IIM Ahmedabad Introduction to Integrated Environment Assessment Models Presentation by P.R. Shukla...

IIM Ahmedabad

Introduction to Integrated Environment Assessment Models

Presentation byP.R. Shukla

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop onIntegrated Environment Assessment in the Asia-Pacific Region

October 24-26, 2002, Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

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• Why Integrated Environment Assessment?

• What is Integrated Environment Assessment?Example: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

• What are Integrated Assessment Models and Component Models?Example: Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change Policy Analysis

• What kind of results and insights do Integrated Assessment provide?Example: Results and Insights from Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

• Why and what kind of capacity building for Integrated Assessment in developing countries?

Presentation Agenda

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Why Integrated Environment Assessment?

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Multiple Interfaces of Environment Assessment

PolicymakingProcess

Integrated Assessment

Models and Frameworks

Ecology

Policy sciences

Hydraulics

Meteorology

Climatology

GeophysicsAtmospheric

Chemistry Economics

Biology

Geochemistry

Knowledge disciplines

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• Diverse Scientific Disciplines

• Diverse socio-economic scenarios

• Macro and micro-economies

• Local and regional boundaries

• Short and long time horizons

• Local and global environmental concerns

• Rural and urban perspectives

• Regional emissions and impact assessment

• Probability and Decision under uncertainty

• Technology

What to Integrate?

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Why Integrated Assessment?

• To assemble, summarise, organise, interpret and reconcile pieces of existing knowledge

• To add value through integration (but not to add knowledge)

• To develop full range of policy outcomes

• To enhance Communication between scientific disciplines and policy formulation

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Why Integrated Assessment Models?

• Framework for conducting research ensuring consistency pointing to areas where more information is required

• IAMs are good ‘forecasting’ and ‘heuristic’ tools

• Communications tools between different sciences and between science and policy

• Insights from investigations in the domains of the sub-components

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What is Integrated Environment Assessment?

ExampleIntegrated Assessment

of Climate Change

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Climate Issues

Understanding “Climate” versus “Climate Change”

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Integrated Climate Change Dimensions

Atmospheric Composition

Climate & Sea Level

Human Activities Ecosystems

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Integrated Framework for Climate Change

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What are Integrated Assessment Models?

ExampleIntegrated Assessment Models forClimate Change Policy Analysis

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AIM Model System

Land use

TemperaturePrecipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity

Socio-economic indicator

Impact on food demand

Adaptation strategy

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model

A reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries

Futureeconomic trend

Futureenvironmental trend

India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China

AIM/TrendIndustry

Green Purchase

Environ-mental Burden

Environment Fund

Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)

Was

tes

Environmental Burden

Rec

ycle

　　　　　　　　 Technology needsTechnology assessment 　　　　　　　

Environmental Industry

Environmental burden

Consumer

Research on new technologies

AIM/MaterialA environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules

AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

A bottom-up technology selection model of energy useand emissions at country and local level

AIM/Bottom-upA bottom-up technology

& land use model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-

type world economic model

AIM FamilyAIM Family

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Strategic Database

OutputsOutputs

OutputsOutputs

Outputs

Innovational Work System

CommonCommonDatabaseDatabase

Monitoring & Processing

Data from IEM

AIM-Trend

AIM-EnergyAIM-Top-down

AIM-Material AIM-Ecosystem

Policy making

Statistics

Atmospheric CompositionMAGICC

Climate & Sea LevelSCENGEN

Human ActivitiesERB-AGLU

EcosystemsAGLU & MERGE

MiniCAMAn Integrated Modelling Framework

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MiniCAMCOMPONENTS

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION CLIMATE & SEA LEVEL

HUMAN ACTIVITIES ECOSYSTEMS

MAGICCAtmospheric Chemistry

MAGICCOcean Carbon

Cycle

MAGICCClimate

MAGICC--Ocean · temperature

· sea level

ERBEnergy System

ERBOther Human

Systems

ALUAg., L'stock

& Forestry

(none)Coastal System

MAGICCTerrestrial

Carbon Cyc.

ALUCrops & Forestry

Un-managed Eco-system & Animals

ALUHydrology

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What areComponent Models?

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19952005

20152025

2032

BG

DN

PL

MM

RV

NM

PA

KID

NTJK IN

DLK

AK

GZ

CH

NPH

LTH

AIR

NPR

KU

ZB

MYS

JPN

NZ

LA

US

TK

MTW

NK

AZ

KO

RSG

P0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16CO2 per capita[t-C/cap/yr]

YearCountry

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

AFRICA+MIDDLE EASTLATIN AMERICAASIA PACIFICNORTH AMERICAEUROPE+FORMER USSR0

10

20

30

40

50

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040


10

20

30

40

50

GDP growth

19952005

20152025

2032

BG

DN

PL

MM

RV

NM

PA

KID

NTJK IN

DLK

AK

GZ

CH

NPH

LTH

AIR

NPR

KU

ZB

MYS

JPN

NZ

LA

US

TK

MTW

NK

AZ

KO

RSG

P0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16CO2 per capita[t-C/cap/yr]

YearCountry

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040


10

20

30

40

50

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040


10

20

30

40

50

GDP growth

Land use

Temperature

Precipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity

Socio-economicindicator


Adaptation strategy






India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China

AIM/TrendIndustry

Green Purchase


Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle

Technology needsTechnology assessment

EnvironmentalIndustry

Environmentalburden

Consumer



Emission Intensity of SO2 in China



AIM/Bottom-upA simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region




Land use

Temperature

Precipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity



Adaptation strategy

Land use

Temperature

Precipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity



Adaptation strategy

Land use

Temperature

Precipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity



Adaptation strategy






India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China

AIM/TrendA reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries



India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China

Futureeconomic trendFutureeconomic trend

Futureenvironmental trendFutureenvironmental trend

India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China

AIM/TrendIndustry

Green Purchase


Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle



Environmentalburden

Consumer



IndustryGreen Purchase


Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle



Environmentalburden

Consumer




Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle



Environmentalburden

Consumer



Emission Intensity of SO2 in ChinaEmission Intensity of SO2 in China












AIM FamilyAIM FamilyGDP and CO2 Emissions:

AIM/Trend Model

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SO2 EmissionAIM/Emission Model

2000 2030

< 0.01 0.01-0.017

0.017-0.026 0.026-0.035 0.035-0.044 0.044-0.053 0.053-0.060

> 0.060

Million Tons < 0.01

0.03

0.07

0.15

< 0.20

0.11

Million Tons

< 0.01

0.03

0.07

0.15

< 0.20

0.11

Million Tons

Land use

Temperature

Precipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity



Adaptation strategy






India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China

AIM/TrendIndustry

Green Purchase


Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle



Environmentalburden

Consumer










Land use

Temperature

Precipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity



Adaptation strategy

Land use

Temperature

Precipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity



Adaptation strategy

Land use

Temperature

Precipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity



Adaptation strategy






India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China




India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China



India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China

AIM/TrendIndustry

Green Purchase


Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle



Environmentalburden

Consumer





Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle



Environmentalburden

Consumer




Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle



Environmentalburden

Consumer
















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Water Consumption:AIM/Ecosystem Model

Land use

Temperature

PrecipitationSunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity



Adaptation strategy






India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China

AIM/TrendIndustry

Green Purchase


Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle



Environmentalburden

Consumer










Land use

Temperature


Water resource

Crop Productivity



Adaptation strategy

Land use

Temperature


Water resource

Crop Productivity



Adaptation strategy

Land use

Temperature


Water resource

Crop Productivity



Adaptation strategy






India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China




India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China



India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China

AIM/TrendIndustry

Green Purchase


Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle



Environmentalburden

Consumer





Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle



Environmentalburden

Consumer




Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle



Environmentalburden

Consumer
















1995 Baseline

2032 Fortress World

2032 Policy Reform

WATER CONSUMPTION

0.0000

100.0000

200.0000

300.0000

400.0000

500.0000

600.0000

700.0000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

YEAR

CO

NS

UM

PT

ION

(km̂

3/year)

MF

FW

PR

GT

1 40 200 1000 5000

m3/ha/yearChange of water consumption from 1995 to 2032(Domestic + Agriculture + Industry)

1995 Baseline

2032 Fortress World

2032 Policy Reform

WATER CONSUMPTION

0.0000

100.0000

200.0000

300.0000

400.0000

500.0000

600.0000

700.0000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

YEAR

CO

NS

UM

PT

ION

(km̂

3/year)

MF

FW

PR

GT

1 40 200 1000 5000

m3/ha/yearChange of water consumption from 1995 to 2032(Domestic + Agriculture + Industry)

2030Market Force

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26 region – 36 sectorComputable General Equilibrium Model

(AIM/Top-down)

World level

Bottom-uptechnology

& land use Model

(AIM/Bottom-up)

Bottom-uptechnology

& land use Model

(AIM/Bottom-up)

Bottom-uptechnology

& land use Model

(AIM/Bottom-up)

・・・

Country level

AIM/Top-down &AIM/Bottom-up Model

Land use

Temperature

Precipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity



Adaptation strategy






India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China

AIM/TrendIndustry

Green Purchase


Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle



Environmentalburden

Consumer










Land use

Temperature

Precipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity



Adaptation strategy

Land use

Temperature

Precipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity



Adaptation strategy

Land use

Temperature

Precipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity



Adaptation strategy






India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China




India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China



India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China

AIM/TrendIndustry

Green Purchase


Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle



Environmentalburden

Consumer





Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle



Environmentalburden

Consumer




Environment Fund


Was

tes


Rec

ycle



Environmentalburden

Consumer
















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Insights from

Integrated Climate Change Assessment

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Emissions and Concentrations

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

19

90

20

15

20

40

20

65

20

90

21

15

21

40

21

65

21

90

22

15

22

40

22

65

22

90

Pg

C/y

r

WRE 750WRE 650WRE 550WRE 450WRE 350

IS92a

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

19

90

20

15

20

40

20

65

20

90

21

15

21

40

21

65

21

90

22

15

22

40

22

65

22

90

pp

mv

WRE 750WRE 650WRE 550WRE 450WRE 350

IS92a

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Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions

0

200

400

600

800

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035Year

Car

bon

(M

T)

0

10

20

30

40

50

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Year

Exa

Jou

les

Coal

Oil

GasHydro

Nuclear

RenewablesBiomass

Energy and Carbon Emissions for India: AIMENDUSE Model

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GHG versus Local Emissions in India

Carbon Emissions SO2 Emissions

0

200

400

600

800

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035Year

Car

bon

(M

T)

Year

Mil

lion

Ton

nes

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

7

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Global Carbon Mitigation Scenarios(2000 - 2100)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Ca

rbo

n (

Mill

ion

To

n)

550ppmv

650ppmv

750ppmv

Base Case

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Technology, Energy & Climate: MINICAM

1990 2005 2020 20352050

20652080

2095

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000M

illio

ns o

f Ton

nes

of C

arbo

n pe

r ye

arsoil carbon sequestrationsequestration from fossil power generationsequestration from synfuels productionsequestration from H2 productionend-use technology improvementsnuclearsolarbiomass550 ppmv emissions

550 ppmv

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Indian Energy System Transformation Under 550 ppmv Stabilization

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Exa

joul

es

Oil Gas Coal Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Carbon Capture

Energy Efficiency

Wind

Solar

Biomass

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

India 550 ppmv emission

Base Case Energy System Energy Changes: 550 ppmv Case

MT

C

550 ppmv

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Technological Change in India to Stabilize CO2 at 550 ppmv

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Carbon Capture

Energy Efficiency

Wind

Solar

Biomass

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

India 550 ppmv emission

550 PPMV550 PPMV

Non-Fossil Energy Contribution to GHG Mitigation

400

800

1200

2000

1600

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Regional Energy Market Development

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Impact of Regional Energy Market Developments in South-Asia

CarbonSOX

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

10.5R

edu

ctio

n (

%)

Year

Emissions Reduction (2015)

Grid Integration

Grid Integration + Regional Co-operation

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Why and What kind of Capacity Building for Integrated

Environment Assessment in Developing Countries?

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Integrated Environment Assessment: Developing Country

Problems

• Assessment and modeling capabilities

• Inadequate database

• Structural changes in the economy

• Myriad and conflicting developmental concerns

• Weak regional and international linkages

• Lack of sustained funding

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Limitations of Present Approaches

• Limited capability to characterize and parameterize long term interactions between the economy, society, and environment

• Assumptions derived from developed world perspective

• Inability to characterize discontinuities and extreme events

• Weak behavioral interfaces

• Distance between analysts and policy makers

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Capacity Building Needs for Developing Countries

• Inventorize existing best competence, data and experiences

• Networking and cooperation with regional and global teams

• Promote integrated assessment modeling under developing country expert leadership in cooperation with global experts

• Sustained funding

• Institutionalize integrated assessment activities

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