ii - bi.go.id Komoditas Pangan... · 15 MODEL/Variabel Basic Extension (Fixed Effect) Dumi (Model)...
Transcript of ii - bi.go.id Komoditas Pangan... · 15 MODEL/Variabel Basic Extension (Fixed Effect) Dumi (Model)...
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.05
.1.1
5.2
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2002q3 2004q3 2006q3 2008q3 2010q3date
CV_Beras Fitted values
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.04
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.08
.1.1
2
2002q3 2004q3 2006q3 2008q3 2010q3date
CVGulaPasir Fitted values
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.3.4
.5
2002q3 2004q3 2006q3 2008q3 2010q3date
CVCabaiMerah Fitted values
.1.2
.3.4
2002q3 2004q3 2006q3 2008q3 2010q3date
CVBawangMerah Fitted values
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MODEL/Variabel Basic Extension
(Fixed Effect)
Jarak ke Jarkon 0.298 *** 0.273 ***
(0.071) (0.074)
Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.007 ** -0.008 **
(0.004) (0.004)
Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan) 0.034 *** 0.030 ***
(0.01) (0.011)
Pendapatan Perkapita Riil 0.266 ***
(0.064)
Stok -0.006
(0.011)
PDRB Deflator (Harga
Masukan)
1.350 **
(0.576)
Konstanta -3.504 *** -8.860 ***
(0.83) (1.687)
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MODEL/Variabel Basic Extension
(Fixed Effect)
Dumi (Model) Regional √ √
Dumi (Model) Waktu √ √
Observasi 900 875
R–squared 0.608 0.619
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MODEL/Variabel Basic Extension
(Fixed Effects)
Jarak ke Jarkon 0.229 ** 0.385 ***
(0.107) (0.120)
Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.008 -0.328 **
(0.007) (0.138)
Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan) -0.017 ** 0.000
(0.009) (0.000)
Pendapatan Perkapita Riil 0.079
(0.052)
Stok 0.061 ***
(0.018)
PDRB Deflator (Harga
Masukan)
0.531
(1.424)
Produktivitas -0.261 ***
(0.066)
Konstanta -2.149 * -1.084
(1.224) (1.902)
Dumi (Model) Regional √ –
Dumi (Model)Waktu √ √
Observasi 900 318
R–squared 0.603 0.242
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MODEL/Variabel Basic Extension
Random Effect
Jarak ke Jarkon -0.008 0.132
(0.017) (0.107)
Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.010 -0.187 ***
(0.012) (0.049)
Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan) 0.000 0.012
(0.000) (0.016)
Pendapatan Perkapita Riil 0.070
(0.068)
Stok -0.028 *
(0.016)
PDRB Deflator (Harga
Masukan)
0.055
(0.035)
Produktivitas -0.202
(0.318)
Konstanta 0.261 * 1.412 *
(0.036) (0.848)
Dumi (Model) Regional – –
Dumi (Model) Waktu – –
Observasi 936 591
R–squared 0.020 0.069
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MODEL/Variabel Basic Extension
Random Effects
Jarak ke Jarkon 0.023 0.023
(0.062) (0.063)
Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.033 -0.033
(0.063) (0.064)
Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan) 0.000 0.000
(0.084) (0.000)
Pendapatan Perkapita Riil -0.491
(0.310)
PDRB Deflator (Harga
Masukan)
1.141
(1.658)
Produktivitas -0.022
(0.125)
Konstanta 3.521 *** 9.370 **
(0.352) (3.848)
Dumi (Model) Regional – –
Dumi (Model) Waktu – –
Observasi 935 935
R–squared 0.0056 0.214
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MODEL/Variabel Basic Extension
(Fixed Effects)
Jarak ke Jarkon 0.301 *** 0.287 ***
(0.065) (0.063)
Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.267 *** -0.255 ***
(0.065) (0.063)
Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan) 0.018 -0.000 **
(0.08) (-0.000)
Pendapatan Perkapita Riil -0.388
(0.653)
PDRB Deflator (Harga
Input)
3.095
(4.103)
Produktivitas 0.072
(0.110)
Konstanta 1.786 *** 6.736
(0.43) (11.628)
Dumi (Model) Regional √ √
Dumi (Model) Waktu √ √
Observasi 898 934
R–squared 0.749 0.747
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Variabel Mean SD Min Max
Jarak ke Jarkon–5 kota
referensi 0.914 2.155 0.030 11.770
Infrastruktur (Jalan)–5
kota besar 0.547 1.361 0.006 11.563
Jarak ke Jarkon—Jakarta
1.607 2.112 0.127 11.771
Infrastruktur (Jalan) –
Jakarta 1.042 2.092 0.076 11.653
Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan) 2164.290 3198.688 0.000 21149.100
Pendapatan Perkapita Riil 14.323 0.636 13.194 16.241
PDRB Deflator (harga
input) 1.058 0.029 1.003 1.156
Variabel Mean SD Min Max
Harga beras relatif daerah
i dengan 5 kota referensi 0.136 0.141 0.000 0.949
Stok 0.384 1.195 -4.816 1.769
Produktivitas lahan 1.306 0.304 0.175 1.940
Variabel Mean SD Min Max
Harga minyak goreng
relatif daerah i dengan 5
kota referensi 0.244 0.227 0.000 1.106
Stok 1.793 1.647 -4.198 4.162
Produktivitas lahan 0.414 0.429 0.000 2.549
Variabel Mean SD Min Max
Harga gula pasir relatif
daerah i dengan 5 kota
referensi 0.236 0.172 0.000 0.819
Stok -0.474 1.192 -2.520 2.444
Produktivitas lahan 0.517 0.739 0.000 2.108
Variabel Mean SD Min Max
Harga cabai merah relatif
daerah i dengan daerah
Jakarta 3.560 1.964 -4.606 6.309
Produktivitas lahan 1.483 0.560 0.000 3.047
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Variabel Mean SD Min Max
Harga bawang merah
relatif daerah i dengan
daerah Jakarta 3.135 1.909 -4.606 6.312
Produktivitas 1.467 0.897 0.000 3.899
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MODEL / Variabel POOLED Fixed Effects Fixed Effects Fixed Effects First
Differencing (S) (T) (ST)
Jarak ke Sentra Ekonomi (Jarkon)
0.027 *** 0.246 *** 0.018 *** 0.273 *** -0.143
(0.004) (0.062) (0.004) (0.074) (0.180)
Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.010 -0.007 -0.008 * -0.008 ** 0.001
(0.004) (0.003) (0.004) (0.004) (0.002)
Pendapatan Perkapita Riil
-0.052 *** 0.317 *** -0.053 *** 0.266 *** 0.093
(0.007) (0.044) (0.007) (0.064) (0.145)
Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan)
0.031 *** 0.023 ** 0.027 *** 0.030 *** -0.001
(0.004) (0.011) (0.004) (0.011) (0.009)
Stok 0.047 *** -0.012 *** 0.034 *** -0.006 -0.005
(0.005) (0.012) (0.006) (0.011) (0.017)
PDRB Deflator (Harga input)
1.853 *** 1.667 *** -0.658 * 1.350 ** -0.084
(0.165) (0.147) (0.353) (0.576) (1.080)
Konstanta -1.339 *** -9.742 *** 1.449 *** -8.860 *** 0.007 *
(0.185) (1.158) (0.392) (1.687) (0.004)
Dumi Regional – √ – √ –
Dumi Waktu – – √ √ –
Observasi 875 875 875 875 850
R–squared 0.242 0.536 0.396 0.619 0.001
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MODEL / Variabel POOLED Fixed Effects Fixed Effects
Fixed Effects First
Differencing (S) (T) (ST)
Jarak ke Jarkon 0.316 *** 0.034 0.385 *** 0.195 -2.973
(0.112) (1.053) (0.120) (1.073) (5.677)
Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.216 * 0.016 -0.328 ** -0.030 0.019
(0.128) (0.105) (0.138) (0.109) (0.117)
Pendapatan Perkapita Riil
0.077 * 0.230 0.079 -0.120 -1.905 *
(0.046) (0.147) (0.052) (0.331) (1.156)
Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan)
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Stok 0.058 *** -0.045 0.061 *** -0.061 * -0.052
(0.018) (0.032) (0.018) (0.035) (0.091)
Produktivitas -0.249 *** 0.004 -0.261 *** 0.030 -0.060
(0.063) (0.049) (0.066) (0.058) (0.056)
PDRB Deflator (Harga input)
0.538 -0.756 0.531 -3.512 ** 0.593
(0.430) (0.757) (1.424) (1.748) (6.390)
Konstanta -1.046 -2.353 -1.084 5.177 0.020
(0.652) (1.858) (1.902) (6.448) (0.021)
Dumi Regional – √ – √ –
Dumi Waktu – – √ √ –
Observasi 318 318 318 318 308
R–squared 0.183 0.574 0.242 0.635 0.020
MODEL / Variabel Random Effect
Jarkon 0.138
(0.107)
Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.187 ***
(0.049)
Pendapatan Perkapita Riil 0.070
(0.068)
Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan) 0.012
(0.016)
Stok -0.028 *
(0.016)
Produktivitas 0.055
(0.035)
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MODEL / Variabel Random Effect
PDRB Deflator (Harga input) -0.202
(0.318)
Konstanta 1.412 *
(0.848)
Dumi Regional –
Dumi Waktu –
Observasi 591
R–squared 0.000
MODEL / Variabel POOLED Fixed Effects Fixed Effects Fixed Effects First
Differencing (S) (T) (ST)
Jarkon 0.250 ** 0.265 *** 0.263 ** 0.287 *** 0.206 **
(0.109) (0.062) (0.113) (0.063) (0.088)
Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.213 * -0.226 *** -0.232 ** -0.255 *** -0.170 *
(0.109) (0.061) (0.114) (0.063) (0.089)
Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan)
0.000 *** -0.000 ** 0.000 *** -0.000 ** -0.000
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (-0.000) (0.000)
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MODEL / Variabel POOLED Fixed Effects Fixed Effects Fixed Effects First
Differencing (S) (T) (ST)
Pendapatan Perkapita Riil
-1.410 *** -0.292 -1.401 *** -0.388 0.337
(0.157) (0.414) (0.157) (0.653) (2.739)
PDRB Deflator (Harga input)
9.452 6.363 17.297 3.095 21.510
(2.075) (1.834) (4.563) (4.103) (19.450)
Produktivitas -0.140 0.097 -0.142 0.072 -0.146
(0.070) (0.107) (0.070) (0.110) (0.183)
Konstanta 13.180 *** 1.841 5.114 6.736 -0.532
(2.305) (4.418) (4.469) (11.628) (0.645
Dumi Regional – √ – √ –
Dumi waktu – – √ √ –
Observasi 934 934 934 934 906
R–squared 0.1755 0.736 0.193 0.747 0.017