IESO 18MonthOutlook_2010may

8/6/2019 IESO 18MonthOutlook_2010may

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From June 2010 to November 2011

An Assessment of the Reliability and Operability of the Ontario Electricity System


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IESO_REP_0608v1.0 18-Month Outlook

Thispageintentionallyleftblank.


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Executive Summary

Ontariossupplyoutlookforthenext18monthsremainspositivewithsufficient

resourcesavailabletomaintainthereliabilityofOntarioselectricitysystem,andto

supplycommunitiesacrosstheprovince. FromJune2010toNovember2011,

approximately2,900megawatts(MW)ofnewandrefurbishedsupplyarescheduledto

entercommercialoperation. Ofthat,approximately470MWofnewgenerationhas

beenannouncedundertheFeedinTariff(FIT)programand180MWcontractedunder

theRenewableEnergySupplyIII(RESIII)program.

Asaresultofthepositivesupplyconditions,thederegistrationoffourcoalfiredunitsat

LambtonandNanticokerepresenting2,000MWofenergysupplyandcapacity has

beenapprovedbytheIESOforearlyfallof2010. Thereplacementfleetfortheseunits

hasdemonstratedreliableoperationoverthelasttwopeakperiodsandtheshutdownof

theseunitsisnotexpectedtoundulyimpacteitherenergyadequacyorreliabilityof

supplyinOntario.

ThereturntoserviceoftworefurbishednuclearunitsattheBruceANuclearStationis

stillexpectedwithinthe18monthforecasttimeframe;howevertheexpectedinservice

datesforthetwounitsarenowthethirdandfourthquartersof2011. Thisadditional

1,500MWcapacitywillincreasesupplyoptions,althoughBruceareasupplywillnotbe

abletooperateatfullcapacityuntiltheBrucetoMiltontransmissionlineiscomplete

whichisexpectedin2012.

Surplusbaseloadgeneration(SBG)isexpectedtocontinueovertheforecasttimeframe,

especiallyduringthesummersof2010and2011whenbaseloadcapacityisexpectedtoexceedforecastminimumdemand. Duringthesetimesofsurplus,theprovincerelies

heavilyonitsabilitytoexport. Plannedoutagestoseveralcircuitsmakingupthe

OntarioNewYorkinterconnectionatNiagaraarecurrentlybeingconsideredfor

NovemberandDecember2010. Ifapproved,theseoutageswillreduceOntariosability

toexportpower,andincreasethelikelihoodofSBG. Thecurrentforecastincludesan

updatedexportassumptionrecognizingtheevolvingconditionsonOntarios

interconnections.

Overthenext18months,theIESOcontinuestoexpectarelativelyhighlikelihoodof

surplusconditionsinsummeroffpeakperiods,comparedtothewinterandshoulder

periodmonths.Limitedprecipitationthispastwinterandspringhascontributedto

uncertaintyaroundhydroelectriccapabilityoverthesummermonthsandlowerthan

forecasthydroelectricproductionwouldreducesurplusconditions.

Demandgrowthoverthelastdecadehasresultedinsomearealoadsreachingor

exceedingthecapabilityofthelocaltransmissionsystem. Toalleviatethesituation,

severallocalloadsupplyimprovementprojectswillcomeinserviceoverthenext18

May 20, 2010 Publ ic Page i i i


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monthstorelieveloadingsofexistingtransmissioninfrastructureandprovide

additionalcapacityforfutureloadgrowth.

ThroughouttheOutlookperiod,demandwillbeshapedbythreemainfactors:the

economy,conservationandthegrowthinembeddedgenerationfromOntarios

renewableinitiatives.AlthoughtherisksofOntarioseconomyslippingbackinto

recessionhavemoderated,worldeconomiesremainfragileduetohighnationaldebt

loads,highoilpricesandtheprospectsofhigherborrowingcosts.WhileCanadahas

reportedlyfaredbetterthanmanyothercountries,Ontariosexportbased

manufacturingsectorhasseenitscompetitivepositionunderminedbytheriseinvalue

oftheCanadiandollar.

EnergydemandinOntarioisexpectedtoshowmodestgrowthin2010and2011with

increasesof1.3percentand1.0percentrespectively. Thegrowthwillcomefroma

broadbasedexpansionoftheeconomy.Themanufacturingsectorisexpectedtoshow

anincreaseover2009butisexpectedtolagtherestoftheeconomyasindustrialdemandisnotexpectedtoreturntoprerecessionarylevelsduetothehighCanadiandollarand

slowinternationalgrowth. Peakdemandsareexpectedtoremainfairlyflatasgrowthis

offsetbytargetedconservationprograms.

Recentlyannouncedgovernmenttargetsforconservation,whoseimpactsareexpected

toshowbeginningJanuary2011,willfacilitatethelongertermreductionofpeak

demandandmoderatethegrowthofenergydemandacrosstheprovince. These

conservationtargetswillbemetthroughprogramsdeliveredbylocalutilities,andthe

OntarioPowerAuthoritywithoversightfromtheOntarioEnergyBoard. Theseefforts,

incombinationwithimprovedenergyefficiencyandthedeploymentofsmartmeters,

willresultinbothlowerconsumptionandashiftinconsumptionpatterns.

Thefollowingtablesummarizesthekeydemandnumbers.

SeasonNormal Weather Peak

(MW)

Extreme Weather Peak

(MW)

Summer 2010 23,498 25,998

Winter 2010-11 22,473 23,782

Summer 2011 23,464 25,938

May 20, 2010 Publ ic Page iv


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Conclusions & Observations

Thefollowingconclusionsandobservationsarebasedontheresultsofthisassessment.

DemandForecast

Electricitydemandisexpectedtoexperienceanincreasein2010and2011. GrowthwillbeslowasOntariosenergyintensiveexportbasedindustrieslagtherestoftheeconomy.

Peakdemandsareexpectedtoremainflatthroughouttheforecast. Conservationprogramstargetingpeakdemand,thegrowthinembeddedgenerationandtimeofuserateswilloffset

theincreasesduetopopulationandbuildingstockgrowth.

Withlowerpeakdemandlevelssystemreliabilitywillremainrobust. Althoughhighpeakdemandsarelikelyunderextremeweatherconditionstheywillnotposeanyprovincewide

reliabilityconcerns.

Lowminimumdemandperiodsremainaconcernastheyincreasethelikelihoodofsurplusbaseloadgeneration. Thiswillpersistthroughouttheforecast.

ResourceAdequacy

Reserverequirementsareexpectedtobemetforallbutoneweekinboththefirmandplannednormalweatherscenario. Thisisduetotwomajorgeneratorplannedoutagesand

onemajortransmissionoutageresultinginbottledcapacity.

Anumberofgeneratingunitsarescheduledtoreturntoservicefromplannedoutagebeforesummer2010.

Planstoderegisterfourcoalgenerationunitsbylate2010willcontinueasannounced. PlansforthereturntoserviceoftworefurbishedBrucenuclearunitshavebeendelayedbyafew

monthstothethirdandfourthquartersof2011.

ThisOutlookdemonstratesthattheinitialemissionlimitsfromcoalpoweredgenerationshouldbeachievableoverthenext18monthperiodwithoutimpactingonreliability,

althoughthecompletestrategytoachievereductionsfor2010onwardshasnotbeen

confirmed.

Normal W eather Scenario Extreme Weather Scenario

PlannedScenario

Thereis1weekwherereserveislowerthanrequired

Thereare9weekswherereservesarelowerthanrequired.

FirmScenario

Thereis1weekwherereserveislowerthanrequired

Thereare12weekswherereservesarelowerthanrequired.

Underthenormalandextremeweatherscenarios,periodswheretheforecastreservesarenotsufficienttomeetrequirementsmayresultinrelianceonimports,therejectionofplanned

outagesbytheIESO,ortheuseofemergencyoperatingprocedures.

May 20, 2010 Publ ic Page v


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TransmissionAdequacy

TheOntariotransmissionsystemwiththeplannedsystemenhancementsandscheduledmaintenanceoutagesisexpectedtobeadequatetosupplythedemandunderthenormal

weatherconditionsforecastfortheOutlookperiod.

Thesupplyreliabilityunderextremeweatherconditions,inparticulartotheGTA,willbefurtherimprovedwiththeadditionoftheHaltonHillsGeneratingStationinthethird

quarterof2010. Underextremeweatherconditionsthelongtermderatecurrentlyona

Trafalgarautotransformermayrequiresomeloadreductionmeasuresifadditionalelements

areoutofservice.

SeveralprojectsrelatingtolocalloadsupplyimprovementswillbeplacedinserviceduringthetimeframeofthisOutlooktohelprelieveloadingsofexistingtransformerstationsand

provideadditionaltransformercapacityforfutureloadgrowth.

The230kVcircuitBP76formsanintegralpartoftheOntario NewYorkinterfaceatNiagaraFalls. Duetothevariablenatureofitsflows,thisinterfaceisoneofthemostchallengingto

manageintheEasternInterconnection,keepingsystemoperatorsaroundtheGreatLakes,

whichincludetheIESO,NYISO,PJMandMISO,fullyengaged. Theongoingforcedoutage

oftheBP76interconnectionhascompoundedthecomplexitiesofthese reliability

coordinationefforts,addedtoOntariossurplusbaseloadgeneration(SBG)eventsandhas

materiallyledtoincreasednuclearreductionsandhydroelectricspillconditionsoverthelast

year. OutagesoftwootherlinesoftheNiagarainterconnection(PA301andPA302)are

currentlybeingplannedforNovemberandDecember2010. Theseoutageshavethepotential

toreducethescheduledtransfercapabilityoftheNiagarainterconnectiontozeroandalso

impacttheOntariotoMichigantransfers.

TransmissionoutagesscheduledinthisOutlookperiodintheBruce,Essa,Niagara,Northeast,Northwest,Ottawa,Southwest,TorontoandWestzoneswillcausereductionsto

thegridtransfercapabilityforperiodsoftime. Theresultinglimitreductionsalongwiththe

increaseofavailablegenerationinthoseareasmayresultintemporarilybottledgeneration

capacity.

Transmissionconstraintsoverthe230kVSarnia/WindsortoLondonareamaylimittheabilitytoutilizethegenerationresourcesinsouthwesternOntarioinconjunctionwith

importsfromMichigan. Thiscongestioncouldfurtherincreaseasaresultoftransmission

outagesandweatherconditions. ThescheduledshutdownoftwoLambtonGSunitsin

October2010isexpectedtoreducethecongestionovertheremainderofthisOutlookperiod.

HydroOneiscurrentlyinstallingadditionalreactivecompensationinwesternand

southwesternOntarioinpreparationfortheplannedshutdownofthemajorsouthern

Ontariocoalfiredunits.

Managing

grid

voltages

in

the

Northwest

has

always

required

special

attention,

but

with

the

significantlylowerdemand,ithasbeenincreasinglydifficulttomaintainanacceptable

voltageprofilewithoutcompromisingthesecurityandreliabilityofthesupply. TheIESO

hascontactedHydroOne,andisalsoinconversationswiththeOPA,ineffortstoexamine

theshortandlongtermsolutionstothismatter.

HydroOnesplantoenhancetheexistingMississagiTSandAlgomaTSgenerationrejectionschemes,scheduledforcompletionduringthelastquarterof2014,isexpectedtoimprovethe

powertransfercapabilityofthetransmissioncorridoreastofMississagi.

May 20, 2010 Publ ic Page v i


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RetirementoftheNortheast25Hzsystemwascompletedduringthefirstquarterof2010.Therearenomore25Hzfacilitiesoperatingintheprovince.

Operability

SBGconditionsareexpectedinsummer2010and2011. InNovemberandDecember2010,scheduledoutagesontheOntarioNewYorkinterconnectionatNiagarawillimpactOntariosabilitytoexportpower,andincreasethe

riskofSBG. Theexportassumptionhasbeenrevisedtoaccountforincreasedexportcapacity

viatheHVDCtietoQuebec,aswellasreducedexportcapacityduringsignificantplanned

outagestoOntariointerconnections.

EndofSection

May 20, 2010 Publ ic Page v i i


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May 20, 2010 Publ ic Page v i i i

Caution and Disclaimer

Thecontentsofthesematerialsarefordiscussionandinformationpurposesandareprovidedas

iswithoutrepresentationorwarrantyofanykind,includingwithoutlimitation,accuracy,

completenessorfitnessforanyparticularpurpose. TheIndependentElectricitySystemOperator

(IESO)assumesnoresponsibilitytoyouoranythirdpartyfortheconsequencesofanyerrorsor

omissions. TheIESOmayrevisethesematerialsatanytimeinitssolediscretionwithoutnotice

toyou. AlthougheveryeffortwillbemadebytheIESOtoupdatethesematerialstoincorporate

anysuchrevisionsitisuptoyoutoensureyouareusingthemostrecentversion.


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Table of Contents

Executive Summary .......................................................................................... iiiConc lusions & Observat ions .............................................................................. vTable of Contents .............................................................................................. ix Li st of Tables ...................................................................................................... xLi st of Figu res .................................................................................................... x1.0 Introduct ion ............................................................................................ 12.0 Updates to This Outlook .......................................................................... 3

2.1 Updates to Demand Forecast .................................................................................... 32.2 Updates to Resources ............................................................................................... 32.3 Updates to Transmission Outlook ............................................................................... 32.4 Updates to Operability Outlook .................................................................................. 3

3.0 Demand Forecast ..................................................................................... 54.0 Resource Adequacy Assessment ............................................................. 7

4.1 Committed and Contracted Generation Resources ....................................................... 74.2 Summary of Scenario Assumptions ............................................................................ 84.3 Planned Scenario with Normal and Extreme Weather ................................................... 94.4 Firm Scenario with Normal and Extreme Weather ...................................................... 104.5 Comparison of Resource Scenarios........................................................................... 10

5.0 Transm iss ion Reli ab ili ty Assessment .................................................... 13 5.1 Transmission and Load Supply Projects .................................................................... 135.2 Transmission Outages ............................................................................................. 135.3 Transmission System Adequacy ............................................................................... 14

6.0 Operab il it y Assessment ......................................................................... 217.0 His tor ical Rev iew ................................................................................... 23

7.1 Weather and Demand Historical Review ................................................................... 237.2 Hourly Resource Contributions at Time of Weekday Peak ........................................... 237.3 Report on Initiatives ............................................................................................... 267.4 Variation from Previous Year ................................................................................... 26

May 20, 2010 Publ ic Page ix


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May 20, 2010 Publ ic Page x

List of Tables

Table 3.1: Forecast Summary ................................................................................................ 5Table 4.1 Existing Generation Resources as of May 5, 2010 ..................................................... 7 Table 4.2 Committed and Contracted Generation Resources .................................................... 8Table 4.3 Summary of Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................... 9Table 4.4 Summary of Available Resources ........................................................................... 10List of Figures

Figure 4.1 Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Normal vs. Extreme Weather ..... 9Figure 4.2 Reserve Above Requirement: Firm Scenario with Normal vs. Extreme Weather ........ 10Figure 4.3 Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Present Outlook vs. Previous

Outlook ...................................................................................................................... 11Figure 5.1 Greater Toronto Area Electricity System................................................................ 15Figure 6.1 Minimum Demand and Baseload Generation ......................................................... 21Figure 7.2.1 Wind Contributions at the Time of Weekday Peak ............................................... 24Figure 7.2.2 Hydro Contributions (Energy and Operating Reserve) at the Time of Weekday Peak

................................................................................................................................. 24Figure 7.2.3 Imports into Ontario at the Time of Weekday Peak ............................................. 25Figure 7.2.4 Net Interchange into Ontario at the Time of Weekday Peak ................................. 26


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1.0 Introduction

ThisOutlookcoversthe18monthperiodfromJune2010toNovember2011andsupersedesthe

lastOutlookreleasedinFebruary2010.

Thepurposeofthe18MonthOutlookis:

ToadvisemarketparticipantsoftheresourceandtransmissionreliabilityoftheOntarioelectricitysystem;

Toassesspotentiallyadverseconditionsthatmightbeavoidedthroughadjustmentorcoordinationofmaintenanceplansforgenerationandtransmissionequipment;and

Toreportoninitiativesbeingputinplacetoimprovereliabilitywithinthe18monthtimeframeofthisOutlook.

ThecontentsofthisOutlookfocusontheassessmentofresourceandtransmissionadequacy.

AdditionalsupportingdocumentsarelocatedontheIESOwebsiteat

http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/monthsYears/monthsAhead.asp

ThisOutlookpresentsanassessmentofresourceandtransmissionadequacybasedonthestated

assumptions,usingthedescribedmethodology. Readersmayenvisionotherpossiblescenarios,

recognizingtheuncertaintiesassociatedwithvariousinputassumptions,andareencouragedto

usetheirownjudgmentinconsideringpossiblefuturescenarios.

SecurityandAdequacyAssessmentsarepublishedontheIESOwebsiteonaweeklyanddaily

basis,andprogressivelysupersedeinformationpresentedinthisreport.

ReadersareinvitedtoprovidecommentsonthisOutlookreportortogivesuggestionsastothe

contentoffuturereports. Todoso,pleasecontactusat:

TollFree: 18884487777 Tel: 9054036900 Fax: 9054036921 Email:[email protected].

EndofSection

May 20, 2010 Publ ic Page 1
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2.0 Updates to This Outlook

2.1 Updates to Demand Forecast

Thedemandforecastwasbasedonactualdemand,weatherandeconomicdatathroughtothe

endofFebruary2010. Theeconomicoutlookhasbeenupdatedbasedonthemostrecentdata.

ActualweatheranddemanddataforMarchandAprilhavebeenincludedinthetables.

2.2 Updates to Resources

Installedcapacityhasincreasedby296MWasaresultofthefollowingchanges:

Nuclearupgrade(+20MW) RetirementofWawaitin25Hz (11MW) ThoroldCogenerationProject(+287MW) TheconversionofFortFrances(47MW)fromgastobiomass

TheassessmentusesplannedgeneratoroutagesassubmittedbymarketparticipantstotheIESOsIntegratedOutageManagementSystem(IOMS). ThisOutlookisbasedonsubmitted

generationoutageplansasofApril21,2010.

2.3 Updates to Transmission Outlook

Thelistoftransmissionprojects,plannedtransmissionoutagesandactualexperiencewithforced

transmissionoutageshavebeenupdatedfromtheprevious18MonthOutlook. ForthisOutlook,

transmissionoutageplanssubmittedtotheIOMSasofMarch25,2010wereused.

2.4 Updates to Operabil ity Outlook

Aforecastofsurplusbaseloadgeneration(SBG)conditionsforthenext18monthshasbeen

updatedwithsubmittedgenerationoutageplansasofApril21,2010. Theexpectedcontribution

tobaseloadfromvariableresourcessuchashydroelectricandwindgenerationhasalsobeen

updatedtoreflectthemostrecentinformation.

EndofSection



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3.0 Demand Forecast

TheIESOisresponsibleforforecastingelectricitydemandontheIESOcontrolledgrid. This

demandforecastcoverstheperiodJune2010toNovember2011andsupersedestheprevious

forecastreleasedFebruary2010. Tablescontainingsupportinginformationarecontainedinthe

2010Q2OutlookTablesspreadsheet.

ElectricitydemandisexpectedtoincreaseovertheforecasthorizonastheOntarioeconomy

experiencesgrowththroughout201011. Industrialdemandwillnotreturntoprerecession

levelsbutwillshowimprovementoverthelowsof2009. Thehighdollarwillcontinuetoactasa

moderatoronOntarioselectricallyintensiveexportbasedindustries.

Peakdemandsareexpectedtoremainflatovertheforecasthorizonasconservationprograms,

thegrowthinembeddedgenerationandtimeofuserateswillacttooffsetincreasesfrom

economicanddemographicgrowth.

Thefollowingtableshowstheseasonalpeaksandannualenergydemandovertheforecast

horizonoftheOutlook.

Table 3.1: Forecast Summ ary

Season Normal Weather Peak (MW) Extreme Weather Peak (MW)

Summer 2010 23,498 25,998

Winter 2010-11 22,473 23,782

Summer 2011 23,464 25,938

Year Normal Weather Energy (TWh) % Growth in Energy

2006 Energy 152.3 -1.9%

2007 Energy 151.6 -0.5%

2008 Energy 148.9 -1.8%

2009 Energy 140.4 -5.7%

2010 Energy (Forecast) 142.2 1.3%

2011 Energy (Forecast) 143.6 1.0%

ForecastDetails

Thecompaniondocument,theOntarioDemandForecast,looksatdemandinmoredetail. It

containsthefollowing:

detailsonthedemandforecast, analysisofhistoricaldemand, discussionoftheimpactofthedriversaffectingdemand.

ThedatacontainedintheOntarioDemandForecastdocumentareincludedinthe2010Q2

OutlookTablesspreadsheet.

EndofSection

http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xlshttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/marketReports/18MonthOutlookTables_2010may.xls


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4.0 Resource Adequacy Assessment

Thissectionprovidesanassessmentoftheadequacyofresourcestomeettheforecastdemand.

Thekeymessagesare:

Whenreservesarebelowrequiredlevelswithpotentiallyadverseeffectsonthereliabilityofthegrid,theIESOhastheauthoritytorejectoutagesbasedontheirorderof

precedence.

Conversely,anopportunityexistsforadditionaloutageswhenreservesareaboverequiredlevels.

Theseactionsaddressshortagesandsurplusesofreservestoalargeextent.

Inrecognitionoftheuncertaintythatexistsregardingthefutureavailabilityofresources,two

resourcescenariosaredescribedinthissection:theFirmScenarioandthePlannedScenario

OverthecourseoftheOutlookperiodabout2,900MWofnewandrefurbishedsupplyis

scheduledtocomeintoservice.Mostofthenewsupplyprojectshavestartedtheir

commissioningphaseorareintheconstructionphase.

TheexistinginstalledgeneratingcapacityissummarizedinTable4.1. Thisexcludescapacitythat

iscommissioning.

Table 4.1 Existing Generation R esources as of May 5, 2010

Fuel Type

Total

Installed

Capacity

(MW)

Forecast

Capability at

Summer

Peak* (MW)

Number of

Stations

Change in

Installed

Capacity

(MW)

Change

in

Stations

Nuclear 11,446 10,767 5 20 0

Hydroelectric 7,903 5,817 70 -11 0Coal 6,434 6,161 4 0 0

Oil / Gas 8,792 7,242 27 240 0

Wind 1,084 137 8 0 0

Biomass / Landfill Gas 122 47 6 47 1

Total 35,781 30,170 120 296 1

* Actual Capability may be less as a result of transmission constraints

4.1 Commit ted and Contracted Generation Resources

Table4.2summarizesgenerationthatisscheduledtocomeintoservice,beupgradedorshut

downwithintheOutlookperiod. ThisincludesgenerationprojectsintheIESOsConnection

AssessmentandApprovalProcess(CAA)thatareunderconstructionandprojectscontractedbytheOPA. DetailsregardingtheIESOsCAAprocessandthestatusoftheseprojectscanbefound

ontheIESOswebsiteathttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/connassess/ca.asp.

TheestimatedeffectivedateinTable4.2indicatesthedateonwhichadditionalcapacityis

assumedtobeavailabletomeetOntariodemandorshutdown. Forprojectsthatareunder

contract,theestimatedeffectivedateisthebestestimateofthedatewhenthecontractrequires

theadditionalcapacitytobeavailable. Ifaprojectisdelayedtheestimatedeffectivedatewillbe

thebestestimateofthecommercialinservicedatefortheproject.

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Table 4.2 Comm itted and Contracted Generation Resources

Firm

(MW)

Planned

(MW)

Halton Hills Generating Station Southwest Gas 2010-Q3 Commissioning 632 632

Shutdown of Lambton G1 and G2 West Coal 2010-Q4 -970 -970

Shutdown of Nanticoke G3 and G4 Southwest Coal 2010-Q4 -980 -980

Return of Sandy Falls as 60 Hz plant Northeast Water 2010-Q4 ConstructionReturn of Lower Stur

pacitCa

5geon as 60 Hz plant Northeast Water 2010-Q4 Construction 14

Return of Wawaitin as 60 Hz plant Northeast Water 2010-Q4 Construction 15

Hound Chute Northeast Water 2010-Q4 Construction 10

Grid-connected FIT Projects West Wind 2010Q4 At Various Stages 166

Raleigh Wind Energy Centre West Wind 2011-Q1 Construction 78

Leamington Pollution Control Plant West Oil 2011-Q1 Approvals & Permits 2

Bruce Unit 2 Bruce Uranium 2011-Q3 2011-Q1 Construction 750

Grid-connected FIT Projects Northeast Wind 2011-Q1 At Various Stages 60

Grid-connected FIT Projects West Wind 2011-Q1 At Various Stages 49

Grid-connected FIT Projects Southwest Wind 2011-Q2 At Various Stages 69

Becker Cogeneration Northwest Biomass 2011-Q3 Approvals & Permits 15

Bruce Unit 1 Bruce Uranium 2011-Q4 2011-Q3 Construction 750

Grid-connected FIT Projects Southwest Wind 2011-Q3 At Various Stages 125

Kruger Energy Chatham Wind Project Southwest Wind 2011-Q4 Approvals & Permits 101

Total -1 ,3 1 8 8 9 0

ConsideredEstimated

Change

(PreviousProponent/Project Name Zone Fuel Type Effective

DateReported

Date)

Project Status

NotestoTable4.2:1. ShadingindicatesachangefromthepreviousOutlook.2. Thetotalmaynotaddupduetorounding. Totaldoesnotincludeinservicefacilities.3. Projectstatusprovidesanindicationoftheprojectprogress. Themilestonesusedare:

a. ConnectionAssessment theprojectisundergoinganIESOsystemimpactassessmentb. Approvals&Permits theproponentisacquiringmajorapprovalsandpermitsrequired

tostartconstruction(e.g.environmentalassessment,municipalapprovalsetc.)

c. Construction theprojectisunderconstructiond. Commissioning theprojectisundergoingcommissioningtestswiththeIESO

4.2 Summ ary of Scenario Assumptions

Inordertoassessfutureresourceadequacy,theIESOmustmakeassumptionsontheamountof

availableresources. TheOutlookconsiderstwoscenarios:aFirmScenarioandaPlanned

Scenario

as

compared

in

Table

4.3

BothscenariosstartingpointistheexistinginstalledresourcesshowninTable4.1.Theplanned

scenarioassumesthatallresourcesthatarescheduledtocomeintoserviceareavailableoverthe

studyperiodwhiletheFirmScenarioonlyassumesthosescheduledtocomeintoserviceoverthe

first3months. Bothscenariosrecognizethatresourcesthatareinservicearenotavailableduring

timesforwhichthegeneratorhassubmittedplannedoutages.Whatisalsoconsideredforboth

scenariosisthegeneratorplannedshutdownorretirementwhichhashighcertaintyof

happeninginthefuture. TheFirmandPlannedScenariosalsodifferintheirassumptions

regardingtheamountofdemandmeasuresandgenerationcapacity.

Thegenerationcapabilityassumptionsareasfollows:

Hydroelectric

capability

(including

energy

and

operating

reserve)

is

based

on

median

historicalvaluesduringweekdaypeakdemandhoursfromMay2002toMarch2010.

Thermalgeneratorscapacityandenergycontributionsarebasedonmarketparticipantsubmissions,includingplannedoutages,expectedforcedoutageratesandseasonal

deratings.

ForwindgenerationthemonthlyWindCapacityContribution(WCC)valuesareusedatthetimeofweekdaypeak,whiletotalenergycontributionisassumedtobe30%.



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Table 4.3 Summ ary of Scenario Assumptions

Total Capacity Total Capacity

35,781 MW 35,781 MW

All

Only Capacity Changes,

Generator shutdowns or

retirements, Commissioning

Generators and Generators

starting in the first 3 months

890 MW -1,318 MW

Incremental Existing

1114 MW 699 MWDemand Measures

Incremental growth of 150 MW on peak

Incremental

Incremental

Deman

dForecast Conservation

Embedded Generation

Incremental growth of 128 MW on peak

Assumptions Planned Scenario Firm Scenario

Resource

Existing Installed

Resources

New Generation and

Capacity Changes

4.3 Planned Scenario w ith Normal and Extreme Weather

ReserveAboveRequirementlevels,whichrepresentthedifferencebetweenAvailableResources

andRequiredResources,areshowninFigure4.1.

Figure 4.1 Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Normal vs. Extreme Weather

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

06 Jun 2010 05 Sep 2010 05 Dec 2010 06 Mar 2011 05 Jun 2011 04 Sep 2011

ReserveA

Week Ending

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

bo

veRequirement[MW]

Planned ScenarioNormal Weather

Reserve Above Requirement = Available Resources - (Demand + R equired Reserve)

Planned ScenarioExtreme Weather




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4.4 Firm Scenario w ith Normal and Extreme Weather

ReserveAboveRequirementlevels,whichrepresentthedifferencebetweenAvailableResources

andRequiredResources,areshowninFigure4.2.

Figure 4.2 Reserve Above Requirement: Firm Scenario with Normal vs. Extreme Weather

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000


ReserveAboveRequirement[

Week Ending

8,000

10,000

MW]

Firm ScenarioExtreme Weather

Firm ScenarioNormal Weather


4.5 Comparison of Resource Scenarios

Table4.4showsasnapshotoftheforecastavailableresources,underthetwoscenarios,atthe

timeofthesummerandwinterpeakdemandsduringtheOutlook.

Themonthlyforecastofenergyproductioncapability,asprovidedbymarketparticipants,is

includedinthe2010Q2OutlookTablesAppendixA,TableA7.

Table 4.4 Summ ary of Available Resources

Firm

Scenario

Planned

Scenario

Firm

Scenario

Planned

Scenario

Firm

Scenario

Planned

Scenario1 Installed Resources (MW) 35,781 35,781 34,463 34,751 34,463 35,805

2 Imports (MW) 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 Total Resources (MW) 35,781 35,781 34,463 34,751 34,463 35,805

4 Total Reductions in Resources (MW) 7,435 7,435 3,986 4,264 5,646 6,203

5 Demand Measures (MW) 699 951 699 1,042 699 1,114

6 Available Resources (MW) 29,045 29,297 31,176 31,529 29,516 30,716

NotesSummer Peak 2010 Winter Peak 2011 Summer Peak 2011

Description

NotestoTable4.4:

1. InstalledResources: Thisisthetotalgenerationcapacityassumedtobeinstalledatthetimeofthesummerandwinterpeaks.

2. Imports: TheamountofexternalcapacityconsideredtobedeliveredtoOntario.3. TotalResources: ThesumofInstalledResources(line1)andImports(line2).4. TotalReductionsinResources: Representthesumofderatings,plannedoutages,limitationsdueto

transmissionconstraints,generationconstraintsduetotransmissionoutages/limitationsandallowance

forcapabilitylevelsbelowratedinstalledcapacity.

5. DemandMeasures: Theamountofdemandavailabletobereduced.6. AvailableResources: EqualsTotalResources(line3)minusTotalReductionsinResources(line4)plus

DemandMeasures(line5).

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ComparisonoftheWeeklyAdequacyAssessmentsforthePlannedScenario

Figure4.3providesacomparisonbetweentheforecastReserveAboveRequirementvaluesinthe

presentOutlookandtheforecastReserveAboveRequirementvaluesinthepreviousOutlook

publishedonFebruary23,2010. Thedifferenceismainlyduetothechangestooutages,in

servicedelaysandthechangeinthedemandforecast.

Figure 4.3 Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Present Outlook vs. Previous

Outlook

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000


Rese

rveAboveRequirement[MW]

Week Ending

Previous Outlook

Planned Scenario

Present OutlookPlanned Scenario


Normal W eather

ResourceadequacyrisksarediscussedindetailintheMethodologytoPerformLongTerm

Assessments(IESO_REP_0266).

EndofSection

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5.0 Transmission Reliability Assessment

ThissectionprovidesanassessmentofthereliabilityoftheOntariotransmissionsystemforthe

Outlookperiod. Thetransmissionreliabilityassessmenthasthreekeyobjectives:

ToidentifyallmajortransmissionandloadsupplyprojectsthatareplannedforcompletionduringtheOutlookperiodandtopresenttheirreliabilitybenefits.

Toforecastanyreductionintransmissioncapacitybroughtaboutbyspecifictransmissionoutages. Foramajortransmissioninterfaceorinterconnection,thereductionintransmission

capacityduetoanoutageconditioncanbeexpressedasachangeinthebaseflowlimit

associatedwiththeinterfaceorinterconnection.

ToidentifyequipmentoutageeventsonthegridthatcouldrequirecontingencyplanningbymarketparticipantsorbytheIESO. Plannedtransmissionoutagesarereviewedin

conjunctionwithmajorplannedresourceoutagesandthescheduledcompletionofnew

generationandtransmissionprojectstoidentifytransmissionreliabilityrisks.

5.1 Transmission and Load Supply Projects

TheIESOrequirestransmitterstoprovideinformationonthetransmissionprojectsthatare

plannedforcompletionwithinthe18monthperiod. Constructionofseveraltransmission

reinforcementsareplannedforserviceduringtheOutlookperiod.Majortransmissionandload

supplyprojectsplannedtobeinserviceareshowninAppendixB. Projectsthatareinserviceor

whosecompletionhasbeendeferredwellbeyondtheperiodofthisOutlookarenotshown. The

listincludesonlythetransmissionprojectsthatrepresentmajormodificationsorareconsidered

toprovidesignificantimprovementtosystemreliability.Minortransmissionequipment

replacementsorrefurbishmentsareexcluded.

Demandgrowthoverthelastdecadehasresultedinsomearealoadsreachingorexceedingthe

capabilityofthelocaltransmissionsystem. Toaddressthisproblemandprovideadditional

transmissioncapacityforfutureloadgrowth,Ontariotransmittersanddistributorshaveinitiated

planstobuildneworreplaceexistingtransformerstationsandreinforcethetransmissionsystem

asnecessary.

TheseneededreinforcementswereconfirmedbytheIESOduringrelatedconnection

assessments. Severaloftheseprojectsarecurrentlyunderconstructionandplannedforinservice

duringtheperiodofthisOutlook.

5.2 Transmission Outages

Theassessmentoftransmissionoutagesislimitedtothosewithascheduleddurationofgreater

thanfivedaysortothoseoutagesthatarepartofaprojectwherethecombinedscheduled

durationisgreaterthanfivedays. Asthestarttimeoftheoutageapproaches,actualoutage

scheduleandadditionaloutagerequirements,aswellasoutageswithascheduleddurationof

fivedaysorlesscouldimposefurthertransmissioncapacityrestrictions. Priortoapprovingand

releasinganoutage,theIESOwillreassesstheoutageforpotentialsystemimpacts,takinginto

accountallcurrentandforecastedconditions.

TheIESOsassessmentofthetransmissionoutageplansisshowninAppendixC,TablesC1to

C10. Inthesetables,eachelementisassessedindividuallybyindicatingthepossibleimpactsand

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thereductionintransmissioninterfaceandinterconnectionlimits.Wheremultipleoutagesare

scheduledduringthesameperiod,thecombinedeffectofalloutagesonthereductionin

transmissioninterfaceandinterconnectionlimitsispresented.Wheremultipleoutagesare

scheduledduringthesameperiodandreliabilityisaffected,theIESOwillrequestthetransmitter

toreschedulesomeoftheoutages. Themethodologyusedtoassessthetransmissionoutage

plansisdescribedintheIESOdocumenttitledMethodologytoPerformLongTerm

Assessments(IESO_REP_0266).

Theplannedtransmissionoutagesarereviewedincorrelationwithmajorplannedresource

outagesandscheduledcompletiondatesofnewgenerationandtransmissionprojects. This

allowstheIESOtoidentifytransmissionsystemreliabilityconcernsandtohighlightthoseoutage

plansthatneedtobeadjusted. Achangetoanoutagemayincludereschedulingtheoutage,

reducingthescheduleddurationorreducingtherecalltime.

Thisassessmentwillalsoidentifyanyresourcesthathavepotentialorareforecasttobe

constrainedduetotransmissionoutageconditions. Transmittersandgeneratorsareexpectedto

haveamutualinterestindevelopinganongoingarrangementtocoordinatetheiroutage

planningactivities. TransmissionoutagesthatmayaffectgenerationaccesstotheIESO

controlledgridshouldbecoordinatedwiththegeneratoroperatorsinvolved,especiallyattimes

whendeficiencyinreserveisforecast. UndertheMarketRules,wheretheschedulingofplanned

outagesbydifferentmarketparticipantsconflictssuchthatbothoralloutagescannotbe

approvedbytheIESO,theIESOwillinformtheaffectedmarketparticipantsandrequestthat

theyresolvetheconflict. Iftheconflictremainsunresolved,theIESOwilldeterminewhichofthe

plannedoutagescanbeapprovedaccordingtothepriorityofeachplannedoutageasdetermined

bytheMarketRulesdetailedinChapter5,Sections6.4.13to6.4.18. ThisOutlookcontains

transmissionoutageplanssubmittedtotheIESOasofMarch25,2010.

5.3 Transmission System Adequacy

Generally,IESOOutlooksidentifytheareasoftheIESOcontrolledgridwheretheprojected

extremeweatherloadingisexpectedtoapproachorexceedthecapabilityofthetransmission

facilitiesfortheconditionsforecastintheplanningperiod. Wheretheloadingisprojectedto

exceedthecapabilityofthetransmissionfacilities,thereisalsoanincreasedriskofload

interruptions.

TheOntariogenerationmixischangingrapidlywiththeadditionofnewformsofresourcesand

theplannedshutdownofcoalresources. Thetransmissionsystemneedstoevolveto

accommodatethesupplymixchangesandtheincorporationofnewgenerationwhile

maintainingthereliabledeliveryofelectricitytotheconsumers. Overthelastfewyears,Hydro

One,theOPAandtheIESOhavebeencollaboratinginthedevelopmentofanumberof

transmissionenhancementsrequiredtoaccommodatethesechanges. Someofthesetransmission

enhancementsarescheduledtocomeintoserviceduringtheperiodofthisOutlook.

TheIESOworkswithHydroOneandotherOntariotransmitterstoidentifythehighestpriority

transmissionneeds,andtoensurethatthoseprojectswhoseinservicedatesareatriskaregiven

asmuchpriorityaspractical,especiallythoseaddressingreliabilityneedsforpeakdemand

periodsofthisOutlook.WehavealsobeenworkingcloselywiththeOPAtospecifythe

transmissionenhancementslocation,timingandrequirementstosatisfyreliabilitystandards.

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Withinthecontextofthisapproach,theOntariotransmissionsystemwiththeplannedsystem

enhancementsandknowntransmissionoutagesisexpectedtobeadequatetosupplythedemand

underthenormalweatherconditionsforecastfortheOutlookperiod.

5.3.1 Toronto and Surrounding Area

TheGreaterTorontoArea(GTA)electricitysupplyismainlyprovidedbytheTrafalgar,

Claireville,ParkwayandCherrywood500/230kVautotransformers,Pickeringgenerationstation

(GS)andotherlocalresourcesasdepictedinFigure5.1. Theavailabilityofthesefacilitiesis

criticaltoensuringreliableelectricitysupplyforTorontoandsurroundingarea.

Figure 5.1 Greater Toronto Area Electricity System

ThereliablesupplyofdemandintheGTAunderextremeweatherconditionsforecastedforthe

Outlookperiodrequiresaminimumnumberof500/230kVautotransformersatTrafalgar,

Claireville,ParkwayandCherrywoodandPickeringunitsinserviceatratedcapabilities. Forthe

summer2010forecastedpeakdemand,all500/230kVautotransformersareexpectedtobein

service. TheprojectedloadingsontheTrafalgar,Claireville,ParkwayandCherrywood500/230

kVautotransformers,undernormalweatherconditions,areexpectedtobewithintheircapability

duringtheseplannedoutages. Underextremeweatherconditions,duetoalongtermderated



26/36


Trafalgarautotransformer,someloadreductionmeasuresmayberequiredtomanageadditional

contingencies.

ThecapabilityoftheGTA500/230kVautotransformersissufficienttosupplythesummer2010

normalandextremeweatherdemand. IfanyoneGTA500/230kVautotransformerisforcedoutofservice,thecapabilityoftheremainingtransformerswillsufficeaslongasatleastfour

Pickeringunitsareinserviceatthetimeofthecontingency. Similarly,atleastfivePickering

unitswouldneedtobeinservicetooffsetthelossoftwo500/230kVautotransformers.

Subsequentautotransformer,generationoutagesorderatescouldresultinmitigatingmeasures

beingrequiredtoreducetheremainingGTA500/230kVautotransformersloadingswithintheir

capability.

PortlandsEnergyCentreprovidesloadingreliefmainlytothe230/115kVLeaside

autotransformersbutalsototheCherrywood500/230kVautotransformers. GorewayStation

providessignificantloadingrelieftotheClaireville500/230kVautotransformers,especiallyin

caseofmultipleautotransformeroutages. TheplannedadditionofHaltonHillsGSinthethird

quarterof2010willfurtherreducethepeakloadingoftheTrafalgar500/230kVautotransformers

andallowformoreoperationalflexibility.

The230kVtransmissioncorridorbetweenTrafalgarTSandRichviewTSwhichsupplies

Brampton,MississaugaandpartsofCaledonandHaltonHillscouldbecomeloadedverycloseto

itscapabilityduringsummer2010underextremeweatherconditions. ThenewHurontario

switchingstationandtheexpansionofthe230kVlinesfromCardiffTSthatwasrecentlyplaced

inservicewillrelievetheloadingofthiscorridorandalleviatethisproblem.

TheYorkregionloadservingcapabilitywillbereinforcedwiththeadditionofYorkEnergy

Centrethatisscheduledtogoinserviceattheendof2011.

OutagesfortheClairevilleTSenhancementworkcontinueduringthecurrentOutlookperiod.

SomeoutageswillresultinsmallreductionstosouthernOntariotransmissioninterfacelimits.

5.3.2 Bruce and Southwest Zones

PlannedrefurbishmentsattheBrucegenerationstationandnewwindpowerresourcesin

southwesternOntariowillincreasegenerationcapacityintheBruceandSouthwestzones. The

neartermtransmissionreinforcementsrequiredtoaccommodatetheextragenerationareon

schedulewiththeinstallationofoneadditionalcapacitoratBuchanan.

Inadditiontotheneartermreinforcementsdescribedabove,interimmeasuresarebeingplanned

forthetimewhenBruceisoperatedwithsevenandeightunitsbeforetheproposed500kV

doublecircuitlinebetweenBruceandMiltonisavailable. Theinterimmeasuresincludethe

installationofadditionaldynamicvoltagecontrolfacilitiesatNanticokeandDetweiler,

scheduledtogoinserviceduringthesecondquarterof2011andwhennecessary,maximizing

the

available

reactive

power

from

the

remaining

Nanticoke

units.

These

measures

together

with

thenewshuntcapacitors,themodificationsoftheexistingBrucespecialprotectionsystemand

plannedshutdownoffourcoalfiredunitsinOctober2010willfurtherreducethepotentialfor

constrainedgeneration. Inthelongerterm,theproposed500kVlinefromBrucetoMiltonwill

providetherequiredtransmissioncapabilitytodeliverthefullbenefitsoftheBruce

refurbishmentprojectandthedevelopmentofnewrenewableresourcesinsouthwesternOntario.

Topreventlowvoltageconditionsinthe115kVtransmissionsystemintheWoodstockarea

duringsummerextremeweatherconditions,HydroOneisplanningtoaddanewtransformer



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stationandasecondsupplypointbyextendingthe230kVtransmissionlinesfromIngersollto

Woodstockareaandinstallinganew230/115kVtransformerstation. Theseplans,scheduledto

becompletedduringthesecondquarterof2011,willprovideanincreasedlevelofsupply

reliability,andsupportfurtherloadgrowthinthearea.

HydroOneiscurrentlyundertakingmajorupgradeworkatBurlingtonTSwhichwillresolve

limitationsinthestationsabilitytosupplytheBurlington115kVarealoads,allowfutureload

growthandyieldamoreflexibleconfiguration. Theremainingwork,whichincludesthe

replacementofall115kVbreakersandthereplacementoflimitingbussections,isscheduledto

becompletedbytheendofthefourthquarterof2012.

Theexisting115kVtransmissionfacilitiesintheGuelphareaareoperatingclosetocapacityand

thereislimitedcapabilityavailabletosupplyadditionalload.HydroOne,theaffected

transmitter,andtheOPAarereviewingvariousoptionsforenhancingtheoverallsupply

capabilitytotheGuelphareaandadecisiononthepreferredsolutionisexpectedinthefallof

2010.

AsolutionalsoremainsrequiredintheCambridgearea,asexistingtransmissioninfrastructureis

unabletomeettheIESOsloadrestorationcriteriafollowingacontingency. TheOPAis

reviewingaproposaltoinstallgasfiredgenerationcapacityatCambridgePrestonTS.

5.3.3 Niagara Zone and the New York Interconnection

ThecompletiondatefortransmissionreinforcementsfromtheNiagararegionintotheHamilton

Burlingtonareacontinuestobedelayed. ThisdelayimpactsboththeuseoftheavailableOntario

generationintheNiagaraareaandimportsintotheprovince,particularlyduringhotweather

andhighdemandperiods.

The230kVcircuitBP76formsanintegralpartoftheOntario NewYorkinterfaceatNiagara

Falls. Duetothevariablenatureofitsflows,thisinterfaceisoneofthemostchallengingto

manage

in

the

Eastern

Interconnection,

keeping

system

operators

around

the

Great

Lakes,

which

includetheIESO,NYISO,PJMandMISO,fullyengaged. Thelongtermforcedoutageofthe

BP76interconnectionhascompoundedthecomplexitiesofthesereliabilitycoordinationefforts,

addedtoOntariossurplusbaseloadgeneration(SBG)eventsandmateriallyledtoincreased

nuclearreductionsandhydroelectricspillconditionsoverthelastyear. Plannedoutagesoftwo

otherlinesoftheNiagarainterconnection(PA301andPA302)arecurrentlybeingplannedfor

NovemberandDecember2010. Theseoutageshavethepotentialtoreducethescheduled

transfercapabilityoftheNiagarainterconnectiontozeroandalsoimpacttheOntariotoMichigan

transfers. Inordertohelpfacilitatethesepotentialoutages,theIESOrecentlydirectedHydro

OnetoscheduleandcompletetheconstructionofabypassuntilthefailedR76voltageregulator

isreplaced. TheexpectedreturntoserviceofBP76withR76replacediscurrentlyDecember

2012.

5.3.4 East Zone and Ottawa Zone

SomeoutagesplannedoverthisOutlookperiodintheOttawaareawillreduceitssupply

capabilitybutnoloadreductionmeasuresareexpectedtoberequired.



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5.3.5 West Zone and the Michigan Interconnection

TransmissionconstraintsinthiszonemayrestrictresourcesinsouthwesternOntarioandimports

fromMichigan. ThisisevidentinthebottledgenerationamountsshownfortheBruceandWest

zonesinTablesA3andA6. TheplannedshutdownoftwoLambtonGScoalfiredunitswill

reduce,butnoteliminatetheamountofbottledgenerationinthiszone.

Phaseangleregulators(PARs)areinstalledontheOntarioMichiganinterconnectionat

LambtonTS,representingtwoofthefourinterconnectionswithMichigan,butarenotcurrently

operationaluntilcompletionofagreementsbetweentheIESO,theMISO,HydroOneand

InternationalTransmissionCompany. Theexpectedinservicedateisnotknownatthistime.

TheoperationofthesePARsalongwiththePARontheOntarioMichiganinterconnectionnear

Windsorwillcontrolflowstoalimitedextent,andassistinthemanagementofsystem

congestion.

ThecapabilitytocontrolflowsontheOntarioMichiganinterconnectionbetweenScottTSand

BunceCreekisunavailable. ThePARinstalledatBunceCreekinMichiganhasfailedandis

scheduledforreplacementbythebeginningofQ3in2010.

5.3.6 Northeast and Northwest Zones

ThetransmissioncorridoreastofMississagiTShasbeenexperiencingincreasedcongestiondue

totheadditionofnewresourcesandlackoftransmissionreinforcements. Itisexpectedthat

congestionwillincreaseevenfurtherwhenprojectscurrentlyunderconstructioninthearea

becomeoperational.

HydroOneisplanningtoimplementinthefourthquarterof2012someofthemodifications

recommendedbytheIESOtotheexistingMississagigenerationrejectionschemethathasthe

potentialtoalleviate,inthenearterm,theconstrainedgenerationwestofMississagi.

TofurtherreducethecongestioninnorthernOntarioandimprovethetransfercapability,Hydro

OneisplanningtoinstalladditionaldynamicreactivecompensationfacilitiesatPorcupineTS,in

thefourthquarterof2010andKirklandLakeTS,inthefirstquarterof2011. Inpreparationfor

additionalrenewablegenerationinnorthernOntario,HydroOneisplanningtoincreasethe

northsouthtransfercapabilitybyinstallingseriescompensationatNobelSS,proposedtogoin

serviceinthelastquarterof2010.

During2010,extensiveworkonthetransmissioncircuitsintheKenora FortFrancesareais

scheduled. TheassociatedoutageswillreducetheOntarioManitobaandOntarioMinnesota

interconnectiontransfercapacityandalsotheEastWesttransmissioninterfacecapability. The

reductionoftheEastWestTransferEast(EWTE)limitisexpectedtocontributetotheincreased

amountofbottledgenerationintheNorthwestzone.

ManaginggridvoltagesintheNorthwesthasalwaysrequiredspecialattention;withthe

significantlylowerdemands,itisincreasinglydifficulttomaintainanacceptablevoltageprofile

withoutcompromisingthesecurityandreliabilityofthesupply.

Overthepastyearithasbecomemoredifficulttomanagevoltagesthroughoutthetransmission

systeminnorthwesternOntario. Onseveraloccasionsnormaldispatchactionswereexhausted,

andexceptionalvoltagecontrolmeasureswererequired,includingthetemporaryremovalofone

ormoretransmissioncircuitsfromserviceduringlightloadorlowtransferconditionsto

maintainvoltageswithinacceptableranges. Thisreducedthegridsabilitytowithstand

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disturbancesandsubsequentlyunderminedthecustomerssupplyreliability.Additionalreactive

compensationisrequiredforvoltagecontrolinthezone.

TheIESOhascontactedHydroOne,andisalsoinconversationswiththeOPA,inaneffortto

examinetheshortandlongtermsolutionstothismatter.

5.3.7 Ontario 25 Hz SystemThe25HzsysteminnortheasternOntariowasdecommissionedduringthefirstquarterof2010.

Therearenomore25Hzfacilitiesoperatingintheprovince.

EndofSection



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6.0 Operability Assessment

TheIESOmonitorsexistingandemergingoperabilityissuesthatcouldpotentiallyimpactsystem

reliability. InMarch2010,unseasonablywarmtemperaturescontributedtolowerthanforecast

minimumdemands. Thisresultedinisolatedsurplusbaseloadgeneration(SBG)events,notably

overtheEasterlongweekend.

AforecastforSBGconditionsoverthenext18monthsispresentedbelow. Forecastminimum

demandcontinuestotrendlowerthaninpreviousyears. Overthenext18months,theIESO

expectstheriskofexperiencingSBGconditionswillbemostrelevantoverthesummerperiods.

Figure6.1showsprojectedweeklyminimumdemandagainsttheexpectedlevelofbaseload

generation. Baseloadgenerationassumptionshavebeenupdatedtoincludeexports,thelatest

plannedoutageinformation,andinservicedatesforneworrefurbishedgeneration. The

expectedcontributionfromselfschedulingandintermittentgenerationhasalsobeenupdatedto

reflectthelatestdata.Outputfromcommissioningunitsisexplicitlyexcludedfromthisanalysis

duetouncertaintyandhighlyvariablenatureofcommissioningschedules.

Figure 6.1 Minim um Demand and Baseload Generation

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

06-Jun-10

04-Jul-10

01-Au

14,000

16,000

g-10

29-Aug-10

26-Sep-10

24-Oct-10

21-Nov-10

19-Dec-10

16-Jan-11

13-Feb-11

13-Mar-11

10-Apr-11

08-May-11

05-Jun-11

03-Jul-11

31-Jul-11

28-Aug-11

25-Sep-11

23-Oct-11

20-Nov-11

MW

Minimum Weekl y Demand Basel oad Generation

NotableeventsinvolvingOntariosinterconnectionsoccurredin2009,includinglengthyplanned

outagesontheOntarioNewYorkinterfacethatsignificantlylimitedintertiecapacitytoboth

NewYorkandMichigan. Atthesametime,anew1,250MWtietoQuebecfacilitatedincreased

intertiecapacitytowardstheendoftheyear. Asaresultofthesedevelopments,andinlightof

similarplannedoutagestotheOntarioNewYorkinterfacecurrentlybeingassessedfor



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NovemberandDecember2010,the1,000MWexportassumptionthatwasusedinprevious

Outlooksisbeingrevised.

Goingforward,anominalexportassumptionof1,500MWwillbeappliedasadecrementto

baseloadgenerationunderlimited,ornointerconnectionplannedoutages. Undermore

significantinterconnectionplannedoutages1,suchastheNewYorkPA301andPA302outages

scheduledforNovemberandDecember2010,anexportassumptionof1,200MWwillbeapplied

toreflectthereducedexportcapabilityassociatedwiththeseplannedoutages. Theserevisednet

exportassumptionswerederivedfromanexaminationofhistoricalnetexportdataduring

periodsoflowOntariodemandfrom2008and2009,atvariouslevelsofaggregateexport

capabilityandarealsoreflectiveofexternalmarketsabilitytoabsorbenergyatthattime. In

recognitionofchangingmarketandsurplusbaseloadconditions,andtheirassociatedimpacton

netexportvolumes,theIESOintendstoreviewandreviseasrequiredthenetexport

assumptionsonanannualbasis.

EndofSection

1The 1,200 MW export assumption will be applied when forecast planned outages are expected to limit Ontarios

aggregate export capacity to between 1,400MW and 2,600 MW. For forecast planned outages that further limit export

capacity to below 1,400 MW, an export assumption value of 700 MW will be used. See Appendix C of the 18-Month

Outlook Tables for forecast reduction to major transmission interface limits, including interconnection interfaces.


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Figure 7.2.1 Wind Contribut ions at the Time of Weekday P eak

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

A pr-09 May-09 J un-09 J ul -0 9 A ug -09 Sep-09 Oct -09 N ov -09 Dec -09 J an- 10 F eb -10 Ma r-10

MW

Date

1,200

Actual Hourly Contribut ion

Actual Monthly M edian

Forecast Monthly M edian

Commercially Operable Capacity

Note: Commerciallyoperablecapacitydoesnotincludecommissioningunits. Thereforeactual

hourlycontributionmayexceedcommercialcapability.

Figure 7.2.2 Hydro Contributio ns (Energy and Operating Reserve) at the Time of W eekday Peak

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

Apr-09 M ay-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 N ov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 M ar-10

MWC

ontribution

Date

7,000

Forecast M onth ly Med ian

Actua l Month ly M ed ian

Actua l Hour ly Contr ibut ion



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Figure7.2.3showsimportsintoOntarioatthetimeofweekdaypeak. ThisyearOntario

experiencedasignificantreductionindemand. Lowerdemandsandsurplusconditionscreated

lowerpricesinOntariowhichmadeimportingintotheprovincelessattractivewhichiswhy

importswerelowerthanprevioushistoricvalues.

Figure 7.2.3 Im ports into Ontario at the Time of Week day Peak

0

50 0

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Apr -09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul -09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct -09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10

MW

Date

Actual Monthl y Median

Actual Hourly Imports

Figure7.2.4showstheamountofnetimportsintoOntarioatthetimeofweekdaypeak,

excludingweekendsandholidays.NetInterchangeisthedifferencebetweentotalimportsinto

OntarioandtotalexportsoutofOntario. Ontariowas,onaverage,anetexporterfortheentire

studyperiod. Asstatedabove,thedriverswhichinfluencedlowerimportsalsoincentgreater

tradeoutoftheprovince. Undersurplusbaseloadgenerationconditions,themarketsinfluence

onexportingbecomesasignificantmitigatingfactor. UnfortunatelywhenOntariois

experiencingsurplus,ourneighboursareusuallyalsoexperiencingasurpluscondition,making

exportingdifficult.



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Figure 7.2.4 Net In terchange into Ontario at the Time of Weekday Peak

-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

Apr-09 M ay-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 N ov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10

MW

Date

Negat ive va lue ind icates w hen Ontar io was a net expor ter

Actua l Month ly M ed ianActua l Hour ly Net I mpor ts

7.3 Report on Initiatives

SinceNovember2009,theIESOsresourceschedulingintheneartermtimeframehasbeenbased

ontheaverage,ratherthanthepeak,demandforecastforallhourswheredemanddoesnot

typicallychangedramatically. Thischangeinmethodologyisanattempttoassistinreducing

SBGthroughmoreefficientresourcecommitments.

Centralizedwindforecastingisaninitiativedesignedtoallowforbetterforecastingofwind

productiontoensureamoreaccurateunitcommitmentoccurs. Pilotimplementation isexpected

tocommencebytheendof2010.

7.4 Variation from Previous Year

In2009Ontarioexperiencedasignificantincreaseininstancesofsurplusbaseloadgeneration

conditions. Thetwomajorfactorsthatcontributedtothisvariationare:

Higherhydroelectricproductionthanthepreviousyearasaresultofheavysnowfallandrainfall

Lowerdemandsduetomoderatesummertemperaturesaswellastheeconomicdeclinesofmanyindustrialloads

EndofDocument

IESO 18MonthOutlook_2010may

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