IHS Asia LPG Seminar 2016 · Baltic Index STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 6 Baltic Index $ Per Ton...

17
Outlook for the VLGC fleet June 14 th 2016 IHS Asia LPG Seminar 2016

Transcript of IHS Asia LPG Seminar 2016 · Baltic Index STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 6 Baltic Index $ Per Ton...

Page 1: IHS Asia LPG Seminar 2016 · Baltic Index STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 6 Baltic Index $ Per Ton (Ras Tanura - Chiba) FOR CHART:-10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Outlook for the VLGC fleet

June 14th 2016

IHS Asia LPG Seminar 2016

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Forward-looking Statements

This presentation has been produced by BW LPG Limited (“BW LPG”) exclusively for information purposes. This presentation may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in

part, to any other person.

Matters discussed in this presentation and any materials distributed in connection with this presentation may constitute or include forward–looking statements. Forward–looking

statements are statements that are not historical facts and may be identified by words such as “anticipates”, “believes”, “continues”, “estimates”, “expects”, “intends”, “may”, “should”,

“will” and similar expressions, such as “going forward”. These forward–looking statements reflect BW LPG’s reasonable beliefs, intentions and current expectations concerning,

among other things, BW LPG’s results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth and strategies. Forward–looking statements include statements regarding:

objectives, goals, strategies, outlook and growth prospects; future plans, events or performance and potential for future growth; liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditures;

economic outlook and industry trends; developments of BW LPG’s markets; the impact of regulatory initiatives; and the strength of BW LPG’s competitors. Forward–looking

statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The forward–looking statements in

this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management’s examination of

historical operating trends, data contained in BW LPG’s records and other data available from third parties. Although BW LPG believes that these assumptions were reasonable

when made, these assumptions are inherently subject to significant known and unknown risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors which are difficult or

impossible to predict and are beyond its control. Forward–looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and such risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other

important factors could cause the actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity of BW LPG or the industry to differ materially from those results expressed or implied in

this presentation by such forward–looking statements. No representation is made that any of these forward–looking statements or forecasts will come to pass or that any forecast

result will be achieved and you are cautioned not to place any undue influence on any forward–looking statement.

No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made by BW LPG, its affiliates or representatives as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness,

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change materially and without notice. In giving this presentation, none of BW LPG, its affiliates or representatives undertakes any obligation to provide the recipient with access to

any additional information or to update this presentation or any information or to correct any inaccuracies in any such information. The information contained in this presentation

should be considered in the context of the circumstances prevailing at the time and has not been, and will not be, updated to reflect material developments which may occur after the

date of the presentation.

The contents of this presentation are not to be construed as legal, business, investment or tax advice. Each recipient should consult its own legal, business, investment or tax

adviser as to legal, business, investment or tax advice. By attending this presentation you acknowledge that you will be solely responsible for your own assessment of the market and

the market position of BW LPG and that you will conduct your own analysis and be solely responsible for forming your own view on the potential future performance of the business

of BW LPG. This presentation must be read in conjunction with the recent financial information and the disclosures therein.

This presentation and the information contained herein are not an offer of securities for sale in the United States and are not for publication or distribution to persons in the United

States (within the meaning of Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”)). The securities referred to herein have not been and will not be

registered under the Securities Act and may not be offered or sold in the United States except pursuant to an exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act. Any

failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of United States securities laws. BW LPG has not registered and does not intend to register its securities in the United

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the “Prospectus Directive”), this presentation is only addressed to and is only directed at qualified investors in that Member State within the meaning of the Prospectus Directive.

For the UK based investors–This presentation is only being distributed to and is only directed at persons in the United Kingdom that are (i) investment professionals falling within

Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the “Order”) or (ii) high net worth entities, and other persons to whom

this presentation may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This presentation

must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this presentation relates is available only to relevant

persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. 2

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3

80 Years of Delivering Energy

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BW LPG Fleet List

Modern fleet of 36 VLGCs / 5 LGCs / 6 newbuild VLGCs built at leading shipyards

OWNED VLGCs

Name Year built Shipyard Ownership (%)

BW Aries 2014 Hyundai H.I. 100%

BW Austria 2009 DSME 100%

BW Birch 2007 Hyundai H.I. 100%

BW Borg 2001 Kawasaki H.I. 100%

BW Boss 2001 Kawasaki H.I. 100%

BW Carina 2015 Hyundai H.I. 100%

BW Cedar 2007 Hyundai H.I. 100%

BW Confidence 2006 Mitsubishi H.I. 100%

BW Denise 2001 Stocznia Gdynia 100%

BW Empress 2005 Mitsubishi H.I. 100%

BW Energy 2002 Kawasaki H.I. 100%

BW Gemini 2015 Hyundai H.I. 100%

BW Leo 2015 Hyundai H.I 100%

BW Liberty 2007 DSME 100%

BW Libra 2015 Hyundai H.I 100%

BW Lord 2008 DSME 100%

BW Loyalty 2008 DSME 100%

BW Maple 2007 Hyundai H.I. 100%

BW Oak 2008 Hyundai H.I. 100%

BW Orion 2015 Hyundai H.I 100%

BW Pine 2011 Kawasaki S.C. 100%

BW Prince 2007 Hyundai H.I. 100%

BW Princess 2008 Hyundai H.I. 100%

BW Sakura 2010 Mitsubishi H.I. 100%

BW Trader 2006 DSME 100%

BW Tucana 2016 Hyundai H.I. 100%

BW Vision 2001 Kawasaki H.I. 100%

BW Volans 2016 Hyundai H.I. 100%

Berge Summit 1990 Mitsubishi H.I. 100%

Total (29 vessels)

CHARTERED VLGCs

Name Year built Shipyard Charter type

Berge Nantong 2006 Hyundai H.I. Time charter

Berge Ningbo 2006 Hyundai H.I. Time charter

BW Broker 2007 Kawasaki H.I. Bare-boat

BW Kyoto 2010 Mitsubishi H.I. Time charter

BW Tokyo 2009 Mitsubishi H.I. Time charter

Yuricosmos 2010 Mitsubishi H.I. Time charter

Yuyo Spirits 2009 Mitsubishi H.I. Time charter

Total (7 vessels)

OWNED LGCs

Name Year built Shipyard Ownership (%)

BW Havfrost 1991 Kvaerner-Govan 86%

BW Havis 1993 Kvaerner-Govan 78%

BW Helios 1992 Kvaerner-Govan 100%

BW Nantes 2003 Kawasaki S.C. 100%

BW Nice 2003 Kawasaki S.C. 100%

Total (5 vessels)

NEWBUILD VLGCs

Name Delivery Shipyard Ownership

Hull No. 2351 2016 DSME 100%

Hull No. 2352 2016 DSME 100%

Hull No. 2353 2016 DSME 100%

Hull No. 2354 2017 DSME Time charter

Hull No. 2335 2020 Mitsubishi H.I. Time charter

Hull No. 2336 2020 Mitsubishi H.I. Time charter

Total (6 vessels)

4

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Our Blue Chip Customer Base

National

Oil Companies

International

Oil Companies

International

Trading

Companies

5

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STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Baltic Index

6

Baltic Index $ Per Ton (Ras Tanura - Chiba)FOR CHART:

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Baltic$ Per Ton as % of

Current $28.9

Last 5 Years Median $32.4 89%

Last 10 Years Median $45.4 64%

All Time Median $42.3 68%

Last 5 Years Average $33.2 87%

Last 10 Years Average $47.4 61%

All Time Average $49.2 59%

Trailing Ten Year Monthly VLGC Spot Rates ($ Per Day)

-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

January February March April May June July August September October November December

10Y High / Low 10Y Avg. - $37,145 2014 - $77,255 2015 - $88,128 2016 - $34,000

Source: Clarksons, BW LPG analysis

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STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

7 Source: EIA, BW LPG analysis

PADD 3 inventory draw/build drives MB C3 price in short term

Inverse relationship with a lag – higher builds = lower prices and vice versa

Propane prices rallied in February and March, driven by accelerated pace of inventory drawdowns

Prices must strike a balance between encouraging production growth and being competitive in the international market

Change in PADD 3 Propane Inventories Relative to 5 Year Average (mmbl) vs % Change in Mont Belvieu Propane Price (shaded region indicates draw season)

(8.0)

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

(40%)

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

-

10%

20%

30%

Ch

ange

in In

ven

torie

s vs 5 Ye

ar Ave

rageM

B P

rop

ane

Mo

nth

ly P

rice

Ch

ange

Δ in PADD3 Inventories v Avg C3 % Price Change

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STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

8 Source: Bloomberg, BW LPG analysis

Mont Belvieu propane has strengthened considerably relative to

crude oil & Asian propane

Mont Belvieu Propane as % of WTI

Relative Performance MB C3 vs AFE (Jan 1 2016 = 100)

-

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

US Propane

Asia Propane

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STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

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International Price Spreads The main driver of VLGC spot market weakness; geographic LPG price spreads are the main VLGC freight price-setting

mechanism in the short term

Asia - US Propane Spread ($ Per Ton) Europe - US Propane Spread ($ Per Ton)

($100)

-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Spread (RHS) Asia Propane (LHS) US Propane (LHS)

Europe - US Propane Spread ($ Per Ton) Europe Naphtha Propane Spread ($ Per Ton)

($100)

-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Spread (RHS) EU Propane (LHS) US Propane (LHS)

MEG - US Propane Spread ($ Per Ton)

($100)

-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Spread (RHS) MEG Propane (LHS) US Propane (LHS)

Europe Naphtha Propane Spread ($ Per Ton) Asia Naphtha Propane Spread ($ Per Ton)

($100)

($50)

-

$50

$100

$150

$200

-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Spread (RHS) EU Naphtha (LHS) EU Propane (LHS)

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STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL VLGC Fleet Development; 221 ships on the water, 59 on order

10 Source: Clarksons, BW LPG analysis [1] As of May 2016

VLGC Fleet Profile [1] - Average Age: 9.3 Years BW LPG Market Share (Owned + Operated VLGCs)

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

19

80>

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Nu

mb

er

of V

LGC

s

BW LPG Owned & Operated Other VLGC Fleet Other VLGC Newbuildings

>20 Years: 38 Vessels / 17% of Fleet

VLGC 2016 Deliveries

6

2

11

4 4

2

5

8

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan-2016 Feb-2016 Mar-2016 Apr-2016 May-2016 Jun-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016

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STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

VLGC Fleet Growth & Rates

11 Source: Clarksons, BW LPG analysis

Annual VLGC Fleet Growth vs. VLGC TCE Rates

Fleet Growth Average Median Low High

Since 2009 7% 4% 0% 22%

Last Five Years 8% 5% 0% 22%

Last Ten Years 8% 5% 0% 22%

All Available Time 5% 4% (2%) 22%

-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

(5%)

-

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Fleet Growth

Fleet Growth Forecast

TCE Rates

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STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

12 Source: Waterborne, Poten, BW LPG analysis

Q1 2016 Seaborne LPG Trade Overview US exports grew ~50% year on year while Chinese LPG imports increased by ~65%

Comments

Exports

Middle Eastern exports moderately higher

US LPG export growth driven by increase in volumes

from Enterprise and Sunoco; ~45% of total exports

bound for Far East

N. Europe volumes increased slightly due to positive

arbitrage economics to Asia

African volumes remained steady

Imports

Chinese LPG import growth led by term volumes

Indian imports increased but offset by Haldia import

terminal downtime

Japanese imports decline slightly, but US now

accounts for greater share of import slate (~40%)

Korean imports up due to start up of SK Gas PDH plant

Q1 2015/16 Seaborne LPG Exports by Country/Region (Mt)

Q1 2015/16 Seaborne LPG Imports by Country/Region (Mt)

China

Japan

India

Korea

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

Middle East U.S.A. North Europe North Africa West Africa

Q1 2015 Q1 2016

-

1

2

3

4

5

China Japan India Korea Indonesia

Q1 2015 Q1 2016

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STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

U.S. Ton-Mile Demand

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[1] U.S. export volumes reached 6.5mt in Q1 2016, a 49% year on year increase (Annualized FY2016 26mt v FY2015 20.5mt)

Monthly U.S. LPG Exports By Product Type (MM Tons)

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Propane Butane

[2] Share of U.S. exports headed East continues to grow (Annualized FY2016 45% v FY2015 38%) at expense of shorter distance destinations

US LPG Exports By Destination (2016 Annualized Data)

3% 8% 17% 23%

38% 45%

16% 14%

18% 20%

16% 13%

39% 43%

42% 29% 24% 19%

43% 35%

22% 27% 22% 23%

-

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Asia Europe Latam & Caribs Other

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STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

U.S. Propane Snapshot – Weekly Figures

14 Source: EIA, BW LPG analysis

Weekly U.S. Propane Production (Thousand Barrels per Day)

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Weekly U.S. Propane Demand (Thousand Barrels per Day)

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Weekly U.S. Propane Exports (Thousand Barrels per Day)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trailing Five Year Weekly PADD 3 Propane Inventories (MBBls)

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

5Y High / Low 5Y Avg. 2016

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STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

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U.S. LPG Supply – Demand Outlook Production & exports keep increasing as domestic consumption declines

EIA 2016 – 2017e U.S. LPG production growth of 3% and 4%

EIA 2016 – 2017e U.S. LPG domestic demand decline of 0% and -4%

EIA 2016 – 2017e U.S. LPG net export growth of 30% and 20%

U.S. LPG Snapshot (Mt) - EIA June 2016 STEO

50.3 54.4

59.9

68.5 73.7 75.9

78.9

49.4 51.2 56.0 53.7 53.3 53.2 51.2

0.4 1.8

5.8 11.7 18.5

24.0 28.9

0.4

1.4

3.2

2.0

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2011Actual 2012Actual 2013Actual 2014Actual 2015Actual 2016Forecast 2017Forecast

US Production US Domestic Consumption Net Exports Δ in Inventories

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STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

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Summary

VLGC rates have declined due to narrower LPG price spreads and high fleet growth

Fleet growth set to revert to median levels in coming years

Fundamental drivers of LPG tonne-mile demand are intact

Volumes and distances travelled are both growing

U.S. LPG production will keep growing while domestic consumption could decline

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