Enhancing Resilience to Conflict in Arab Countries through Research and Arab Spatial 2.0

Joint IFAD-IFPRI-PIM WorkshopIFAD Headquarter, Rome; 16 January 2014

Welcoming Remarks

Kevin Cleaver

IFAD

Associate Vice President

Overview: Enhancing Resilience to Conflict in Arab Countries

Clemens Breisinger

IFPRI

MENA Team Leader

IFAD's unique mandate is improving rural food security and nutrition, and enabling rural women and men to overcome poverty.

IFPRI's mission is to provide research-based policy solutions that sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition

IFAD-NENA and IFPRI-MENA:Working Together for Impact

OVERVIEW

IFAD-NENA and IFPRI-MENA:Examples of Recent Collaboration

Trade liberalization in MENA may benefit poor farmers (only) if: effective extension and market

information systems are in place costs related to infrastructure and

bureaucracy are reduced A food secure Arab world requires: economic growth that better

benefits the food insecure and poor public spending that is more

efficient and better targeted data and information that supports

evidence-based policy making

OVERVIEW

Motivation and Objectives of OngoingResilience to Conflict Project

Conflict and development research has neglected rural development, food security and the Arab world (incl. in the WDR 2011).

To address this gap, IFAD issued a call for proposals and contracted IFPRI in 2012. CGIAR-PIM is co-financing.

Project objectives are identifying: The linkages between conflict, rural development, and food security in

Arab countries Which policies and interventions may enhance resilience to conflicts How better information can lead to better lives

Project includes policy communication products and tools, capacity building, and research.

OVERVIEW

Project Outputs So Far 5 policy seminars and conference sessions in

Egypt, Rome, Yemen and Washington, DC Online information tool Arab Spatial 1.0 launched

in February 2013 3 multi-day trainings workshops at CAPMAS in

Egypt (2) and MOPIC (Economic Forecasting Unit) in Yemen (1)

46 presentations at international conferences/workshops (33) and at development partners’ offices and universities (13)

17 papers and articles, incl. 5 journal papers, 3 book chapters, 5 IFPRI Discussion Papers, 1 IFPRI Policy Note, and 3 IFPRI magazines

OVERVIEW

Selected Project Impacts So Far:

1. Public opinion: Research findings have been cited by the int’l and Arab media, including the Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, and Financial Times

2. Egypt: Our joint work with CAPMAS and WFP has contributed to a new open-data initiative, a revision of the HIECS survey, and improved analytical capacity

3. Yemen: Analysis is key part of the Joint Social and Economic Assessment (by the World Bank, UN, EU, and IsDB), basis for donors’ US$ 8bn pledge (Riyadh, Sept. 5, 2012) to support post-conflict transition

OVERVIEW

Food insecurity is a major cause of conflict —in Arab countries, more than in the rest of the world.

Thus, policies, programs, and projects that improve food security are likely to also reduce conflict.

Improving policies and interventions will require more and better data and information.

Preview - Three Key Messages:

OVERVIEW

Structure of Workshop Presentations1. Arab Regional-level Study

What are the causes of conflict in Arab countries?What are key policies for enhancing resilience to conflict?

3. Arab SpatialPolicy information tool and open data repository:

exploring issues and finding cross-country patternsPolicy and planning tool: displaying patterns based on research

2. Country Case StudiesSudan: Climate Change, Natural Resources, and Local Conflicts

Somalia: Drought, Livestock Price Shocks, and Civil WarYemen: Building Resilience through Policy and Programs

Egypt: Food Security Policies in Times of Transitions

OVERVIEW

Arab Exceptionalism: The Role of Food Security

Presented by Olivier Ecker (IFPRI)

Based on:

Does Food Security Matter for Transition in Arab Countries?

Jean-Francois Maystadt, Jean-Francois Trinh Tan, Clemens Breisinger

(Forthcoming in Food Policy, IFPRI Discussion Paper 1196)

DefinitionsConflict: “Organized violence [is] the use or threat of physical force by groups. [It] includes state actions against other states or against civilians, civil wars, electoral violence between opposing sides, communal conflicts based on regional, ethnic, religious or other group identities or competing economic interests, gang-based violence and organized crime and international nonstate armed movements with ideological aims” (World Bank 2011).

“Building resilience means helping people, communities, countries, and global institutions prevent, anticipate, prepare for, cope with, and recover from shocks and not only bounce back to where they were before the shocks occurred, but become even better‐off” (IFPRI 2020 policy consultation).

Food security is a situation “when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO 1996).

“Poverty is pronounced deprivation in well-being […]. It includes low incomes and the inability to acquire the basic goods and services necessary for survival with dignity” (World Bank 2012, adapted from Haughton and Khandker 2009).

EVIDENCE FROM RESEARCH

Causes and Drivers of Conflict

1. Motivation: grievances, discrimination inequality, injustice

2. Opportunity: conflict as means of (economic) benefit opportunity costs of conflict participation relative to income from ordinary activities

3. Polity: capacity of the state to promote inclusion or to repress contestation/ uprisings

EVIDENCE FROM RESEARCH

Motivation and Background The global food and financial crisis in 2008-09 hit Arab

countries particularly hard, increasing food insecurity substantially.

Food insecurity has been identified as one of the causes of violent conflicts worldwide (Brinkman & Hendrix 2011; Pinstrup-Andersen & Shimokawa 2008).

Rising food insecurity has possibly contributed to triggering civil unrests leading to the ‘Arab Awakening’ in 2010-11 (Breisinger et al. 2011, 2012).

However, food insecurity also increased in other world regions in recent years, without sparking major uprisings.

Are the effects of food insecurity on conflict exceptionally strong in the Arab World?

If so, what are the implications for the transition process?

ARAB EXCEPTIONALISM

Methodology and Data Logistic FE regression model of the likelihood of intrastate conflict worldwide:

Testing for ‘Arab exceptionalism’ by interacting with dichotomous variable IV-2SLS-FE regression model of intrastate conflict incidence due to changes

in national food prices (P) in the Arab world:

Testing the channel of transmission Food (and nutrition) security indicators at the household and national level

(FI): child stunting rate, child mortality rate, food imports/(total exports [+ remittances])

Controlling for possible, additional causes of conflict (X): GDP growth, population size, duration of peace

Country-level data between 1960 and 2010

ARAB EXCEPTIONALISM

Results Economic growth reduces the risk of conflict worldwide. Countries with long peace periods in the past are less

prone to civil conflict. There is an Arab exceptionalism in the relevance of food

security as cause of conflict. High food prices increase the risk of conflict through

deteriorating food security (which, in turn, reduces people’s resistance to engage in conflict).

Food security at both the national and the household level is significantly more important for conflict prevention in Arab countries than in the rest of the world.

ARAB EXCEPTIONALISM

Conclusions In addition to economic growth, improving food security

is not only important for enhancing the poor’s living conditions, it is also critical for building resilience to conflict—in Arab countries, more than in the rest of the world.

The high vulnerability of Arab countries to global food price variations may explain the exceptionally strong link between food insecurity and the risk of conflict.

Since countries in political transition are at increased risk of sliding into conflict, improving food security is particularly important for supporting peaceful transitions.

ARAB EXCEPTIONALISM

Policy and Program Implications (1)Policies and development programs/projects which

improve food security are likely to significantly reduce the risk of conflict in Arab countries (as a positive externality).

Effective short-run policies to protect people against excessive food price volatility include public grain reserves, social safety nets, and emergency assistance.

ARAB EXCEPTIONALISM

Effective long-run policies should focus on economic growth that generates income for the poor and foreign exchange revenues for financing food

imports.Development programs/projects should aim at

farm and off-farm income generation and employment (particularly for young male adults),

infrastructural investments, and health and nutrition interventions.

Policy and Program Implications (2)

Country Case Studies:The Pathways from Research to DevelopmentPresented by:

Olivier Ecker (IFPRI)

Perrihan Al-Riffai (IFPRI)

Sudan: Climate Change, Natural Resources, and Local Conflicts

Based on:

Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan

Jean-Francois Maystadt, Margherita Calderone, Liangzhi You

(Rev. & Res. to PNAS, IFPRI Discussion Paper 1276)

Motivation and Background Climate change causes warmer (and more extreme)

weather that increases civil conflict globally (Hsiang et al. 2013).

Is the relationship of warming and conflict also valid at the local level and over a short time period?

If so, what are the potential factors that drive this relationship in Sudan?

Sudan has experienced civil war/instability over the last two decades, where competition over natural resources—including agricultural resources—has triggered violent conflicts frequently.

SUDAN

Conflict and Extreme Weather

Source: Own presentation based on ACLED and UEA-CRU data.

SUDAN

Methodology and Data LS-FE regression model of local violent conflict incidence due

to temperature anomaly:

Estimating the effect of local warming Controlling for population density and economic activities by

using night-light density () Testing of potential exacerbating/mitigating factors (livestock

density, coexistence of pastoralists and agropastoralists, staple crop production, oil fields, water access, vegetation, soil quality) through interacting with temperature anomaly

Grid cell-level data from 1997 to 2009

SUDAN

Results Warmer weather increases the risk of local conflict in

Sudan substantially. The risk of conflict will increase by an estimated 20-30

percent until 2030, depending on the climate change scenario assumed.

(Agro)pastoralist areas are particularly vulnerable. The effects are amplified in areas with high livestock

density and where pastoralists and agropastoralists reside and compete over the same resources.

Competition over water seems to be one of the main drivers of conflict.

SUDAN

Policy and Program ImplicationsResilience building strategies and interventions

need to be developed specifically for (agro)pastoral livelihoods, given the unique challenges associated with the (semi)nomadic lifestyle.

Critical components include investments in water supply (and irrigation)

infrastructure, measures to improve water (and pasture)

resource management, and early warning systems for herders.

SUDAN

Somalia: Drought, Livestock Price Shocks, and Civil War

Based on:

Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?

Jean-Francois Maystadt, Olivier Ecker

(Forthcoming in AJAE, IFPRI Discussion Paper 1243)

Motivation and Background The number and length of warm weather spells in the Horn of Africa

have increased in recent years, causing more and more intense droughts.

Somalia experienced its most destructive drought in 2011, with 4m people in need of emergency assistance at its peak.

Somalia has also been shaken by an ongoing civil war since 1991, where violent disputes have become more frequent recently.

Is there a causal relationship between drought and civil war in Somalia?

If so, what makes people to engage in violent conflict that is influenced by the weather?

Given the importance of the livestock sector as source of income, drought-caused livestock price shocks may be the factor of transmission.

SOMALIA

Frequency of Conflict and Drought

63 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9121997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0

20

40

60

80

100Number of violent conflict events

63 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9121997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Drought intensity Drought length

Temperature anomaly Number of consecutive drought months

Correlation of drought incidence withdrought intensity: 0.14drought length: 0.19

Source: Own presentation based ACLED and UEA-CRU data.

SOMALIA

Methodology and Data LS-FE regression model for estimating the effects of drought intensity () and

length () on violent conflict incidence (controlling for precipitation effects, ):

IV-2SLS-FE regression model for testing the livestock market channel

(transmitting drought into livestock price shocks, ):

Comprehensive robustness checks and validity tests Simulation of conflict impact due to climate change (based on IPCC

temperature projections) Administrative region-level data from 1997 to 2009

SOMALIA

Results More intense and longer-lasting droughts lead to

more violent conflicts in Somalia. Drought depresses local livestock prices that

reduces household incomes and therewith

Reduced-form regression: Conflict

Two-stage regression, first: Cattle price

Two-stage regression, second: Conflict

Source: Own presentation based on own estimates.

SOMALIA

enhances the risk of conflict.

Climate change may increase the likelihood of conflict by 50-56%.

Conclusions Drought fuels conflict in Somalia through livestock

price shocks. Policies and investments for drought impact mitigation

and resilience building are critical for both climate change adaptation and conflict prevention.

The costs of inaction go beyond the immediate economic and environmental costs of climate change and may involve substantial costs from conflict intensification.

Economic well-being is a key determinant of individual conflict participation, so that poverty alleviation is an effective strategy for conflict mitigation.

SOMALIA

Policy and Program Implications (1)

Strategies for building resilience to conflict in Somalia should aim at increasing the opportunity costs of conflict participation through: fostering sustainable growth in the livestock

sector, providing alternative income earning

opportunities, and establishing social safety nets.

SOMALIA

Policy and Program Implications (2)

Formal insurance mechanisms and credit systems as well as investments in livestock marketing and infrastructure can help to smooth herd destocking and to realize fast restocking.

Financial and technical support is needed to adapt herds toward more drought-resilient and

more fast-marketable animals and prevent overuse of rangeland resources.

SOMALIA

Yemen: Building Resilience through Policy and Programs(Work in Progress)

Based on:

The Growth-Nutrition (Dis-)Connect in Yemen: A New Macro-Micro Modeling Approach

Clemens Breisinger, Olivier Ecker

(Under Revision for Economic Modelling)

Breaking the Vicious Cycle of Conflict and Food Insecurity and Yemen

Olivier Ecker

(In progress)

Motivation and Background Yemen has experienced increasing conflict and food

insecurity, particularly in the course of the ‘Arab Awakening’. Starting with the formation of the unity government in early

2012, there is new hope for political and economic transformation leading to stability and rising living standards.

To tackle food insecurity, Yemen has a comprehensive strategy—the National Food Security Strategy (NFSS)—since 2010 that calls for implementation.

What is the association of political instability and food insecurity, and what are the outcomes for people’s nutrition?

Assuming that the key economic policies proposed in the NFSS were implemented, what is the likely impact on food security?

What is the role of IFAD development programs?

YEMEN

Methodology and Data Combination of various economic analysis tools and estimation

models including: Correlation and descriptive analyses LS regression models with various specifications Dynamic CGE model

Set of recent household surveys including: Gallup Poll UNICEF Pilot Social Protection Monitoring Survey (PSPMS)

2011/12 Household Budget Survey (HBS) 2005-06 Results and Impact Management System (RIMS) surveys of

IFAD’s Dhamar Participatory Rural Development Project (DPRDP)

YEMEN

Correlation of Conflict Exposure and Food Insecurity

26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 2 60

10

20

30

40

50

60Conflict exposure Food insecurity

ρ = 0.65

Households (%)

Calendar week 2011-12

Source: Own estimation based on UNICEF PSPM survey data.Note: The presented indicators are based on the following questions and answers:Conflict exposure: “During the past two weeks has any child become afraid of playing outside?” – “Yes.”Food insecurity: “During the past two weeks have you or any family member experienced going to bed hungry due to lack of food?” – “Yes.”

YEMEN

Results The recession in 2011 affected

economic growth and food security lastingly.

Even if the economy comes back to pre-crisis growth rates, it takes at least five years to make up the loss in output.

Reversing the trend of increasing food insecurity is challenging—even more so for chronic malnutrition.

2010 2015 2020

-10

-5

0

5

10

Slow transitionAccelerated transitionStagnation

Non-hydrocarbon growth (%)

2010

2015

2020

25

30

35

40

Slow transitionAccelerated transi-tionStagnation

Prevalence of calorie deficiency (%)

Growth semi-elasticitiesCalorie

deficiencyChild

stunting

Slow transition -0.078 -0.011

Accelerated transition -0.175 -0.032

Stagnation 0.040 0.011

Source: Own estimations based on HBS 2005-06 data and national statistics.

YEMEN

Preliminary Results IFAD’s DPRDP aimed at improving food security and family incomes of

small farm households in addition to upgrading community infrastructure. Against the national trend, child malnutrition improved in the project site. In 2012, most beneficiary households (90%) consider their community

Sample Survey (period) Wasting UnderweightRural Yemen2005 HBS (4/2005 - 3/2006) 13.4 38.42012 NSPMS, R1 (10-12/2012) 17.5 44.4Average annual changePercentage points 0.6 0.9Percent 3.9 2.1

Dhamar Participatory Rural Development Project (DPRDP)2006 RIMS (11/2006) 20.3 53.62012 RIMS (11/2012) 11.7 41.1Average annual changePercentage points -1.4 -2.1Percent -8.7 -4.3

and the surrounding communities as peaceful.

However, further analyses and more data are needed for assessing the project impact more precisely.

Source: Own estimations based on listed surveys and IPC-IG et al. (2013).

YEMEN

Preliminary Conclusions Political instability and food insecurity are closely associated

in Yemen. Major policy reforms—including the implementation of the

National Food Security Strategy—are necessary to bring Yemen back to pre-crisis achievements and further on a development path.

Development programs/projects that aim at building resilience through improving food security and rural development more broadly (such as by IFAD) have high potential to also contribute to prevent civil conflict in Yemen.

More work (and new data) are needed (and forthcoming) to evaluate the contribution of IFAD’s programs/projects to conflict prevention.

YEMEN

Egypt: Food Security Policies in Times of Transition

Based on:

Tackling Egypt’s Rising Food Insecurity in a Time of Transition

Clemens Breisinger, Riham Abuismail, Noura Abdelwahab, Perrihan Al-Riffai, Dina Armanious, Olivier Ecker, Heba El-Laithy, Jane Waite, Alaa Zohery

(Joint IFPRI-WFP-CAPMAS Country Policy Note)

Motivation and Background (1)Food subsidies are one of the most important policies for social protection.

Because: Subsidized food accounts

for nearly 20% of poor households’ food expenditure

Subsidized baladi bread accounts for 71% of bread consumed by poor households.

EGYPT

Without food subsidies, national poverty may have increased from 25% to about 34%.

Motivation and Background (2)

Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. http://www.ifpri.org/gfpr/2012/regional-developments

The fiscal deficit in Egypt is above 10 percent of GDP and rising

Food insecurity has reached new heights after a succession of crises

since 2007

EGYPT

Motivation and Background (3) New (preliminary) results show that food subsidies contribute to the “double burden” of malnutritionThe double burden of malnutrition is mostly prevalent in Egypt and Iraq

Source: Ecker, et al. WFP/CAPMAS/IFPRI Workshop “Tackling Food Security and Nutrition in Egypt: Challenges and Opportunities”, Cairo, 21 May 2013

EGYPT

Results:There is significant potential for improving the current food subsidy system

Losses and leakages across the baladi bread supply chain are estimated at 30 percent

There is significant scope for improving the targeting: The ration card system covers 73 percent of

nonpoor households But it excludes 19 percent of the most

vulnerable households!Increased poverty has resulted in an over reliance

on cheap and calorie-dense foods, including subsidized commodities

EGYPT

Policy Implications Following business as usual is not an option: Improved targeting

and complementary programs could reduce costs and improve food security

Lessons from other countries’ experiences and Egypt’s previous subsidy reform attempts stress the importance of: Restructuring and integrating the subsidy system within a

broader national strategy of development and food security for success

Building credibility by promoting transparency of policies and engaging in discussion with the people

Creating an understanding Managing expectations Establishing a robust monitoring and evaluation system for

decision making, empowering policymakers to learn and become versatile during any reform process.

EGYPT

Discussion and Feedback

Launch of Arab Spatial 2.0

Presented by:

Perrihan Al-Riffai (IFPRI)

Daniel Duarte (SpatialDev)

Jean-Francois Trinh Tan (IFPRI)

Overview: Arab Spatial Development and Food Security Atlas 2.0

Policy information tool and open data repository on food security and development-related research in the Arab world

Over 200 indicators national, subnational, and pixel level over time.

New Features A gallery of downloadable and pre-made graphs about Arab

nations’ development and food security Customized analytical tools that allow users to compare and

explore data by indicators, regions, year, and download the results New multi-layer maps that dynamically track IFAD development

projects geographically in the context of more than 200 food security and development indicators; and

Enhanced user experience, with simpler navigation and greater interactivity.

What is Arab Spatial?

ARAB SPATIAL

Arab Spatial Conceptual Framework

ARAB SPATIAL

Source: www.arabspatial.org

Arab Spatial 2.0: Innovative Mapping Meets Food Policy Analysis

Overview

Working with IFPRI

Arab Spatial “technology stack”

What is a Spatial?

Spatials as a platform

Working with IFPRI

Five Year Ongoing Partnership

Work with IFPRI on a number of programs including:

Arab SpatialHarvestChoiceAgWater ManagementCrop LifeCRP Mapper

Members of the CGIAR-CSI

Arab Spatial“Technology Stack”

Stack Components

Server stack

Microsoft Windows

SQL Server 2012 R2

ESRI ArcGIS Server 10.1

Code base on GitHub

Client stack

ESRI JavaScript API

D3 and jQuery

HTML5 and CSS3

What is a Spatial?

What Makes a Spatial? (technically speaking)

Geography + Information = Spatial

Arab Spatial

Spatials are Created from a Template

62

+

The “Hotel” Metaphor

63

“Hotel Room”

64

“Hotel Check-in”

65

“Checking In” – Data Loading

66

Data entry

Uniform Treatment of Data or “Hotel Guests”

Workflow

Spatials as a Platform

69

The Spatial Platform

Reusability (code)

Scalability (Spatials)

Usability (user-friendly)

Extensibility (platform)

70

The Application

Identify Areas Vulnerable to Food Insecurity

Child malnutrition rates are particularly high in Yemen and Somalia.

Link to map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Stunting, Country|2012&bm=World light gray (Note: Select the “Latest” function on the timeline)

Investment in Infrastructure and Access to Cities

Display physical infrastructure that enables populations to have access to local and international food markets such as ports, airports, railroads, grain storage facilities.

Link to left map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Railroads&ll=Grain storages&ll=Ports&ll=Airports&bm=World light gray

Display access to small cities (travel time expressed in hours).Link to right map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Access to small cities&bm=World imagery

Closing Yield Gaps

Display the spatial distribution of wheat yields at the pixel level (expressed in kg/hectares), and visualize in detail which areas have the highest and lowest wheat yields across the region.

Link to map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Yield - wheat&bm=World light gray

Food security and income per capita

Using the GNI per capita layer, we can compare income per capita between Arab countries.

Link to map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=GNI per capita|2012&bm=World light gray (Note: Select the “Latest” function on the timeline)

Visualize indicators in a chart

The “Analytics” functions allows users to visualize the selected indicators in a bar, line or scatter chart.

Link to chart: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=GNI per capita|2012&bm=World light gray (Note: Select the “Analytics” function at the bottom of the screen)

Compare Multiple Indicators

Users can visually analyze how long term changes in precipitation relate to spatial patterns of conflict in Sudan and Somalia. Link to maps: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Violent conflicts, 1997 - 2010&ll=Precipitation variability&bm=World light gray

Visualize Data at the Sub-National Level

Arab Spatial allows users to analyze the spatial distribution of child malnutrition at the sub-national level, and target more specifically which areas of the country are most vulnerable, and expose disparities between governorates.

Link to map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Stunting, Governorate|2012&bm=World light gray (Note: Select the “Latest” function on the timeline)

Zoom-in to Specific Points of Interest

The zoom-in function and World Imagery base layer to visualize areas and points of interest in fine detail.

Link to map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Grain storages&bm=World imagery

A Valuable Tool for Targeting

Visualize whether interventions are situated in areas which are most vulnerable to food insecurity.

Link to left map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Ongoing IFAD development projects&ll=Stunting, Governorate|2012&bm=World light gray (Note: Select the “Latest” function on the timeline)Link to right map: http://www.arabspatial.org/?ll=Ongoing IFAD development projects&ll=Yield - sorghum&bm=World imagery

Discussion and Feedback

Related Publications

Research Products: Beyond the Arab awakening: Policies and Investments for Poverty

Reduction and Food Security, IFPRI Food Policy Report. English | Arabic Does Food Security Matter for Transition in Arab Countries? IFPRI

Discussion Paper 1196 Download The Food Security System: A New Conceptual Framework. IFPRI

Discussion Paper 1166 Download Food Security and Economic Development in the Middle East and North

Africa: Current State and Future Perspectives. IFPRI Discussion Paper 0985 Download

Policy Choices on the Ground. IFPRI 2012 Global Food Policy Report Download

Regional Developments: Food policy taking shape at the local level. IFPRI 2011 Global Food Policy Report Download

Knowledge Products: Arab Spatial Development and Food Security Atlas: www.arabspatial.org

Arab World

PUBLICATIONS

Research Products: Managing Transition in Yemen: An Assessment of the Costs of Conflict

and Development Scenarios for the Future. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1210 English | Arabic  

Macroeconomic and Social Impact Analysis of the 2011 Crisis in Yemen and Alternative Transition Scenarios in Joint Social and Economic Impact Assessment for the Republic of Yemen. Led by World Bank Download

Climate Change and Floods in Yemen: Impacts on Food Security and Options for Adaptation. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1139 Download

Food as the Basis for Development and Security: A Strategy for Yemen. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1036 English | Press Release

Assessing food security in Yemen: An innovative integrated, cross-sector, and multilevel approach. IFPRI Discussion Paper 0982 Download

Petroleum subsidies in Yemen: Leveraging reform for development. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1071 Download

Yemen

PUBLICATIONS

Policy Notes: Overview And Action Plan: Yemen national food security

strategy English | Arabic Health, nutrition, and risk management: Yemen national food

security strategy  English | Arabic Qat, water, and agricultural development: Yemen national food

security strategy  English | Arabic Petroleum Subsidy Reform and Food Security: Yemen national

food security strategy English | Arabic

Knowledge Products:• Mapping Yemen: Interactive Atlas Provides Unique Insights into

Food Security (Available in CD version more information)

Yemen

Somalia Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1243

Download

Sudan Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan. IFPRI

Discussion Paper 1276 Download

Egypt Tackling Egypt’s Rising Food Insecurity. Joint IFPRI-WFP Country Policy

Note English | Arabic

Syria Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and

options for adaptation. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1091 Download

PUBLICATIONS