IEOM2011 IEOM Challenges[1]

8/2/2019 IEOM2011 IEOM Challenges[1]

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Ira A.

FULTONSchools of Engineering

Global Challenges in Industrial Engineering andOperations Management for the 21st Century

Ronald G. Askin, Professor and DirectorSchool of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering

Arizona State UniversityTempe, AZ 85287-8809 USA

[email protected]


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School of Computing, Informatics,and Decision Systems Engineering

Kuala Lumpur,January 2011

Overview

On-going global manufacturing and economic activity trends

Where US manufacturing research and activity are headed

What are the implications/opportunities for IEs globally?

Where is IEs future


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Arizona and ASU
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lake_Powell_Above_Wahweap_Marina.jpghttp://engineering.asu.edu/sites/default/files/gallery/IMG_0946.jpg


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Shaping the World

Politicsand

Cultures

Environmentand Nature

Economicsand

Ingenuity


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Manufacturing Trends and Status Today

Global Production/Supply Networks

Transit costs and speeds changing slowly

Raw material availability, labor costs, markets vary globally

Information access is level; education becoming level

Transition from Mechanical/Physical to Electrical/Info Dominance Green for Sustainability (Financial and Environmental)

Health applications are growing markets

Nanomaterials are solutions on the horizon

Manufacturing Creates Wealth!

Services fleetingly facilitate life but limit wage growth due to

standardization, scalability and automation difficulty.


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Globalization!


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www.worldatlas.com

Fab

Intel Wafer Fab and Test/Assembly Facilities

Assembly/Test

Region RevenueAsia/Pacific 51%Americas 20%Europe 19%Japan 10%

Its Markets, Resources and Economics


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WTO: Peace and Prosperity Through Cooperative Commerce

153 Member Countries, 30 Accessions (in process) in 2009

WTO: A system of trading rules and forum for intergovernmental negotiation


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Why is US IE Changing So Much So Fast?

Thomas L. Friedman, Hot, Flat and Crowded

-Level playing field through logistics and global connections (web)

-American expectations for good wages, clean jobs/environment

- High competition outsourcing, off-shoring Opportunity of new science bio, info, nano

Growth of service expenditures (health care, finance)

Dragged along by our engineering counterparts


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But are We Changing?

Of Top 20 Ranked Schools

Industrial and Systems Engineering Industrial and Operations Engineering

Industrial Engineering and Operations Research Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

Management Science and Engineering Industrial Engineering and Management Science

Operations Research and Information Engineering Industrial and Systems Engineering

Industrial and Systems Engineering Industrial and Systems Engineering



Industrial Engineering and Operations Research Industrial and Systems Engineering

Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering Industrial Engineering

Operations Research/Industrial Engineering Industrial, Systems and Operations Engineering

IIE Members vote Down Name Change in 2009


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Industrial Engineering in the USPast and Present

New Markets Outside of Manufacturing

1910 2010

Weve grown out but have we grown up?


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The Scientist/Engineer Today

The Doctor The Civil Engineer

CAT Scan PET Scan

Realtime tracking(Cameras, GPS)

Embedded structuralhealth monitoring/control


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Revolutionary Change in Technology

Moores Law Human

Genome Decoding

n 1990: $3B, 13 yrsn 2009: $350k, 13 weeks

n 2015: $300, 13 min.

Gordon Moore's original graph from 1965


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The IE Today

http://www.strategosinc.com/value_stream_mapping1.htm

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Methods have stagnated.Remaining traditional Manufacturing opportunities in US are limited.


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IEs Improve Integrated Systems

How must faster/better/cheaper can we define, model, andimprove a system today than in 1979?

Have we changed at the same rate as others

over the past 30 years?

While the world became a ubiquitous information,global society, IE found better icons for flowcharts!

Todays systems are complex and integrated. Why arent

we flourishing most in complex environments?


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Where Could/Should We Be?

Virtual Reality Models of Systems miniature Ron sits on thepart and flows through the machine and plant

Virtual Reality Models of datasets with automated coloring,sizing for outliers

Automated Simulation/Optimization Models from CapitalAsset files

Automated model decomposers, data cleaners andpreprocessors

Full data history on shop and order status with real-timeplanning updates customers manage their orders.

Were too Cheap!


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The Prevailing Business Attitude

Phil Knight, Founder of Nike

There is no value in making things any more. The

value is added by careful research, by innovation, andby marketing.

Deputy Director, DARPA 7/19/2010

To innovate we must make.


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World Gross Domestic Product

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008CONS

TANT1990USB

ILLIONS

YEAR

GDP by Region

Africa

Asia

Central America

Europe

North America

South America

World

Data Source: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnlList.asp


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GDPAsia


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GDP per Capita-Global Wealth Distribution

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

1990USDPerCapita

YEAR

GDP / Population

Africa

AsiaCentral/LatinAmericaEurope

North America

World


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GDP/CapitaAsia and US


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GDP Growth Rate: Current GDP/1970 GDP

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

GROWTHRATE

YEAR

GDP Growth Rate by Region

Africa

Asia

CentralAmericaEurope

NorthAmericaSouthAmerica

World

Asia Rising,Europe Falling

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

GROWTHRA

TE

YEAR

Manufacturing Growth Rate byRegion

Africa

Asia

CentralAmerica

Europe

NorthAmerica

SouthAmerica

World


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Export Dependence by Region

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

PERCENTAG

E

YEAR

Total Exports/GDP by Region

Africa

Asia

CentralAmerica

Europe

North America

SouthAmerica

World

Asia growing rapidly


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Export Importance by Country


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Trends in Interdependency

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

PERCENTAG

E

YEAR

Total Imports/GDP by Region

Africa

Asia

Central America

Europe

North America

South America

World


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Import Percentages by Country


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Import Export Growth Rates

0

5

10

15

20

25

197019751980198519901995200020052008G

ROWTHRATE

YEAR

Export Growth Rate by Region

Africa

Asia

CentralAmerica

Europe

NorthAmerica

SouthAmerica

World 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

YEAR

Import Growth Rate by Region

Africa

Asia

CentralAmericaEurope

NorthAmericaSouth

AmericaWorld

Central America Gaining Net SurplusAsia Expanding Activity Rapidly


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Observations

US has room to consume more of the worlds goods

US spends most on services, not products

Central America and Europe highly dependent on trade

US, Japan and South America too insular?

Japan continuing to wane

Growth linked to global trade, particularly for small economies


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Whats the Role and Impact

of Manufacturing?


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Global Manufacturing Growth

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008CONSTANT1990USBILLIONS

YEAR

Manufacturing by Region

Africa

Asia

Central America

Europe

North America

South America

World

Europe, No. Americalosing ground;Asia gaining


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Manufacturing Activity by Country


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Manufacturing Importance by Region

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

Manufacturing/GDP by Region

AfricaAsia

Central America

Europe

North America

South America

World

No./So. America ,Europe losing ground

World relatively constant

AsiaGaining


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Manufacturing Production per Capita

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

1990USDPerCap

ita

YEAR

Manufacturing / Population

Africa

Asia

Central America/LatinAmerica

Europe

North America

World

Surprising relative growthconsistency except Africa


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Manufacturing per Capita by Country


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Population Growth Rates

0

1,000,000,000

2,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

7,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

POULATION

YEAR

Population Data by Year

Africa

Asia

Europe

North America

Latin America /Central America

World

Despite problems, Africais growing fastest


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Population Growth RatesFocus on Asia


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The Rapidly Changing Landscape

Companies brace for end of cheap made-in-China eraBy ELAINE KURTENBACH, AP Business Writer Elaine Kurtenbach, Ap Business Writer Thu Jul 8, 12:57 pm ET

SHANGHAI Factory workers demanding better wages and working conditions arehastening the eventual end of an era of cheap costs that helped make southern

coastal China the world's factory floor. A series of strikes over the past two monthshave been a rude wakeup call for the many foreign companies that depend onChina's low costs to compete overseas, from makers of Christmas trees tomanufacturers of gadgets like the iPad. Where once low-tech factories and scantwages were welcomed in a China eager to escape isolation and poverty, workers arenow demanding a bigger share of the profits. The government, meanwhile, is pushingforeign companies to make investments in areas it believes will create greater wealth

for China, like high technology. shifting production to the inland areas Massiveinvestments in roads, railways and other infrastructure are reducing the isolation ofthe inland cities.

Maybe, but the growing market is still there!
http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/


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US Industry ActivityPercent of GDP*

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1947

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Retail trade

Logistics

Information

Finance, insurance

Health care

* US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Where will these lines go from here?


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US Manufacturing Future

Focus on design (shorter product life cycles, more customized

demands as choices proliferate)

Focus on green manufacturing (sustainability)

Focus on low volume, high precision, high tech products

Focus on developing and using nanomaterial processes

atomic scale layered composites

Focus on renewable energy power sources

Focus on defense industry

High volume only when automated (low volume and product

flexibility relative to labor at least for awhile longer)

World wide Opportunities


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World wide OpportunitiesSuccessful Approaches (Business 101)

Identify competitive advantage (low cost of labor, primary materials)

Identify market needs and means

Ensure adequate infrastructure

Find investorsgovt, banks, parent companies

Focus on a core

automotive parts assembly in Mexico first,

then build up to aerospace parts

Low Cost Assembly originally in Asia (Is Africa the future?)

Global Production Global Wealth Logistics Dominance


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Where Do Manufacturers Build?

Close to Raw Material and Parts Suppliers

Close to Customers

Adequate Labor Supply and Low Labor Rate

Adequate Transportation Network (Air, Rail, Shipping, Roads)

Favorable Community/Tax Situation

Access to Utilities (power, water)

Possible risk mitigation driven facility distribution

Limited cultural/political hurdles

US National Academy of Engineering


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US National Academy of EngineeringGrand Challenges

n Web page: http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/n View video (6 min)

Make solar energy economical less than 1% today but large potential

Provide energy from fusion develop scalable, envir. benign method

Provide access to clean water affordable and available for all

Reverse engineer the brain combining engineering and neuroscience

Advance personalized learningspeeds, styles, content for individual

Develop carbon sequestration methods capture and store excess CO2

Restore and improve urban infrastructurebetter design and materialsfor transportation, water, waste, power, etc. for livable cities

14 Grand Challenges for the 21st Century
http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/


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NAE Grand Challenges cont.

Engineer the tools of scientific discovery blending of engr. & science toexplain nature

Advance health informatics better everyday care and preventing bioattacks/pandemics

Prevent nuclear terror protect society from increasing risks and proliferation

Engineer better medicines body sensing, personalized drugs, deliverymethods

Enhance virtual reality for training, treatment, communication, andentertainment

Manage the nitrogen cycle better fertilization techniques and

recapture/recycle

Secure cyberspace protect essential infrastructure


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IIE Fellows: Grand Challenges for Industrial Engineering

Reengineering Health Care Delivery

Creating a Technology Oriented Culture

Engineering a Sustainable Society

Developing Better Decision Tools

Mitigating and Responding to Disasters

Point of Use Manufacturing

Infrastructure Food Security

Fellows Report:

http://www.iienet2.org/uploadedfiles/IIE/News/Grand%20Challenge%201.pdf

1 Reengineering Healthcare Delivery:


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1. Reengineering Healthcare Delivery:An Integrated Approach

Demographics: Young and poor are fastest growingsegment, U.S. and worldwide

Number of senior citizens growing fast (and babyboomers wont go gently into the night)

Healthcare is largest U.S. industry

Health care inflation rate 3 times overall rate

Woeful under investment in info technology

Excessive waste Medical info and treatment increasingly technology-

enabled

The Problem

C


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1. Reengineering Health Care

Individualcare needed risk analysis, modeling/mininggenomic info, personalized treatment scripts, safety/quality inindividual led treatment

Systemimprovements needed QC, logistics, info technology,provider collaboration hierarchically and vertically, financialsystem and models

Scienceadvances needed treatment protocols, datamining/bioimaging, human sensing

The IE Role

2 C i T h l O i d S i


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2. Creating a Technology Oriented Society

Body of tech knowledge growing rapidly

System size and complexity growing rapidly (U.S.) relatively wealthy life is easy

Many of brightest youth pursue pursue law, business

U.S. youths perform poorly in math/science

The Problem

2 C i T h l O i d S i


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2. Creating a Technology Oriented Society

Get the word out about opportunities and need

Optimize available human resource

Jazz up what we do

The IE Role

3 E i i S t i bl S i t


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3. Engineering a Sustainable Society

U.S. population will double this century

World population will more than double

Over 50% now live in urban areas

Wealth increases ecological footprint

Climate change will change geographic resource availability

The Problem

3 S t i bl S i t


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3. Sustainable Society

Need sustainable transportation systems

Efficient/effective governmental services judicial,social security, police/fire

Designing scalable urban environments Designing efficient community structures connecting

urban (production, consumption) to rural (raw materials)

The IE Role

4 D l B tt D i i M ki T l


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4. Develop Better Decision Making Tools

The Problem

Modeled entities are growing in size

Models are expensive to build, hard to sell

Models are limited in scope, life-span

Organizations have vertical and horizontalboundaries (multiple constituencies)

4 Better Decision Making Tools


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4. Better Decision Making Tools

Better, more fully deployed, and relevant sensors

Models to fuse, validate and evaluate data/information

Improved models of human behavior

Enrich Rational models with subjective behavior

Risk analysis and interaction models of tightly coupled massivetechnology-oriented systems and their failure modes/scenarios

Rapid modeling and computational tools

Scalable, maintainable, rapidly developable models More understandable models/More valid models

Human embedded modeling paradigms and tools (immersionand visualization)

The IE Role

5 Mitigating and Responding to Disaster


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5. Mitigating and Responding to Disaster

Natural and man-made disasters are happening morefrequently

Societal expectation is for safer lives, quicker emergencycare

Larger urban regions, tightly-coupled specialized lives, andclimate change lead to more susceptible systems and larger

scale impacts

The Problem

5 Mitigating Disaster


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5. Mitigating Disaster

Optimal deployment of detection technologies (natural andcompetitive games)

Optimization of emergency response resource positioningand deployment

Managing transition from search to rescue to recovery andcare

Integrated communications, logistics, and decision making

Real-time decision making with various info levels

(resilient planning and control) Resilient system(s) design

Optimal deployment and use of sensing technology andrisk assessment models

The IE Role

6 Point of Use Manufacturing


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6. Point of Use Manufacturing

Demand for Customized Products

Demand for Sustainable Manufacturing/Distribution

The Problem

6 Point of Use Manufacturing


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6. Point of Use Manufacturing

Distributed (home) or neighborhood manufacturing

New process development for solid free form fabrication

Development of nano and mega technology for point ofuse production

Design of infrastructure for material delivery, user-drivendesign

Its Not Easy Being Green

The IE Role

7 Infrastructure Construction


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7. Infrastructure Construction

Time to revolutionize infrastructure construction(progress has lagged)

Construction inefficient and quality variable

The Problem

7 Infrastructure Construction


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7. Infrastructure Construction

Take advantage of advances in computing, robotics,materials, and management science to reduce cost, time,injuries, environmental impact

Design smarter structures

Determine optimal investments for infrastructure $

Allow maintainable, culturally appropriate, ergonomically safeconstruction methods and system designs

Why Cant we manufacture structures in factories for field

assembly with higher quality and productivity?

The IE Role

8 Safe Available Affordable Food & Water


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8. Safe, Available, Affordable Food & Water

Population growth, changing weather patterns, political strife,man-made biohazards, natural biohazards threaten worldwide

Current cultivation practices not sustainable and use non-

renewable resources Profits vs. Politics vs. Social Good

Standard procedures, testing and traceability needed across foodsupply chain

Procedures for local food production and security needed

The Problem

8 Safe Available Food and Water


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8. Safe, Available Food and Water

Develop traceable supply and distribution networks (RFID,imaging, procedures, etc.)

Design and deploy maintainable solutions

Perhaps assist in governmental planning for development

The IE Role

What Constitutes IE?


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What Constitutes IE?

Manufacturing planning (processplanning, tooling design/maintenance)

Production operations (planning,scheduling, quality assurance, materialhandling)

Engineering management (engineeringeconomics, product services, facilitiesdesign/mgmt., distribution/logistics)

System modeling (informationsystems/flow, modeling and simulation)

Ergonomics/Human Factors

IE TodayIE Tomorrow

Additions?

Deletions?

Industrial Engineer 21st Century


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Industrial Engineer 21st Century

We are theInformation

Preparer

We are the DataHunter/Gatherer

Conclusions


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Conclusions

We are needed but we must Wander or Wither

We must Revolutionize on a Bigger, Broader, FasterScale

We must integrate our strengths humans, math

models, computing, big picture/multiobjective comfortlevel, efficiency mindset

The Big Picture


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The Big Picture


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Questions/Comments/Complaints?

Ron Askin

School of Computing, Informatics, and

Decision Systems Engineering

[email protected]

Futurizing the BSIE Curriculum


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Futurizing the BSIE Curriculum

Greater emphasis on global cultures Learning to serve on multidisciplinary, multicultural, politically

pressured teams Must bring unique value to the team (Systems thinking, Project

Management, Multiobjective Dec. Making, Dealing with Complexity &Uncertainty)

Dynamic, Nonlinear, Continuous Large-Scale Modeling (Not justDiscrete Event Simulation and Desk Top LP)

Understanding Human Behavior and Preferences (Beyond HF) Risk Management and Mitigation as an integral activity Broader Science Knowledge (Biology, Ecology) Sophisticated Information Technology Users (Sensor Capability &

Network Design; Data Information Decision Systems) Systems Modeling of Urban Environments, Infrastructure Broader Mindset of Major Societal Impact and Socio-Technical

Problem Solving (not just making widgets)

Whats Your Ten?

IEOM2011 IEOM Challenges[1]

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