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Transcript of IFPA - Fletcher Conference “Strengthening and Building on NATO “ E.C. Whiteside Head WMD Centre...
IFPA - Fletcher Conference“Strengthening and Building on NATO “
E.C. WhitesideHead WMD Centre
NATO HQ
SIGNIFICANT TERRORIST INCIDENTS(1961-2003)
•1961-1983 (20 Years) : 23•1983-1993 (10 Years) : 41•1993-2003 (10 Years) : 183
Resource: Office Of The Historian Bureau of Public Affairs U.S. Department of State
SUICIDE BOMBINGS HAVE OCCURRED IN MORE THAN 20 COUNTRIES
• AFGHANISTAN• ARGENTINA• CHINA• COLOMBIA• CROATIA• INDIA• INDONESIA• IRAQ• ISRAEL• KENYA• KUWAIT• LEBANON• MOROCCO
• PAKISTAN• PANAMA• PHILIPPINES• RUSSIA• SAUDI ARABIA• SPAIN• SRI LANKA• TANZANIA• TUNISIA• TURKEY• UNITED STATES • UZBEKISTAN• YEMEN
INCIDENCES OF SUICIDE ATTACK WORLDWIDE
COUNTRY
2000 2001 2002 2003
AFGHANISTAN 1 2 3 15
CHECHNYA/RUSSIA 8 1 1 10 20 382
CHINA 2 2 5
INDONESIA 1 1 2 215
IRAQ 33 33 244
KASHMIR 17 29 18 11 75 409
KENYA 1 1 18
MOROCCO 5 5 44
PAKISTAN 2 2 4 84
PALESTINE/ISRAEL 3 40 64 22 129 555
PHILIPPINES 1 1 2 24
SAUDI ARABIA 1 5 6 57
SRI LANKA 14 4 1 19 205
TUNISIA 1 1 16
TURKEY 1 5 6 64
USA 4 4 3002
YEMEN 1 1 19
TOTAL 43 81 91 98 313 5358
SUICIDE ATTACKS PER YEARATTACKS DEATHS
A suicide bombing is a bomb attack on people or property, committed by a person who knows the explosion will cause his or her own death
The Most Destructive Suicide Bombing in History
IMAGINE THE TERRIBLE OUTCOME, IF IT WERE A WMD ATTACK!
NATO’s RESPONSE TO THIS CHALLENGE
Operation Active Endeavour
Istanbul Summit in 2004: NATO agrees to assist Iraq with the training of its security forces
Visit to NATO on 14 September 2004, Interim Iraqi president Sheikh Ghazi Al-Yawar welcomed the Alliance’s assistance to Iraq and called for further assistance urgently
ENHANCEMENT OF NATO ASSISTANCE TO IRAQ
•The NATO effort will focus on training, and assisting with equipping, and technical assistance
•A distinct mission, but it will work closely with the Multinational Force
•The aims of this mission are training, equipping and technical assistance – not combat
NATO’s training task in NATO’s training task in IRAQIRAQ
• NATO team continues toNATO team continues to::• Train and mentor Iraqi personnelTrain and mentor Iraqi personnel• Meet all levels of Iraqi MoD and Coalition Meet all levels of Iraqi MoD and Coalition
ForcesForces• Further NATO decisions expected soonFurther NATO decisions expected soon
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ASSISTANCE FORCE
(ISAF)
NATO August 11 2003
Multinational Flags at ISAF HQ in Kabul.
More than 8000 Soldiers, sailors and airmen
From 36 Nations
UNSCR 1510, Oct.13.2003 ; ISAF Support Beyond Kabul
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ASSISTANCE FORCE
(ISAF)
PROVINCIAL RECONSTRUCTION TEAMS(PRT)
• BAGHLAN• FEYZABAD• KONDUZ• MAZAR E-SHARIF• MEYMANA• BAMIYAN
NATO
New Zealand
U.S.• ASADABAD• HERAT• GARDEZ• FARAH• KANDAHAR• QALAT• KHOST• JALALABAD• PARWAN (U.S.+S.Korea)• GHAZNI
PROVINCIAL RECONSTRUCTION TEAMS ( PRT )
HERT
NIMRUZ
HELMAND
ORUZGAN
GHOWR
BADGHIS
FARYAB
SAR-E POL SAMANGAN
JOWZJAN
BALKH
TAKHAR
BAGHLAN
BADAKHSHAN
KONAR
LAGHMAN
PARVAN
KEPIGA
Garmabak
KeleftJeyretan
Sar-e PolSamangan
Pol-e Khomri
Taloqan
Eshkashem
Charikar
Delaram
Shindand
Zaranj
BAGHLAN
Spin Boldak
Baghran
Balkh
Bagram
JacobabadShamsi
Karshi Khanabad
Baraki
PAKTIKAZABOL
VARDAKLOWGAR
Shir Khan
Shkin
Orgun-eDeh Rawod
Geresk
Kabul
BamyanParwan
Chaghcharan
Qal eh-ye Now
Geresk
FARAHFARAH
LASHKAR GAHLASHKAR GAH
QALAT QALAT
GHAZNIGHAZNI
HERATHERAT
GARDEZGARDEZ
KANDAHARKANDAHAR
JALALABAD JALALABAD
ASADABADASADABAD
KHOWSTKHOWST
Current PRTs
Future PRTs
BAMIANBAMIAN
TARIN KOWTTARIN KOWT
SHARANASHARANA
PARWANPARWAN
MAZAR-ESHARIFMAZAR-ESHARIF
MAiMANAMAiMANA POLE KHUMRIPOLE KHUMRI
FEYZABADFEYZABAD
Coalition PRTs
NATO PRTs
KUNDUZKUNDUZ
Ballot boxes arrive in Kabul
• SP: 1x Battalion to Mazar-e SharifSP: 1x Battalion to Mazar-e Sharif
• IT : 1 x Battalion to KabulIT : 1 x Battalion to Kabul
• US: 1 x Company to Kabul (QRF)US: 1 x Company to Kabul (QRF)
• NL: deployed 6 x F-16sNL: deployed 6 x F-16s
• UK: Offered Harrier A/CUK: Offered Harrier A/C
• AWACS also on standbyAWACS also on standby
AFGHANISTAN
SUPPORT TO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONSUPPORT TO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
9000 Personnel
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
09 October 2004
NATO’s RESPONSE TO PROLIFERATION
CBRN DEFENCE INITIATIVES
Investigate and collect samples of possible NBC contamination
Conduct highly reliable scientific
analysis of samples
Quickly and easily transportable into theater
Deployable NBC Analytical Laboratory
NBC Joint Assessment Team
Assess the effects of an NBC event
Advise NATO Commanders on mitigating effects of an
NBC event
Enable NATO Commanders to “reach back” to national experts for technical advice
NATO Chem-Bio Defence Stockpile
Rapidly move needed defense materiel into theater
Identify and share national stockpiles
Improve medical treatment protocols
Disease Surveillance System
Alert NATO commanders of a biological outbreak
Fuse data with other information sources
Collect info on unusual disease outbreaks
Virtual Center of Excellence for NBC Weapons Defence
Enhance Senior-level NBC education
Improve operational understanding of NBC defense
Expand and strengthen NBC defense training
CBRN DEFENCE BATTALION
THE BALLISTIC MISSILE CHALLENGE
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0 1,300 0 3,500 5,500-10,000
0
0
Alt
itu
de (
km)
Medium RangeBallistic Missile
(MRBM)
Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile(IRBM)
ICBM
Range (km)0 600
Short RangeBallistic Missile
(SRBM)
Boost
Midcourse
Terminal
* Re-entry Velocity
1-2 km/sec* 3-4 km/sec* 4-5 km/sec*
7-8 km/sec*
Terrorism + WMD together ??
• Based on a combination of trends in both capabilities and motivations, as well as empirical evidence of actual interest, the risks are real
• Low probability - high consequence• NATO has a role in supporting the global
dimension of “homeland security”