ZayaniSecretary General, Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf

Riyadh YaseenMinister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen

Dr Taïeb BaccoucheMinister of Foreign Affairs, Tunisia

Helen ClarkAdministrator, UN Development Programme

20:00 – 21:00 OPENING RECEPTION – Grand Foyer

21:00 – 23:00 OPENING DINNER – Al Noor BallroomHosted by: HRH Prince Salman bin Hamad Al KhalifaCrown Prince, Deputy Supreme Commander and First Deputy Prime Minister, Kingdom of Bahrain

Opening remarks: Dr John ChipmanDirector-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Keynote Speech: Abdel Fattah Al-SisiPresident of the Arab Republic of Egypt

Agenda

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Saturday 31 October 2015

Unless otherwise stated all Plenary Sessions chaired by Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

09:00 – 10:15 FIRST PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor BallroomUS POLICY AND REGIONAL SECURITY

Sh Khaled bin Ahmed Al KhalifaMinister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain

Antony BlinkenDeputy Secretary of State, US

10:15 – 10:45 Break

10:45 – 12:00 SECOND PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor BallroomTHE REGION AFTER THE NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS

Adel Al JubeirMinister of Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia

Dr Nabil El Araby Secretary General, League of Arab States

12:00 – 12:15 Break

12:15 – 13:45 THIRD PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor BallroomTHE CHALLENGES OF EXTREMISM

Chair: Sir John JenkinsExecutive Director, IISS-Middle East

Philip HammondSecretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK

Salahuddin RabbaniMinister of Foreign Affairs, Afghanistan

Dr Khaled KhojaPresident, National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces

13:45 – 16:00 PRIVATE LUNCH FOR DELEGATION LEADERSTrader Vic’s Restaurant

LUNCH FOR ALL OTHER DELEGATESVilla Gazebo, Ritz Carlton

16:00 – 17:15 FOURTH PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor BallroomCONFLICTS AND COALITIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Dr Ursula von der LeyenFederal Minister of Defence, Germany

Khaled Al ObeidiMinister of Defence, Iraq

19:30 – 21:00 RECEPTION AND DINNER – Villa Gazebo

11Agenda

Sunday 1 November 2015

09:30 – 11:00 SPECIAL SESSIONS – Al Ghazal Ballrooms

Group I: The future of Yemen – Al Ghazal III

Chair: Professor Toby DodgeConsulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS

Dr Abdullatif Al ZayaniSecretary General, Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

Riyadh YaseenMinister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen

Ismail Ould Cheikh AhmedSpecial Adviser to the Secretary General for Yemen, UN

Sir Alan DuncanSpecial Envoy to Yemen and Special Envoy to Oman, UK

Group II: GCC Defence Posture and External Powers – Al Ghazal I

Chair: General The Lord Richard of HerstmonceuxSenior Adviser for the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, IISS; former Chief of the Defence Staff, UK

Sh Thamer Al SabahPresident, National Security Bureau, Kuwait

General Lloyd James Austin IIICommander, US Central Command

HRH Prince Sultan bin Khaled Al FaisalPresident, Al Joshan Security Services

General Richard BarronsCommander, Joint Forces Command, Ministry of Defence, UK

Group III: Stablising Weak States – Al Ghazal II

Chair: Dr Nicholas RedmanDirector of Editorial, IISS

Dr Abdullah Al MatouqAdviser, Al Diwan Al Amiri, Kuwait; Humanitarian Envoy of the Secretary General, UN

Christian BergerDirector and Deputy Managing Director for Middle East and North Africa, European External Action Service

Farhat BengdaraSpecial Adviser to the Prime Minister, Libya

Emile HokayemSenior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS

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Group IV: The Role of Political Islamism – Al Ghazal C

Chair: Sir John JenkinsExecutive Director, IISS-Middle East

Hamadi JebaliFormer Prime Minster, Tunisia

Nabil FahmyDean, School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo; former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt

Dr Nelly LahoudSenior Fellow for Political Islamism, IISS (Designate)

11:00 – 11:30 Break

11:30 – 13:00 FIFTH PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor BallroomMANAGING CONFLICT SPILL-OVER

Nohad MachnoukMinister of the Interior and Municipalities, Lebanon

Crispin BluntChairman, Foreign Affairs Select Committee, House of Commons, UK

13:00 – 14:30 FAREWELL LUNCH FOR ALL DELEGATES – Villa Gazebo

11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMITBAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

The IISSManama Dialogue

CHAPTER 2

Executive summary

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Antony Blinken, Deputy Secretary of State, US

15Executive summary

The 2015 IISS Manama Dialogue, in common with the 2013 and 2014 Dialogues, opened with a panel debate moderated and televised by Sky News Arabia. The 2015 theme was ‘Ex-tremism, Stability, and Development: the future of the Middle East’. It brought together some familiar regional themes con-cerning the causes of the extremism and instability prevalent across the Middle East, but also explored the possibilities and challenges of a new, more holistic, approach to tackling them. The three Arab participants brought their different perspec-tives from across the region, while the former New Zealand Prime Minister, Helen Clark, now the Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), explored both the opportunities and potential problems arising from a developmental approach to dealing with the crises across the Middle East.

The debate opened with the question of how to tackle extremism more effectively, considering that much effort has already been expended, seemingly with little to show for it. The Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, insisted that what is happening does not reflect the will of the people of the region. He introduced

Executive summary

16 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

what was to become a broad theme in the discussion, that intervention from outside – and in particular the 2003 inva-sion of Iraq and its aftermath – had created a vacuum in which extremism had developed. Dr Al Zayani insisted that the per-sistence of the Israeli–Palestinian problem remained a key driver of extremism and had to be addressed. He also argued that extremism is not just a problem of Muslim youth con-tained within the region, but is now present across all regions.

For the Foreign Minister of Yemen, Riyadh Yaseen, the current problems in his country stem from a former head of state, an internal rebellion, and the involvement of an external power, Iran. He also argued that extremism now has taken on a different form from previous years, and compared to the challenges posed by al-Qaeda and Hizbullah, with new groups wanting to become major players. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tunisia, Dr Taïeb Baccouche, focused on the intervention in Libya as the catalyst for the problems in Tunisia’s neighbourhood, and the collapse of a central author-ity there. Dr Baccouche argued that new institutions need to be fostered quickly in Libya and elsewhere, or there will be growing extremist alliances through Africa involving groups

Opening Televised Panel (l–r): Riyadh Yaseen, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen; Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, Secretary General, Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf; Helen Clark, Administrator, UN Development Programme; Dr Taïeb Baccouche, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Tunisia; and Fadila Souissi, Presenter, Sky News Arabia

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17Executive summary

such as Boko Haram and al-Shabaab, with repercussions throughout the region and in Europe.

Clark addressed the role that development can play in combating these challenges. She argued that extremism in the form of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham is a twenty-first century phenomenon, drawing on technology to groom and recruit jihadists online; those seeking to counter the threat have not yet matched this level of sophistication. She under-scored the relevance of a sustainable development agenda, as inextricably linked with a peace agenda, and essential for the region with its burgeoning youth demographic. Clark stressed the importance of education but cautioned that it was equally important to ensure that a good education will lead to good job opportunities, otherwise it would become a source of frustration.

Turning to the Iran nuclear deal, Dr Al Zayani said that he hoped that the unfreezing of Iranian assets would lead to greater prosperity for the Iranian people, rather than increased meddling by Iran in the affairs of other states. Mr Yaseen con-trasted Iran’s intervention in Yemen, which he said had had no positive effect, with that of the GCC, which he welcomed.

(l–r): Riyadh Yaseen, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen; and Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, Secretary General, Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf

18 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Clark, taking up the theme of stabilising Yemen, said that the UNDP is already working on a long-term post-crisis needs assessment which should involve not just rebuilding key physical infrastructure, but also society.

Baccouche rejected the notion that Tunisia exports extremism and defended his government’s policy response to the threat of extremism, including the temporary closure of mosques, which he said had been taken over by militias. He acknowledged that this was controversial. Additional measures included religious education and monitoring of the internet, as well as efforts to improve the economy. Addressing the problem of extremism across the Maghreb, he made an implicit appeal for assistance by noting that technical capabilities were needed to properly control bor-ders, but argued that the heart of the problem was in Libya, not Tunisia.

In response to questions from the audience, Dr Al Zayani defended differing GCC approaches to counterterrorism, and highlighted the initiative of the late King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia in 2005 to create an international centre to combat terrorism with US$110 million in funding. One intervention

(l–r): Helen Clark, Administrator, UN Development Programme; and Dr Taïeb Baccouche, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Tunisia

19Executive summary

from the audience called on the Gulf Arab leaders to be more open to accepting constructive criticism and a freer press. But the GCC Secretary General insisted that Gulf Arab leaders are very accessible and that the media should raise its standards of accuracy.

Keynote SpeechThe President of the Arab Republic of Egypt, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, delivered the Keynote Address of the eleventh IISS Manama Dialogue. Focusing on the threats of terrorism and extremism, Al-Sisi warned that Middle Eastern states and the regional order were both at risk. He stressed that Arab nation-states are endangered by ‘foreign militias and organi-sations’ that challenge the foundations of modern govern-ance and authority. He bemoaned the weakening or collapse of the rule of law in several Arab countries and the emer-gence of ‘sectarian, religious, local and other conflicts’. As a result, individuals and groups are resorting to narrow iden-tities instead of seeking the protection of the state. In par-ticular, Al-Sisi denounced the manipulation of sectarianism by groups with specific political agendas that ran counter to

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

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20 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, President of the Arab Republic of Egypt

the cohesion of Arab societies and the authority of the state. This, he argued, has had a detrimental impact on the ‘role and prestige’ of the state.

Al-Sisi then condemned the hijacking of Arab uprisings by ‘certain currents employing religion for their own political purposes’, a clear reference to the Muslim Brotherhood. He lamented that ‘some believed that these currents were politi-cally moderate and able to contain the aspirations of their people and able to contain and channel the forces of extrem-ism and terrorism’. Al-Sisi claimed that [Islamist movements] ‘did not understand the history of Arab societies nor did [they] strive to achieve the aims of their revolutions’. These movements sought to monopolise politics and parted with the historical moderation of Arab societies, and quickly came closer to more extremist organisations. He also regretted that some outside ‘parties’ betted on their success, putting at risk Arab national security.

The state response to these challenges, Al-Sisi argued, should range beyond military confrontation and secu-rity arrangements: it is necessary to address the economic and social aspirations of citizens. He argued that a poor

Click to see video

21Executive summary

socio-economic situation adversely affects a population’s notion of the state and blurs the difference between state and government. ‘National security in the Arab world is so threat-ened that it now requires – demands – the protection of what remains of the states and their institutions, and the renewal of Arab citizens’ faith in the ability to live together in a state that is cognisant of their rights and has the ability to protect them,’ Al-Sisi emphasised.

Regionally, Al-Sisi reasserted Egypt’s commitment to the establishment of a Palestinian state within the June 1967 bor-ders and with East Jerusalem as capital. This, he said, would undercut the appeal of extremism. He also reaffirmed Egypt’s support for UN efforts to settle the Libyan crisis through the establishment of a national unity government that recognises the results of previous elections.

Regarding the Syrian conflict, Al-Sisi reiterated Egypt’s support for UN resolution efforts, and called for a political settlement that involved regional and international powers. He stressed the importance of pursuing the fight against terrorist groups in Syria. He noted Egypt’s efforts to create a unified vision among Syrian opposition forces, notably by hosting conferences and encouraging the adoption of a road map toward a negotiated political solution, without external interference. A Syrian settlement must be inclusive and pro-duce a healthy relationship between the state and its citizens, he said.

The president added that Egypt also supported the efforts of its Gulf allies to aid the government of Yemen against what he described as ‘the forces of terrorism and extremism.’ It is important, he said, to preserve the country’s cohesion and integrity. Al-Sisi concluded by emphasising Egypt’s readiness to contribute to the stability and prosperity of the region. He noted Egypt’s attachment to the principle of non-interference in the domestic affairs of sovereign states and welcomed international and regional cooperation based on this principle.

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First Plenary Session: US Policy and Regional SecurityDeputy Secretary of State Anthony Blinken led off the first plenary session, ‘US Policy and Regional Security,’ with a de-fence of US policy as the art of the possible. He derided the ‘now fashionable’ argument ‘that the United States is disen-gaged from the Middle East’. The challenges in the region ‘defy silver-bullet solutions’, he said, but in a ‘broader defini-tion of engagement’, using ‘all sources of American power’, including military power, the American commitment remains strong. To be sure, he added, the Obama administration still insists on heeding the ‘lessons we’ve learned over a decade of sacrifice about the effectiveness and sustainability of indefi-nite and undefined military interventions that have vast unin-tended consequences’.

Blinken defended the Iran nuclear deal, arguing that ‘after two years of negotiations, every single one of Iran’s pathways to a bomb is blocked … far into the future.’ But he also insisted that the administration harboured ‘no illusions’ about the agreement’s wider significance. The US remained focused on Iran’s support for terrorism and instigation of regional instability, and would meet those challenges with intensive security cooperation, including the linking up of missile-defence systems on the Arabian Peninsula, special-operations training, bolstered cyber secu-rity and sales of advanced military equipment to most of the Gulf Arab states.

Blinken coupled this security cooperation with an opti-mistic assessment of progress against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) by a coalition that ‘didn’t exist’ 14 months earlier. With the aid of more than 7,700 airstrikes, the coalition had forced ISIS ‘to change how it conducts military operations, impeded its command and control, confronted its propaganda machine, and deprived it of 30% of the territory in Iraq that it once held’.

The deputy secretary spoke against the backdrop of Russia’s recent intervention in Syria. He suggested that

23Executive summary

the ‘law of unintended consequences’ might recoil against Moscow: the intervention had ‘increased Russia’s leverage over Assad’, but it would also ‘increase the conflict’s leverage over Russia’. In Blinken’s optimistic interpretation, this would increase the Russian interest in a political solution, and the US was ready to work with Russia on common interests, includ-ing preserving Syrian unity and defeating ISIS. But the US would still insist on a ‘political transition that leads to [Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s] departure’.

Bahrain’s Foreign Minister, Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, in his address rejected the notion that the fight against ISIS should take precedence over a solution to the Syrian civil war ‘as outlined in the Geneva I Peace Conference’. The extremist group, he added, was a symptom not a cause of the Syrian crisis. ‘There are those who will say that we must defeat Daesh [ISIS] first, before any of this can take place, but Daesh can only be defeated by a unified Syrian front against it.’

The foreign minister insisted that ISIS was ‘not the only terrorist threat we face in the region’, and pointed to Iran’s continued support for terrorist groups including Hizbullah.

First Plenary Session

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In Bahrain, he said, Iran had ‘conducted smuggling operations to bring in explosives and weapons, including C4 Claymore mines and AK-47 assault rifles’. GCC states were ready to improve relations with Iran, but it would be difficult ‘when Iranian officials publicly boast about having captured four Arab capitals’. Just as Iran’s nuclear program was contained and ‘hopefully pacified’ by international action, there was a need for international unity and vigilance against the prob-lems ‘caused by Iran’s actions in the region’. In that regard, he defended the GCC intervention in Yemen to prevent ‘an extremist proxy movement with ties to Iran and Hizbullah’ from taking power.

Sheikh Khalid concluded by warning that recent violence in Jerusalem had the potential to ‘anger almost a third of the world’s population,’ and called on the Israeli government to live up to the agreement with Jordan on jurisdiction of the Al-Aqsa Mosque.

In the Q&A session that followed, Dr Albadr Al Shateri asked Sheikh Khalid whether he believed the nuclear deal had ‘emboldened’ Iran, and he challenged Deputy Secretary Blinken on whether the US, even if it remained focused on

Sh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain

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25Executive summary

‘strategic areas like the Gulf’, was in fact disengaging from the quest for a two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Sheikh Khalid said that, so far, he had not perceived any change in Iran’s behaviour in the region since the deal was announced. Blinken responded that cooperation between the US and Gulf Arab countries did embody ‘a clear vision’ of joint work to counter Iranian threats. He likewise insisted the US was fully committed to supporting a settlement of the Israel–Palestine conflict but noted that ‘we cannot want peace more than the parties themselves’.

Blinken’s assessment of Russian staying power and future conduct was also questioned pointedly by Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of the IISS, and Bloomberg columnist Josh Rogin. Blinken responded that Assad ‘can-not win and take back his country’, and so Russia will come to understand that there is no military solution to keep-ing him in power. He also noted, in response to comments suggesting that US military action against ISIS had been ineffective, that the group’s forward momentum in Iraq had been halted and that it controlled 30% less territory than a year ago.

Antony Blinken, Deputy Secretary of State, US

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Second Plenary Session: The Region after the Nuclear NegotiationsSaudi Arabia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Adel Al Jubeir, opened the second session on ‘The Region after the Nuclear Negotiations’ by welcoming the accord as a means of prevent-ing Iran from acquiring a nuclear capability. Yet the jury is out on whether the deal will have a positive impact by integrat-ing Iran with the region. It is Iran’s choice whether to use for productive or destructive purposes the funds freed up by the lifting of sanctions, he said.

Jubeir noted the remaining challenges associated with Syria, Iraq, Yemen and terrorism. He outlined each but, ‘as an optimist’, also described the opportunities presented by the region’s economic development and investment, youth and technology. On Syria, he said the just-concluded nine-hour meeting in Vienna, which included Iran for the first time, reached agreement on a number of issues: the importance of maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity and unity, the need for all ethnic and religious groups and minorities to enjoy pro-tection and rights, and new elections based on the Geneva I principles. The two fundamental issues on which the parties remained at odds concerned the timing of the departure of Assad and the timing and means of the withdrawal of foreign – particularly Iranian – forces. Regarding Yemen, Jubeir spoke positively about forces supporting the legitimate government having reclaimed most of the country and freed up ports for humanitarian assistance.

Dr Nabil El Araby, Secretary General of the Arab League, regretted that the Iran nuclear deal did not cover the whole Middle East and address Israel’s nuclear programme. Nor did the deal address any aspect of Iran’s intervention in Syria. Expanding on the Palestine issue, El Araby characterised the issue as a legal question of one party – Israel – needing to fulfill its obligations. He urged the international community to take responsibility for ending the conflict. Both in Palestine and in Syria, the Security Council has abjured its responsibility due

27Executive summary

to the veto system. El Araby recommended that the entire collective-security system of the UN be reviewed.

Dr Abdulaziz Sager, Chairman of the Gulf Research Center, asked about the preferred timing for Assad’s depar-ture. Ideally, this afternoon, Jubeir replied. The Saudis hope that Russian President Vladimir Putin used Assad’s visit to Moscow to persuade him it is time to accept a political tran-sition. Answering another question, Jubeir described the Vienna talks as productive because all issues were put on the table and there were no holds barred.

Frank Gardner, the BBC Security Correspondent, asked El Araby if he regretted the Arab League’s request in 2011 for inter-national military intervention in Libya. ‘No’ was the answer, because of the importance of helping Libya at the time. The mistake was the international community’s subsequent failure to follow up by helping build institutions and collect arms. In response to a question from Faisal Abbas, Editor-in-Chief of the English service of Al Arabiya News, El Araby said the call of the Arab League last March to establish a joint Arab military force was very important, and that some matters still needed to be discussed before the force could be declared ready.

Adel Al Jubeir, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia

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In a second round of the Q&A, Raghida Dergham, Executive Chairman of the Beirut Institute and Senior Diplomatic Correspondent of Al Hayat, asked about the muted 18–24-month timing of a political-transition period for Syria. Jubeir said the thinking is that an interim governing council could be in place in four to six months but that hold-ing an election in Syria might take 18 months. Meanwhile, Assad should leave at the beginning of this process.

Responding to questions about the US commitment to the Gulf region, Jubeir painted a positive picture: the number of US troops deployed there is almost at a record high and the decisions reached between the US and GCC states at Camp David with regard to intelligence sharing, cyber security, ballistic-missile defence and maritime patrols are all being implemented via ongoing working groups. He said America’s commitment to the security of Gulf countries is at an all-time high and that the ‘historic and strategic’ relationship in all areas has gone from strength to strength. The GCC states were regularly briefed about the nuclear negotiations by senior US officials. And Saudi Arabia has decided to open an embassy in Baghad and a consulate in Erbil.

Dr Nabil El Araby, Secretary General, League of Arab States

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Third Plenary Session: The Challenges of ExtremismThe third plenary session focused on ‘The Challenges of Ex-tremism’ in the region. Philip Hammond, the United King-dom’s Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, argued that the struggle against extremist Islamist terrorism was existential in the Gulf region, but affected the UK as well. Islamist extremism, the Secretary of State sug-gested, had deep roots and a wide reach because it was based on a corrupt interpretation of religion. The extreme doctrine espoused by ISIS sought to destroy nation states and replace them with its so-called caliphate, Hammond said. It was nec-essary, he argued, to defeat the group both militarily and ide-ologically, if a lasting victory was to be secured.

Thereafter Hammond dwelt on UK plans to tackle extrem-ism at home, through an approach based on four strands: countering the ideology of extremism, building social cohe-sion, supporting moderate mainstream voices and disrupting the extremists wherever they seek to operate. He conceded that the UK had pursued well-intended policies in the past that might inadvertently have nurtured the threat that now needed to be confronted.

Philip Hammond, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK

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Salahuddin Rabbani, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan, reminded the audience of his country’s long struggle against extremism. Now ISIS was trying to expand its base in the country. A network of terrorist organisations that included al-Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement also sought to destabilise Afghanistan. The country’s armed forces, he noted, still lack critical enablers and remain in need of inter-national support.

Rabbani argued it was of critical importance to strengthen efforts to counter extremist narratives. In Afghanistan, the government was open to peace talks with armed opponents, provided they were ready to renounce violence. He empha-sised that, in light of the regional and global dimensions of Afghanistan’s fight against extremism, it was vital that the international community stayed the course. Otherwise the hard-earned gains of recent years could be lost.

Dr Khaled Khoja, President of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, insisted that the principal cause of extremism in Syria was the government’s heavy military response to demands for change. The Syrian

Salahuddin Rabbani, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Afghanistan

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31Executive summary

regime, Khoja argued, undertook steps to attract or at least enable extremists in Syria to bolster its narrative that the government was fighting terrorism rather than a legitimate uprising. As a result of the fighting, Syrian national identity had been destroyed, with the country divided along ethnic and sectarian lines.

Khoja stated that the failure of the international commu-nity to protect civilians in Syria amounted to a regional and global failure. A new national project to unite the country is needed, he argued, and the opposition must fight extrem-ism, protect civilians, establish basic governance and deliver rudimentary services. In Khoja’s view, Iranian and Russian meddling in the crisis made this even more difficult to achieve.

In the ensuing debate, Khoja suggested that Ba’ath party affiliates were actively involved in ISIS. He reminded the audience of the importance of building grassroots support to create a new future for Syria. Kwon Hee-seog, Director-General, African and Middle Eastern Affairs Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea, focused his question on Afghanistan and enquired about the possibility of involving elders in counter-extremism policies. Rabbani

Dr Khaled Khoja, President, National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces

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32 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

responded that jirgas were an important tool for addressing extremism and that Afghans could draw on their country’s heritage of tolerance.

Many questions were addressed to Hammond, and regarded the UK’s counter-extremism strategy. Walid Abukhaled, Chief Executive for Saudi Arabia, Northrop Grumman Corporation, asked whether the UK risked giving the impression that it was fighting Islam. Hammond said there was a clear distinction between Islam and extremism – but also that policymakers could not effectively tackle the latter if the failed to acknowledge the link to Islam and the religious author-ity that extremists claimed for themselves. He went on to stress the importance of disrupting the flow of money and fighters from the UK to Syria and on developing convincing counter- narratives that would combat ISIS ideologically. Dr Hisham Hellyer, Non-Resident Fellow at the Brookings Institute, asked whether the UK strategy’s provisions for revoking the British citizenship of extremists might undermine societal cohesion. Hammond responded that the provision applied to dual nationals who attacked the values which British society was based on; it was an important tool for the government, he insisted.

Fourth Plenary Session: Conflicts and Coalitions in the Middle EastThe fourth plenary, entitled ‘Conflicts and Coalitions in the Middle East’, distilled the 2015 Dialogue’s prevailing mood, urging collective action at the same time as acknowledging the difficulties of choosing both partners and targets. The session’s keynote speakers were drawn from a country play-ing host to some of the region’s most virulent conflicts, and another dragged headlong into a common cause with it by the side effects of Middle East turmoil. The latter, Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Federal Minister of Defence of Germany, put the predicament bluntly: ‘we have too many violent con-flicts, and we have far too few coalitions to stop or control

33Executive summary

them … The regional order seems to be collapsing.’ Yet, as she and others pointed out, there is much to unite both re-gional states as a group and extra-regional parties with those in the Middle East.

Europe, said Von der Leyen, shares three core inter-ests with the states of the Middle East: fighting terrorism; reinstating order, economic development and stability; and providing the people of the region with a viable future. Yet shared interests have not easily led to common action, however, and there are dangers in conflating similar but separate problems.

Khaled Al Obeidi, Minister of Defence of Iraq, warned against defining the problems to be solved in Iraq and Syria in the same way, pointing to the Iraqi constitution, parliamen-tary system and elected national government as differentiating political characteristics.

Opening the debate, Von der Leyen insisted that for Europe indifference to the Syria conflict was not an option, saying Europeans ‘are not simply spectators’. Referring to the wave of refugees entering Europe, she stated emphatically that Germany, as a matter of its constitutional identity, would

Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Federal Minister of Defence, Germany

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not ‘slam the door’. Yet, as South Korean Ambassador for National Security Affairs Lee Chung Min noted, the political task of maintaining a consensus for fighting ISIS while accept-ing the costs of accepting refugees is not an easy one. Von der Leyen stressed the need for a collective approach from the European Union, an institution created to solve problems that member states could not solve individually. ‘Solidarity’, said Von der Leyen, ‘means that, in tough times, we share bur-dens’. She identified a quid pro quo: European states receive people fleeing for their lives, and invest in their education and integration; those people contribute to their country of refuge, and one day, after the return of peace, again contribute to their country of origin.

The complexities of the military response to ISIS pre-occupied the keynote speakers and many participants from the floor. Al Obeidi’s prescription was clear: military action against ISIS would have to come first, only then to be followed by non-military efforts. But questioners were unwilling to conceive of military action as inherently apo-litical. The IISS’s Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare, and Bloomberg’s Josh Rogin both pressed the minister on the question of Iranian influence: does the Iraqi govern-ment control Iranian-backed popular militias, or is it the other way around? Al Obeidi answered by distinguishing between the government-controlled Popular Mobilisation Forces, an institution answering to the Iraqi prime minister, with an independent budget, working often in combina-tion with the regular Iraqi armed forces – and other ‘illegal’ armed militias.

The regular Iraqi armed forces are themselves under considerable strain. Al Obeidi noted that they had suf-fered a significant setback in the summer of 2014 under the advance of ISIS, and were not helped by the financial pres-sure of a collapse in the price of oil. Iraq’s military needs help, he declared, from regional and international partners. Nor will it be easy, as Al Obeidi conceded in response to a

35Executive summary

question from IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East Toby Dodge, to push forward the development of the Iraqi National Guard.

For Von der Leyen, the Middle East today demands ‘a new partnership of dedication’: joint political will, an under-standing of whom to fight and whom to protect, and an effort to foster development. The difficulties in such an approach are well known; one, as a number of participants pointed out, is the challenge of addressing the regional deficit of inclusive governance. But the Manama Dialogue was presented by Al Obeidi with a specific call to action: a defence dialogue between the Gulf’s armies and national institutions, with the aim of building a common strategy. This would range from information exchange and joint exercises to the theatre of operations itself; its outputs could include strategies for the administration of borders and shared waters, a common approach to displaced persons and refugees, and post-con-flict reconstruction. ‘An anti-terrorism agreement among the Gulf’s coastal states’, Al Obeidi concluded, ‘would be a fundamental pillar of defensive arrangements for the entire Middle East’.

Khaled Al Obeidi, Minister of Defence, Iraq

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Fifth Plenary Session: Managing Conflict SpilloverNohad Machnouk, Minister of the Interior and Municipali-ties of Lebanon — a state that has suffered greatly as a re-sult of the Syrian conflict — spoke first in the fifth plenary session, titled ‘Managing Conflict Spillover’. He surveyed the local, regional and international conflicts that beset Lebanon: the Arab–Israeli struggle; Iranian regional meddling; and the threat of ‘extremist takfiri’ groups such as ISIS. Previously, he said, extremist groups operated in secret. Today, they pro-duce oil, mint coins and control territory.

Machnouk expressed the hope that, as other powers had abandoned Syria, Russia would be able to help craft a political settlement, but he acknowledged that the chances were slim. Lebanon’s government, he said, had succeeded in limiting the impact of the Syrian conflict on Lebanese territory by achieving national solidarity and greater coordination among security agencies, and by promoting moderation in political and reli-gious discourse. The government has extended its authority across national territory, ending the effects of war in northern Lebanon, Machnouk said. However, efforts to extend this into territory controlled by Hizbullah have been frustrated.

(l–r): Nohad Machnouk, Minister of the Interior and Municipalities, Lebanon; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; and Crispin Blunt, Chairman, Foreign Affairs Select Committee, House of Commons, UK

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37Executive summary

In Lebanon today, there is one refugee for every three citizens, the minister noted, and the country has welcomed and incorporated them despite the huge challenges. He noted, however, that Hizbullah’s involvement in the Syrian war had provoked a reaction in Lebanon in support of the Syrian revo-lution, and with it the growth of extremist cells in Lebanon.

Two themes permeated the minister’s address; the first was moderation. He noted that Lebanon sorely needed a head of state after almost two years without one, and called on all those present to desist from pressing for a change in the constitutional arrangement that reserves the presidency for a Christian — in times of extremism in the Arab world, this dispensation is more necessary than ever, he argued. Moderation is also integral to more effective management of the region’s political, security and economic problems, according to Machnouk. He noted that it was the tribes of Iraq that defeated al-Qaeda, and that ISIS only took control of parts of the country after sectarian actors had marginalised them and divided society.

The second theme was regional and international coop-eration. Arab states must not retreat into unilateralism, but should rather create a solid strategic alliance. Operation Decisive Storm in Yemen is a good example of cooperation, and without it there would have been no progress in the conflict. Likewise, extra-regional states should focus on solving the Syrian conflict, he added, arguing that this was a better use of their resources than squabbling over how many refugees each European state might receive.

Crispin Blunt, Chairman of the UK House of Commons’ Foreign Affairs Committee, began by noting that the session title did not do justice to the ‘death, destitution and displace-ment borne by the millions’ in the region. He noted the role of Britain and other external powers in laying the foundation for many contemporary conflicts in the region, and their imper-fect response to the Arab spring, ‘which has turned to winter without a hint of summer or autumn in between’.

38 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Blunt noted that America’s will to intervene in the region is limited, and that there is no superpower ready and willing to take up its burden. Thus the time has come, he argued, for regional powers – Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt – to come of age. These states must become a P4, to give regional problems the consistent attention that the five permanent members of the UN Security Council cannot.

The rest of Blunt’s remarks focused on the principal form of conflict spillover: displacement. All refugees should have been accommodated in neighbouring countries, assisted properly by the whole international community, he said. The developed world failed to give Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon the support they were entitled to, and now it has suffered the consequences of inaction in the form of Europe’s refugee crisis.

On that point too, Blunt felt serious errors had been made. The EU failed to show solidarity with its front-line, southern member states, who struggled without support. Thereafter, Germany’s ‘entirely decent human response’, opening its borders to refugees, encouraged millions more — not only from Syria, but many afflicted countries — to try their luck in Europe. The correct policy now, he said, was to take the

Nohad Machnouk, Minister of the Interior and Municipalities, Lebanon

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39Executive summary

pressure off refugee camps in the region, by moving the most deserving people to Europe, but doing so in a way that did not encourage broader population movement. At the outset of the Syrian conflict, the focus should have been on giving peo-ple hope that they could return home in a reasonable space of time. If fragile and conflict-torn states lose their best and brightest people, they will have more difficulty in building institutions and economies that are resistant to conflict.

Special Session 1: The Future of YemenThe first special session considered ‘The Future of Yemen’ and the challenges of ending the civil war in the country. In keep-ing with other conflicts in the region, re-establishing stability in Yemen has security and economic implications beyond its border. This is in part the reason why the Saudi-led coalition intervened to support the faltering government of Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, which teetered on the brink of collapse in the face of an offensive by Houthi rebels and forces loyal to the former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh. The coalition states have also been concerned by Iran’s provision of military sup-port to the insurgents, which has included arms shipments.

Crispin Blunt, Chairman, Foreign Affairs Select Committee, House ofCommons, UK

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40 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

While the fighting in the Yemen involves the major regional powers, directly or indirectly, it should not be viewed primar-ily as a proxy war, nor indeed as a classic sectarian conflict, suggested some long-term observers. Rather, they argued, it ought to be viewed as a tribal power play.

The Arab intervention force led by Saudi Arabia is pur-suing a multi-faceted approach, it was argued. In parallel to the military campaign, which has the ultimate aim of liberat-ing territory under the control of the Houthis, there is also the intent to relaunch a political process. The hoped-for end of the conflict will also require a considerable reconstruction effort, with the north and the south of the country a particular focus. These areas have been central to the insurgency.

A key element of any solution will be UN Security Council Resolution 2216, which the Houthis and other opposition leaders indicated they would accept. This paved the way for agreeing a further round of peace talks, the agenda, date and format of which were under discussion as the Manama Dialogue was taking place. To have any chance of success, some contend, the primary focus of all involved must shift from the military to the political arena. Full inclusivity is

(l–r): Professor Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS; and Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, Secretary General, Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

41Executive summary

also a pre-requisite for the talks’ success, while the Houthis need to negotiate in good faith. Within the Hadi government there remains mistrust of the Houthis and Saleh. Given this, there is also a keen interest in rebuilding the military and the security institutions. UNSCR 2216 includes a provision for deploying observers or peace-keeping forces if this is deemed necessary.

One option, floated by some as potentially addressing the concerns of all involved parties, is the creation of a federal Yemen, based on six regions. This could provide a level of autonomy to those areas now at the heart of the insurgency.

Special Session 2: GCC Defence Posture and External PowersThe second special session, titled ‘GCC Defence Posture and External Powers‘, was convened at a time when GCC member states were on active military operations in Yemen and over Syria. The session provided an opportunity to reflect on the current state and future trajectory of regional military cooper-ation, as well as the requirements of GCC defence forces and the role of external powers.

(l–r): Riyadh Yaseen, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen; Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, Special Adviser to the Secretary General for Yemen, UN; and Sir Alan Duncan, Special Envoy to Yemen and Special Envoy to Oman, UK

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The region faces significant security challenges from rising extremism, the presence of armed militias and Iran. Growing instability across the region has multiple causes, including the aftermath of the invasion of Iraq, security crises follow-ing the Arab Spring, rising sectarian strife, and inattention and incapacity on the part of the international community. The imperatives for cooperation were greater than they were before, it was argued.

The history of GCC military cooperation was outlined, as was that of external powers’ military involvement in the region. Indeed, it was argued that the confluence of rising security threats, and a relative decline in international military attention had led regional states to take action themselves. These new activities involved increased military coopera-tion. Within the GCC, there was a convergence of interests that afforded an opportunity to strengthen the ties, including defence relationships, between nations.

Yemen, one participant said, was a crucible for future cooperation. These operations would allow the region’s forces to consider areas requiring improvement. The new GCC Joint Military Command, agreed in late 2014, would

(l–r): General Richard Barrons, Commander, Joint Forces Command, Ministry of Defence, UK; and HRH Prince Sultan bin Khaled Al Faisal, President, Al Joshan Security Services

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build on the coordination and cooperation seen in the Peninsula Shield Force.

Growing defence cooperation, through organisational changes and military operations, was leading GCC states to reconsider defence and military strategies. There was increasing security and intelligence cooperation, and states were looking to improve the efficiency of their defence forces by enhanc-ing training at all levels, unifying command-and-control, and developing organisational and equipment inter-operability.

External powers could help in this process. With long-standing experience of working in coalitions, and through NATO, both the UK and US could bring this knowledge to bear in helping GCC states develop their joint-operational capability. Meanwhile, assistance, in the form of training and other support – or procurements – was designed to build capability and empower local forces, and could help boost the inter-operability of armed forces. Indeed, growing inter-operability was already evident: on the first night of coalition air operations against ISIS over Syria, five Middle Eastern air forces took part, and four were able to use munitions. The significant political and military commitments in the region

(l–r): General The Lord Richard of Herstmonceux, Senior Adviser for the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, IISS; former Chief of the Defence Staff, UK; Sh Thamer Al Sabah, President, National Security Bureau, Kuwait; and General Lloyd James Austin III, Commander, US Central Command

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by outside powers showed that security in the region was important to them; indeed, for some, Gulf security was indis-tinguishable from their own security.

Special Session 3: Stabilising Weak StatesThe third session, ‘Stabilising Weak States’, addressed a topic – state fragility, failure and weakness – that permeated nearly all discussions at the Dialogue. While state weakness and fra-gility is a global phenomenon, with no region unaffected, it is a particular problem in the Middle East. The cases of Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Libya stand out.

Panellists agreed that there was a close relationship between the failings of the state and the incidence of conflict, which can become a vicious spiral as deprivation and inse-curity fuel further violence. In Syria, 5.6m young people lack access to education. The Gadhafi regime in Libya was toppled without any plan for replacing it. International support was insufficient, and thereafter regional states pursued narrow agendas and interfered with the state-building process, pre-venting the authorities from developing the mechanisms to stabilise a tribal society. Militias filled the void, and the lack

(l–r) Dr Nicholas Redman, Director of Editorial, IISS; and Dr Abdullah Al Matouq, Adviser, Al Diwan Al Amiri, Kuwait; Humanitarian Envoy of the Secretary General, UN

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of economic opportunity has facilitated recruitment by armed groups. Development is the solution.

A large part of the discussion focused on relief efforts. Bahrain coordinates the Arab response to Syria’s humanitar-ian disaster and the EU is engaged with relief, development efforts and conflict-resolution initiatives that have gained little traction. Numerous proposals for improving policy responses were made, including sustained development efforts con-ducted alongside relief initiatives, to break the cycle of state weakness, insecurity and conflict; better coordination between host governments and international agencies delivering aid and development; and a detailed, bottom-up understanding of the drivers of weakness and fragility.

The session also considered political settlements in Libya and Syria. A common element was the need to recognise and accommodate centrifugal forces through decentralisation, fed-eration or de facto partition. In Syria, the areas controlled by the Kurds, ISIS and the regime are to varying extents considered to be economically and political viable, and militarily defendable, although the positive prospects for each would lessen if allied support waned or the military threats to them increased.

(l–r) Christian Berger, Director and Deputy Managing Director for Middle East and North Africa, European External Action Service; Farhat Bengdara, Special Adviser to the Prime Minister, Libya; and Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS

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Special Session 4: The Role of Political IslamismThe fourth session, ‘The Role of Political Islamism’, focused on two sources of tension: between the concepts of Islam as a faith versus Islam as political ideology, and between the modern nation state and the absolutist nature of political Islamism. Participants were divided in their definitions of ‘political Islamism’, and only agreed that there were myriad interpretations of it. But examples of parties whose political programme, were founded on Islamic teachings included the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and an-Nahda. These organisa-tions had adapted their ideologies to the secular political pro-cess and contested elections.

The concept of political Islamism had not been applied suc-cessfully to the governance of a nation state. It was suggested that this was because it allowed little room for pluralism and had failed to win the hearts of the population beyond its tradi-tional support base. One panellist suggested that, rather than being preoccupied by questions of ideology, most individu-als were instead focused on more parochial issues, such as money, their health and social services. It was not for the state to restrict each citizen’s right to pursue their faith.

(l–r): Sir John Jenkins, Executive Director, IISS-Middle East; and Hamadi Jebali, Former Prime Minister, Tunisia

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It was argued that one of the failings of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood was that it had considered the country to be part of an overarching Muslim Brotherhood movement, rather than regarding itself as part of the fabric of the Egyptian nation. If political Islamist parties were to have any success in government in the future, they needed to be more pragmatic in embracing pluralism; non-Islamist actors, meanwhile, needed to develop inclusive systems of government.

The rise of ISIS and its establishment of a ‘caliphate’ added a further layer of complexity to debates about the relation-ship between the state and political Islamism. However, it was pointed out that jihadists regarded the political process as incompatible with their endeavours. Any adherent of their extremist ideology who attempted to form a political party could not consider themselves a true jihadist.

The need to improve social conditions for the region’s young people was a common theme of the Dialogue, and the subject was raised once again in this session. Panellists agreed that economic and social change would have a positive effect – the imperative was to encourage critical thinking and to counter the appeal of absolutist ideology.

(l–r): Nabil Fahmy, Dean, School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo; former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt; and Dr Nelly Lahoud, Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, IISS (Designate)

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11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMITBAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

The IISS Manama Dialogue

CHAPTER 3

Press coverageSelected IISS publications

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Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Federal Minister of Defence, Germany

51Press coverage

New York Times31 October 2015

Discordant Verdicts on US Forces in Syria: Too Much, or Too Little

By Peter Baker and Eric Schmitt

WASHINGTON – President Obama’s decision to send a small team of United States commandos into Syria as part of the broader war against the Islamic State has raised new questions about his military strategy, its legal founda-tion and the way it has been sold to the American public.

After years in which Mr Obama re-jected ‘boots on the ground’, the deploy-ment of up to 50 Special Operations troops to northern Syria is a relatively

modest commitment. But coupled with the 3,500 troops now stationed next door in Iraq, it reflects continuing im-provisation in a war that has bedev-iled Mr Obama and tested the limits of American interests in the region.

The administration made the deci-sion after abandoning the Pentagon’s failed efforts to train its own rebel army to take on the Islamic State in Syria, and it underscored a shift toward reliance on Kurdish allies, the most effective forces working with the United States. In effect, the move is an experiment: can the small contingent of American military person-nel make a difference in guiding local fighters? If so, officials made it clear they would consider sending more Ameri-cans. (A covert train-and-equip effort run by the CIA is still very much active.)

The first test is likely to come in Raqqa, the Islamic State’s stronghold in Syria. American officials hope the com-mandos will help the Kurds and Syrian

Press coverage

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Arab allies put pressure on the Islamic State, which is also known as ISIS, ISIL or Daesh, by cutting off routes into the city and targeting leaders. Eventually, they would try to recapture the city outright.

‘Ultimately, Raqqa has to be retaken and returned to its citizens and to a de-cent way of life, which they’re not enjoy-ing under the barbaric rule of ISIL now’, Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter told reporters during a refueling stop in Alaska on his way to Asia.

But critics on both sides of the ideo-logical spectrum said the president’s de-cision reflected a tactical shift rather than a comprehensive strategy. Republicans belittled it as a paltry move that would not change the dynamics on the ground, especially with Russia now actively in-volved in the war. Across the aisle, some Democrats expressed distress that Mr Obama was taking the United States deeper into a fratricidal conflict.

Senator John McCain, the hawk-ish Arizona Republican who has long pressed for more assertive action in the Middle East, dismissed the deployment as insufficient. ‘Such grudging incre-mentalism is woefully inadequate to the scale of the challenge we face’, he said.

Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, the newly installed House speaker, saw it as just more piece-meal response. ‘This commitment of US forces must come with a coherent strategy to defeat ISIL,’ he said. ‘Oth-erwise, we are likely to see the same results in the region.’

The move drew support from a hand-ful of leading Democrats but skepticism from others. The top Democrats on the

House Armed Services and Foreign Af-fairs Committees backed it. ‘This is a nar-row, limited, advise-and-assist effort that will help to loosen ISIS’ grip on territory in Syria and support our partners on the ground’, said Representative Eliot L. En-gel of New York, the ranking Democrat on the Foreign Affairs Committee.

Liberal lawmakers bemoaned what they saw as a slide further into war. ‘Sending American Special Forces into Syria is a major shift in policy that puts the United States on a potentially danger-ous downward slope into a civil war with no end in sight’, said Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut.

Administration officials rejected that view. They said the deployment was in keeping with Mr Obama’s policy of working with local forces to counter the Islamic State and was not a broader inter-vention, even though Mr Obama contin-ues to press for the resignation of the Syr-ian president, Bashar al-Assad, through talks led by Secretary of State John Kerry.

‘It is not a decision to enter into Syr-ia’s civil war’, Mr Kerry told reporters during a stop in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, after leaving Vienna, where he met with other diplomats to seek a cease-fire and political transition in Syria. ‘It is not an action or a choice focused on Assad. It focused exclusively on Daesh and on augmenting our ability to be able to more rapidly attack Daesh.’

The reviews from the region were mixed. At a security conference in Ma-nama, Bahrain, on Saturday, senior Arab officials and analysts said the plan would fail to defeat the Islamic State or remove Mr Assad.

53Press coverage

Iraq’s defense minister, Khaled al-Obeidi, greeted with caution Mr Oba-ma’s instruction to advisers to consult Iraqi officials about establishing a Spe-cial Operations task force to help target Islamic State leaders there.

‘Any such operations would need to be coordinated with the Iraqi govern-ment’, Mr Obeidi said in a brief interview.

And Adel al-Jubeir, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister and a former ambas-sador to Washington, praised the de-ployment of Special Operations troops to Syria. ‘Anything that is done on the ground is going to be much more effec-tive than anything from the air’, he said in an interview after his speech to the conference. ‘I think this is a big step.’

But Mr Jubeir also said the United States needed to widen its goal from sim-ply countering the Islamic State to target-ing Mr Assad, as well. ‘Any attempts to go after Daesh in Syria without dealing with the root cause, which is Bashar al-Assad, are doomed to failure’, he said.

Saying Mr Assad had become a mag-net for extremists, Mr Jubeir added, ‘Ul-timately, Daesh will be defeated when Assad is removed.’

Emile Hokayem, a Middle East analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which organized the security conference, said the latest American effort came up short. ‘It’s part of the administration’s gradual but still hesitant approach to the bigger issue’, he said. ‘Assad is still the main cause of the death and destruction in Syria.’

Antony J. Blinken, the deputy sec-retary of state, who is attending the conference, pushed back against the

skeptics, citing both increased military assistance to combat the Islamic State and the diplomatic initiative Mr Kerry is leading to remove Mr Assad. ‘We are intensifying our efforts on all fronts’, Mr Blinken told reporters.

He added that deploying comman-dos to Syria and strengthening air pow-er to support Syrian rebels in the north-east would help them ultimately prevail and, with other moderate rebel groups, have greater influence later in a political transition that would remove Mr Assad.

In Washington, though, some law-makers said the Obama administra-tion was not being honest about the ultimate costs of the war, and about the fact that American troops are increas-ingly being drawn into combat even though the White House insists it is not a combat mission.

Democrats also questioned the legal basis for the intervention and called on Congress to pass a new authorization for military action. Mr Obama has sent a draft of such an authorization, but Con-gress is deeply divided over it and has not taken it up.

The administration argues that it can send forces into Syria under the authority of legislation passed by Con-gress in 2001, targeting Al Qaeda, after the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington. Unlike Iraq, Syria has not invited in American troops, but the ad-ministration argues that it can take ac-tion in Syria in defense of Iraq, an ally that has been attacked by Islamic State forces based in Syria.

© 2015, New York TimesReprinted with permission

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Economist31 October 2015

Iran Joins Talks in Vienna about the Syrian Civil War

The main result was that none of the parties walked out

IT COULD have been worse. That was more or less the read-out after talks on Syria in Vienna on October 30th between allies and foes of President Bashar al-Assad including America, Saudi Arabia, Russia and, for the first time, Iran. No one walked out, even though Iran backs Mr Assad and Saudi Arabia is one of the main backers of anti-Assad rebel groups, as well as Iran’s chief rival in the region.

At first glance the nine-point state-ment put out at the end looks good, too. It pledges to work for a ceasefire and commits the parties to an UN-led tran-sition in which Syrians, including the diaspora, elect their leaders. The powers will meet again within two weeks’ time to discuss it further.

Yet no party hid the fact that there was no agreement on the fate of Mr Assad, one of the main points of contention. Speak-ing at a security conference in Bahrain organised by IISS, a British think-tank, Adel al-Jubair, the Saudi foreign minis-ter, restated the Saudi belief that peace could not be achieved as long as Mr As-sad stayed in power: ‘He should leave this afternoon. The sooner the better.’ He also insisted that Iranian forces would have to be withdrawn as part of any agreement.

If progress is not made, he said Saudi Arabia will step up support for ‘moder-ate’ rebels, including the delivery of more lethal weapons – though he did not spell out what those might be.

Of late America had appeared to modify its position on Mr Assad by say-ing he could stay for six months rather than requiring that he step down before any transition begins. It sounded like a compromise had been made when re-ports circulated that Iran had agreed to a limitation of six months for Mr Assad.

Yet Iran quickly contradicted the news, denying that it had agreed to any time-frame, stressing that only the Syr-ian people could decide – the line Iran and Russia have long stuck to. Iran and Russia would like to see early polls, de-spite Mr Assad’s having been ‘elected’ to a seven-year term in 2014. They are convinced that he would win, without any of the rigging or gerrymandering that tends to accompany Syrian ballots. Holding any election in war-torn Syria will be fraught with difficulty, of course. To be accepted as credible, the millions of Syrians who have fled the country would have to be persuaded to vote.

Although all the powers, parties to Syria’s war and otherwise (with the po-tential exception of Russia) seem more united now in the desire to end the four-and-a-half-year conflict, it is apparent that that is not at any cost. The refugee crisis has worsened, both in the region and for those trekking to Europe, not least since Russia intervened. All are worried about Islamic State (IS).

Yet both Russia and Iran do not like the idea of regime change, fearful of it

55Press coverage

on their own turf. Russia wants to assert its role as a global power. Iran’s red line is maintaining a route to ship weapons to Hizbullah, its proxy in Lebanon.

Despite its nuclear deal with Amer-ica, Iran remains suspicious of the Great Satan. Many Iranian officials say America is only pretending to fight IS, pointing to the slow progress of the coa-lition, and instead prefers keeping them on hand as a tool with which to threaten the Islamic Republic. Having given up its nuclear card for now, Iran may be more rather than less obstinate on Syria.

Meanwhile, on the same day, America revealed it was sending up to 50 special-forces troops into northern Syria to help with a planned offensive against Islamic State (IS) in their stronghold to the east. Russia criticised their deployment, argu-ing it will turn the Syrian conflict into a proxy war. America has upped its game since Russia waded into Syria in Septem-ber. Earlier in October America said it had dropped supplies to rebels in the north and has emphasised that it will increase its support to the groups it backs.

In any case, much of what ended up in the statement repeats points made in UN talks back in 2012. Since then the war has got far bloodier, with the death toll at over 250,000 and some 11m people displaced within and without the country’s borders. And as many Syrians have pointed out, neither the Syrian regime nor the frag-mented opposition were invited to the talks. It will be a long time before the guns fall silent, but getting so many of the par-ties in one room might be a start.

© 2015, EconomistReprinted with permission

Washington Post31 October 2015

US Pledges Nearly $100 million to Support Syrian Opposition as Anti-ISIS Offensive Begins

By John Davison

BEIRUT – A newly formed US-backed Syrian rebel alliance launched an of-fensive against the Islamic State in the northeast province of Hasakah on Satur-day, a day after the United States said it would send Special Operations forces to advise insurgents fighting the jihadists.

It was the first declared operation by the Democratic Forces of Syria since the alliance of a US-backed Kurdish militia and several Syrian Arab rebel groups announced its formation last month.

Fighting in Hasakah had begun after midnight, a spokesman for the alliance said. A group monitoring the war re-ported fighting and coalition airstrikes in the area. The campaign would ‘con-tinue until all occupied areas in Ha-sakah are freed from Daesh’, a spokes-man for the alliance’s general command said in the video, using an Arabic name for the Islamic State. He urged residents to stay away from militant-controlled areas of Hasakah.

The US decision to station a force of up to 50 military advisers in Syria comes after it dropped ammunition to rebel groups in northern Syria several weeks

56 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

ago. Washington’s strategy in Syria has shifted from trying to train fighters out-side the country to supplying groups headed by US-vetted commanders.

Meanwhile, the United States ramped up its support for the opposi-tion on Saturday with a pledge of nearly $100 million in fresh aid. The new US funds will support local and provincial councils, civil society activists, emer-gency services and other needs on the ground inside Syria.

The US promise of cash, which American officials say brings to nearly $500 million the amount pledged to the opposition since 2012, coincided with the completion of international talks to pursue a new peace effort involv-ing Syria’s Iranian-backed government and opposition groups. World powers and regional rivals convened in Vienna to seek a solution to the 4 1/2-year-old conflict in Syria that has escalated since Russia intervened a month ago with an intense air campaign.

The negotiations left open the thorny question of when Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad might leave power, and it was unclear whether he or disparate rebel groups fighting to topple him would sign on to any peace proposal. A new round of talks was expected to take place within two weeks.

Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the additional $100 million in US assistance on Saturday at the Manama Dialogue security confer-ence in Bahrain.

Blinken suggested that Russia’s military intervention in Syria, although widely seen as a strong sign of support

for Assad, could end up incentivizing Moscow to work toward a political tran-sition that removes him from power.

‘Russia cannot afford to sustain its military onslaught against everyone op-posed to Assad’s brutal rule. The costs will mount every day in economic, po-litical and security terms – but at best only to prevent Assad from losing,’ Blinken said. He predicted a ‘quagmire’ that draws Russia deeper into a conflict alongside Syria’s allies Iran and the Shi-ite militant group Hezbollah, and that alienates Sunni Muslims both in the re-gion and in Russia itself.

The decision to send US troops to Syria comes a month after Russia began launching airstrikes against insurgents in the country. Russia has come under criticism for airstrikes that seemed to be randomly targeting any opposition to the Assad regime.

On Saturday, the Britain-based Syr-ian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 64 people, including 28 children, had been killed by Syrian army and Russian air raids in the northern prov-ince of Aleppo in the past 24 hours. The group said Syrian government forces backed by Russian air cover intensi-fied bombardments against insurgents throughout the country.

A Syrian member of parliament on Saturday called the US decision an ‘act of aggression’.

‘When America sends ground forces into Syrian territories without an agree-ment with the Syrian government it becomes an intervention and aggres-sion’, Sharif Shehadeh told the Associ-ated Press by telephone. ‘Will America

57Press coverage

allow Russian ground forces to go into America without an agreement? I think the answer is no.’

Shehadeh said that the troops will have no effect on the ground but that Washington wants to say it is present in Syria. ‘What has happened to make America realize, after five years, that it should send between 30 and 50 military advisers?’ he said.

© 2015, Washington PostReprinted with permission

Telegraph31 October 2015

Hammond: Britain ‘Must Back Syrian Opposition not Allied to Extremists’British Foreign Secretary says there as many as 80,000 moderate rebels – although ‘not moderate in a Weybridge sense’ – who are essential to building a credible opposition

By Richard Spencer

There are between 60–80,000 ‘moder-ate rebels’ in Syria, Philip Hammond, the Foreign Secretary, said on Saturday, even if they are ‘not moderate in a Wey-bridge sense’, rejecting claims the West had to choose between the Assad re-gime, Islamic State and Al-Qaeda.

Mr Hammond was speaking after all the major international backers of both

the regime and the opposition in Syria met for the first time and agreed to iso-late extremist groups.

Western allies also warned Russia that by taking on rebels outside the Is-lamic State of Iraq and the Levant and backing the regime it risked becoming ‘drawn into the quagmire’.

Tony Blinken, the American deputy secretary of state, said that might itself force Russia into negotiating a politi-cal transition that removed President Bashar al-Assad from power.

‘Russia cannot afford to sustain its military onslaught against everyone op-posed to Assad’s brutal rule, Mr Blinken said, at the Manama Dialogue confer-ence in Bahrain. ‘The costs will mount every day in economic, political, and se-curity terms – but at best only to prevent Assad from losing.’

The talks in Vienna were the first to involve both Saudi Arabia, which has supported the rebels in Syria, and Iran, the most important military and politi-cal backer of the Assad regime up until the Russian intervention. The two Mid-dle East countries are fierce rivals for re-gional influence, and their involvement has rapidly turned the uprising in Syria into a proxy war.

All sides are agreed in principle on a ceasefire between the government and the mainstream rebel groups, to allow for a political transition and even elections.

However, the outlines of what stands between the two sides became clear in Vienna.

Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi foreign minister, said in Manama he had pro-posed a step-by-step solution involv-

58 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

ing the withdrawal of foreign forces – a reference to Iranian troops and militias like the Lebanese Hizbollah, which also backs the regime – followed by the set-ting up of a transitional governing coun-cil in four to six months.

There would then be elections for all Syrians, including refugees, within 18 months to two years.

That seems unlikely to happen, as Iran is unlikely to withdraw troops and advis-ers until it knows the regime is secure. However, it also focuses on how far apart the two sides are otherwise: Russia and Iran believe Mr Assad must not only be on the transitional governing council but must be allowed to stand for elections.

Saudi Arabia wants him to stand down now, while Britain and other Eu-ropean countries have said that he could be ‘part of the transition’.

Mr Hammond said he had met pri-vately with Sergei Lavrov, his Russian counterpart to see if there was likely to be any softening of Russia’s position.

‘I probed him very much on Russia’s flexibility’, Mr Hammond told report-ers. ‘He told me he doesn’t have any.’

He said Britain would continue to sup-port ‘moderate’ rebels, explaining that he meant rebel groups not part of proscribed terrorist organisations like Isil and Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian arm of al-Qaeda. Critics point out that many ‘moderate’ groups are still Islamist and some allied to Jabhat al-Nusra even if not part of it.

‘It’s very important to preserve the moderate opposition,’ he said. ‘There’s been questioning in the media about whether the moderate opposition re-ally exists.’

‘There’s certainly a substantial op-position force on the ground – 60–80,000 people on the ground who are not al-Nusra or Isil. They are not moderate in the sense that people in Weybridge would recognise as moderate, but they are people who accept that there will be contested elections to determine the fu-ture of Syria and it’s important that we maintain that credible opposition.’

© 2015, TelegraphReprinted with permission

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung31 October 2015

Neue Offensive Gegen Islamischen StaatKämpfer der syrischen Opposition ha-ben nach eigenen Angaben eine weitere Militäroffensive gegen die Terrormiliz Islamischer Staat begonnen. Die Reak-tionen auf die Wiener Syrien-Konferenz fallen indes unterschiedlich aus.

In Syrien gehen Oppositionskämpfer nach eigenen Angaben in eine neue Of-fensive gegen die Extremistenmiliz Is-lamischer Staat. Der Kampf werde sich auf die Provinz Hassaka im Nordosten konzentrieren, kündigte eine von den Vereinigten Staaten unterstütze Allianz der Aufständischen am Samstag auf Youtube an. Auch die oppositionsnahe Syrische Beobachtungsstelle für Men-schenrechte berichtete über die Pläne.

Erst am Freitag hatte der amerikanis-che Präsident Barack Obama angekün-digt, amerikanische Elitesoldaten nach

59Press coverage

Syrien zu schicken. Sie sollen von den Amerikanern als moderat eingestufte Aufständische im Kampf gegen den IS unterstützen. Die amerikanische Regierung bestritt jedoch, damit eine grundsätzliche Kehrtwende in ihrer Krisenstrategie einzuleiten. „An der Mission hat sich nichts geändert“, sagte Obamas Sprecher Josh Earnest im Weißen Haus. Bodeneinsätze von Sol-daten habe es auch vorher schon gege-ben. Außenamtssprecher John Kirby sagte, die Mission ändere sich nicht, die bisherigen Bemühungen in Syrien würden lediglich „verstärkt“.

Geteiltes Echo nach Syrien-KonferenzAm Freitag war auf der Wiener Syrien-Konferenz in die diplomatischen Bemü-hungen um ein Ende des Bürgerkriegs etwas Bewegung gekommen. Der sau-dische Außenminister Adel al Dschubeir sagte am Samstag in Bahrain auf der re-gionalen Sicherheitskonferenz IISS Ma-nama Dialogue: „Es hat Fortschritte gege-ben, aber sie reichen nicht so weit, das wir sagen können, eine Lösung des Konf-liktes sei in Reichweite.” Vor allem in der Frage nach der Zukunft des Gewaltherr-schers Baschar al Assad gebe es erhebli-che Differenzen. „Er sollte noch heute Nachmittag gehen”, sagte Dschubeir. Der britische Außenminister Philip Ham-mond sprach mit Blick auf Assad sogar von „sehr großen Differenzen“.

Ebenso herrscht in der Frage eines Abzugs ausländischer Kräfte nach Ds-chubeirs Worten Dissenz, womit der Minister in erster Linie die iranischen Militärs, libanesischen Hizbullah-Mi-lizionäre, von Iran unterstützte schi-

itischen Milizen aus dem Irak und das russische Einsatzkontingent gemeint haben dürfte. Das Treffen in Wien be-schrieb der saudische Außenminister dennoch als konstruktiv und „sehr of-fen“. Es sei ursprünglich auf zweiein-halb Stunden angesetzt gewesen, habe dann aber neun Stunden gedauert. Zu der Konferenz waren hohe Vertreter der arabischen Golfstaaten angereist.

Blinken bekräftigt Syrien-Engagement WashingtonsVor allem der Konflikt zwischen der sun-nitischen Führungsmacht Saudi-Arabien und dem schiitischen Regime bestimmte den Ton. Diplomaten sehen eine An-näherung der Rivalen als entscheidend für eine Lösung des Syrien-Konflikts wie auch des Jemen-Konflikts an. In Manama herrschten indes scharfe Anschuldigun-gen an die Adresse Irans vor, dessen Ag-gression und Hegemonialbestrebungen sich die arabischen Golfstaaten en-tschieden entgegenstellen würden.

Der stellvertretende amerikanische Außenminister Antony Blinken bekräft-igte in Manama das Syrien-Engagement Washingtons. Er kündigte an, Amerika werde zusätzlich hundert Millionen Dollar bereitstellen, die als Unterstüt-zung für die örtlichen Verwaltungen und die Zivilgesellschaft in die von Re-bellen kontrollierten Gebiete fließen sol-lten. Er äußerte abermals die Hoffnung, Russland werde angesichts der „auch politischen Kosten“ irgendwann zu ein-er konstruktiven Rolle gezwungen sein. Ein russischer Militärfachmann sagte der F.A.Z. hingegen, die Angriffe könnt-en „über Jahre“ fortgesetzt werden.

60 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Leyen vorsichtig optimistischVerteidigungsministerin Ursula von der Leyen äußerte sich vorsichtig opti-mistisch zu den Ergebnissen der Wiener Syrien-Konferenz. „Das Treffen in Wien wird anerkannt als ein Startschuss für etwas Neues“, sagte sie in Bahrain. Un-terschwellig gebe es zwar auch deutli-che Skepsis hinsichtlich weiter beste-hender Trennlinien und Gräben, sagte die Ministerin. Aber dass es ein „Mo-mentum“ und einen „berechtigten Hoff-nungsschimmer“ gebe, sei ganz klar in der Region spürbar. Siebzehn Staaten hatten am Freitag in Wien gemeinsam einen neuen Anlauf zu einer politischen Lösung der Syrien-Krise genommen, darunter auch Iran und Russland. In zwei Wochen sollen die Beratungen fortgesetzt werden.

© 2015, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

Reprinted with permission

Bloomberg31 October 2015

No One But US Believes Russia Will Abandon Assad

By Josh Rogin

The Obama administration began a new diplomatic process Friday to solve the Syria crisis – a gambit that depends on Russia to eventually push Syrian Presi-dent Bashar al Assad to step down. But not even America’s allies think Russia will reverse its support for the dictator.

Representatives of all of the coun-tries supporting forces in Syria’s civil war met for nine hours in Vienna, after which top US officials said that the new talks had made some progress in identi-fying shared goals, such as maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity and ending the violence. Diplomats from the US, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and several other countries agreed to meet again within two weeks. There was no agreement on the key issue, whether Assad would be compelled to leave power as part of a transition to a new Syrian government.

Antony Blinken, the US deputy sec-retary of state who spoke Saturday at the International Institute for Strategic Stud-ies Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, said the US government believes it’s only a matter of time before Moscow realizes that its military intervention and its ar-dent support for Assad’s continued rule are mistakes, after which the Russian government could support a political process that includes replacing Assad.

‘Russia’s intervention in Syria is a prime example of the law of unintended consequences. It will have two primary effects’, Blinken said. ‘First, it will in-crease Russia’s leverage over Assad. But second, it will increase the conflict’s lev-erage over Russia. And that will create a compelling incentive to Russia to work for, not against, a political solution.’

Russia will not be able to afford to sustain its military intervention in Syria for long, Blinken said, and sooner rather than later the economic, political and security costs will force Russia to re-evaluate its Syria policy. He said Russia

61Press coverage

will be dragged into a quagmire, and he expressed confidence that Russia would come around to the realization that in order to solve Syria, it will have to agree to Assad’s departure.

‘Russia has a choice now on how to move forward, and we would welcome it making the right choice for our shared interests,’ Blinken said.

After he spoke, a series of officials and experts from the countries that are allied with the United States on the Syr-ia issue openly disagreed with the con-tention there was any significant chance Russia would come around to the West-ern view on Assad’s future.

The British foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, told me he had good reason to be skeptical of that optimism.

‘There’s a school of thought that says that as the Russians get drawn into this conflict, they will more and more looking for a way to get a political solu-tion’, he said – but ‘it’s not my govern-ment’s assessment.’

Hammond said he spoke with Rus-sia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, the day before in Vienna after the talks con-cluded and Lavrov told him Russia did not have any flexibility on the issue of Assad’s departure. Hammond said that the Russian position on Assad is exactly the same as it was three years ago and that it’s likely to remain the same. Rus-sia says Assad was elected, and only an election can replace him.

That would be ‘directly at odds with those of us who believe that Assad has so much blood on this hands that he has to depart before there can be a sustainable political solution in Syria’, Hammond said.

The Russian Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Lavrov has said repeatedly that the fate of Assad was a decision for Syrians alone and that Russia would not negoti-ate a date for his departure.

Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Adel al-Jubeir, spoke at the conference after Blinken and said that in order for any real political process in Syria to begin, Russia and Iran must withdraw their forces from Syria and agree to a date and means for Assad’s departure. Al-Jubeir said Saudi Arabia would continue to arm the Syrian opposition until Russia and Iran agreed to both conditions.

François Heisbourg, the chairman of the International Institute for Strate-gic Studies and a former top official in the French foreign ministry, disputed Blinken’s contention that Russia would feel pressured by the costs of its inter-vention in Syria:

‘I would be very surprised if Russia could not sustain such an effort despite its other difficulties until at least the end of the American electoral cycle in No-vember of next year’ – in other words, wait out the Obama administration and deal with the next president.

Maxim Shepovalenko, a senior re-search fellow at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Mos-cow, told me that the Russian thinking is that the military intervention might actually succeed and that Assad might stay. Either way, there’s no way the Rus-sian government is going to negotiate Assad’s departure anytime soon.

‘We believe firmly that the Syrians will decide for themselves, and if this

62 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

campaign is a success, Assad is defi-nitely the one who will be preferable’, he said.

What if the US government’s as-sumption is wrong, and Russia does not become a force for a political resolution in Syria? Is the Obama administration depending too heavily on Russia to pressure Assad?

Blinken pointed to the US efforts to build up rebel groups to fight the Islam-ic State as evidence that the US is still pressuring Assad. He didn’t specifically mention the 50 US special forces troops that the US just announced it will send into northern Syria.

‘The forces that are being empow-ered on the ground to fight Daesh are also increasingly in a position to help create the conditions for political tran-sition in their country as well’, he told me. ‘And we will continue to work and strengthen our support for those forces.’

The Obama administration has long said that its support for Syrian rebels fighting the Islamic State, also called Daesh, is not directed at Assad. In any case, US support for the rebels fighting Assad has declined, especially after the US canceled its ‘train and equip’ pro-gram to empower local fighters.

Privately, European diplomats at the conference told me they were concerned the new US-led diplomatic effort was an empty gesture, to allow the Obama ad-ministration to claim it was working in earnest to solve the Syria crisis. Ameri-ca’s allies are reluctant to invest in a pro-cess in which they do not think the US has much confidence and that has little chance of success.

US officials told me that the Vienna talks with Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and others are an honest attempt to convince Russia to change its position on Syria and that there is some hope Russia will endorse a solution to the Syrian civil war that does not include Assad remaining in power. But nobody else in the room shares that hope.

© 2015, BloombergReprinted with permission

Agence France-Presse31 October 2015

US Announces $100 Mln in New Aid to Syria OppositionThe United States on Saturday an-nounced it is providing nearly $100 mil-lion more in aid to the Syrian opposition for tasks like supporting local councils and civil society activists.

This brings to nearly $500 million the amount the United States has pledged to the Syrian opposition since 2002, the State Department said.

The new pledge was made by Depu-ty Secretary of State Antony Blinken at a regional security forum called the Ma-nama Dialogue, in Bahrain.

‘US assistance is helping keep schools open for Syrian children; re-storing access to electricity and water infrastructure; supporting independ-ent media and civil society to hold their local governments accountable, and building the capacity of the moderate opposition to play a role in a future Syria that respects human rights and

63Press coverage

the rule of law,’ the department said in a statement.

This assistance was announced a day after the United States revealed that is sending dozens of special ops forces to Syria to assist forces fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group.

© 2015, Agence France-PresseReprinted with permission

Al Arabiya31 October 2015

Saudi FM: US Support of Gulf at ‘Record High’

By Ismaeel Naar

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said on Saturday that US sup-port of the Gulf is at an ‘all-time high’ when asked by Al Arabiya News to comment on the absence of aircraft car-riers in the region.

‘The relationship with the US in the strategic sense has not changed. The American presence in the region has in fact increased, whether aircraft car-riers have been withdrawn or not. The number of American troops and forces in the region is almost at a record high’, Jubeir said.

In August, the US navy announced that it pull its sole aircraft carriers out of the Gulf this fall – leaving the region without a naval strike force for the first time in seven years.

The decision came at a sensitive time, as Western powers struck a deal with

Iran on curbing Iranian nuclear ambi-tions through a nuclear deal that would see economic sanctions being lifted.

‘The decisions that were arrived at between the Gulf countries and the US with regards to military cooperation, intelligence sharing, cyber security, bal-listic missile defense are all working. The agreement was made between the leadership of GCC leaders with Presi-dent Obama to intensify efforts in those areas and they’re ongoing as we speak,’ he said.

The top Saudi diplomat said that the US support for the region should not be measured by naval presence alone. ‘I wouldn’t measure it by aircraft carriers leaving the Gulf or not. We’ve had situa-tions in the past where we were left with only one or two carriers but US ships and aircrafts are still available.’

During the same conference, US Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the region is ‘home to some of our oldest allies’.

‘President Obama made it clear that defending them against aggression has been, is and will always remain a core national interest of the United States,’ he added.

Jubeir was speaking at the 11th Ma-nana Dialogue in Bahrain, a conference held by the UK-based International In-stitute for Strategic Studies think-tank.

Iran’s activities in the region was a hot topic in the sessions, where Arab diplomats including Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed al-Khalifa and Secretary General of the Arab League Nabil Elaraby voicing similar views.

64 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

‘Iran is at a crossroads, and it’s their choice where they can either choose to have a major shift in their foreign policy and move to phase two of fixing their relationships with the world after their nuclear deal and hopefully it will suc-ceed,’ Sheikh Khalid said.

‘Or else they can continue on their current policies that don’t bring them any stability and continue to send the wrong messages not only to their neigh-bours but also to their people,’ Bahrain’s top diplomat said.

Asked by Al Arabiya News on the status of a joint Arab military force, proposed in May this year by Arab League states, Elaraby said it ‘was a le-gitimate question’.

‘There were meetings where we had at least 17 chiefs of staffs from across the Arab world, something that has never happened before,’ Elaraby told Al Ara-biya News.

Elaraby said that with the proposed forces, military units would not be sta-tioned in one base or country. ‘Every country will have their own barracks un-der each [of their] own jurisdictions. A protocol was worked out which most, if not all, countries agreed on. The general idea of that was that such a force could be used in rapid deployment,’ he said.

He also added that a joint council made up of the ministers of defense and foreign ministers of each country would take any decisions taken by the joint Arab military force in the future.

Syria’s future and countering IranJubeir made his trip to Bahrain’s cap-

ital Manama only hours after meeting with 16 other foreign powers in Vienna

– including the US, Iran and Russia – who collectively called on Friday for a nationwide truce in Syria’s civil war, a renewal of stalled UN-brokered talks between the government and opposi-tion forces, and fresh elections.

It was announced that another meet-ing would be held in two weeks to de-termine the future of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

‘On Syria, the issue has to do with determining a new leadership other than Assad. That is the main objective as we see it,’ Jubeir said. He also reiterated the importance to focus both on Assad’s departure and the removal of foreign forces in Syria as well.

‘The idea here is to ensure the depar-ture of Assad doesn’t create a collapse of the state and a political vacuum,’ he said.

Asked what alternatives Syria has should a political solution fail in the coming months, Jubeir said that Saudi would aid the moderate Syrian opposi-tion with ‘more lethal weapons to fight the Assad regime’.

When asked during what time frame Assad should leave, he said: ‘Ideally he should leave this afternoon. The sooner the better and we can all move in help building a new Syria.’

© 2015, Al ArabiyaReprinted with permission

65Press coverage

Gulf News31 October 2015

Bahrain Crown Prince Says the World has Failed Syrians

11th Manama Dialogue opens with call for ‘greater urgency’ in finding solutions to region’s problems

By Habib Toumi

Manama: Bahrain’s Crown Prince Sal-man Bin Hamad Al Khalifa has warned that ‘the urgency with which solutions must be found to address the human suffering within the region has never been greater.’

Speaking at the opening of the 11th Manama Dialogue, an international high-level security conference held an-nually in the Bahraini capital, Prince Salman said: ‘All countries must recog-nise that long-term stability is built on the foundations of hope, opportunity and prosperity, and that the principles of tolerance and coexistence must in-form every aspect of regional reform.

‘It is exactly these principles that are being opposed by the violent extremists in the region who distort religion in or-der to disrupt development.’

In his remarks about the situation in Syria, the Crown Prince said that the international community must accept the difficult truth that it has collectively failed the millions of innocent people so

badly affected by the civil war. The Syr-ian people now constitute a fifth of the 60 million people in the world displaced as a result of crises, and international efforts to achieve a long-term political solution – which has eluded the interna-tional community for over four years – must be agreed without delay, he added in remarks carried by Bahrain News Agency (BNA).

Referring to the situation in Yemen, Prince Salman said that the efforts led by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the southern Arabian Peninsula coun-try ‘demonstrate the way in which dip-lomatic efforts can be aligned with mili-tary collaboration in order to decisively address conflict’.

The Crown Prince stressed that this year’s Manama Dialogue takes place at a crucial juncture as a number of critical issues are challenging security across the region and the world, and conveyed hope that the serious and productive discussions that take place at the event would ‘make a significant contribution to solutions that foster lasting regional stability’.

In partnership with the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Bahrain has led the region’s foremost security conference for over ten years and the conference continues to provide a unique forum that facilitates multilat-eral engagement and private diplomacy in resolving conflict, he said.

Prince Salman welcomed Egyptian President Abdul Fattah Al Sissi’s com-ments regarding the need for social and economic development to underpin sta-bility and long-term positive change.

66 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

The Egyptian leader delivered the opening address in which he detailed the complexity of issues currently facing the region.

In his opening remarks, John Chip-man, the Director-General and Chief Executive of IISS, said the Manama Di-alogue ‘is a strong anchor to all of our work here’.

‘Each year, with this regional secu-rity summit, we take the temperature, measure the pulse and analyse the di-rection of change in the Middle East,’ he said. ‘In the past year, we have seen leaders in the region take a stronger stand to design their political and secu-rity environment, rather than be shaped by it. The accelerating pace of events is driving states to adjust foreign and de-fence policies at speed. Outsiders are recasting their approach to Gulf secu-rity, or reaffirming their interests afresh. Those within the region are adjusting their public position, creating new al-liances and inventing new policies. Ex-ternal military and political interven-tion has in the past been regretted. Its absence is no less often a cause for dis-enchantment. The intermingling of reli-gious and territorial competition is, for some of us here, historically reminiscent of Europe’s Thirty Years’ War.’

Chipman added that ‘while in the last 30 years there has been a significant shift in political power and influence to the states of the Gulf, Egypt remains the indispensable Arab state’.

‘It has an enduring political and demographic weight and a political history that encapsulates all the issues that we will discuss at this summit: the

making of war and peace, revolution and nationalism, the challenges of eco-nomic modernisation, religiously based extremism and insurgency’, he said. ‘Egypt is a central political fact. It is es-sential to any settlement of the conflicts that currently wrack the region – from Yemen, to Libya, to Syria and Iraq.’

© 2015, Gulf NewsReprinted with permission

Daily News Egypt31 October 2015

Al-Sisi Attends Manama Dialogue, Meets with German Defence MinisterPresident Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi called for political solutions to Middle East crises, condemning sectarian conflicts

By Sarah El-Sheikh

President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi met with German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen in Manama, Bahrain on Saturday.

The German minister praised Al-Sisi’s last visit to Berlin in June, saying it strengthened cooperation between the two countries. She also expressed Germany’s wish to advance cooperation between Egypt in both the military and the economic fields, according to presi-dential spokesman Alaa Yousef.

Al-Sisi also confirmed Egypt’s keen-ness to enhance bilateral relations be-

67Press coverage

tween the two countries in all fields, and expressed his appreciation for Ger-many’s encouragement of all Egyptian initiatives. He praised the performance of German companies in Egypt.

Meanwhile, President Abdel Fat-tah Al-Sisi participated in the opening of the annual International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Manama Dialogue. Prince Salman bin Hamad Al-Khalifa had noted that Al-Sisi’s par-ticipation confirms Egypt’s vital role in Middle East issues.

During the dialogue, Al-Sisi dis-cussed the situation in Libya, Syria, Pal-estine and Yemen, stressing the necessity of limiting conflicts due to their serious impact on the Middle East’s security. He stressed on finding political solutions to solve the crises through the cooperation.

Throughout Al-Sisi’s tour to the UAE and Bahrain, he was eager to highlight Egypt’s efforts to safeguard the security of Gulf states.

‘Bahrain is currently witnessing ten-sions between its leaders and opposi-tion parties; therefore Egypt’s presence in the Manama dialogue is essential to strengthen relations’, political scientist Hassan Nafaa told Daily News Egypt.

Egypt’s alliance with Saudi Arabia to support ‘legitimacy in Yemen’ is also im-portant for Egypt’s security and stability, since the Bab Al-Mandab strait is near the Suez Canal, while the security and stability of Gulf countries is essential to Egyptian national security, Nafaa added.

Also on Friday, Bahraini King Ham-ad Bin Issa Al-Khalifa met with Al-Sisi to discuss the bilateral relations between Egypt and Bahrain. He highlighted

ways to advance cooperation between the two countries in various fields and confirmed the importance of continuing the consultations and coordination be-tween both countries.

© 2015, Daily News EgyptReprinted with permission

BBC1 November 2015

Gulf Arab Leaders Fear Twin Threats from Extremists

By Frank Gardner

The visible security cordon around the annual Manama Dialogue, the air-condi-tioned meeting rooms and all the theatre of government protocol belie the sense of unease that has permeated this premier regional security conference, organised by the London-based International Insti-tute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

The region is still coming to terms with the consequences of the US-led in-vasion of Iraq in 2003 which tipped the chessboard of Middle Eastern power politics upside down.

Most of those consequences are un-welcome to the oil-rich Gulf Arab states.

In Iraq, the despotic Sunni regime of President Saddam Hussein has been replaced by a Shia-led government seen by many here as a proxy of Iran.

The subsequent marginalisation of Iraq’s Sunni population in recent years helped give rise to the violent jihadist group calling itself Islamic State (IS).

68 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Today, the region’s leaders are look-ing nervously at a range of threats, both within their borders and beyond.

The ‘cult’ of Daesh (‘Islamic State’)Using the Arabic term ‘Daesh’ for the so-called Islamic State, Saudi Arabia’s urbane Foreign Minister, Adel Jubeir, said the organisation that has seized large parts of Iraq and Syria under its black banner was not a religious move-ment but a cult.

Thousands of Saudis have joined its ranks, drawn by the similarities to some of their own country’s strict, ascetic in-terpretations of Islam.

This year Saudi Arabia has suffered several deadly attacks by IS suicide bombers, mostly targeting mosques, both Sunni and Shia, as the militant group attempts to provoke a sectarian conflict in the Gulf.

Bahrain announced that it had iden-tified 70 of its nationals fighting for IS and a further 24 individuals have been charged with trying to form a branch of IS in Bahrain. Sixteen of these suspects remain at large.

The Saudi foreign minister catego-rised those would-be jihadists who go off to join IS in three ways.• Idealists, who he said were ‘redeem-

able’.• Sectarians who went to fight for a

cause (defending fellow Sunni Mus-lims) but found the war was not what they expected.

• Lost people seeking a cause. These, said Mr Jubeir, were young men who had been in and out of jails and were now trying to atone for their sins.

Britain’s Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond gave a keynote speech to the conference in which he admitted that the UK had been ‘too slow in the past to recognise the links between non-violent extremism and violent extremism’.

He added: ‘For decades we have clung to a false distinction between the two. With hindsight, we’ve been too tol-erant of intolerance.’

Britain, he said, would shortly be introducing legislation to ban the most dangerous extremist organisations.

Iran’s wealth unleashedThere is a fair degree of nervousness here about how Iran will spend the soon-to-be-released billions of dollars in unfrozen funds as a result of the UN-backed nuclear deal.

Many of the Gulf Arab states see Iran as a strategic threat even without its nuclear programme, which Iran says is purely for peaceful purposes.

Both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have accused Iran of interfering in their coun-tries and exporting terrorism. On a visit to London last month a senior Iranian official strongly denied this.

‘We want to have the best possible relations with Iran’, said Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir without a hint of irony (Iran and Saudi Arabia are regional rivals with a history of mutual distrust).

‘But the reason they are not good is because of Iran’s interventions in Leba-non, Syria, Iraq and Yemen and its at-tempts to destabilise Bahrain.’

Mr Jubeir said Saudi Arabia wel-comed the Iran deal but that Iran had huge infrastructure challenges and the

69Press coverage

region did not yet know whether it would spend the proceeds from the deal on developing its infrastructure at home – or on funding what he called ‘aggres-sive policies’ abroad.

Bahrain recently expelled the Iranian ambassador after blaming it for supply-ing a major arms cache to insurgents. There were no Iranian officials at this year’s Manama Dialogue.

But Nazenin Ansari, a London-based Iranian journalist for Kayhan newspa-per, attending the conference, told me that ‘there are different (power) centres with different agendas in Iran.’

‘The Foreign Ministry would like to have a more civilised and a more cor-dial relationship with the outside world and to be able to reintegrate Iran into the outside world. But there are those in Iran who see this as a death knell for their power structures within Iran and they will use every means at their dis-posal to put a stop to that.’

Bombs in BahrainIn a side room of the conference Bah-rain’s Chief of Police, Maj-Gen Tariq Al-Hassan showed delegates round a chilling display of Improvised Explo-sive Devices (IEDs), claymore mines, machine guns and grenades discovered by security forces here over the last four years.

Bahrain has been wracked by more than four years of intermittent protests that have led to over 20 deaths includ-ing, increasingly, policemen.

The police chief said a total of 445 IEDs had been uncovered, all exported by Iran. The US Navy, whose powerful

5th Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain, has been providing the Bahrainis with intelligence tip-offs.

Although the violence has subsided considerably from its peak in 2011, hu-man rights organisations still accuse the Bahraini authorities of abuses.

Opposition activists and journalists have previously accused the govern-ment of exaggerating the threat from terrorism but a senior British military officer present said the finds on display were all genuine.

Syrian conflict unresolvedThe conflict raging in Syria has domi-nated this year’s Manama Dialogue. The Saudi foreign minister, just back from the talks in Vienna, sounded pessimis-tic about the chances of any imminent breakthrough.

Although there had been agreement on some more minor points there re-mained two serious sticking points di-viding those supporting and opposing Syria’s embattled President Bashar al-Assad. These were:• The date of departure of President

Assad. Saudi Arabia and its allies ‘would like him to leave this af-ternoon preferably’. Iran, largely backed by Russia, wants him to stay

• The date of departure of Iranian forces from Syria. Iran denies having combat troops in Syria, only ‘advi-sors’. Saudi Arabia says thousands have been sent, along with Iran’s proxy army in Lebanon, Hezbol-lah, and calling them ‘an occupying army’ it wants them to leave.The US Deputy Secretary of State

70 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Antony Blinken found himself on the defensive over US policy on Syria. He announced a further $100m in aid for the Syrian opposition and insisted that pro-gress was being made against IS in Iraq.

Yemen war – the final phase?As a country on the extreme southwest tip of the Arabian Peninsula, what hap-pens in Yemen concerns all six Gulf Arab states and there was much discus-sion of the seven-month war there that has cost more than 4,000 lives.

Saudi Arabia and Bahrain reiterated their view that blame lay with the Irani-an-backed Houthi rebels who took over much of the country last year.

But international concern over ci-vilian casualties has been mounting, especially those caused by Saudi-led air strikes.

The Saudi foreign minister said he believed the war had now entered its final phase and that a deal based on a UN Security Council resolution was possible.

Embarrassingly for the conference organisers however, two respected Yem-eni delegates were expelled from Bah-rain at the request of Yemen’s acting For-eign Minister, Riyadh Yasseen, claiming incorrectly that they were Houthis.

One even had to leave midway through a conference workshop session. The move has been widely criticised as being completely contrary to the spirit of ‘a dialogue’ and has painted both the Bahraini authorities and Yemen’s exiled government in a poor light.

© 2015, BBCReprinted with permission

71Selected IISS publications

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, the Institute’s bi-monthly journal, is a leading forum for analysis and debate of international and strategic affairs. Recent articles of interest include:

Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Iran: A Good Deal’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October–November 2015, pp. 47–52.

Moore, Thomas C., ‘Iran: Non-Proliferation Overshadowed’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October–November 2015, pp. 53–8.

Avis Bohlen, ‘Iran: An Opening for Diplomacy?’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October–November 2015, pp. 59–66.

Tertrais, Bruno, ‘Iran: An Experiment in Strategic Risk-Taking’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October–November 2015, pp. 67–73.

Hanna, Michael Wahid, and Kaye, Dalia Dassa, ‘The Limits of Iranian Power’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 5, October–November 2015, pp. 173–98.

Fishman, Ben, ‘Could Libya’s Decline Have Been Predicted?’, Survival, vol.

57, no. 5, October–November 2015, pp. 199–208.

Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the Nuclear Rumour Mill’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 4, August–September 2015, pp. 105–8.

Scheipers, Sibylle, ‘Auxiliaries at War in the Middle East’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 4, August–September 2015, pp. 121–38.

Fromson, James, and Simon, Steven, ‘ISIS: The Dubious Paradise of Apocalypse Now’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 3, June–July 2015, pp. 7–56.

Ahram, Ariel I., ‘Sexual Violence and the Making of ISIS’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 3, June–July 2015, pp. 57–78.

Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Relief’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 3, June–July 2015, pp. 219–26.

Freilich, Charles D., ‘Why Can’t Israel Win Wars Any More?’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 2, April–May 2015, pp. 79–92.

Holbrook, Donald, ‘Al-Qaeda and the Rise of ISIS’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 2, April–May 2015, pp. 93–104.

Cheterian, Vicken, ‘ISIS and the Killing Fields of the Middle East’, Survival, vol. 57, no. 2, April–May 2015, pp. 105–18.

Selected IISS publications

72 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Fishman, Ben, ‘Jordan: Caught in the Middle Again’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, December 2014–January 2015, pp. 39–48.

Farwell, James P., ‘The Media Strategy of ISIS’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, December 2014–January 2015, pp. 49–55.

Hokayem, Emile, ‘Iran, the Gulf States, and the Syrian Civil War’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, December 2014–January 2015, pp. 59–86.

Lister, Charles, ‘Assessing Syria’s Jihad’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, December 2014–January 2015, pp. 87–112.

Barkey, Henri J., ‘Turkey’s Syria Predicament’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 6, December 2014–January 2015, pp. 113–34.

Dodge, Toby, ‘Can Iraq Be Saved?’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 5, October–November 2014, pp. 7–20.

Fetzek, Shiloh, and Mazo, Jeffrey, ‘Climate, Scarcity and Conflict’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 5, October–November 2014, pp. 143–70.

Roberts, Daniel B., ‘Qatar and the Brotherhood’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 4, August–September 2014, pp. 23–32.

Alsayed, Wafa, ‘The Impatience of Youth: Political Activism in the Gulf’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 4, August–September 2014, pp. 91–106.

Ozkan, Behlül, ‘Turkey, Davutoglu and the Idea of Pan-Islamism’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 4, August–September 2014, pp. 119–140.

Stevenson, Jonathan, ‘The Syrian Tragedy and Precedent’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 3, June–July 2014, pp. 121–140.

Taspinar, Omer, ‘The End of the Turkish Model’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 2, April–May 2014, pp. 49–64.

Chubin, Shahram, ‘Is Iran a Military Threat’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 2, April–May 2014, pp. 65–88.

Tanner, Rolf, ‘Narrative and Conflict in the Middle East’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 2, April–May 2014, pp. 89–108.

Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Overwhelming Global Vote for the Iran Nuclear Deal’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 1, February–March 2014, pp. 71–75.

Byman, Daniel, ‘Sectarianism Afflicts the New Middle East’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 1, February–March 2014, pp. 79–100.

Gaub, Florence, ‘Libya’s Recipe for Disaster’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 1, February–March 2014, pp. 101–20.

Mina, James, and Serwer, Daniel, ‘Circumventing Hormuz’, Survival, vol. 56, no. 1, February–March 2014, pp. 121–38.

Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Destroying Syria’s Chemical Weapons’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 6, December 2013–January 2014, pp. 107–14.

Brockmeier, Sarah, ‘Germany and the Intervention in Libya’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 6, December 2013–January 2014, pp. 63–90.

Larrabee, Stephen F., ‘Turkey’s New Kurdish Opening’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 5, October–November 2013, pp. 133–46.

Simon, Steven, ‘Egypt’s Sorrow and America’s Limits’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 5, October–November 2013, pp. 79–84.

Peel, Michael, ‘Africa and the Gulf’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August–September 2013, pp. 143–54.

Guzansky, Yoel and Yadlin, Major-General (retd) Amos, ‘The Arab World’s Response to an Israeli Attack on Iran’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August–September 2013, pp. 107–20.

Borghard, Erica D. and Rapp-Hooper, Mira, ‘Hizbullah and the Iranian Nuclear Programme’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August–September 2013, pp. 85–106.

73Selected IISS publications

Jones, Peter, ‘Hope and Disappointment: Iran and the Arab Spring’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August–September 2013, pp. 73–84.

Jones, Seth G., ‘Syria’s Growing Jihad’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August–September 2013, pp. 53–72.

Serwer, Daniel, ‘Muddling Through in Iraq’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August–September 2013, pp. 35–40.

Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Reinforce Rowhani’s Mandate for Change’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 4, August–September 2013, pp. 31–34.

McCrisken, Trevor, ‘Obama’s Drone War’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 2, April–May 2013, pp. 97–122.

Bronk, Christopher and Tikk-Ringas, Eneken, ‘The Cyber Attack on Saudi Aramco’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 2, April–May 2013, pp. 81–96.

Charap, Samuel, ‘Russia, Syria and the Doctrine of Intervention’, Survival, vol. 55, no. 1, February–March 2013, pp. 35–41.

Fitzpatrick, Mark, ‘Iran Will Determine Obama’s Legacy’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 41–46.

Barrie, Douglas, ‘Libya’s Lessons: The Air Campaign’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 57–65.

Chivvis, Christopher S., ‘Libya and the Future of Liberal Intervention’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 69–92.

Freilich, Charles D., ‘Striking Iran: The Debate in Israel’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 93–106.

Clayton, Blake and Levi, Michael, ‘The Surprising Sources of Oil’s Influence’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 107–22.

Barkey, Henri J., ‘Turkish–Iranian Competition after the Arab Spring’,

Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 139–62.

Jones, Erik, ‘Turkey Reconsidered’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 6, December 2012–January 2013, pp. 163–70.

Mousavian, Hossein, ‘Iran, the US and Weapons of Mass Destruction’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 5, October–November 2012, pp. 183–202.

Parasiliti, Andrew, ‘Closing the Deal with Iran’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 4, August–September 2012, pp. 33–41.

Stein, Ewan, ‘Revolution or Coup? Egypt’s Fraught Transition’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 4, August–September 2012, pp. 45–66.

Phillips, Christopher, ‘Syria’s Torment’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 4, August–September 2012, pp. 67–82.

Farwell, James P. and Rohozinski, Rafal, ‘The New Reality of Cyber War’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 4, August–September 2012, pp. 107–20.

Keynoush, Banafsheh, ‘Iran after Ahmadinejad’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 3, June–July 2012, pp. 127–46.

Dodge, Toby, ‘Iraq’s Road Back to Dictatorship’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 3, June–July 2012, pp. 147168.

Hokayem, Emile, ‘Syria and its Neighbours’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 2, April–May 2012, pp. 7–14.

Samaan, Jean-Loup, ‘Jordan’s New Geopolitics’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 2, April–May 2012, pp. 15–26.

Bleek, Philipp C. and Stein, Aaron, ‘Turkey and America Face Iran’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 2, April–May 2012, pp. 27–38.

Bellodi, Leonardo, ‘Libya’s Assets and the Question of Sovereignty’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 2, April–May 2012, pp. 39–45.

Long, Austin and Radin, Andrew, ‘Enlisting Islam for an Effective Afghan Police’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 2, April–May 2012, pp. 113–28.

74 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Allin, Dana H., ‘Rumours of War’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 2, April–May 2012, pp. 211–20.

Elleman, Michael, ‘Containing Iran’s Missile Threat’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 1, February–March 2012, pp. 119–26.

Parasiliti, Andrew, ‘Leaving Iraq’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 1, February–March 2012, pp. 127–33.

McKean, David, ‘After Iraq: The Trigger Doctrine’, Survival, vol. 54, no. 1, February–March 2012, pp. 159–74.

Dobbins, James, ‘Coping with a Nuclearising Iran’, Survival, vol. 53, no. 6, December 2011–January 2012, pp. 37–50.

Perthes, Volker, ‘Europe and the Arab Spring’, Survival, vol. 53, no. 6, December 2011–January 2012, pp. 73–84.

Springborg, Robert, ‘The Precarious Economics of Arab Springs’, Survival, vol. 53, no. 6, December 2011–January 2012, pp. 85–104.

Jones, Peter, ‘Succession and the Supreme Leader in Iran’, Survival, vol. 53, no. 6, December 2011–January 2012, pp. 105–26.

The Adelphi series of books is the Institute’s principal contribution to policy-relevant, original academic research. Recent publications include:

Dodge, Toby, and Hokayem, Emile, Middle Eastern Security, the US Pivot and the Rise of ISIS, Adelphi 447–8, Routledge for the IISS, 2014.

Hokayem, Emile, Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant, Adelphi 438, Routledge for the IISS, 2013.

Dodge, Toby, Iraq: From War to a new Authoritarianism, Adelphi 434–5, Routledge for the IISS, 2012.

Dodge, Toby, Redman, Nicholas,

Afghanistan to 2015 and Beyond, Adelphi 425–6, Routledge for the IISS, 2011.

Phillips, Sarah, Yemen and the Politics of Permanent Crisis, Adelphi 420, Routledge for the IISS, 2011.

Berdal , Mats and Wennmann, Achim, Ending Wars, Consolidating Peace: Economic Perspectives, Adelphi 412–3, Routledge for the IISS, 2010.

Bisley, Nick, Building Asia’s Security, Adelphi 408, Routledge for the IISS, 2009.

Synnott, Hilary, Transforming Pakistan: Ways Out of Instability, Adelphi 407, Routledge for the IISS, 2009.

Raine, Sarah, China’s African Challenges, Adelphi 406, Routledge for the IISS, 2009.

Hughes, Christopher W, Japan’s Remilitarisation, Adelphi 405, Routledge for the IISS, 2009.

Hashim, Ahmed S, Iraq’s Sunni Insurgency, Adelphi Paper 402, Routledge for the IISS, 2009.

Fitzpatrick, Mark, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: Avoiding Worst-Case Outcomes, Adelphi Paper 398, Routledge for the IISS, 2008.

Perkovich, George and Acton, James M, Abolishing Nuclear Weapons, Adelphi Paper 396, Routledge for the IISS, 2008.

Kurth Cronin, Audrey, Ending Terrorism: Lessons for defeating al-Qaeda, Adelphi Paper 394, Routledge for the IISS, 2008.

Ansari, Ali M, Iran under Ahmadinejad: The Politics of Confrontation, Adelphi Paper 393, Routledge for the IISS, 2007.

Akkoyunlu, Karabekir, Military Reform and Democratisation: Turkish and Indonesian Experiences at the Turn of the Millennium, Adelphi Paper 392, Routledge for the IISS, 2007.

75Selected IISS publications

The Strategic Dossier series harnesses the Institute’s technical expertise to present detailed information on key strategic issues. Recent publications include:

Iran’s Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Capabilities: A Net Assessment, IISS, 2011.

Iran’s Nuclear, Ballistic Missile Capabilities: A Net Assessment, IISS, 2010.

Nuclear Programmes in the Middle East: In the shadow of Iran, IISS, 2008.

Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, A.Q. Khan and the Rise of Proliferation Networks: A Net Assessment, IISS, 2007.

Strategic Comments is the Institute’s online source of analysis of international security and politico-mili tary issues. Recent articles of interest include:

‘Turkey’s growing security concerns’, Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 27 – October 2015.

‘Libya’s fragmented conflict resists solutions’, Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 22 – September 2015.

‘Iran’s nuclear agreement: the terms’, Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 19 – July 2015.

‘Iraqi Kurdistan: the essential briefing’, Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 7 – March 2015.

‘Iran nuclear talks approach conclusive deadline’, Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 4 – February 2015.

‘Libya’s civil war: the essential briefing’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 50 – February 2015.

‘Turkey’s Syria role risks instability at home, isolation abroad’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 36 – October 2014.

‘ISIS: the threat to homeland security’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 35 – October 2014.

‘Libya’s civil war no closer to resolution’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 31 – October 2014.

‘Iran nuclear talks extended for four more months’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 23 – June 2014.

‘Egypt’s economic crisis challenges El-Sisi’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 22 – June 2014.

‘Libya: Muslim Brotherhood’s tenuous hold’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 21 – June 2014.

‘North Korean lessons for an Iranian nuclear accord’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 18 – May 2014.

‘Syria’s war: Assad gains upper hand’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 15 – May 2014.

‘Torn Turkey: more turbulence ahead’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 12 – April 2014.

‘Elimination of Syria’s chemical weapons stalls’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 11 – April 2014.

‘Iraq violence grows ahead of elections’, Strategic Comments, vol. 20, no. 4 – February 2014.

‘Libya: paralysed by militias’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 38 – November 2013

‘Iran’s Rouhani: high hopes, narrow remit’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 37 – November 2013

‘Iranian ICBMs: a distant prospect’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 36 – November 2013

‘Al-Shabaab targeted after Nairobi attack’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 35 – November 2013

‘Equipment purchases boost Gulf defences’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 34 – November 2013

76 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

‘Turkey’s deepening democratic deficit’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 33 – October 2013

‘Egypt: shifting politics under army control’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 32 – October 2013

‘Syrian chemical plan faces multiple challenges’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 29 – September 2013

‘Syrian war worsens Lebanon’s malaise’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 25 – September 2013

‘Turkey’s civil unrest: a worrying new era?’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 19 – June 2013

‘Iran seeks stability in election’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 17 – June 2013

‘Syria crisis highlights importance of Chemical Weapons Convention’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 12 – April 2013

‘Libya: fragile security, fragmented politics’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 10 – March 2013

‘Kuwait’s deepening political turmoil’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 9 – March 2013

‘US need for foreign oil falls dramatically’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 6 – March 2013

‘Egypt: a country on edge’, Strategic Comments, vol. 19, no. 5 – February 2013

‘Jihad in Russia: the Caucasus Emirate’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 45 – December 2012.

‘Glimmer of hope in Iran nuclear gloom?’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 38 – October 2012.

‘Turkey’s frustrations grow with Syrian civil war’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 37 – October 2012.

‘Benghazi attack throws Libya gains into question’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 35 – October 2012.

‘Russia’s Syrian stance: principled self-interest’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18,

no. 31 – September 2012.‘Syria: foreign intervention still debated,

but distant’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 28 – September 2012.

‘Unease grows over Syria’s chemical weapons’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 25 – August 2012.

‘Iran sanctions halt long-range ballistic-missile development’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 22 – July 2012.

‘Kuwait’s political turmoil threatens progress’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 15 – April 2012.

‘Iraq: Maliki power grab risks fresh civil war’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 14 – April 2012.

‘Syria: inevitable descent into civil war?’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 7 – March 2012.

‘Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s disruptive military options’, Strategic Comments, vol. 18, no. 3 – January 2012.

Strategic Survey is the Institute’s annual review – and, to a lesser degree, projection – of strategic developments throughout the world. Recent sections of interest include:

‘Syria: New Rebel Alliances’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 192–202.

‘Iraq: Battling ISIS’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 203–10.

‘ISIS: Widening Impact’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 211–13.

‘Jordan: Struggle to Preserve Stability’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 213–15.

‘Lebanon: Burden of Syrian War’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 215–16.

‘Israel and Palestine: Hardline Politics and Resurgent Violence’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 217–22.

‘Iran: Nuclear Agreement Reached’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 223–35.

‘Saudi Arabia: Succession amid Regional

77Selected IISS publications

Crises’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 235–40.

‘Gulf States: Tentative Integration’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 241–45.

‘Yemen: From Political Transition to Civil War’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 245–51.

‘Egypt: New Political Order’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 252–7.

‘Maghreb: Differing Political Trajectories’, Strategic Survey 2015, pp. 257–61.

‘Syria: Escalation and Fragmentation’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 183–91.

‘Lebanon: Greater Insecurity and Complex Politics’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 192–95.

‘Israel and Palestine: Stalled Peace Process’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 196–200.

‘Iraq: Violent Insurgency’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 205–12.

‘Iran: Interim Nuclear Deal’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 213–24.

‘Gulf States: Tensions Between Neighbours’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 224–36.

‘Egypt’s Revolution Stalls’, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 238–44.

‘Maghreb: Legacy of the Arab Spring, Strategic Survey 2014, pp. 245–52.

‘Spreading Conflict in the Levant’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 179–88.

‘North Africa’s Difficult Transitions’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 188–204.

‘Gulf States: Containing Change’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 204–16.

‘Israel and Palestine: Status Quo Amidst Regional Upheaval’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 216–21.

‘Iran: Persistent Confrontation’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 221–36.

‘Iraq: Political Deadlock’, Strategic Survey 2013, pp. 236–46.

‘Economic Sanctions on Iran: A Case

Study’, Strategic Survey 2012, pp. 61–74.

‘Difficult Transitions Follow Arab Uprisings’, Strategic Survey 2012, pp. 199–239.

‘Israel and Palestine: Deadlock and Stagnation’, Strategic Survey 2012, pp. 240–46.

‘Iran: Nuclear Confrontation Escalates’, Strategic Survey 2012, pp. 246–61.

‘Iraq: Maliki Strengthens Dominance’, Strategic Survey 2012, pp. 261–69.

The Military Balance is the Institute’s annual assessment of military capabilities and defence economics worldwide. Region-by-region analyses cover the major military and economic trends and developments affecting security policy and the trade in weapons and other military equipment. Comprehensive tables portray key data on weapons and defence economics. Defence expenditure trends over a ten-year period are also shown.

The Military Balance 2016. Routledge for the IISS, February 2016.

The Manama Dialogue ReportOnline access to previous editions is available at www.iiss.org/publications/conference proceedings/sections/the-manama-dialogue-46e2

78 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

CHAPTER 4

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The IISS Manama Dialogue

11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMITBAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

80 The Manama Dialogue 2010

SPECIAL SESSION 3:

Stabilising Weak States

SPECIAL SESSION 4:

The Role of Political Islamism

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SPECIAL SESSION 1:

The Future of Yemen

SPECIAL SESSION 2:

GCC Defence Posture and External Powers

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81Reception and opening dinner

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11TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT BAHRAIN, 30 OCTOBER–1 NOVEMBER 2015

The IISS Manama DialogueThe 11th IISS Regional Security Summit: The IISS Manama Dialogue was held in

the Kingdom of Bahrain in October 2015, eleven years after the inaugural Summit.

The Dialogue brought together the national-security establishments of the six Gulf

Cooperation Council members: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the

United Arab Emirates; other regional countries including Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Syria,

Turkey and Yemen; and important outside powers: the United States, United Kingdom,

Canada, France, Germany, Estonia, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Russia, India, China, Japan,

Singapore and Australia.

The Manama Dialogue was convened by the International Institute for Strategic

Studies (IISS), with the support of the Kingdom of Bahrain. The IISS also convenes the

annual Asia Security Summit: The Shangri-La Dialogue, bringing together in Singapore

defence ministers, chiefs of defence staff, national-security advisers and other senior

officials from countries that are members of the ASEAN Regional Forum.

The IISS, a registered charity with offices in London, Washington, Bahrain and

Singapore, is the world’s leading authority on political-military conflict. It is the primary

independent source of accurate, objective information on international strategic issues.

Publications include The Military Balance, an annual reference work on each nation’s

defence capabilities; Strategic Survey, an annual review of world affairs; Survival: Global

Politics and Strategy, a bi-monthly journal on international affairs; Strategic Comments,

a monthly analysis of topical issues in international affairs; and the Adelphi series on

policy-relevant strategic issues.