IDTechEx Research: Mild Hybrid 48V Vehicles

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Mild Hybrid 48V Vehicles 2016-2031

Dr Peter Harrop / www.IDTechEx.com / [email protected]

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2016 sees a near consensus that something not yet in volume production will make a major contribution to meeting the planned tighter emissions regulations for on-road vehicles worldwide. In the decade 2016-2026 and maybe to 2031, it may be in more cars than strong hybrid and pure electric cars combined. Volume sales begin in 2017. It is the 48V mild hybrid powertrain, the lowest cost, easiest way to meet 2025 and 2030 emissions laws – you just adapt an existing ICE powertrain. In its most advanced form it promises brief pure electric drive for smooth and silent take-off, parking, creeping and sailing (active coasting). That meets the definition of an electric vehicle.

Audi 48V demo


WHAT IS IT? 48V battery added to existing 12V (car, van) or 24V (truck, bus) battery. It evolves to be larger and eventually take over completely. Torque assist 48V reversible electric machine in place of alternator and/or in other parts of drivetrain. Together, these permit incremental electrification and adding new electric devices for better regeneration and performance - devices that a conventional powertrain cannot add because current and storage required is too much.

Why 48V “mild hybrid” architecture for conventional internal combustion engine vehicle?


48V mild hybrid vehicles are the missing transitional technology in the evolution of land vehicles in particular, mostly on-road

Conventional internal combustion engine system typically 12V. LOSER Increasingly has some enhanced energy storage for stop-start – switching off when vehicle stops even briefly but still cannot meet 2025/2030 emissions laws unless vehicle is small.

LOSER 12V mild hybrid Poor regen braking No pure electric mode Little capability for electrification of consumers or accepting new inputs

WINNER The missing transitional product 48V mild hybrid has four times the energy storage and power handling added to 12V system and potentially replacing it. Good regen. Braking. Lower emissions up to 20% Better rider experience Lower total cost of ownership, lower up-front cost than strong hybrid but higher up-front cost than conventional

LOSER: Full hybrid not plug-in WINNER Full hybrid plug-in in future Lower emissions up to 80% Better rider experience Lower total cost of ownership Much higher cost

WINNER Pure electric No emissions Best rider experience Potentially lowest cost of ownership Much higher cost for now.


1. Replace the engine with a smaller downspeeded one 2. Replace the alternator with a reversing electric

machine that can boost the engine when needed (“torque assist”) and, when integrated not belt driven, briefly power the car on its own and charge the two batteries. This may be in the engine, transmission or axle. Jargon “Boost Recuperation Machine”/ “Belt Drive Starter Generator BSG”. Integrated = “ISG”.

3. Two way DC DC converter lets the above machine charge on demand both the existing 12V battery and an added 48V battery

4. Add a large 48V battery such as a lithium-ion battery that has higher energy density and is a bit bigger than the existing lead acid battery but lighter. It can power the car along on its own for brief intervals

RESULT Car accepts, provides and stores four times as much electricity to power devices that further reduce emissions and improve performance and comfort. It also becomes possible to harvest more energy from inside and outside the car and handle that new electricity created from movement, sun, heat etc., including surges.

How to make a 48V mild hybrid in latest form for a car Add a high capacity high power density 48V battery eg Li-ion or advanced lead-acid

For now, keep the 12V PbA battery for

safety critical operations and

ones too expensive to

convert

2 way DC-DC inverter


Not just cars! Source: Green Car Congress


This report primarily concerns mild hybrid vehicles by land, water and air. Almost all mild hybrids are being standardised on 48V By far the biggest market these will be for on-road vehicles, notably cars and trucks but there will be off-road and marine applications Under accepted definitions, these are not electric vehicles because they do not have electric motors driving the wheels or propellers directly for some or all of the time. Mild hybrids fill the gap in cost, performance and emissions between conventional internal combustion vehicles and full hybrid vehicles. All leading manufacturers of conventional cars are working on 48V mild hybrid versions primarily because they see it as the best way of meeting more onerous emissions legislation in the 2025-2030 timeframe. Automotive companies prioritise 48V mild hybrid very differently as exemplified below. Powertrain electrification priorities of automotive companies for the next ten years

Best solutions for market needs 2016-2030

Prioritising 48V mild hybrid

Prioritising full hybrid and pure electric but doing many 48V mild hybrid

Prioritising full hybrid and pure electric and doing few 48V mild hybrid

Prioritising pure electric and full hybrid and nothing else

Doing pure electric and nothing else

Volkswagen GM Fiat Chrysler Mercedes Suzuki Volvo Trucks

Hyundai Toyota Proton Mazda Honda Ford

BMW Nissan Yutong Geely CSR Times BAIC

BYD

Tesla Terra Motors Pihsiang Zero Motorcycles Polaris Industries Charlatte


Electric cars (strong hybrid and pure electric cars) vs 48V mild hybrid and conventional cars: number K 2014-2031 48V mild hybrid never takes 100% of the conventional car market because some small cars will meet emissions laws without it and some countries will have loosely enforced legislation


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Mild Hybrid 48V Vehicles 2016-2031

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IDTechEx Research: Mild Hybrid 48V Vehicles

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