Ref: 67485649/225

“All changed, changed utterly” - From

the days of the “wireless” to today's

digital home and beyond”

IET Ireland Network

2011 Chairman‟s Address

Pat Kidney

06 Oct 2011

2

67485649/225

Engineering and Technology

3

67485649/225

IET Vision and Mission

Vision

w To share and advance knowledge throughout the global Science, Engineering and Technology community to enhance people’s lives around the world

Mission

w To build an open, flexible and global knowledge network supported by individuals, companies and institutions and facilitated by the IET and its members

4

67485649/225

Ireland Network Vision

To operate as an autonomous group within Ireland whilst

co-operating with other professional bodies

To serve our members in Ireland by organising an annual

programme of meetings, technical visits and social events.

To help our members remain employable for life

To raise the profile of the engineer in Irish society

To spread engineering knowledge, learning and problem

solving skills

To promote the ideas and intellectual output of Irish people

To facilitate the links between business and academia.

5

67485649/225

„Employment for life‟ has become

„employable for life‟

Networking potential and access to influential people in the wider industry and society

Being part of a high-tech knowledge community

Support knowledge and skills development

Broad scope of membership

w Chartered Eng, Eng Tech, IT Professions, etc.

Professional registration, international recognition / scope

Why the IET?

6

67485649/225

A Professional Home For Life

Late-career/Retired Mid-career Young

Professionals Students

Links to

industry

Specialist technical knowledge

Broad sector

knowledge

Professional Skills Management Skills Mentoring

Community

Volunteering

Careers

guidance

7

67485649/225

Programme of events 2011/2012

Research and

Development

Engineering and

Technology

Power Telecommunications

and Media

Smart

Economy

Other Events

8

67485649/225

Programme of events 2011/2012

Research and

Development

Drug Delivery in medicine

Engineering and

Technology

Control system of the Airbus

A320

Power

What now for the single

electricity market

Telecommunications

and Media

Saorview Smart

Economy

Other Events

Ref: 67485649/225

“All changed, changed utterly” -

From the days of the “wireless” to

today's digital home and beyond Pat Kidney

06 Oct 2011

10

67485649/225

Home technology from a slow start

to the ubiquitous mobile

11

67485649/225

When technology started to

provide home entertainment….

12

67485649/225

…it was a family affair

13

67485649/225

The Television ….first to transmit

pictures

14

67485649/225

Traditional TV watching… linear

Whatever programme

Available at that moment

Available on that channel

One size fits all concept

15

67485649/225

However, the future of content is in

the long tail and choice

Consumer are all individuals

Consumers matched with Content

Opportunity for targeted advertising

Titles

No o

f V

iew

ers “The 80/20 rule does not apply in a

world without the constraints of physical media”

Broadcast

DTT/Cable/Satellite

Uni cast

IPTV

16

67485649/225

Combination of Broadcast and

Broadband IPTV revolutionises the

market

Broadband IPTV complements

DTT & provides innovative new

services:

w Catch up TV

w Video on demand

w User generated content

w Social networking

w Interactive services

17

67485649/225

“Receivers of the future” in 2000 …

• Could be a Set Top Box...

• Could be a TV set...

• Could be a PC with plug-in card...

• Could be a mobile…..

• or a digital device of some kind...

Integrated Receiver-

Decoder (IRD)

?

18

67485649/225

The growing appetite for the

flexible consumption of content…

19

67485649/225

Who is watching what?

online video regularly –

younger and larger HH

Online video has

complemented, rather than

replaced, pay TV

The young are far more

likely to view TV content

via devices, such as

games consoles and

laptops.

The young value the

flexibility

Figure 1: TV and online video consumption by age

group1 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

1 Questions: “Do you frequently use a TV?”; all respondents; n = 6000; “Do

you also take pay-TV?”; all respondents with fixed broadband; n = 4918;

“Have you viewed an online video within the past 3 months?”; all

respondents; n = 6000.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

18–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65+

Perc

enta

ge o

f re

spondents

TV Pay TV Online video

20

67485649/225

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Germany

France

USA

Spain

Poland

UK

Percentage of subscribers

Intend to churn Intend to churn, but tied into contract

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1 2 3 4 5

Overall fixed broadband customer satisfaction

(1 = unsatisfied; 5 = very satisfied)

Pe

rce

nta

ge

 

of

su

bs

crib

ers

 

Europe 2009

Europe 2010

USA 2010

• Service usage is

fragmenting. The ubiquity

of connected devices

enables users to carry

out an increasing number

of digital activities

simultaneously..

• Service providers must

prioritise customer

care.

Resulting in some interesting user

behaviour Figure 1: Percentage of fixed broadband subscribers who

intend to change service provider, by overall fixed

broadband customer satisfaction1 [Source: Analysys

Mason, 2010]

Figure 2: Percentage of mobile broadband subscribers

who intend to change service provider, by country1

[Source: Analysys Mason, 2010]

1 Question: “Do you intend to change your Internet service provider in the

next six months?”. Figure 1: respondents with a fixed broadband

connection, decision makers; n = 4117. Figure 2: respondents with a

mobile broadband connection; n = 1388.

21

67485649/225

The audio-visual sector is undergoing

three, significant high-level changes

22

67485649/225

Digital distribution is resulting in more

channels, services and indirectly content

Number of HD channels in Europe

Source: SES 2009, Analysys Mason 2010

52

101

176

228

276

319344

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Num

ber

of

HD

channels

Global 3D TV shipment forecasts

0.2 1.5 3.59.5

16

25

36.5

46

53.5

64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

3D

TV

Ship

ments

(m

illions)

Source: DisplaySearch

23

67485649/225

Video to PC and to TV will be the

main driver of IP traffic growth Global Consumer Internet Traffic Forecast

Source: Cisco Global Consumer Internet Traffic, 2009-2014

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Tra

ffic

(P

B p

er

mo

nth

)

File Sharing Internet Video Internet Video to TVWeb/Data Video Calling Online GamingVoIP

Notable growth in

traffic to connected-

TVs is expected in

the next few years

However,

highest traffic

demand still

expected to

come from

video to PC

services

24

67485649/225

New interfaces on TVs makes

consumption of interactive content easy

Canvas

Source: BBC

Sony Bravia TV Source: Sony

Yahoo! Connected TV

Source: Yahoo!

OpenTV

Source: CNN

25

67485649/225

Draft Project Canvas service structure Project Canvas indicative screenshots:

Source: BBC

Connected TV offers opportunities to

producers to create new types of content

26

67485649/225

The digital home is a reality…the

building blocks are in place

ubiquitous high-speed

connectivity through:

w high penetration rate for

fixed broadband

w maturity of home

networking technology

w widespread deployment

of 3G and 3.5G cellular

networks.

growing number of

connected devices

Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/lorenjavier/ CC BY-

ND 2.0

27

67485649/225

The digital home …more blocks

w digital delivery of content

w move towards open

standards

w consumer desire for

flexibility in the way they

access and consume their

content

w green agenda

w deployment of smart

infrastructure by utilities.

28

67485649/225

fixed broadband is reaching

stagnation in developed markets Figure 1: Fixed and mobile broadband connections in developed markets, 2009–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bro

ad

ba

nd

co

nn

ectio

ns (

millio

n)

Fixed broadband Mobile broadband

5-year growthopportunity for

new fixed broadbandconnections

For further information, please see Analysys Mason’s Fixed broadband: worldwide forecast 2010–2015 at

http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Viewpoints/RDMB0_Fixed_BB_worldwide_forecast/.

29

67485649/225

Operator‟s focus is moving from

outside to inside

30

67485649/225

Digital home multimedia

Content creation

Professional content

User-generated content

Services

Content

Service wrap

Content aggregation

Professional

User-generated

Devices

Primary terminals

Peripheral devices

Connectivity

To the home

In-home

Consumer

31

67485649/225

Multimedia digital home services

Whole-home

DVR

Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/lge CC BY 2.0

32

67485649/225

Multimedia digital home services

Whole-home

DVR

Digital music1

Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/lge CC BY 2.0 Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/horiavarlan CC

BY 2.0

1 For further information, please see Analysys Mason’s Digital music services: strategies for operators at

http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Viewpoints/Analysys_Mason_RDMB0_RDMY0_Digital_music_strategies_Mar2011/.

34

67485649/225

Multimedia digital home services

Online storage and

backup1

Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/walkn CC BY

2.0

1 For further information, please see Analysys Mason’s Online storage is a growth market that ISPs cannot afford to ignore at

http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Viewpoints/Online-storage-is-a-growth-market-that-ISPs-cannot-afford-to-ignore/.

35

67485649/225

Multimedia digital home services

Technical support

and warranty

services2

Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/walkn CC BY

2.0

1 For further information, please see Analysys Mason’s Online storage is a growth market that ISPs cannot afford to ignore at

http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Viewpoints/Online-storage-is-a-growth-market-that-ISPs-cannot-afford-to-ignore/.

2 For further information, please see Analysys Mason’s Beyond voice: how telcos are realising the potential of ICT support services at

http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Viewpoints/Beyond-voice-how-telcos-are-realising-the-potential-of-ICT-support-services/.

Online storage and

backup1

Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/alanclarkdesign CC BY-

ND 2.0

36

67485649/225

Home automation value chain

Services

Service wrap

Actual services

Applications

Devices and appliances

Enabling devices

Single-function devices

Appliances

Networks

Utility networks

Communications networks

In-home networks

Consumer

37

67485649/225

Home security and

monitoring

Home automation services

Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/fotdmike CC

BY 2.0

38

67485649/225

Home automation services

Energy

management

Home security and

monitoring

Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/fotdmike CC

BY 2.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

01

Ap

r

08

Ap

r

15

Ap

r

22

Ap

r

29

Ap

r

06

Ma

y

Avera

ge t

em

pera

ture

(d

egre

es C

els

ius)

Daily u

sage (

kW

h)

Usage (kWh) Average temperature (Celcius)

39

67485649/225

Multimedia

Home

automation

Past Present Future

Music Video Game

s

Devices

Music

Video

Game

s Different types

of content to

dedicated

devices

Different

types of

content to

various

devices

Devices

Music

Video

Game

s

Different

types of

content

flowing from

one device to

another

Proprietary home

controller connected

to various functions

(HVAC, lighting, etc.)

Move towards open

standards grows the

market, yet home

automation network

remains separate

Home automation

network integrated with

multimedia network,

appliances connected

to home network

40

67485649/225

A glimpse into the future?

Source: KT Corp. (Kyeonggi-do, Korea, 2011), KT to Launch Kibot, a robot for kids, first-ever in the world. Available at http://www.kt.com/eng/index.jsp.

41

67485649/225

Food for thought – an engineering

challenge

“In the old days of Radio, one person, or a small group,

spoke to hundreds, or thousands or tens of thousands.

They were trained in the subject and even trained to

speak on a microphone.

Nowadays, with Internet, everyone has a voice, everyone

says his bit.

The ratio of mouths to ears has changed. The ratio of

literate to illiterate communication has changed”.

42

67485649/225

Pat Kidney

Pat.kidney@analysysmason.com

Suite 242, The Capel Building

Mary's Abbey

Dublin 7, Ireland

Tel: +353 86 2446091

www.analysysmason.com