IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people...

42
Macro Objectives: Unemployment IB Economics Section 2.3: Low Unemployment

Transcript of IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people...

Page 1: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

MacroObjectives:Unemployment

IBEconomicsSection2.3:LowUnemployment

Page 2: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

Unemployment

Theunemployedarethosepeopleable,availableandwillingtoworkbutcannotfindajobdespiteanactivesearchforwork

• Unemploymentmeansthatscarcehumanresourcesarenotbeingusedtoproducethegoodsandservicesthathelptomeetpeople’schangingneedsandwants

• Persistentlyhighunemploymentcanhavedamagingscarringconsequencesforaneconomycausingeconomicandsocialcosts

• Problemscausedbyunemploymentareoftendeep-rootedinlocalandregionalcommunitiesandwithinparticulargroupsofsociety– forexampleintheUK,morethanoneinsixyoungpeopleareoutofworkandnearlyfortypercentofunemployedpeoplehavebeenoutofworkforatleastayear

• Unemployment intheUKisfallingbutthereareperhapslimitstohowfarthejoblessratecandropwithoutaffectingothermacroeconomicaims.

Page 3: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

MeasuringUnemployment– SomeKeyTerms

Claimant Count(JSA) Thenumber ofpeopleofficiallyclaimingunemployment-relatedbenefits– mustbeactively seekingwork

LabourForceSurvey(LFS) Allthoseactivelyseekingandavailableforwork,whetherornottheyareclaimingbenefit

Long-Termunemployed People unemployed foratleastoneyear

Labourforce Thenumber ofpeopleofworkingagewhoare able,availableandwillingtowork

Fullemployment Whenthereenoughunfilled jobvacanciesforalltheunemployed totakework

Discouragedworkers Peopleoutofworkforalong timewhomaygiveuponjobsearchandeffectively leavethelabourmarket

Economicallyinactive Thosewhoareofworkingagebutareneitherinworknoractivelyseekingpaidwork

Employmentrate Thepercentageofthepopulation ofworkingageinfull-timeorpart-timepaidwork

Unemploymentrate Percentageoftheeconomicallyactivepopulation whoareunemployed

Page 4: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

9.9%

7.1%

5.2% 5.4% 5.4%4.8%

6.4%

4.2%

3.3%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

France India UnitedStates

UnitedKingdom

Russia Germany Brazil China Japan

Unem

ploymentrate

Unemploymentinselectedcountriesin2015Source:IMF

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UnemploymentinselectedworldregionsSource:IMF

12.5%

11%

7.5%

7.8%

7.7%

6.8%

5.9%

4.8%

4.3%

3.9%

12.5%

11%

7.8%

7.7%

7.7%

6.6%

5.9%

4.6%

4.3%

3.9%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

NorthAfrica

MiddleEast

DevelopedcountriesandEuropeanUnion

CentralandSouth-easternEurope(non-EU)and…

Sub-SaharanAfrica

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

Worldwide

EastAsia

South-EastAsiaandthePacific

SouthAsia

Unemploymentrate

2015*** 2014****Provisional estimate***Forecast

Page 6: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

HighestUnemploymentRatesamongEUCountriesSource:Eurostat,May2016

GreeceandSpainhavethehighestratesofadultunemploymentintheEU.Youthunemploymentgreatlyexceedstheaverageadultrate.

24.1%19.8%

13.3%12%11.6%11.5%

10.1%10%9.9%9.7%

9%8.6%8.4%8.1%8%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%

Greece**

Spain

Croatia

Cyprus

Portugal

Italy

Euroarea

Slowakia

France

Latvia

Finland

EU

Belgium

Slovenia

Lithuania

Unemploymentrate

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UKUnemploymentRate(LabourForceSurvey)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan-Mar1971

Apr-Jun1972

Jul-Sep1973

Oct-D

ec19

74Jan-Mar1976

Apr-Jun1977

Jul-Sep1978

Oct-D

ec19

79Jan-Mar1981

Apr-Jun1982

Jul-Sep1983

Oct-D

ec19

84Jan-Mar1986

Apr-Jun1987

Jul-Sep1988

Oct-D

ec19

89Jan-Mar1991

Apr-Jun1992

Jul-Sep1993

Oct-D

ec19

94Jan-Mar1996

Apr-Jun1997

Jul-Sep1998

Oct-D

ec19

99Jan-Mar2001

Apr-Jun2002

Jul-Sep2003

Oct-D

ec20

04Jan-Mar2006

Apr-Jun2007

Jul-Sep2008

Oct-D

ec20

09Jan-Mar2011

Apr-Jun2012

Jul-Sep2013

Oct-D

ec20

14

Unemployment rate(percentofthelabourforce)

Unemploymentmeasurespeoplewithoutajobwhohavebeenactivelyseekingworkwithinthelast4weeksandareavailabletostartworkwithinthenext2weeks.

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SummaryoftheUKLabourMarket(November2015)

Source:OfficeofNationalStatistics

NumberofpeopleintheUKlabourmarket,SeptembertoNovember2015,seasonallyadjusted(thousandsofpeople)

Everybodyaged16oroveriseitheremployed,unemployedoreconomically inactive

Menworkingfull-time 14,495

Menworkingpart-time 2,236

Womenworkingfull-time 8,465

Womenworkingpart-time 6,193

Unemployedmen 919

Unemployedwomen 756

Economicallyinactive(Menaged16to64) 3,335

Economicallyinactive(Womenaged16to64) 5,587

Economicallyinactive(Menaged65andover) 4,444

Economicallyinactive(Womenaged65andover) 5,646

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RegionalUnemploymentRatesintheUK(July2015)

8.1%

6.7%

6.5%

6.5%

6%

6%

5.9%

5.6%

5.6%

4.7%

4.7%

4.5%

4.4%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%

NorthEast

London

YorkshireandTheHumber

NorthernIreland

NorthWest

WestMidlands

Wales

Scotland

UnitedKingdom

EastMidlands

EastofEngland

South East

SouthWest

Unemploymentrate

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DurationofLFSUnemploymentintheUKeconomy

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Over24months

12-24months

6-12months

Lessthan6months

Totalunemployment,seasonallyadjusted Inthelastfewyearstherehasbeenawelcomefallinthelevelofunemployment

OneofthebigchallengesfortheUKistomakemoreprogress inreducinglong-termstructuralunemployment

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Under-Employment

Under-employmentoccurswhenpeoplearecountedas1. Lookingforanadditionaljoboractivelysearchingforanewjobwith

longerhourstoreplacetheircurrent(main)job2. TheywanttoworklongerhoursintheircurrentjobUnder-employmentcanberisingeventhoughunemploymentisdeclining

1,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,5002,7002,9003,1003,300

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

SourceONS,July2015

Estimatedunder-employment levelintheUKeconomy000s

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UnemploymentbyAgeintheUKEconomy

Thedeclineinunemploymentsince2011hasbeenacrossallagegroups,buthasbeengreaterforthe18to49agebracketsduringthisperiod

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

16-17 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015Q1-Q3

Totalunemployment,seasonallyadjusted

Page 13: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

ChangingEmploymentRateintheUKinRecentYears

72.5%72.7%

72.9% 72.8%72.6%

70.5%

71.1%

73.3%73.5%

70.0%

70.5%

71.0%

71.5%

72.0%

72.5%

73.0%

73.5%

74.0%

Employmentrate

Theemploymentrateismeasuredasthepercentageofthepopulationofworkingagewhoareinfull-timeorpart-timepaidwork.

Page 14: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

UnfilledJobVacanciesintheUKLabourMarket

Thechartshowsthenumberofregisteredunfilledjobvacancies– thisisoftenusedasaguidetothestrengthoflabourdemandintheeconomy

620

638

652658

666

682 685

699 703712

723735

744734 733 731 735

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

760

Jan-Mar'14

Feb-Apr'14

Mar-May'14

Apr-Jun'14

May-Jul'14

Jun-Aug'14

Jul-Sep'14

Aug-Oct'14

Sep-Nov'14

Oct-Dec'14

Nov-Jan´15

Dec-Feb´15

Jan-Mar´15

Feb-Apr´15

Mar-May´15

Apr-Jun´15

May-Jul´15

Jobvacanciesinthousands

Page 15: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

EconomicInactivityintheUKLabourMarket

• Economicallyactivepeoplearethoseinworkplusthoseseekingandavailabletowork.Economicallyinactivepeoplearethosewhohavestoppedanactivesearchforpaidworkinthelabourmarket.

• BetweenMar-May2015,thetotalofeconomicallyinactiveaged16-64(thousands)intheUKwasmeasuredatjustover9million.

Totaleconomicallyinactiveaged

16-64(thousands)

StudentsLooking

afterfamily/home

Long-termsick

Discouragedworkers Retired Other Doesnot

wantajob

Mar-May2010 9,433 2,288 2,352 2,233 71 1,513 794 7,049

Mar-May2013 9,179 2,360 2,293 2,065 64 1,387 825 6,850

Mar-May2015 9,019 2,312 2,265 2,070 42 1,269 861 6,718

Page 16: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

EconomicInactivityintheUKLabourMarket

Peoplenotinemploymentwhohavenotbeenseekingworkwithinthelast4weeksand/orareunabletostartworkwithinthenext2weeks

8,400

8,600

8,800

9,000

9,200

9,400

9,600

Jan-Mar2006

May-Ju

l2006

Sep-No

v2006

Jan-Mar2007

May-Ju

l2007

Sep-No

v2007

Jan-Mar2008

May-Ju

l2008

Sep-No

v2008

Jan-Mar2009

May-Ju

l2009

Sep-No

v2009

Jan-Mar2010

May-Ju

l2010

Sep-No

v2010

Jan-Mar2011

May-Ju

l2011

Sep-No

v2011

Jan-Mar2012

May-Ju

l2012

Sep-No

v2012

Jan-Mar2013

May-Ju

l2013

Sep-No

v2013

Jan-Mar2014

May-Ju

l2014

Sep-No

v2014

Jan-Mar2015

May-Ju

l2015

Sep-No

v2015

Totaleconomically inactiveaged16-64(thousands)

Page 17: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

ReasonsforEconomicInactivityintheUK

Peoplenotinemploymentwhohavenotbeenseekingworkwithinthelast4weeksand/orareunabletostartworkwithinthenext2weeks

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

ReasonsforInactivity(3monthsfromNov2015-Jan2016)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Doesnotwantjob(thousands)

Wantsajob(thousands)

Ofthetotalwhoareeconomically inactive000’s000’s

Page 18: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

TheRiseofPart-TimeEmploymentintheUK

AkeyfeatureoftheUKeconomyinrecentyearshasbeenariseinpart-timeemployment.By2015overaquarterofpeopleworkedpart-time.

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1992 Q2 1995 Q2 1998 Q2 2001 Q2 2004 Q2 2007 Q2 2010 Q2 2013 Q2

% part-time that could not find full-time job (LHS)

Part-time as % of total employment (RHS)

%ofpart-timeemployment %oftotalemployment

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

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TheRiseofZeroHoursContractsintheUKEconomy

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ZeroHoursContracts donotguarantee aminimum numberofworkinghourseachweek

Inemploymentonazerohourscontract(thousands)

Percentageofpeopleinemploymentonazerohourscontract

• Peopleon“zero-hourscontracts”aremorelikelytobeyoung,parttime,women,orinfull-timeeducationwhencomparedwithotherpeopleinemployment.

• Onaverage,someoneona“zero-hourscontract”usuallyworks26hoursaweek

Total(thousands)

%ofpeopleinwork

Page 20: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

AreUKUnemploymentFiguresAccurate/Reliable?

Timelyfiguresinneweachmonth

Largesamplesize(40,000+)fortheLFSmeasure

Local&regionaljoblessdatahelps

policy

InUK,alowlevelofwelfarebenefit

fraud

StrengthofUnemploymentData

Muchhiddenunemployment

Sampleerrorsareinevitable

Highlevelofunder-employment

Highrateoflabourmigrationaffects

accuracy

Problems/LimitationsofData

Page 21: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

MainTypesofUnemployment

SeasonalRegularseasonal

changesinemployment/

labourdemande.g.tourism,retail,hospitality,

agricultureandconstructionindustries

StructuralArisesfromthe

mismatchofskillsandjob

opportunitiesasthepatternoflabourdemand

changesovertime– linkedto

occupationalandgeographic labour

immobility

FrictionalTransitional

unemploymentduetopeoplemovingbetweenjobs andalso newentrantstothelabour

market

CyclicalCausedbyafallin

orpersistentweaknessof

aggregatedemandleadingtoadeclineinrealGDPand

jobs

Page 22: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

GPL

RealGDP

GPL1

AS

Y1

AD1

AD2

Y2

CyclicalUnemployment– FallingAggregateDemand

Cyclicalunemploymentisduetoalackofdemandfor

goodsandservices.Inarecession,firmsare

likelytoreduceemploymenttocutcosts– thisiscalled“labourshedding” or

“down-sizing”

CyclicalunemploymenthasbeenamajorproblemformanyEuropeanUnion

economiessuchasGreece,ItalyandSpainwithlowrates

ofeconomicgrowth.

GPL2

Page 23: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

Source:ONS

UKEconomicGrowthandUnemployment

Percent

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

2013Q1

2013Q3

2014Q1

2014Q3

2015Q1

2015Q3

UKGDPgrowth,quarteronquarter

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

2013Q1

2013Q3

2014Q1

2014Q3

2015Q1

2015Q3

Unemployment rate

Page 24: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

EconomicRecessionandCyclicalUnemployment

Inaneconomicrecession,realnationaloutputcontractsandthis

leadstoanincreaseinspare

productivecapacity.Firmsthencuttheirworkforceand

cyclicalunemployment

rises

Capitalgoods

Consumergoods

PPF

AB

C D

E

F

Page 25: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

StructuralChangesinEmployment

Structuralunemploymentwhentherearesignificantchangesinthepatternofemploymentinaneconomy

Declineofheavymanufacturing

Risingincomescausingshift

towardsservices

Automatic– i.e.roboticsreplacing

jobs

Foreigncompetition– rising imports

Long-termregionaleconomicdecline

Outsourcingofproductionoverseas

Page 26: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

StructuralBarrierstoPeopleFindingWork

Structuralunemploymentcanarisefromaseriesoflabourmarketfailuresi.e.structuralbarriers/hurdlestopeoplefindingwork

Skillsgaps- newjobsoftenrequirenewskills– costofre-training

Unaffordablehousing(tobuyandtorent)

DisincentivescreatedbythePovertyTrap(tax

andwelfare)

Riskofemployerdiscrimination

Erosionofskillsandmotivationfromlongtermunemployment

DisincentivescreatedbyUnemploymentTrap(e.g.childcarecosts)

Page 27: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

YouthUnemploymentRateintheUK

Youth unemployment rate (18-24 years old) Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

10.6% 10.4% 10.4% 10.6% 10.4%11%

12.2% 12.2%13.3%

17.3%17.9%

19% 19.3% 18.8%

15%

13.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Unem

ploymentrateinpercent

Page 28: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

UKYouthUnemploymentLevelsByGender

Youth unemployment (18-24 years old) Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

469 463441 444 433 428 416 409

394375 367

353 356 359 353340 344 338 341 342 340 344 339

318324310 302 296 299

284 277 266 255235 225 219 224

242259

244 243 250 246 243 238 246 239225

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Aug'13

Sep'13

Oct'13

Nov'13

Dec'13

Jan'14

Feb'14

Mar'14

Apr'14

May'14

Jun'14

Jul'14

Aug'14

Sep'14

Oct'14

Nov'14

Dec'14

Jan'15

Feb'15

Mar'15

Apr'15

May'15

Jun'15

Jul'15

Unem

ploymentrateinthousands

Men Women

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YouthUnemploymentRateinSpain

Page 30: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

TheProblemofYouthUnemployment

• 627,000peopleaged16-24wereunemployedinDecember2015-February2016,down115,000onthepreviousyear.

• Theunemploymentratefor16-24yearoldswas13.7%

• Highratesofyouthunemploymenthaveseriouseconomic andsocialconsequences

SkillsGaps-Employersmaynotbewillingtoemployyoungpeoplewholackbasicfunctional

literacy

ReluctantEmployers–

theymaypreferolder,moreexperiencedworkerswith atrackrecord

FallingRetirement

Ratescausedbydeclining

pension incomes=fewerjobsforyoungerpeople

Competition forJobs – Increasingcompetition

frommorehighlyskilledmigrant

workers

Someofthecausesofhighyouthunemploymentareshownbelow

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NEETS

Textgoeshere

Young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) in UK from Jan-March 2013 to Jan-March 2015 (in 1,000)

1,093 1,092 1,0961,041

987 966 954 963 943

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Jan-Mar2013

Apr-Jun2013

Jul-Sep2013

Oct-Dec2013

Jan-Mar2014

Apr-Jun2014

Jul-Sep2014

Oct-Dec2014

Jan-Mar2015

NEETinth

ousands

NEETSare“outsiders”inthelabourmarketandthisgrouphasbecomeakeyareaforpolicyinterventione.g.viaapprenticeshipschemes

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

Page 32: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

ConsequencesofHighYouthUnemployment

Costtothegovernmentinlosttaxrevenuesandincreasedwelfare

Fallinaggregatedemandasyoungworkershavelessdisposableincome(theyhaveahighmarginalpropensitytoconsume)

Longtermeconomicinactivitycanhavehugeeffectsonexpectedlifetimeincome

Diminishedaccesstocreditifyoungpeopledonothaveformalemployment- riskofpenalinterestrates

Braindraineffectsasyoungerworkersleaveacountryinsearchofworke.g.exodusofSpanishyouthunemployedtoGermany&UK

Page 33: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

PolicyOptionstoCutYouthUnemployment

Expandmentoringprogrammes- more

alternativestouniversitypost18

Morecertifiedapprenticeship

schemes

Bettercareereducationinschools

Lowernationalinsurancefor

employerswhotakeonyoungerworkers

IncreasedfundingforeducationinSTEMandcoding

Improvementsinbasicskillsincluding

numeracyandliteracy

Increasedbursariesforuniversitytuition

Macroeconomicpoliciesthathelpavoidrecessions

Alowerminimumwageforyounger

workers?

Page 34: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

DurationofLFSUnemploymentintheUKeconomy

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Over24months

12-24months

6-12months

Lessthan6months

Totalunemployment,seasonallyadjusted Inthelastfewyearstherehasbeenawelcomefallinthelevelofunemployment

OneofthebigchallengesfortheUKistomakemoreprogress inreducinglong-termstructuralunemployment

Page 35: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

“LabourScarringEffects”fromHighUnemployment

Lossofworkexperience• Reducedemployabilityfromadepreciationofskills• GapsinCVsmayinfluencepotentialemployers• Declineinqualityofhumancapital

Lossofcurrentandfutureincome• Vulnerabilitytoconsumerdebtathighinterestrates• Declineinphysicalhealthandincreaseinpsychologicalstress– lesslikelythatsomeonewillfindworkagain

Changingpatternofjobsintheeconomy• Newjobsinrecoverystagearedifferent fromlostones• Structuralunemployment– i.e.occupationalimmobility–makesithardertogetpeopleintothenewjobs

Page 36: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

SummaryofMainCostsofUnemployment

Slowergrowth

Risinginequality

Erosionofskills

Fiscalcosts Externalities

Unemploymenthassignificanteconomicandsocialcostsespeciallywhentherateofunemployment ispersistentlyhighandmanypeopleareoutofworkforprolongedperiods.Thedamageforexamplecausedbyveryhighunemployment inmanystrugglingEuroZonecountriesistestimonytotheimpactthatunemployment canhave.

Page 37: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

PoliciestoReduceUnemployment– LabourDemand

MacroStimulusPolicies(+MultiplierEffects)• Lowinterestrates +improvingcreditsupplytobusinesses• Depreciationintheexchangerate(tohelpexporters)• Infrastructureinvestmentprojects(fiscalpolicy)

Cuttingthecostofemployingextraworkers• Reductionsintherateofnationalinsurancecontributions• Financialsupportforapprenticeships/paidinternships• Extrafundingforregionalpolicy– specialeconomiczones

CompetitivenessPolicies• Reductionsincorporationtax(toincreaseinvestment)• Taxincentivesforresearch/innovationspending• Enterprisepoliciestoencouragenewbusinessstart-ups

Page 38: IB Macro Unemployment - Amazon S3 · PDF fileUnemployment The unemployed are those people able, available and willing to work but cannot find a job despite an active search for work

PoliciestoReduceUnemployment– LabourSupply

Reducingoccupationalmobility• Betterfundingforandmoreeffectiveworktraining• Teachingnewskillse.g.Codingforgaming,languages• Anexpansionofapprenticeship/internshipprogrammes

Improvinggeographicalmobility• Riseinhouse-buildingwillhelptokeeppropertypriceslowerandencouragemoreaffordablehousing rents

• Activeregionalpolicytoimprovetransportinfrastructure

Stimulatestrongerworkincentives• Higherminimumwage (nowrebrandedasalivingwage)• Increasedtaxfreeallowance of£11,500from2016• Welfarereformstohelpreducetheriskofthepovertytrap

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GettingUKUnemploymentDownBelow5%

Requiressustainedrealeconomic

growth– reducingcyclicalvolatility

Requiresmorebalancedgrowthe.g.betweenthe

regions

Policiesneedtomakeworkand

educationinvestmentpay

Aflexiblelabourmarkethelps

absorbexternaleconomicshocks

Re-skillingtheworkforceinafast-changing labour

market

Effectivepoliciesfocusonthe

underlyingcauses

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Evaluation:KeyBarrierstoLoweringUnemployment

• Highlevelsoflong-termstructuralunemploymentintheUK• Hardtoovercomethedisincentiveeffects of

• Acomplexwelfarebenefitsandtaxsystem• Anunaffordablehousingsector(bothtobuyandtorent)• Low-paidjobsthatkeepfamiliesinrelativepoverty• Highcostsandunevenavailabilityofqualitychildcare

• Highratesofpublicsectordependencyinsomeareas• Manypeopleareunder-employed,stuckinpart-timejobs• Skillsshortages,creakinginfrastructure,+hugevariationsin

educationaloutcomesandopportunities• Weakdemandindomestic&exportmarketse.g.economic

problemsintheEuropeanUnion

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EvaluatingtheBenefitsofFallingUnemployment

Standardeconomicandsocialbenefitsoffallingunemployment

Potentialdisadvantagesoffallingunemployment

• Increasedemployment– boostsrealGDP,helpstoliftlivingstandards,demand

• Extraspendingfromexpandinglabourmarketmightworsen thecurrentaccount

• Morepeopleinwork– createsextrataxrevenues forthegovernmenteithertolowerthedeficit/increasespending(G)

• Riskofanaccelerationindemand-pullandcost-pushinflationarypressures ifunemploymentfallsrapidly

• Socialcostsofhighunemploymentaresevere– progressincuttingithasimportanteconomic +socialbenefits

• Fewer sparelabourwillmeanariseinunfilledvacancies;labourshortagesmightputoffsomeinwardinvestment

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MacroObjectives:Unemployment

IBEconomicsSection2.3:LowUnemployment