II. Environmental and socioeconomic consequences Timothy ... · WHO Collaborating Centre Course:...

WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health

Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II

What is climate change?

II. Environmental and socioeconomic consequences

Timothy Carter

Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)



Outline

1. Definitions

2. Detection and attribution of observed impacts

3. Methods for evaluating potential future impacts

4. Emerging risks and key vulnerabilities

5. Responding to climate change

6. Synthesis



Impacts - The effects on natural and human systems of

extreme weather and climate events and of climate

change.

Adaptation - The process of adjustment to actual or

expected climate and its effects. In human systems,

adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit

beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human

intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate

and its effects.

Vulnerability - The propensity or predisposition to be

adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety

of concepts and elements including sensitivity or

susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and

adapt.

Some definitions

IPCC (2014, Glossary)



IAV research community is extremely diverse

(disciplines, scales of analysis)

Wide differences in approaches and in the role of

scenarios in such studies

Unifying theme: treatment of the consequences

of climate change

: Impacts adaptation and

vulnerability assessment



Outline

1. Definitions





6. Synthesis



Detection - The process of demonstrating that climate or

a system affected by climate has changed in some

defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for

that change.

Attribution - The process of evaluating the relative

contributions of multiple causal factors to a change or

event with an assignment of statistical confidence.

Attribution of observed impacts in the WGII AR5 generally

links responses of natural and human systems to

observed climate change, regardless of its cause.

Some more definitions

IPCC (2014, Glossary)



IPCC (2013)

Observed surface temperature change 1901-2012

based on one global dataset. White areas have

insufficient data. + signs indicate significant trends



So what impacts have been detected?



In recent decades, changes in climate have caused

impacts on natural and human systems on all

continents and across the oceans.

Evidence of climate-change impacts is strongest and

most comprehensive for natural systems. Some impacts

on human systems have also been attributed to climate

change, with a major or minor contribution of climate

change distinguishable from other influences.

Headline statement in the IPCC AR5

IPCC (2014)



Glaciers are retreating globally

Source: Oerlemans

EEA (2004)



Vernagt glacier, Austria

Most, though not all glaciers are

also retreating in Europe

Source: Oerlemans

EEA (2004) EEA (2012)



Maximum ice cover extent in the

Baltic Sea (1719/20 - 2010/11)

EEA (2012); data from J. Vainio, Finnish Meteorological Institute



EEA (2012); data from E. Kuusisto, SYKE

Observed change in ice cover duration on

Lake Kallavesi, Finland, 1833-2011



Trend in heating degree days in the EU-27, 1980-2009

EEA (2012)



EEA (2012)

Change in the growing season (number of frost-free

days per year) during the period 1975–2010



Mean sowing dates for potato in Finland, 1965-1999

Upper line: latest sowings; lower line: earliest sowings Potato

29/4

4/5

9/5

14/5

19/5

24/5

29/5

3/6

8/6

13/6

18/6

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Da

y

Hildén et al. (2005)

Kaukoranta and Hakala (2008) FINADAPT

IPCC (2014)

Global patterns of impacts at various scales in recent

decades attributed to climate change Coloured symbols: categories of attributed impacts and contribution of climate

change (filled = major; open = minor). Stacked bars: Confidence in attribution



Outline

1. Definitions





6. Synthesis

Characteristics of different approaches to CCIAV assessments

Carter et al. (2007)



Conceptualising risk for the AR5

IPCC (2014)



Vulnerability assessment

Common focus: developing and mapping

indicators

Vulnerability is a function of:

• exposure

• sensitivity

• adaptive capacity

Schröter et al. (2005)



Norway



Exposure of Norwegian

agriculture to climate change

(by municipality)

Defined as a function of changes

(2030–2050 relative to 1980–2000) in:

- spring and autumn rainfall

- spring and autumn frost/thaw days

- length of the growing season

- average winter snow depth

Projections from RegClim

O’Brien et al. (2006)



Adaptive capacity of

Norwegian agriculture

by municipality

Defined as a function of:

- socioeconomic sensitivity

(% population involved in agriculture)

- economic factors (per capita income,

state transfers per capita, employment

prognoses)

- demographic factors (age structure of

work force, migration rates, %

dependents in the population)





Adaptive capacity Exposure

Vulnerability

is a function of:

and

www.iav-mapping.net/U-C-IAV/




Assessment of future impacts

Four categories:

• Analogues

• Experimental simulation of impacts

• Modelling of biophysical and economic impacts

• Integrated assessment



Analogues

Observed or reconstructed information that might

serve as an analogue for future climatic conditions

and their impacts taken from:

Other regions - spatial analogues

Previous time periods - temporal analogues



Some present day spatial analogues

of the GISS 2 x CO2 climate

Parry and Carter (1988)



Williams et al. (2007)

Nearest match of 21st-century climate at each location

to 20th-century climate at all other locations. High

values indicate 21st-century climates with no good

20th-century analogues Novel (no analogue) climates



Nearest match of 20th-century climate at each location

to 21st-century climate at all other locations. High

values indicate 20th-century climates with no good

21st-century analogues Disappearing climates

Williams et al. (2007)



Spatial analogues

Advantages:

Observing local adaptation to climate

Identifying key climate thresholds

Effective communication tool

Disadvantages:

Not related to greenhouse gas forcing

May be physically implausible

No appropriate analogues may be available



Temporal analogues

Three types:

1. Palaeoclimatic analogues

2. Instrumentally-based analogues

3. Event-driven analogues




Three main periods:

Pliocene (3.3 - 3.0 million years BP)

Eemian interglacial (125,000 years BP)

Mid-Holocene (6 - 10,000 years BP)



Advantages:

Physically plausible - actually occurred

Similar magnitudes of change to those predicted for ~2100

Disadvantages:

Variables may be poorly resolved in space and time

Related to orbital variations not greenhouse gas forcing




Climate during periods or composite years from the

historical climate record that may serve as an

analogue of future conditions

Types:

Warm periods (e.g. the Dust Bowl years in USA)

Warmest years (composite)

Regression based techniques




Example: Differences in England and Wales

rainfall between warm and cool periods

1934-1953minus

1901-1920

1968-1987minus

1901-1920DJF -0.06 -0.03

MAM -0.37 0.11

JJA -0.27 -0.44

SON -0.41 0.29

Annual -0.05 -0.02

Differences are in standard deviation units

Hulme and Jones (1988)

Arnell et al. (1990)



Example: Differences in average annual

runoff (%) between warm and cool periods

1934-1953minus

1901-1920

1968-1987minus

1901-1920

Eden -5 -7

Eden -3 -6

Exe -1 3

Tees 2 -10

Tyne 4 4

Wensum -8 -8

Wharfe -3 8

Wye -3 0Wensum

Arnell et al. (1990)



Advantages:

Physically realistic changes

Rich, well-resolved, internally consistent variables

Data readily available

Disadvantages:

Not necessarily greenhouse gas forced

Climate changes usually quite small

Suitable analogues may not be available




Past impact-relevant climate or weather events

Types:

climate events identified as extreme meteorologically (e.g.

windstorms, droughts)

climate events identified on the basis of anomalous impacts

(e.g. eroding winds, ice storms, ENSO)

climate events serving as benchmarks for

impacts/adaptation (e.g. 100-year flood, 1-in-10 drought)




Example: Historically mild winters as analogues of

future skiing conditions in the Northeast USA

Snow conditions

Length of ski season by size of resort

Demand and operating profit by size of resort

Dawson et al. (2009)



Advantages:

Physically realistic

Rich, well-resolved, internally consistent variables

Data readily available

Impacts/adaptation-relevant

Disadvantages:

Not necessarily greenhouse gas forced

May be unsuitable as analogues of future events (e.g.

unique, non-climate factors different)




Observing the behaviour of systems in an environment

artificially created to simulate the conditions anticipated

under a future changed climate and atmospheric

composition (informed by model projections)

Experiments



Long et al. (2006)

FACE experiment with soybean,

University of Illinois, USA



Relative effect of CO2 concentration on wheat grain yields (%) in

experiments. Current ambient CO2 concentration is set to 1

Olesen, (2001)

Relative CO2 concentration

0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

Rela

tive y

ield

(%

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Pot experiment

Field experiment

Mean response



Simulating the response of an exposure unit to

climate change, based on a knowledge of the main

causal mechanisms determining the sensitivity of a

system to climate

Types of models:

Statistical/static models (e.g. plant geography)

Dynamic models (soils, plant growth, disease)

Modelling of biophysical impacts

Carter and Mäkinen (2011)

Examples of biophysical impact models applied in recent studies (1)

Examples of biophysical impact models applied in recent studies (2)

Carter and Mäkinen (2011)



Köppen climate classification zones

Jylhä et al. (2010); see climateguide.fi



Simulated (eight crop models) and observed time course of total

above-ground biomass for rainfed wheat at Müncheberg in 1994

Palosuo et al. (2011)



Kovats st al. (2014), after Lung et al. (2013)

Forest fire risk in Europe for two time periods:

baseline (left) and 2041–2070 (right),



Smith and Stephenson (2013)

RCP4.5

RCP8.5

Optimal September navigation routes for hypothetical open

water (blue) and ice reinforced (red) ships seeking to cross the

Arctic Ocean in two future periods under two RCP scenarios



Source: Watkiss and Hunt (2010)

Approaches for economic assessment of

climate change impacts and adaptation



Exploring linkages and feedbacks between global

socio-economic and technological drivers,

greenhouse gas emissions, climate change,

biophysical impacts and economic impacts across

multiple scales and/or sectors

Integrated assessment approaches



Uncertainties in impact model projections

Model uncertainties

Input data used for calibration

Parameter uncertainties (within-model)

Structural uncertainties (between model)

Red cross: standard HadSM3 climate projection; default CATCHMOD version

Changes in median flow simulated with a hydrological model

(CATCHMOD) when model parameter uncertainties are combined with

the climateprediction.net (CP.net) ensemble of climate model projections

New et al. (2007)

Light blue curve: standard HadSM3 climate projection; 100 CATCHMOD versions




New et al. (2007)

Black curves: each climate projection; 100 CATCHMOD versions




New et al. (2007)

Dark blue curve; default CATCHMOD version; 449 climate projections




New et al. (2007)

Green curves: each CATCHMOD version; 449 climate projections




New et al. (2007)

Red curve: all possible combinations




New et al. (2007)



Simulated winter wheat yield from eight crop models

(M1–M8), ensemble mean (Mean) and observed (Obs)

Model runs for eight sites in Europe

N = number of growing seasons with

observed yields

Whiskers: min & max yields

Vertical dashed lines: observed min,

median and max yields

Source: Palosuo et al. (2011)

Observed

yields

Multi-model

mean yields



Uncertainties in impact model projections

Model uncertainties

Input data used for calibration

Parameter uncertainties (within-model)

Structural uncertainties (between model)

Projection uncertainties

Model sensitivity/robustness

Scenario assumptions (climate and non-climate)

Scenario application (e.g. number; downscaling methods)



Projecting climate alone is not sufficient

Socio-economic changes

Land-use and land-cover change

Other environmental changes

Sea-level rise

Climate change

Co

nsis

ten

cy

Re

fere

nce

co

nd

itio

ns

Vulnerability, exposure to stimuli and adaptive capacity

Cross cutting

Inte

ractions &

feedbacks




Scenarios for impact assessment

Scenarios of climate, socioeconomic development,

land use, other environmental factors

Earlier studies used IPCC scenarios (IS92 and SRES)

New scenarios framework (RCPs/SSPs) developed

independent of IPCC



Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)

O'Neill et al. (2014)



Examples of narrative scenarios: SSPs



Global population and GDP in 2050

and 2100 under different SSPs

Scenario data from IIASA (2012); Source: Hinkel et al., 2014



van Vuuren et al. (2014)

RCP/SSP scenario matrix architecture

RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway

SSP: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway

RCP



Outline

1. Definitions





6. Synthesis



Eight key risks* of climate change (1)

i. Death, injury, ill-health, or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying

coastal zones and small island developing states and other

small islands, due to storm surges, coastal flooding, and

sea level rise

ii. Severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods for large urban

populations due to inland flooding in some regions

iii. Extreme weather events leading to breakdown of

infrastructure networks and critical services such as

electricity, water supply, and health and emergency

services

iv. Mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme heat,

particularly for vulnerable urban populations and those

working outdoors in urban or rural areas

* Identified with high confidence IPCC (2014)



v. Food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems linked

to warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation variability

and extremes, particularly for poorer populations in urban

and rural settings

vi. Loss of rural livelihoods and income due to insufficient

access to drinking and irrigation water and reduced

agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers and

pastoralists with minimal capital in semi-arid regions

vii. Loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and

the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide

for coastal livelihoods, especially for fishing communities

in the tropics and the Arctic

viii. Loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems,

biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and

services they provide for livelihoods

Eight key risks* of climate change (2)

* Identified with high confidence IPCC (2014)



1. Unique and threatened systems. These include ecosystems

and cultures

2. Extreme weather events. Climate-change-related risks from

extreme events, such as heat waves, extreme precipitation, and

coastal flooding,

3. Distribution of impacts. Risks are unevenly distributed and are

generally greater for disadvantaged people and communities in

countries at all levels of development.

4. Global aggregate impacts. Risks relating to global aggregate

economic impacts

5. Large-scale singular events. Physical systems or ecosystems

that may be at risk of abrupt and irreversible changes

Five reasons for concern

IPCC (2014)



A global perspective on climate-related risks (assumes medium levels of exposure and vulnerability)

Oppenheimer et al. (2014)



Dependence of risk associated with a Reason for

Concern (RFC) on the level of climate change and

exposure and vulnerability of society (schematic)



Outline

1. Definitions





6. Synthesis



Mitigation and Adaptation

Mitigation is the reduction of greenhouse gas

emissions in order to prevent dangerous climate

change





change

Mitigation alone is not enough. The earth is

already committed to some climate warming




Commitment to future temperature rise

IPCC (2007)

~+0.6°C



Hadley Centre (2006)

Commitment to future sea-level rise





change

Mitigation alone is not enough. The earth is

already committed to some climate warming


Adaptation is the alteration of activities in order

to avoid or minimise the consequences of

climate change

Coping range and risk of exceedance

Based on Willows and Connell, (2003)



Some adaptation measures and their limitations

Kovats st al. (2014)



Key risks from climate change in Europe and the potential for

reducing risk through mitigation and adaptation for the present,

near-term (2030–2040), and longer term (2080–2100)




Selected published cost estimates for planned

adaptation in European countries.




Status of national adaptation strategies and

national adaptation plans in European countries

EEA. (2014)



climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu



Outline

1. Definitions





6. Synthesis



Synthesis

• In recent decades, changes in climate have caused

impacts on natural and human systems on all

continents and across the oceans IPCC (2014)

• There is a diversity of methods for assessing

future climate change impacts and their

uncertainties

• Eight key risks of future climate change are

identified in the IPCC AR5 with high confidence,

spanning sectors and regions

• Mitigation is required to reduce the most adverse

long-term impacts, but adaptation is also essential

to deal with unavoidable climate change



IPCC (2013)

http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/



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