IHS Refining and Product Markets Service January 2015lib.keei.re.kr/site/keei/file/CERA Refining and...

IHS ENERGY

© 2014 IHS / ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

IHS ENERGY

OIL MARKETS & DOWNSTREAMRESEARCH

REFINING & PRODUCT MARKETS SERVICE

Service Overview & Deliverables Summary for 2015

JANUARY 2015

Kent Williamson

Commercial Manager

IHS Energy -Oil Market Services

+1 303 858 6005

[email protected]

IHS Energy – Research & Advisory ServicesWith ~1200 team members around the world conducting industry and market analysis, IHS is uniquely

positioned to provide the tools, content and expertise to meet the scope of our client’s needs.

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Single Point of Access:

IHS Connect

www.ihs.com/connect

Trusted

Brands

Upstream

Oil & Gas

Downstream &

Petro-Chemicals

Power, Gas, Coal

& Renewables

Market Fundamentals & Insights

Company, Asset & Opportunity Benchmarking

Business Landscape & Strategy

Formerly CERA,

Herold, and PFC

Energy

Formerly CERA,

Emerging Energy

Research, PFC Energy

McCloskey

and Energy Publishing

Operational Excellence & Risk Management

Formerly CERA

Purvin & Gertz,

and PFC Energy

With integrated content and analysis from across our broader portfolio of Industry,

Economics & Country Risk and Supply Chain research services

Decision Support Across the Energy Value Chain Around the World

Coverage Includes

Global & Regional

Refining & Product

Market Services

Market Intelligence Service (MIS) – PFC oil market fundamental service integration to enhance data granularity and sharpened short term focus.

Midstream Liquids Service – North America (MLS-NA) – data & analysis on key North American midstream liquids topics including existing pipelines, pipeline investment and crude by rail.

Global Outlook for Alternative Liquids (GOAL) – production & penetration of alternative liquids in 135 countries through 2025 & historical since 2005

Refinery Monitoring Service (RMS) – refinery unit capacities, modeled production yields , margins & future capacity additions; regional indicative margins, crack spreads & oil product specs3

IHS Energy Oil Markets & Downstream Services OverviewFollowing the integration of PFC Energy, our 2014 global energy research portfolio has expanded with

new services, enhanced regional coverage and expanded offering content.

Lubricants and Base Oils

Companies and Markets

Natural Gas Liquids

Markets

Downstream Country

Profiles and Analysis

GLOBAL NORTH

AMERICA

(US & CANADA)

LATIN

AMERICA

EUROPE/

CIS/AFRICA

ASIA/

MIDDLE EAST

Geographic Modules

Crude Oil Markets

Refining & Product

Markets

Other Services

DMS-APDMS-

FSU

Downstream Company

Profiles and Analyses

Retail MarketsGlobal Retail

Service

Refinery Monitoring Service (RMS)

Downstream Monitoring Services

Downstream Competition

& Financial Benchmarking

GOAL

Additio

nal Valu

e C

hain

Module

s

MISMIS &

MLS- NAMIS

Global

Lubricants

Service

Petchem

Feedstocks

Asia/ME

Canadian

Oil Sands

Dialogue

Waterborne

LPG

IHS Energy Oil Market & Downstream Services Providing regional and global market, company, and cost insights across the oil markets value chain

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Global Scope

Local detail

OPEC/non-OPEC

Global totals

Regions (6)

Subcontinents (6)

Countries (150)

U.S. PADDs

Refining & Products

Demand by product

Operating utilization

Projects & capacity rationalization

Prices & Margins

Regional trade by major product

Regional, country & PADD analyses

Natural Gas Liquids (NGL/LPG)

Ethane, Propane, Normal & Isobutane, Natural Gasoline

Detailed analyses

Forecasts of supply, demand & trade

Pricing & freight

Weekly Economics

Stock Reports

Petrochemical Feedstocks

Naphtha, Ethylene, Propylene, Benzene, Paraxylene

Supply & regional demand outlooks

Cracking economics

Downtime outlook

Pricing & margins

Project impacts

Insights & Forecasts

Short & long-term outlooks

Detailed analyses & reporting

Forecasts available for easy download

Proprietary methods & industry indices

World Class Experts

Market Drivers

Global economics

Geopolitical forces

Capital factors

Adjacent industries

Cross fuel issues

Renewable energy

World balances & trade

Global Retail

(55 countries)

Gasoline and Diesel retail demand

Monthly Prices & Margins

Quarterly Retail Trends

Analysis by country and market

Lubricants & Base Oils

Base oil margins

Global finished lubricant markets and competitors

Global lubricants demand database

Intl marine lubricant markets and competitors

*Finished lubricants & marine lubricants demand models also available

Downstream Country Profiles (150 markets)

Downstream value chain analysis by country & across seven regions (ME-AF, Asia, EU, CIS, LA, NA)

• Refining, midstream & marketing

• Regulatory

• Competitive landscape

Canadian Oil

Sands Dialogue

Publically released Independent analysis addressing the benefits, costs, and impacts of choices associated with Canadian oil sands development

Research focus based on facilitated dialogues with community, industry and government stakeholders

Downstream Company Profiles (24 companies)

Benchmarking of refining and marketing businesses of major operators:

• Strategies

• Asset portfolio

• Operating metrics

• High-level financial s

Downstream Financial Benchmarking

Detailed financial performance benchmarking (earning-focused) of individual downstream companies vs. industry averages.

Covers IOCs & regional players in North America, Europe/FSU & Asia

Waterborne LPG

LPG flow data: monthly gross & net export / import volumes by vessel, terminal, destination, source

Propane/Butane/Isobutane volumes differentiated

Vessel Schedules

Spot Prices, freight rates, netback tables

Crude

Produced streams

Production forecasts

Trade by crude type & stream

Crude grade prices & market spreads

Condensate trade

Regional, sub-region & country details

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Refining & Product Markets: Global, NA, LA, EU-CIS-AF, Asia-ME

Bench-

marking

Bench-

marking

Asset

Require-

ments

Asset

Require-

ments

Feedstock

Options

Feedstock

Options

Content and deliverables :

– Detailed data & analysis on refining capacity &

margins, product balances, trade, prices

– Monthly & quarterly market updates on global &

regional refined product markets

– Annual strategic planning workbook: detailed long-

term outlooks (25 years) for crude oil refining &

refined product supply, demand, trade and pricing

– Timely alerts & analysis

Content and deliverables :

– Detailed data & analysis on refining capacity &

margins, product balances, trade, prices

– Monthly & quarterly market updates on global &

regional refined product markets

– Annual strategic planning workbook: detailed long-

term outlooks (25 years) for crude oil refining &

refined product supply, demand, trade and pricing

– Timely alerts & analysis

Benefits and functionality

– Master refined product supply & demand

fundamentals, globally & regionally

– Refined product coverage includes gasoline,

diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil etc.

– Make long-term investment decisions in new

capacity & infrastructure

– Assess the impacts of product flows, refinery

economics and pricing on refined product markets

– Understand future trends in biofuel demand and

policies on costs & demand

Benefits and functionality

– Master refined product supply & demand

fundamentals, globally & regionally

– Refined product coverage includes gasoline,

diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil etc.

– Make long-term investment decisions in new

capacity & infrastructure

– Assess the impacts of product flows, refinery

economics and pricing on refined product markets

– Understand future trends in biofuel demand and

policies on costs & demand

Long Term

Strategies

Long Term

Strategies

Downstream

Economics

Downstream

Economics

Crude Oil

Monetization

Crude Oil

Monetization

*Offered as a stand-alone subscription (global only or global + regional) or within IHS oil market services suites

Refining & Product Markets: Now Enhanced with PFC Global Outlook for Alternative Liquids

Biofuels Data:

• Supply/demand forecasts for fuel ethanol & biodiesel by country (135 countries)

• Production capacity forecasts for ethanol & biodiesel facilities by country

• Trade flows

• Blend forecasts by country

• List of active & expected biofuel mandates & forecasts of compliance

CTL/GTL/Methanol Data:

• Supply/demand forecasts for total products from GTL, CTL, & fuel methanol by country (135

countries)

• Supply/demand forecasts by product from GTL & CTL (i.e. diesel, naphtha, jet fuel, etc.)

• GTL & CTL project list with our view on each project (probability of moving forward, projected year of

completion)

Annual Alternative Fuels Outlook:

• Slide deck covering changes and explanations for this year’s forecast

Periodic Reports & Insights:

• Analytical pieces on key developments in the industry

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Coming Soon: Refining & Product Markets to be Further Enhanced with PFC Refinery Monitoring Service

Refining Capacity Database:

• Historical and current refining capacities by plant (800+ refineries)

Refining Capacity Additions Database:

• Refining project listings

• IHS-PFC view on projected start date and probability of the project moving forward

Product Specifications Database:

• By region, by country, by product, by specification type detail

• Annual data to provide trends and changes in regulations

Quarterly Investment & Competitiveness Review Memos:

• Updates of key investments and shutdowns

• Reviews of refining utilization, production and margins by region

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Global Refining & Product

Markets Deliverables

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Global Refining & Product Markets: Report Deliverables

Report Deliverable (PDF, PPT) Frequency Description

Periodic Reports & Presentation Files Periodic Various periodic reports offering insight on key business trends &

critical issues, focusing on long-term implications, posted to Global

and/or regional RPM Markets modules as applicable. Presentations

from various IHS Energy meetings, conferences & webinars.

Global Crude Oil Markets Mid-Week

Briefing and US DOE Statistics

Dashboard**

Weekly Analysis of Energy Information Administration (EIA) statistics

published weekly, typically on Wednesdays. Contains Flash

dashboard of weekly oil market statistics, supplemented with IHS

observations & forward looking analysis.

Refinery Status Report Monthly Provides the latest update on global refinery status including sales,

shut downs and planned shut downs. Refinery status information is

gathered from various public sources including news reports and

refining company records.

Alternative Fuels Outlook** Annually Overview of the global supply and demand forecast for ethanol,

biodiesel, CTL, GTL, and fuel methanol. Highlights of key market

and regional trends and explanation of the forecasts through 2040.

Refining & Product Markets Outlook

for Global Oil Prices & Margins

Quarterly Annual global crude oil and refined products price outlooks to 2040,

updated quarterly. Presentation offers latest messages & outlooks

for long-term prices & margins, including key changes to IHS view

from previous quarter. (Supplements quarterly Outlook for Crude Oil

& Refining Margins data files).

Refining & Product Markets Global

Annual Strategic Workbook

Annually IHS Energy's annual strategic workbook for Refining and Product

Markets presents a detailed analysis of the global refining industry

and refined product markets. (Supplements ASW data files).

**New deliverable 9

Global Refining & Product Markets: Data Deliverables

Data Deliverable (XLS) Frequency Description

Global Crude Oil Markets Outlook for

Oil Market Fundamentals**

Monthly Global liquids demand-supply balance by region (monthly &

quarterly for next 1.5 to 2.5 years, and annually to 2040); and global

oil consumption and production outlooks by country, both non-

OPEC and OPEC (monthly, quarterly & annual for next 1.5 to 2.5

years). (Note: Incorporates 5 legacy PFC MIS oil market

fundamental data files into one. For legacy IHS clients, frequency of

deliverable increased from quarterly to monthly, and granularity of

short-term consumption and production outlooks increased from

regional to country levels.).

International Energy Agency OECD

Inventory Statistics

Monthly Monthly IEA OECD inventory statistics

Outlook for Global Oil Prices &

Refining Margins

Quarterly Monthly and quarterly global oil prices and margins outlook through

2015, and annual outlook through 2040. Short-term view is updated

monthly, long-term view is updated quarterly. Supplements Outlook

for Global Prices & Margins presentation.

Global Outlook for Alternative Liquids** Bi-annually Forecasts for ethanol, biodiesel, CLT/GTL (diesel, naphtha and jet),

and fuel methanol demand, supply, trade balances, capacity, and

blends through 2040.

Refining & Product Markets Global

Annual Strategic Workbook

Annually Data tables provide a high level summary of crude runs, refined

product supply, demand and trade for major products by year out to

2040. These tables also include a summary of refining capacity,

projects and expected future investments required to meet expected

product demand. Supplement RPM ASW presentation slides.

**New deliverable 10

North America Refining &

Product Markets Deliverables

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North America Refining & Product Markets:Reports & Data Deliverables


Refining & Product Markets North

America Short-Term Outlook

Monthly Presentation offers latest messages & outlooks for short-term prices &

margins, including key changes to IHS view from previous month.

Delivered with & supplements by Short-Term Outlook data tables.


America Long-Term Oil Price &

Refining Margins Outlook

Quarterly Presentation offers latest messages & outlooks for long-term prices &

margins, including key changes to IHS view from previous quarter.

Delivered with and supplements Long-Term Outlook data tables.


America Market Briefing

Quarterly Concise, written market commentary on key North American refining

and refined product market trends.


America Annual Strategic Workbook

Annually Presentation presents a detailed analysis of the North American (U.S.

& Canada) refining industry and refined product markets. Delivered

with and supplements ASW data files.




Monthly Monthly & quarterly refined products 2 year price outlook updated

monthly. Delivered with & supplements by Short-Term Outlook

presentation slides.


America Long-Term Oil Price &

Refining Margins Outlook

Quarterly Annual global crude oil price and refining margins outlook to 2040,

updated quarterly. Delivered with and supplements Long-Term Outlook




Annually Data tables provide a high level summary of crude runs, refined product

supply, demand and trade for major products by year out to 2040.

These tables also include a summary of refining capacity, projects and

expected future investments required to meet expected product

demand. Delivered with & supplements ASW presentation slides.

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Latin America Refining &


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Latin America Refining & Product Markets: Reports & Data Deliverables


Refining & Product Markets Latin


Monthly Presentation offers latest messages & outlooks for short-term prices

& margins, including key changes to IHS view from previous month.

Delivered with and supplements Short-Term Outlook data file.



Annually Presentation offers a detailed analysis of the Latin America

(including Mexico) refining industry and refined product markets.

Delivered with and supplements ASW data files.





monthly for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru.

Delivered with and supplements the Short-Term Outlook




Annually Data tables provide detailed country-level forecasts of crude runs,

refined product supply, demand and trade for major products by

year out to 2040. Delivered with and supplements ASW


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Europe/CIS/Africa Refining &


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Europe/CIS/Africa Refining & Product Markets: Reports & Data Deliverables


Refining & Product Markets

Europe/CIS/Africa Short-Term

Outlook





Europe/CIS/Africa Long-Term Oil

Price & Refining Margins Outlook



Delivered with and supplements Long-Term Outlook data file.


Europe/CIS/Africa Market Briefing

Quarterly Concise, written market commentary on Europe/CIS/Africa refining and

refined product markets.


Europe/CIS/Africa Annual Strategic

Workbook

Annually Presentation offers a detailed analysis of the Europe/CIS/Africa refining

industry and refined product markets. Delivered with and supplements

ASW data files.



Europe/CIS/Africa Short-Term

Outlook


monthly. Delivered with and supplements Short-Term Outlook



Europe/CIS/Africa Long-Term Oil



updated quarterly. Delivered with and supplements Long-Term Outlook



Europe/CIS/Africa Annual Strategic

Workbook

Annually Data tables provide a detailed country-level forecast of crude runs,

refined product supply, demand and trade for major products by year out

to 2040. Delivered with and supplements ASW presentation slides.

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Asia / Middle East Refining &


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Asia/Middle East Refining & Product Markets:Reports & Data Deliverables



Asia/Middle East Short-Term

Outlook





Asia/Middle East Long-Term Oil




Delivered with and supplements Long-Term Outlook data file.

Refining & Product Markets Asia &

Middle East Market Briefing

Quarterly Concise, written market commentary on Asia & Middle East refining and

refined product markets.


Asia/Middle East Annual Strategic

Workbook

Annually Presentation offers a detailed analysis of the Asia/Middle East refining

industry and refined product markets. Delivered with and supplements

ASW data files.



Asia/Middle East Short-Term

Outlook


monthly. Delivered with and supplements Short-Term Outlook



Asia/Middle East Long-Term Oil



updated quarterly. Delivered with and supplements Long-Term

Outlook presentation slides.


Asia/Middle East Annual Strategic

Workbook

Annually Data tables provide a detailed country-level forecast of crude runs,

refined product supply, demand and trade for major products by year

out to 2040. Delivered with and supplements ASW presentation slides.

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© 2014 IHS. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal

client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal

notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor

are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or

expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more information, please contact IHS at [email protected], +1 800 IHS CARE

(from North American locations), or +44 (0) 1344 328 300 (from outside North America). All products, company names or other marks appearing in this publication are

the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners. V1.1-24.03.14

Americas:

+1.800.IHS.CARE (+1.800.447.2273);

[email protected]

Europe, Middle East, and Africa:

+44.(0).1344.328.300;

[email protected]

Asia and the Pacific Rim:

+604.291.3600;

[email protected]

Contact us

IHS Refining and Product Markets Service January 2015lib.keei.re.kr/site/keei/file/CERA Refining and...

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