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IHS Asia LPG Seminar 2016 · Baltic Index STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 6 Baltic Index $ Per Ton...
Transcript of IHS Asia LPG Seminar 2016 · Baltic Index STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 6 Baltic Index $ Per Ton...
Outlook for the VLGC fleet
June 14th 2016
IHS Asia LPG Seminar 2016
Forward-looking Statements
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“will” and similar expressions, such as “going forward”. These forward–looking statements reflect BW LPG’s reasonable beliefs, intentions and current expectations concerning,
among other things, BW LPG’s results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth and strategies. Forward–looking statements include statements regarding:
objectives, goals, strategies, outlook and growth prospects; future plans, events or performance and potential for future growth; liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditures;
economic outlook and industry trends; developments of BW LPG’s markets; the impact of regulatory initiatives; and the strength of BW LPG’s competitors. Forward–looking
statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The forward–looking statements in
this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management’s examination of
historical operating trends, data contained in BW LPG’s records and other data available from third parties. Although BW LPG believes that these assumptions were reasonable
when made, these assumptions are inherently subject to significant known and unknown risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors which are difficult or
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must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this presentation relates is available only to relevant
persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. 2
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80 Years of Delivering Energy
BW LPG Fleet List
Modern fleet of 36 VLGCs / 5 LGCs / 6 newbuild VLGCs built at leading shipyards
OWNED VLGCs
Name Year built Shipyard Ownership (%)
BW Aries 2014 Hyundai H.I. 100%
BW Austria 2009 DSME 100%
BW Birch 2007 Hyundai H.I. 100%
BW Borg 2001 Kawasaki H.I. 100%
BW Boss 2001 Kawasaki H.I. 100%
BW Carina 2015 Hyundai H.I. 100%
BW Cedar 2007 Hyundai H.I. 100%
BW Confidence 2006 Mitsubishi H.I. 100%
BW Denise 2001 Stocznia Gdynia 100%
BW Empress 2005 Mitsubishi H.I. 100%
BW Energy 2002 Kawasaki H.I. 100%
BW Gemini 2015 Hyundai H.I. 100%
BW Leo 2015 Hyundai H.I 100%
BW Liberty 2007 DSME 100%
BW Libra 2015 Hyundai H.I 100%
BW Lord 2008 DSME 100%
BW Loyalty 2008 DSME 100%
BW Maple 2007 Hyundai H.I. 100%
BW Oak 2008 Hyundai H.I. 100%
BW Orion 2015 Hyundai H.I 100%
BW Pine 2011 Kawasaki S.C. 100%
BW Prince 2007 Hyundai H.I. 100%
BW Princess 2008 Hyundai H.I. 100%
BW Sakura 2010 Mitsubishi H.I. 100%
BW Trader 2006 DSME 100%
BW Tucana 2016 Hyundai H.I. 100%
BW Vision 2001 Kawasaki H.I. 100%
BW Volans 2016 Hyundai H.I. 100%
Berge Summit 1990 Mitsubishi H.I. 100%
Total (29 vessels)
CHARTERED VLGCs
Name Year built Shipyard Charter type
Berge Nantong 2006 Hyundai H.I. Time charter
Berge Ningbo 2006 Hyundai H.I. Time charter
BW Broker 2007 Kawasaki H.I. Bare-boat
BW Kyoto 2010 Mitsubishi H.I. Time charter
BW Tokyo 2009 Mitsubishi H.I. Time charter
Yuricosmos 2010 Mitsubishi H.I. Time charter
Yuyo Spirits 2009 Mitsubishi H.I. Time charter
Total (7 vessels)
OWNED LGCs
Name Year built Shipyard Ownership (%)
BW Havfrost 1991 Kvaerner-Govan 86%
BW Havis 1993 Kvaerner-Govan 78%
BW Helios 1992 Kvaerner-Govan 100%
BW Nantes 2003 Kawasaki S.C. 100%
BW Nice 2003 Kawasaki S.C. 100%
Total (5 vessels)
NEWBUILD VLGCs
Name Delivery Shipyard Ownership
Hull No. 2351 2016 DSME 100%
Hull No. 2352 2016 DSME 100%
Hull No. 2353 2016 DSME 100%
Hull No. 2354 2017 DSME Time charter
Hull No. 2335 2020 Mitsubishi H.I. Time charter
Hull No. 2336 2020 Mitsubishi H.I. Time charter
Total (6 vessels)
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5
Our Blue Chip Customer Base
National
Oil Companies
International
Oil Companies
International
Trading
Companies
5
STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Baltic Index
6
Baltic Index $ Per Ton (Ras Tanura - Chiba)FOR CHART:
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Baltic$ Per Ton as % of
Current $28.9
Last 5 Years Median $32.4 89%
Last 10 Years Median $45.4 64%
All Time Median $42.3 68%
Last 5 Years Average $33.2 87%
Last 10 Years Average $47.4 61%
All Time Average $49.2 59%
Trailing Ten Year Monthly VLGC Spot Rates ($ Per Day)
-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
10Y High / Low 10Y Avg. - $37,145 2014 - $77,255 2015 - $88,128 2016 - $34,000
Source: Clarksons, BW LPG analysis
STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
7 Source: EIA, BW LPG analysis
PADD 3 inventory draw/build drives MB C3 price in short term
Inverse relationship with a lag – higher builds = lower prices and vice versa
Propane prices rallied in February and March, driven by accelerated pace of inventory drawdowns
Prices must strike a balance between encouraging production growth and being competitive in the international market
Change in PADD 3 Propane Inventories Relative to 5 Year Average (mmbl) vs % Change in Mont Belvieu Propane Price (shaded region indicates draw season)
(8.0)
(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
-
10%
20%
30%
Ch
ange
in In
ven
torie
s vs 5 Ye
ar Ave
rageM
B P
rop
ane
Mo
nth
ly P
rice
Ch
ange
Δ in PADD3 Inventories v Avg C3 % Price Change
STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
8 Source: Bloomberg, BW LPG analysis
Mont Belvieu propane has strengthened considerably relative to
crude oil & Asian propane
Mont Belvieu Propane as % of WTI
Relative Performance MB C3 vs AFE (Jan 1 2016 = 100)
-
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
US Propane
Asia Propane
STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
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International Price Spreads The main driver of VLGC spot market weakness; geographic LPG price spreads are the main VLGC freight price-setting
mechanism in the short term
Asia - US Propane Spread ($ Per Ton) Europe - US Propane Spread ($ Per Ton)
($100)
-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Spread (RHS) Asia Propane (LHS) US Propane (LHS)
Europe - US Propane Spread ($ Per Ton) Europe Naphtha Propane Spread ($ Per Ton)
($100)
-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Spread (RHS) EU Propane (LHS) US Propane (LHS)
MEG - US Propane Spread ($ Per Ton)
($100)
-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Spread (RHS) MEG Propane (LHS) US Propane (LHS)
Europe Naphtha Propane Spread ($ Per Ton) Asia Naphtha Propane Spread ($ Per Ton)
($100)
($50)
-
$50
$100
$150
$200
-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
Spread (RHS) EU Naphtha (LHS) EU Propane (LHS)
STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL VLGC Fleet Development; 221 ships on the water, 59 on order
10 Source: Clarksons, BW LPG analysis [1] As of May 2016
VLGC Fleet Profile [1] - Average Age: 9.3 Years BW LPG Market Share (Owned + Operated VLGCs)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
19
80>
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Nu
mb
er
of V
LGC
s
BW LPG Owned & Operated Other VLGC Fleet Other VLGC Newbuildings
>20 Years: 38 Vessels / 17% of Fleet
VLGC 2016 Deliveries
6
2
11
4 4
2
5
8
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan-2016 Feb-2016 Mar-2016 Apr-2016 May-2016 Jun-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016
STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
VLGC Fleet Growth & Rates
11 Source: Clarksons, BW LPG analysis
Annual VLGC Fleet Growth vs. VLGC TCE Rates
Fleet Growth Average Median Low High
Since 2009 7% 4% 0% 22%
Last Five Years 8% 5% 0% 22%
Last Ten Years 8% 5% 0% 22%
All Available Time 5% 4% (2%) 22%
-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
(5%)
-
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fleet Growth
Fleet Growth Forecast
TCE Rates
STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
12 Source: Waterborne, Poten, BW LPG analysis
Q1 2016 Seaborne LPG Trade Overview US exports grew ~50% year on year while Chinese LPG imports increased by ~65%
Comments
Exports
Middle Eastern exports moderately higher
US LPG export growth driven by increase in volumes
from Enterprise and Sunoco; ~45% of total exports
bound for Far East
N. Europe volumes increased slightly due to positive
arbitrage economics to Asia
African volumes remained steady
Imports
Chinese LPG import growth led by term volumes
Indian imports increased but offset by Haldia import
terminal downtime
Japanese imports decline slightly, but US now
accounts for greater share of import slate (~40%)
Korean imports up due to start up of SK Gas PDH plant
Q1 2015/16 Seaborne LPG Exports by Country/Region (Mt)
Q1 2015/16 Seaborne LPG Imports by Country/Region (Mt)
China
Japan
India
Korea
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
Middle East U.S.A. North Europe North Africa West Africa
Q1 2015 Q1 2016
-
1
2
3
4
5
China Japan India Korea Indonesia
Q1 2015 Q1 2016
STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
U.S. Ton-Mile Demand
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[1] U.S. export volumes reached 6.5mt in Q1 2016, a 49% year on year increase (Annualized FY2016 26mt v FY2015 20.5mt)
Monthly U.S. LPG Exports By Product Type (MM Tons)
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Propane Butane
[2] Share of U.S. exports headed East continues to grow (Annualized FY2016 45% v FY2015 38%) at expense of shorter distance destinations
US LPG Exports By Destination (2016 Annualized Data)
3% 8% 17% 23%
38% 45%
16% 14%
18% 20%
16% 13%
39% 43%
42% 29% 24% 19%
43% 35%
22% 27% 22% 23%
-
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Asia Europe Latam & Caribs Other
STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
U.S. Propane Snapshot – Weekly Figures
14 Source: EIA, BW LPG analysis
Weekly U.S. Propane Production (Thousand Barrels per Day)
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Weekly U.S. Propane Demand (Thousand Barrels per Day)
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Weekly U.S. Propane Exports (Thousand Barrels per Day)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Trailing Five Year Weekly PADD 3 Propane Inventories (MBBls)
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
5Y High / Low 5Y Avg. 2016
STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
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U.S. LPG Supply – Demand Outlook Production & exports keep increasing as domestic consumption declines
EIA 2016 – 2017e U.S. LPG production growth of 3% and 4%
EIA 2016 – 2017e U.S. LPG domestic demand decline of 0% and -4%
EIA 2016 – 2017e U.S. LPG net export growth of 30% and 20%
U.S. LPG Snapshot (Mt) - EIA June 2016 STEO
50.3 54.4
59.9
68.5 73.7 75.9
78.9
49.4 51.2 56.0 53.7 53.3 53.2 51.2
0.4 1.8
5.8 11.7 18.5
24.0 28.9
0.4
1.4
3.2
2.0
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2011Actual 2012Actual 2013Actual 2014Actual 2015Actual 2016Forecast 2017Forecast
US Production US Domestic Consumption Net Exports Δ in Inventories
STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
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Summary
VLGC rates have declined due to narrower LPG price spreads and high fleet growth
Fleet growth set to revert to median levels in coming years
Fundamental drivers of LPG tonne-mile demand are intact
Volumes and distances travelled are both growing
U.S. LPG production will keep growing while domestic consumption could decline