H. A. Tanaka, on behalf of the ICFA Neutrino Panel (5 July 2016)

ICFA Neutrino Panel: Roadmap discussion document

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http://icfa.fnal.gov/panels/neutrino_panel/

Roadmap goals• Vibrant programme must:

– Have discovery potential & deliver critical measurements in the short and medium term: • Present and next-generation experiments • Implies parallel theory and phenomenology

programmes

– Develop the capabilities required to out-perform the present and next-generation experiments: • Implies detector and accelerator R&D programmes

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Discussion document• Documents: – Approved objectives for experiments in operation – Approval, construction/exploitation timeline for

experiments under consideration – Proposed timeline for experiments not yet under

consideration

• Evaluation: – Evolution of precision of SvM mixing parameters

• Panel derived interim: – Branch points based on evolution of precision – Recommendations on development of programme

4http://icfa.fnal.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016-05-07-nuPanel-roadmap-Final.pdf

Roadmap next steps• Consultation (started) – 3rd International Meeting on Large Neutrino

Infrastructures; KEK, 30-31 May 2016 – ECFA; LNGS, 30 June 2016 – Neutrino 2016; London, 4-9 July 2016

• Finalise roadmap through autumn 2016 – Propose:

• Deliver final roadmap document at Feb17 ICFA meeting

• We seek your input on the document! – Please provide comments by – email: icfa-neutrino-panel@fnal.gov – through panel members.

– Please respond by 15 October, 2016 5

BACKUPICFA nuPanel: roadmap discussion document

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Goals and contents

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Contents• Principal sections: – Accelerator-based long-baseline oscillation

programme – [Light] Sterile neutrino searches at accelerators – Supporting programme – Interim conclusions and recommendations

• For context, sections on: – Measurements using neutrinos from reactors and

sources – Non-terrestrial source experiments – Non-oscillation programme

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Census

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Accelerator-based neutrino community• Complete, consistent census unavailable

• Panel assembled partial information: – Europe: • ECFA census of European particle-physics community

2009 – The Americas: • Number of researchers involved in FNAL-based

neutrino experiments • Canadian survey of particle-physics community

prepared during 2015 long-range planning exercise – Asia: • Asian panel members conducted an ad hoc “mini

survey” of the accelerator-based neutrino community10

Accelerator-based neutrino community• Asia:

• Europe, 2009 ECFA survey: – Of particle physics community:

• 10% (1000) involved in neutrino experiments;

• Of these, 40% (400) involved in accelerator-based programme

• Americas: – Canada, 2015 survey:

• 105 involved in neutrino expts • 35 involved in accelerator-based

programme

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Neutrino conference

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Global accelerator-neutrino community census• Partial/anecdotal evidence of growth in community

– Needed to deliver planned/proposed programme • Accurate, up-to-date and consistent census

– Valuable in planning the development of programme

• Census – Propose to execute through simple questionnaire:

• Adopted format similar to recent ECFA & ApPEC surveys – Well trodden, successful path

• Panel recommendation, endorsed by ICFA – Seek to gather necessary data as part of stakeholder

consultation – In Europe, ECFA is “natural partner” in this exersise

• Discussion initiated with P. Eerola and C. Alexa13

Interim recommendations

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Interim recommendations: headlines

• Overall: – Finalise roadmap after seeking feedback from:

• Peers • Stakeholders

– In Europe, ECFA natural stakeholder body

– Complete census of accelerator-based community

• Decision point: – ~2020:

• Progress in sterile-neutrino search and neutrino-nucleus scattering programmes as well as the development of the LBNF/DUNE and J-PARC/Hyper-K programmes will be such that it will be timely to decide: – On the future direction of the sterile-neutrino-search and neutrino-

nucleus-scatering programmes

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Interim recommendations: headlines• Long-baseline oscillation programme:

– Full exploitation of present generation of experiments to maximise discovery potential and return on investment

– Complementarity of DUNE and Hyper-K such that both programmes should be pursued through the established approval and funding processes

– The timeliness of the ESSnuSB should be considered in the light of the likely timescales of DUNE and, if approved, Hyper-K

– ICFA should encourage a process for a long-term accelerator/detector R&D programme aimed at the post-DUNE/Hyper-K era: • Requires sustained activity in neutrino and nuclear theory and

phenomenology

– Promote cooperation through “Large Neutrino Infrastructure” meetings

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Interim recommendations: headlines• Sterile-neutrino searches at accelerators: – Full exploitation of present generation of

experiments, including Fermilab SBN Programme, to maximise sensitivity

– Evaluate the sensitivity, cost, technical readiness and relative strength of the proposed next-generation experiments (IsoDAR and nuSTORM) in time for the decision point in ~2020

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Interim recommendations: headlines• Supporting programme:

– ICFA should encourage timely consideration of the development of the hadro-production measurement programme

– The near detector programme at LBNF/DUNE and J-PARC/Hyper-K should be pursued energetically

– ICFA should encourage and promote a sustained effort towards reliable and precise calculations of neutrino-nucleus scattering processes

– Evaluate next-generation neutrino-scattering experiments (for example nuSTORM) in time for the decision point in ~2020

– Complete the present detector R&D programme and make provision for an appropriately-resourced detector-development programme over the lifetime of the next-generation experiments

– Promote opportunities for international cooperation/collabration in the development of MW-class neutrino beams

– Complete the critical demonstration of ionization cooling (MICE) and consider the R&D programme required beyond MICE

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CONCLUSIONICFA nuPanel: roadmap discussion document

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Experiment

Americas Asia European TotalT2K 16 11 32 59NOvA 24 9 8 41DUNE 78 22 48 149*Hyper-K 23 23 24 70Neutrino!Factory 15 7 23 45Daedalus 26 4 7 37ESSnuSB 1 1 12 14* !Africa;!Madagascar

CollaborationInstitutes

Status

RunningRunningIn!preparationUnder!reviewFuture!opportunityFuture!opportunityFuture!opportunity

Accelerator-based LBL nu-oscillation programme

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Synergy and complementarity• Running experiments: – T2K & NOvA:

• Complementary: baseline, technology, beam • Synergy: enhanced discovery potential in combination

• Going forward: – DUNE & Hyper-K:

• Yasuda-san: Complementary approaches, synergy in measurement

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On the complementarity of Hyper-K and LBNF ICFA Neutrino Panel; arXiv:1501.0391

Accelerator-based LBL nu-oscillation programme

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Accelerator-based LBL nu-oscillation programme

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Experiment

Americas Asia European TotalMINOS+ 21 0 6 27MicroBooNE 22 0 6 28SBND 21 0 9 30ICARUS 6 0 15 21JSNS2 6 5 0 11

CollaborationInstitutes

Status

RunningRunningIn!preparationIn!preparationUnder!review

IsoDAR 5 1 5 11nuSTORM 14 2 20 36

Future!opportunityFuture!opportunity

Sterile-neutrino searches at accelerators

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Sterile-neutrino searches at accelerators

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Experiment

Americas Asia European TotalNA61/SHINE 4 1 25 30MINERvA 18 0 2 20MINERvA-CAPTAIN 32 0 0 32MicroBooNE 22 0 6 28SBND 21 0 9 30NOvA!ND!(NOvA) 24 9 8 41ND280!(T2K) 16 11 32 59ANNIE 8 0 2 10nuSTORM 14 2 20 36WAGASCI 0 5 3 8ProtoDUNE!DP!(DUNE) 78 22 48 149*WA104/ ICARUS 1 0 15 16ProtoDUNE!SP!(DUNE) 78 22 48 149*CHIPS 12 0 1 13NuPRISM 9 9 7 25TITUS!(Hyper-K) 23 23 24 70MICE 10 2 18 30RaDIATE 8 4 12

CollaborationInstitutes

Status

RunningRunningIn!preparationRunningIn!preparationRunningRunningIn!preparationFuture!opportunityIn!preparationIn!preparationIn!preparationIn!preparationFuture!opportunityFuture!opportunityFuture!opportunityRunningRunning

Supporting programme

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++

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+ Collaboration lists taken from “parent” collaboration.

Supporting programme

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Supporting programme

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Supporting programme

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Roadmap next steps• Consultation; starts today: –With collaborations

• Collaborations have checked text –With neutrino and particle-physics community;

• Mechanism to be defined –With stakeholders:

• Laboratories and funding agencies

• Census: – Propose to execute through simple questionnaire:

• Adopt format similar to recent ECFA & ApPEC surveys – Well trodden, successful path

– Data-gathering mechanism, to be defined31

Roadmap next steps• Formal opportunities for presentation/

feedback: – Neutrino 2016:

• London, 4—9 July 2016

• Finalise roadmap through autumn 2016: – Propose:

• Deliver final roadmap document at Feb17 ICFA meeting

• Beyond the ICFA Neutrino Panel: – How to maintain and enhance what has been done? – How to recognise breadth of field?

• Neutrino Panel mandate is accelerator-based programme32

Census• Propose to execute through simple questionnaire: – Adopt format similar to recent ECFA & ApPEC surveys

• Well trodden, successful path

• Proposed timetable: – 09Jul16: finalise questionnaire (Neutrino ’16) – 10Aug16: revise after stakeholder feedback (ICHEP

’16) – Mid Sep16: launch data gathering –Wk 1 Nov16: receive data form stakeholders –Wk 1 Dec16: circulate digest of results to stakeholders – End Dec16: finalise census section of roadmap doc

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