IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people...
Transcript of IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people...
MacroObjectives:Unemployment
IBEconomicsSection2.3:LowUnemployment
Unemployment
Theunemployedarethosepeopleable,availableandwillingtoworkbutcannotfindajobdespiteanactivesearchforwork
• Unemploymentmeansthatscarcehumanresourcesarenotbeingusedtoproducethegoodsandservicesthathelptomeetpeople’schangingneedsandwants
• Persistentlyhighunemploymentcanhavedamagingscarringconsequencesforaneconomycausingeconomicandsocialcosts
• Problemscausedbyunemploymentareoftendeep-rootedinlocalandregionalcommunitiesandwithinparticulargroupsofsociety– forexampleintheUK,morethanoneinsixyoungpeopleareoutofworkandnearlyfortypercentofunemployedpeoplehavebeenoutofworkforatleastayear
• Unemployment intheUKisfallingbutthereareperhapslimitstohowfarthejoblessratecandropwithoutaffectingothermacroeconomicaims.
MeasuringUnemployment– SomeKeyTerms
Claimant Count(JSA) Thenumber ofpeopleofficiallyclaimingunemployment-relatedbenefits– mustbeactively seekingwork
LabourForceSurvey(LFS) Allthoseactivelyseekingandavailableforwork,whetherornottheyareclaimingbenefit
Long-Termunemployed People unemployed foratleastoneyear
Labourforce Thenumber ofpeopleofworkingagewhoare able,availableandwillingtowork
Fullemployment Whenthereenoughunfilled jobvacanciesforalltheunemployed totakework
Discouragedworkers Peopleoutofworkforalong timewhomaygiveuponjobsearchandeffectively leavethelabourmarket
Economicallyinactive Thosewhoareofworkingagebutareneitherinworknoractivelyseekingpaidwork
Employmentrate Thepercentageofthepopulation ofworkingageinfull-timeorpart-timepaidwork
Unemploymentrate Percentageoftheeconomicallyactivepopulation whoareunemployed
9.9%
7.1%
5.2% 5.4% 5.4%4.8%
6.4%
4.2%
3.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
France India UnitedStates
UnitedKingdom
Russia Germany Brazil China Japan
Unem
ploymentrate
Unemploymentinselectedcountriesin2015Source:IMF
UnemploymentinselectedworldregionsSource:IMF
12.5%
11%
7.5%
7.8%
7.7%
6.8%
5.9%
4.8%
4.3%
3.9%
12.5%
11%
7.8%
7.7%
7.7%
6.6%
5.9%
4.6%
4.3%
3.9%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%
NorthAfrica
MiddleEast
DevelopedcountriesandEuropeanUnion
CentralandSouth-easternEurope(non-EU)and…
Sub-SaharanAfrica
LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
Worldwide
EastAsia
South-EastAsiaandthePacific
SouthAsia
Unemploymentrate
2015*** 2014****Provisional estimate***Forecast
HighestUnemploymentRatesamongEUCountriesSource:Eurostat,May2016
GreeceandSpainhavethehighestratesofadultunemploymentintheEU.Youthunemploymentgreatlyexceedstheaverageadultrate.
24.1%19.8%
13.3%12%11.6%11.5%
10.1%10%9.9%9.7%
9%8.6%8.4%8.1%8%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Greece**
Spain
Croatia
Cyprus
Portugal
Italy
Euroarea
Slowakia
France
Latvia
Finland
EU
Belgium
Slovenia
Lithuania
Unemploymentrate
UKUnemploymentRate(LabourForceSurvey)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan-Mar1971
Apr-Jun1972
Jul-Sep1973
Oct-D
ec19
74Jan-Mar1976
Apr-Jun1977
Jul-Sep1978
Oct-D
ec19
79Jan-Mar1981
Apr-Jun1982
Jul-Sep1983
Oct-D
ec19
84Jan-Mar1986
Apr-Jun1987
Jul-Sep1988
Oct-D
ec19
89Jan-Mar1991
Apr-Jun1992
Jul-Sep1993
Oct-D
ec19
94Jan-Mar1996
Apr-Jun1997
Jul-Sep1998
Oct-D
ec19
99Jan-Mar2001
Apr-Jun2002
Jul-Sep2003
Oct-D
ec20
04Jan-Mar2006
Apr-Jun2007
Jul-Sep2008
Oct-D
ec20
09Jan-Mar2011
Apr-Jun2012
Jul-Sep2013
Oct-D
ec20
14
Unemployment rate(percentofthelabourforce)
Unemploymentmeasurespeoplewithoutajobwhohavebeenactivelyseekingworkwithinthelast4weeksandareavailabletostartworkwithinthenext2weeks.
SummaryoftheUKLabourMarket(November2015)
Source:OfficeofNationalStatistics
NumberofpeopleintheUKlabourmarket,SeptembertoNovember2015,seasonallyadjusted(thousandsofpeople)
Everybodyaged16oroveriseitheremployed,unemployedoreconomically inactive
Menworkingfull-time 14,495
Menworkingpart-time 2,236
Womenworkingfull-time 8,465
Womenworkingpart-time 6,193
Unemployedmen 919
Unemployedwomen 756
Economicallyinactive(Menaged16to64) 3,335
Economicallyinactive(Womenaged16to64) 5,587
Economicallyinactive(Menaged65andover) 4,444
Economicallyinactive(Womenaged65andover) 5,646
RegionalUnemploymentRatesintheUK(July2015)
8.1%
6.7%
6.5%
6.5%
6%
6%
5.9%
5.6%
5.6%
4.7%
4.7%
4.5%
4.4%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%
NorthEast
London
YorkshireandTheHumber
NorthernIreland
NorthWest
WestMidlands
Wales
Scotland
UnitedKingdom
EastMidlands
EastofEngland
South East
SouthWest
Unemploymentrate
DurationofLFSUnemploymentintheUKeconomy
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Over24months
12-24months
6-12months
Lessthan6months
Totalunemployment,seasonallyadjusted Inthelastfewyearstherehasbeenawelcomefallinthelevelofunemployment
OneofthebigchallengesfortheUKistomakemoreprogress inreducinglong-termstructuralunemployment
Under-Employment
Under-employmentoccurswhenpeoplearecountedas1. Lookingforanadditionaljoboractivelysearchingforanewjobwith
longerhourstoreplacetheircurrent(main)job2. TheywanttoworklongerhoursintheircurrentjobUnder-employmentcanberisingeventhoughunemploymentisdeclining
1,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,5002,7002,9003,1003,300
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SourceONS,July2015
Estimatedunder-employment levelintheUKeconomy000s
UnemploymentbyAgeintheUKEconomy
Thedeclineinunemploymentsince2011hasbeenacrossallagegroups,buthasbeengreaterforthe18to49agebracketsduringthisperiod
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
16-17 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015Q1-Q3
Totalunemployment,seasonallyadjusted
ChangingEmploymentRateintheUKinRecentYears
72.5%72.7%
72.9% 72.8%72.6%
70.5%
71.1%
73.3%73.5%
70.0%
70.5%
71.0%
71.5%
72.0%
72.5%
73.0%
73.5%
74.0%
Employmentrate
Theemploymentrateismeasuredasthepercentageofthepopulationofworkingagewhoareinfull-timeorpart-timepaidwork.
UnfilledJobVacanciesintheUKLabourMarket
Thechartshowsthenumberofregisteredunfilledjobvacancies– thisisoftenusedasaguidetothestrengthoflabourdemandintheeconomy
620
638
652658
666
682 685
699 703712
723735
744734 733 731 735
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
Jan-Mar'14
Feb-Apr'14
Mar-May'14
Apr-Jun'14
May-Jul'14
Jun-Aug'14
Jul-Sep'14
Aug-Oct'14
Sep-Nov'14
Oct-Dec'14
Nov-Jan´15
Dec-Feb´15
Jan-Mar´15
Feb-Apr´15
Mar-May´15
Apr-Jun´15
May-Jul´15
Jobvacanciesinthousands
EconomicInactivityintheUKLabourMarket
• Economicallyactivepeoplearethoseinworkplusthoseseekingandavailabletowork.Economicallyinactivepeoplearethosewhohavestoppedanactivesearchforpaidworkinthelabourmarket.
• BetweenMar-May2015,thetotalofeconomicallyinactiveaged16-64(thousands)intheUKwasmeasuredatjustover9million.
Totaleconomicallyinactiveaged
16-64(thousands)
StudentsLooking
afterfamily/home
Long-termsick
Discouragedworkers Retired Other Doesnot
wantajob
Mar-May2010 9,433 2,288 2,352 2,233 71 1,513 794 7,049
Mar-May2013 9,179 2,360 2,293 2,065 64 1,387 825 6,850
Mar-May2015 9,019 2,312 2,265 2,070 42 1,269 861 6,718
EconomicInactivityintheUKLabourMarket
Peoplenotinemploymentwhohavenotbeenseekingworkwithinthelast4weeksand/orareunabletostartworkwithinthenext2weeks
8,400
8,600
8,800
9,000
9,200
9,400
9,600
Jan-Mar2006
May-Ju
l2006
Sep-No
v2006
Jan-Mar2007
May-Ju
l2007
Sep-No
v2007
Jan-Mar2008
May-Ju
l2008
Sep-No
v2008
Jan-Mar2009
May-Ju
l2009
Sep-No
v2009
Jan-Mar2010
May-Ju
l2010
Sep-No
v2010
Jan-Mar2011
May-Ju
l2011
Sep-No
v2011
Jan-Mar2012
May-Ju
l2012
Sep-No
v2012
Jan-Mar2013
May-Ju
l2013
Sep-No
v2013
Jan-Mar2014
May-Ju
l2014
Sep-No
v2014
Jan-Mar2015
May-Ju
l2015
Sep-No
v2015
Totaleconomically inactiveaged16-64(thousands)
ReasonsforEconomicInactivityintheUK
Peoplenotinemploymentwhohavenotbeenseekingworkwithinthelast4weeksand/orareunabletostartworkwithinthenext2weeks
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
ReasonsforInactivity(3monthsfromNov2015-Jan2016)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Doesnotwantjob(thousands)
Wantsajob(thousands)
Ofthetotalwhoareeconomically inactive000’s000’s
TheRiseofPart-TimeEmploymentintheUK
AkeyfeatureoftheUKeconomyinrecentyearshasbeenariseinpart-timeemployment.By2015overaquarterofpeopleworkedpart-time.
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1992 Q2 1995 Q2 1998 Q2 2001 Q2 2004 Q2 2007 Q2 2010 Q2 2013 Q2
% part-time that could not find full-time job (LHS)
Part-time as % of total employment (RHS)
%ofpart-timeemployment %oftotalemployment
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
TheRiseofZeroHoursContractsintheUKEconomy
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ZeroHoursContracts donotguarantee aminimum numberofworkinghourseachweek
Inemploymentonazerohourscontract(thousands)
Percentageofpeopleinemploymentonazerohourscontract
• Peopleon“zero-hourscontracts”aremorelikelytobeyoung,parttime,women,orinfull-timeeducationwhencomparedwithotherpeopleinemployment.
• Onaverage,someoneona“zero-hourscontract”usuallyworks26hoursaweek
Total(thousands)
%ofpeopleinwork
AreUKUnemploymentFiguresAccurate/Reliable?
Timelyfiguresinneweachmonth
Largesamplesize(40,000+)fortheLFSmeasure
Local®ionaljoblessdatahelps
policy
InUK,alowlevelofwelfarebenefit
fraud
StrengthofUnemploymentData
Muchhiddenunemployment
Sampleerrorsareinevitable
Highlevelofunder-employment
Highrateoflabourmigrationaffects
accuracy
Problems/LimitationsofData
MainTypesofUnemployment
SeasonalRegularseasonal
changesinemployment/
labourdemande.g.tourism,retail,hospitality,
agricultureandconstructionindustries
StructuralArisesfromthe
mismatchofskillsandjob
opportunitiesasthepatternoflabourdemand
changesovertime– linkedto
occupationalandgeographic labour
immobility
FrictionalTransitional
unemploymentduetopeoplemovingbetweenjobs andalso newentrantstothelabour
market
CyclicalCausedbyafallin
orpersistentweaknessof
aggregatedemandleadingtoadeclineinrealGDPand
jobs
GPL
RealGDP
GPL1
AS
Y1
AD1
AD2
Y2
CyclicalUnemployment– FallingAggregateDemand
Cyclicalunemploymentisduetoalackofdemandfor
goodsandservices.Inarecession,firmsare
likelytoreduceemploymenttocutcosts– thisiscalled“labourshedding” or
“down-sizing”
CyclicalunemploymenthasbeenamajorproblemformanyEuropeanUnion
economiessuchasGreece,ItalyandSpainwithlowrates
ofeconomicgrowth.
GPL2
Source:ONS
UKEconomicGrowthandUnemployment
Percent
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
2015Q3
UKGDPgrowth,quarteronquarter
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
2015Q3
Unemployment rate
EconomicRecessionandCyclicalUnemployment
Inaneconomicrecession,realnationaloutputcontractsandthis
leadstoanincreaseinspare
productivecapacity.Firmsthencuttheirworkforceand
cyclicalunemployment
rises
Capitalgoods
Consumergoods
PPF
AB
C D
E
F
StructuralChangesinEmployment
Structuralunemploymentwhentherearesignificantchangesinthepatternofemploymentinaneconomy
Declineofheavymanufacturing
Risingincomescausingshift
towardsservices
Automatic– i.e.roboticsreplacing
jobs
Foreigncompetition– rising imports
Long-termregionaleconomicdecline
Outsourcingofproductionoverseas
StructuralBarrierstoPeopleFindingWork
Structuralunemploymentcanarisefromaseriesoflabourmarketfailuresi.e.structuralbarriers/hurdlestopeoplefindingwork
Skillsgaps- newjobsoftenrequirenewskills– costofre-training
Unaffordablehousing(tobuyandtorent)
DisincentivescreatedbythePovertyTrap(tax
andwelfare)
Riskofemployerdiscrimination
Erosionofskillsandmotivationfromlongtermunemployment
DisincentivescreatedbyUnemploymentTrap(e.g.childcarecosts)
YouthUnemploymentRateintheUK
Youth unemployment rate (18-24 years old) Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
10.6% 10.4% 10.4% 10.6% 10.4%11%
12.2% 12.2%13.3%
17.3%17.9%
19% 19.3% 18.8%
15%
13.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Unem
ploymentrateinpercent
UKYouthUnemploymentLevelsByGender
Youth unemployment (18-24 years old) Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
469 463441 444 433 428 416 409
394375 367
353 356 359 353340 344 338 341 342 340 344 339
318324310 302 296 299
284 277 266 255235 225 219 224
242259
244 243 250 246 243 238 246 239225
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Aug'13
Sep'13
Oct'13
Nov'13
Dec'13
Jan'14
Feb'14
Mar'14
Apr'14
May'14
Jun'14
Jul'14
Aug'14
Sep'14
Oct'14
Nov'14
Dec'14
Jan'15
Feb'15
Mar'15
Apr'15
May'15
Jun'15
Jul'15
Unem
ploymentrateinthousands
Men Women
YouthUnemploymentRateinSpain
TheProblemofYouthUnemployment
• 627,000peopleaged16-24wereunemployedinDecember2015-February2016,down115,000onthepreviousyear.
• Theunemploymentratefor16-24yearoldswas13.7%
• Highratesofyouthunemploymenthaveseriouseconomic andsocialconsequences
SkillsGaps-Employersmaynotbewillingtoemployyoungpeoplewholackbasicfunctional
literacy
ReluctantEmployers–
theymaypreferolder,moreexperiencedworkerswith atrackrecord
FallingRetirement
Ratescausedbydeclining
pension incomes=fewerjobsforyoungerpeople
Competition forJobs – Increasingcompetition
frommorehighlyskilledmigrant
workers
Someofthecausesofhighyouthunemploymentareshownbelow
NEETS
Textgoeshere
Young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) in UK from Jan-March 2013 to Jan-March 2015 (in 1,000)
1,093 1,092 1,0961,041
987 966 954 963 943
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-Mar2013
Apr-Jun2013
Jul-Sep2013
Oct-Dec2013
Jan-Mar2014
Apr-Jun2014
Jul-Sep2014
Oct-Dec2014
Jan-Mar2015
NEETinth
ousands
NEETSare“outsiders”inthelabourmarketandthisgrouphasbecomeakeyareaforpolicyinterventione.g.viaapprenticeshipschemes
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
ConsequencesofHighYouthUnemployment
Costtothegovernmentinlosttaxrevenuesandincreasedwelfare
Fallinaggregatedemandasyoungworkershavelessdisposableincome(theyhaveahighmarginalpropensitytoconsume)
Longtermeconomicinactivitycanhavehugeeffectsonexpectedlifetimeincome
Diminishedaccesstocreditifyoungpeopledonothaveformalemployment- riskofpenalinterestrates
Braindraineffectsasyoungerworkersleaveacountryinsearchofworke.g.exodusofSpanishyouthunemployedtoGermany&UK
PolicyOptionstoCutYouthUnemployment
Expandmentoringprogrammes- more
alternativestouniversitypost18
Morecertifiedapprenticeship
schemes
Bettercareereducationinschools
Lowernationalinsurancefor
employerswhotakeonyoungerworkers
IncreasedfundingforeducationinSTEMandcoding
Improvementsinbasicskillsincluding
numeracyandliteracy
Increasedbursariesforuniversitytuition
Macroeconomicpoliciesthathelpavoidrecessions
Alowerminimumwageforyounger
workers?
DurationofLFSUnemploymentintheUKeconomy
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Over24months
12-24months
6-12months
Lessthan6months
Totalunemployment,seasonallyadjusted Inthelastfewyearstherehasbeenawelcomefallinthelevelofunemployment
OneofthebigchallengesfortheUKistomakemoreprogress inreducinglong-termstructuralunemployment
“LabourScarringEffects”fromHighUnemployment
Lossofworkexperience• Reducedemployabilityfromadepreciationofskills• GapsinCVsmayinfluencepotentialemployers• Declineinqualityofhumancapital
Lossofcurrentandfutureincome• Vulnerabilitytoconsumerdebtathighinterestrates• Declineinphysicalhealthandincreaseinpsychologicalstress– lesslikelythatsomeonewillfindworkagain
Changingpatternofjobsintheeconomy• Newjobsinrecoverystagearedifferent fromlostones• Structuralunemployment– i.e.occupationalimmobility–makesithardertogetpeopleintothenewjobs
SummaryofMainCostsofUnemployment
Slowergrowth
Risinginequality
Erosionofskills
Fiscalcosts Externalities
Unemploymenthassignificanteconomicandsocialcostsespeciallywhentherateofunemployment ispersistentlyhighandmanypeopleareoutofworkforprolongedperiods.Thedamageforexamplecausedbyveryhighunemployment inmanystrugglingEuroZonecountriesistestimonytotheimpactthatunemployment canhave.
PoliciestoReduceUnemployment– LabourDemand
MacroStimulusPolicies(+MultiplierEffects)• Lowinterestrates +improvingcreditsupplytobusinesses• Depreciationintheexchangerate(tohelpexporters)• Infrastructureinvestmentprojects(fiscalpolicy)
Cuttingthecostofemployingextraworkers• Reductionsintherateofnationalinsurancecontributions• Financialsupportforapprenticeships/paidinternships• Extrafundingforregionalpolicy– specialeconomiczones
CompetitivenessPolicies• Reductionsincorporationtax(toincreaseinvestment)• Taxincentivesforresearch/innovationspending• Enterprisepoliciestoencouragenewbusinessstart-ups
PoliciestoReduceUnemployment– LabourSupply
Reducingoccupationalmobility• Betterfundingforandmoreeffectiveworktraining• Teachingnewskillse.g.Codingforgaming,languages• Anexpansionofapprenticeship/internshipprogrammes
Improvinggeographicalmobility• Riseinhouse-buildingwillhelptokeeppropertypriceslowerandencouragemoreaffordablehousing rents
• Activeregionalpolicytoimprovetransportinfrastructure
Stimulatestrongerworkincentives• Higherminimumwage (nowrebrandedasalivingwage)• Increasedtaxfreeallowance of£11,500from2016• Welfarereformstohelpreducetheriskofthepovertytrap
GettingUKUnemploymentDownBelow5%
Requiressustainedrealeconomic
growth– reducingcyclicalvolatility
Requiresmorebalancedgrowthe.g.betweenthe
regions
Policiesneedtomakeworkand
educationinvestmentpay
Aflexiblelabourmarkethelps
absorbexternaleconomicshocks
Re-skillingtheworkforceinafast-changing labour
market
Effectivepoliciesfocusonthe
underlyingcauses
Evaluation:KeyBarrierstoLoweringUnemployment
• Highlevelsoflong-termstructuralunemploymentintheUK• Hardtoovercomethedisincentiveeffects of
• Acomplexwelfarebenefitsandtaxsystem• Anunaffordablehousingsector(bothtobuyandtorent)• Low-paidjobsthatkeepfamiliesinrelativepoverty• Highcostsandunevenavailabilityofqualitychildcare
• Highratesofpublicsectordependencyinsomeareas• Manypeopleareunder-employed,stuckinpart-timejobs• Skillsshortages,creakinginfrastructure,+hugevariationsin
educationaloutcomesandopportunities• Weakdemandindomestic&exportmarketse.g.economic
problemsintheEuropeanUnion
EvaluatingtheBenefitsofFallingUnemployment
Standardeconomicandsocialbenefitsoffallingunemployment
Potentialdisadvantagesoffallingunemployment
• Increasedemployment– boostsrealGDP,helpstoliftlivingstandards,demand
• Extraspendingfromexpandinglabourmarketmightworsen thecurrentaccount
• Morepeopleinwork– createsextrataxrevenues forthegovernmenteithertolowerthedeficit/increasespending(G)
• Riskofanaccelerationindemand-pullandcost-pushinflationarypressures ifunemploymentfallsrapidly
• Socialcostsofhighunemploymentaresevere– progressincuttingithasimportanteconomic +socialbenefits
• Fewer sparelabourwillmeanariseinunfilledvacancies;labourshortagesmightputoffsomeinwardinvestment
MacroObjectives:Unemployment
IBEconomicsSection2.3:LowUnemployment