ICREW PA4: regression modelling for bathing water prediction, and

development of advanced decision support systems

ICREW Modelling Workshop

Jonathan Williams (Marinetech South)

Mitch Hockley (BMT)

Team Representatives

Dr Jonathan Williams• jonathan@marinetech.co.uk

Dr Mitch Hockley• mitch.hockley@bmtcordah.com

Development Trajectory

i-MARQ project (2002-2005)• EU RTD project funded under IST

prog.

ICReW PA4 Pilot (2004-2006)• Part of Interreg IIIB project

S@NY project (2006-2009)?• Integrated Project proposed to IST

Risk Management call, Sept 05

Why was i-MARQ needed?

“Our coastal zones are of strategic importance to all Europeans,…[but] are facing serious problems of habitat destruction, water contamination, coastal erosion and resource depletion.”

COM/2000/547 to European Parliament

i-MARQ developed water quality management tools needed to help address this challenge

FME

i-MARQ Decision Support

Data Management

Data Management

Data Fusion

Data Fusion

Ecosystem Models

Ecosystem Models

VisualisationVisualisation

Decision

i-MARQ Challenges

Need to forecast water quality• Data mostly not real-time

Non-homogeneous data resource• Spatially rich, temporally sparse• Temporally rich, spatially sparse• Poor data quality for some key parameters

Lagrangian frame• Pollution features move with tides &

currents• Asynchronous observations

System Schematic

Provider server

Internet &

messaging

Internet &

messaging

Sensors

Sensors

Meta IS

FME server

GIS server

UserFME GIS

Provider server

WWW portals

WWW portals

User

Updated FME nowcast for 22nd June 16:00(available 20 minutes after data entry)

Updated +12hrs forecast for 22nd June 16:00

Updated +24hrs forecast for 22nd June 16:00

ICReW Context of Project

One pilot action with larger Interreg project, ICReW• Development of Methods for Prediction

of Bathing Water Quality

Managed by MTS, system development by BMT Cordah

Real application of key technologies:• Temporal fusion from i-MARQ• Spatial distribution from BMT models

Project Objectives

Develop a system which can:• Forecast the risk of adverse water

quality in recreational waters• Indicate the profile & trajectory of

contaminated waters

Pilot the system:• Compare forecasts against actual

observations (2005)

Insert BMT slides here

S@NY Proposal

Generic framework for:• Sensor networks (standardised interfaces)• Data management• Decision support systems

Will allow cost-effective building of decision support systems and their driving data resources:• Marine – beach & coastal zone management etc• Atmospheric – urban air quality etc

Plug & play approach with specialist fusion modules