ICMSouthWest_Jan_Mar_2015

Vote In 2010RegionGeneral ElectionVoting IntentionSocial ClassAgeGenderSouthLibLibFe-WestDemLabConOtherUKIPDemLabConDEC2C1AB65+35-6425-3418-24maleMaleTotal

2663335831921183362742758107791432519144122266Unweighted base

280383172242022355664499374721412840152128280Weighted base

16027255914131021384627444358871339169160Certain to vote (10)57%70%81%82%58%64%48%60%67%72%55%48%59%81%62%46%7%60%54%57%

286323562535146411211121628(9)10%15%11%3%12%22%27%7%8%5%10%15%8%6%8%7%27%8%12%10%

214-6-1375-2145-143412921(8)7%9%-8%-3%12%21%10%-4%15%7%-10%12%10%8%7%7%

1011321-233-25-5233710(7)4%2%3%4%9%5%-6%6%5%-2%7%-3%8%8%2%6%4%

8-21---12-33212-5358(6)3%-6%1%---2%3%-6%3%3%1%2%-12%2%4%3%

17--1511132211224479817(5)6%--1%20%4%4%4%6%3%4%12%3%3%3%14%18%6%6%6%

1--1-1---1--1-1--111(4)*--1%-3%---1%--1%-1%--***

41----2--12-1-2-24-4(3)1%3%----10%--2%4%-1%-1%-5%3%-1%

4--------1-1113--314(2)1%--------1%-1%2%1%2%--2%*1%

27--------784761245141327Certain not to vote (1)10%--------11%16%5%10%8%9%14%13%9%10%10%

8.149.379.599.548.589.238.639.059.138.327.588.288.178.958.347.566.398.148.148.14Mean

2.941.401.051.142.051.482.181.391.513.163.482.442.952.652.883.172.813.002.882.94Standard deviation

0.180.240.180.130.470.320.510.240.190.370.670.320.290.300.240.630.640.250.260.18Standard error

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Opinion Poll - South WestCATI Fieldwork : January-March 2015

Absolutes/col percents

Table 1Q.A Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. I would like toknow how certain it is that you would actually vote in a general election?Base: All respondents

Prepared on behalf of The Guardian by ICMUnlimited - Confidential

Constituency categorySafe

SafeLabourConser(i.e.

AllvativeLabLab-(i.e.heldConLabConConANDheldheld

marginheld>1Lab>10LD-ANDANDals5.1%,.1%,heldCON


2663335831921183362742758107791432519144122266Unweighted base

280383172242022355664499374721412840152128280Weighted base

562340----561481222212682263156Conservative20%6%9%55%----100%22%17%13%30%29%18%29%4%17%24%20%

355191---35-10714562433171835Labour12%12%63%1%---100%-15%13%15%7%8%17%10%7%11%14%12%

221011--22--529675-1113922Liberal Democrat/8%25%5%1%--100%--8%4%10%8%9%3%-27%8%7%8%Liberal

1-1-1----1---1---1-1Scottish National*-2%-3%----1%---1%---*-*Party/ SNP

--------------------Plaid Cymru--------------------

244-224----2-1661132718624Green Party8%10%-2%97%----3%-17%8%2%10%6%18%12%5%8%

20328-20---3656781441620UK Independence Party7%7%7%10%-100%---5%12%6%8%9%6%5%10%3%12%7%(UKIP)

--------------------Other--------------------

27--------784761245141327Will not vote10%--------11%16%5%10%8%9%14%13%9%10%10%

7314320-----181423191838107462773Don't know26%36%11%27%-----29%28%24%25%25%27%37%18%30%21%26%

23112-----44104715-114923Refused8%3%3%3%-----7%9%11%6%9%11%-3%9%7%8%

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Table 2Q.B The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were ageneral election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?Base: All respondents



153213059192118336243123464478013137677153Unweighted base

157242650242022355634235644427514267879157Weighted base

562340----561481222212682263156Conservative36%11%11%79%----100%41%37%21%50%50%34%58%6%33%39%36%

355191---35-10714562433171835Labour22%20%73%2%---100%-28%29%25%11%13%32%20%10%22%22%22%

221011--22--529675-1113922Liberal Democrat/14%42%5%1%--100%--15%9%16%13%16%6%-41%16%12%14%Liberal

1-1-1----1---1---1-1Scottish National*-3%-3%----2%---2%---1%-*Party/ SNP

244-224----2-1661132718624Green Party15%17%-3%97%----5%-29%13%3%18%12%28%23%7%15%


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Table 3Q.B The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were ageneral election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?Base: All respondents expressing an intention to vote



1312029571617142855409265543721066665131Unweighted base

126222548181716284831184137386611126265126Weighted base

482338----481371018172362222648Conservative38%10%10%79%----100%41%38%24%50%46%35%53%12%35%40%38%

285181---28-959561921141428Labour22%21%74%2%---100%-28%30%22%12%15%29%19%7%22%22%22%

16911--16--5*6474-59716Liberal Democrat/12%41%6%1%--100%--17%1%14%12%17%6%-39%14%10%12%Liberal

1-1-1----1---1---1-1Scottish National1%-3%-4%----2%---2%---1%-1%Party/ SNP

184-218----2-1151132212518Green Party14%17%-3%96%----5%-27%14%4%19%16%16%20%8%14%


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Table 4Q.B The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were ageneral election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?Base: All respondents expressing an intention to vote (Turnout Weighted)


Q.C/D Voting in May 6th 2010 General ElectionBritishUKScottishLiberal

NationalIndependenceNationalDemocrat/Conser-Don't knowRefusedDid not voteOthersParty (BNP)Party (UKIP)Green PartyPlaid CymruParty/SNPLiberalLabourvativeTotal

1118172-65--313479203Unweighted base

1319231-84--362969201Weighted base

--4--1---233848Conservative--16%--18%---6%9%55%24%

--4------518128Labour--16%------13%63%1%14%

1-3------91116Liberal Democrat/9%-14%------26%5%1%8%Liberal

----------1-1Scottish National----------2%-*Party/ SNP

5-21--4--4-218Green Party37%-11%100%--100%--11%-2%9%

--1--4---22717UK Independence Party--6%--56%---7%7%10%9%(UKIP)

756--2---1231955Don't know54%27%28%--26%---34%11%28%27%

-142------11220Refused-73%8%------3%3%3%10%

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Table 5Q.B The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were ageneral election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?Base: All respondents (Turnout Weighted)



2663335831921183362742758107791432519144122266Unweighted base

274303773242020375763489172701392838146128274Weighted base

73--732811402111172425409-314373Conservative27%--100%7%38%3%2%72%34%22%19%34%36%29%31%-21%33%27%

37-37-13224411711892432172137Labour14%-100%-3%13%9%63%6%17%14%13%12%12%17%11%5%11%16%14%

3030--328421011010101622201030Liberal Democrat/11%100%--13%10%39%10%3%15%2%11%13%15%12%6%5%14%8%11%Liberal

--------------------Scottish National--------------------Party/SNP

--------------------Plaid Cymru--------------------

6---5----2-31231-336Green Party2%---20%----3%-3%1%2%2%4%-2%2%2%

9----5--113231414369UK Independence Party3%----25%--2%2%7%2%4%1%3%3%11%2%5%3%(UKIP)

--------------------British National Party--------------------(BNP)

1---1------1*-*1--11Others*---5%------1%1%-*3%--1%*

84---83899131933191136730463884Did not vote31%---32%14%43%25%16%21%39%36%26%16%26%25%79%31%30%31%

19--------36737103-16319Refused7%--------5%12%8%4%9%7%9%-11%3%7%

14---5-1--2264562-11314Don't know5%---19%-6%--3%4%6%6%8%4%7%-7%2%5%

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Table 6Q.C/D Voting in May 6th 2010 General ElectionBase: All respondents



2663335831921183362742758107791432519144122266Unweighted base

280383172242022355664499374721412840152128280Weighted base

Gender

128131742616918313025383531631419-128128Male46%33%55%58%24%78%41%51%55%46%52%41%47%43%45%51%49%-100%46%

1522614301941317263423553941771320152-152Female54%67%45%42%76%22%59%49%45%54%48%59%53%57%55%49%51%100%-54%

Age

4032-74113228244---4020194018-24 (21)14%7%5%-30%21%49%8%3%4%17%26%6%---100%13%15%14%

2822821-388479--28-13142825-34 (29.5)10%6%8%12%7%7%-8%14%12%8%8%12%--100%-9%11%10%

5671011912912352324-56--28285635-44 (39.5)20%19%32%15%36%4%9%25%22%4%11%25%33%-40%--18%22%20%

44741324185881414-44--30144445-54 (49.5)16%19%15%18%7%19%5%24%9%13%16%15%19%-31%--20%11%16%

416516332786141011-41--19214155-64 (59.5)15%15%17%22%11%16%7%19%14%9%28%11%15%-29%--13%17%15%

7213725277621379151172---41317265+ (70)26%34%23%34%9%33%30%16%37%58%19%16%15%100%---27%24%26%

48.2253.0449.7054.8738.9450.3241.6248.5452.7858.3548.5542.3346.6370.0048.4329.5021.0048.8847.4448.22Average age

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Table 7ClassificationBase: All respondents



280383172242022355664499374721412840152128280Weighted base

Social Grade

7412724666522---74115094393574AB26%32%22%33%24%29%25%14%39%---100%15%35%31%11%26%27%26%

931391716591412--93-1547724553893C133%33%30%23%67%27%41%40%21%--100%-20%34%26%61%36%30%33%

491510-6278-49--92748232549C217%3%18%14%-29%10%19%15%-100%--13%19%15%21%15%20%17%

6412921235101464---371782343064DE23%32%29%29%9%15%24%28%25%100%---52%12%28%6%23%23%23%

Region

280383172242022355664499374721412840152128280Wales & South West100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%

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280383172242022355664499374721412840152128280Weighted base

Working status

1131311271012215201027373927818144370113Full-time40%33%38%38%41%57%8%43%35%15%55%39%53%3%55%67%35%28%54%40%

40551041478312101512839281240Part-time14%13%17%14%18%7%19%19%14%4%24%11%21%2%20%9%22%18%10%14%

183251-32542102-114314418Not working but seeking6%7%5%7%5%-14%4%9%7%4%11%2%-8%14%8%9%3%6%work or temporarily

unemployed/sick

8-214-12-3-41-8--718Not working/not seeking3%-6%2%16%-4%5%-5%-4%1%-6%--5%1%3%work

761572847771939718126610--463076Retired27%38%24%39%15%33%33%20%34%61%15%19%16%92%7%--30%24%27%

1732---5-32-131-4-1310717Student6%7%5%---21%-5%4%-14%2%-3%-32%6%5%6%

81211*-3231232231448Refused3%2%5%1%4%2%-8%3%4%2%2%4%3%1%10%3%3%3%3%

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280383172242022355664499374721412840152128280Weighted base

Tenure

9714543391043034212122523349455297Own outright35%37%17%60%11%46%44%12%54%52%43%22%30%73%23%13%22%30%41%35%

96131120114514189173436470158593796Own with a mortgage34%33%37%28%44%21%21%40%32%14%34%37%49%6%50%53%20%39%29%34%

252515--7-5713-3121917825Council9%4%15%2%20%--19%-8%15%14%-4%9%3%23%11%6%9%

12134141216232661-7512Housing Assoc.4%3%9%5%4%21%3%6%1%9%4%3%2%8%4%2%-5%4%4%

348532255571188317510151934Rented from someone12%21%17%4%8%10%24%15%10%11%2%20%11%4%12%19%24%10%15%12%else

141213*232314643348614Refused5%2%5%1%13%2%8%8%3%5%2%4%8%5%2%10%11%5%4%5%

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280383172242022355664499374721412840152128280Weighted base

Number of cars

407122724122154164111739231740None14%18%40%2%27%11%19%33%4%23%9%17%6%16%12%10%23%15%13%14%

117189388109132635173728454711136354117142%46%28%53%33%50%41%39%47%55%36%40%38%63%34%40%34%42%42%42%

971292676592382233341464128524597235%31%29%36%27%28%21%25%41%13%45%35%46%20%45%43%19%34%35%35%

26217324156588113291412263+9%5%3%9%13%11%19%2%9%9%10%8%11%2%9%7%24%9%9%9%

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ICMSouthWest_Jan_Mar_2015

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