Ib demo russia passenger transportation market. analysis and forecast to 2017_ may 2012

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Demo-Version

Russia: Passenger

Transportation Market

Analysis and Forecast to 2017

May 2012

Marketing Research

http://www.russianmarketreport.com

from 21 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru

Market Research Russia: Passenger Transportation Market. May 2012 (Demo-version)

Brief Overview

The report on the passenger transportation market in Russia contains:

Analysis and forecasts of market dynamics;

Structure of passenger transport by type;

Characteristics of bus fleets;

Analysis of the factors, influencing the development of the market;

Characteristics of container traffic by sea, rail or road transport;

Assessment and forecast of market development;

Financial and economic profiles of the leading companies in the industry.

Methodology:

Expert interviews with top managers of the largest players

Analysis of submissions from market participants

Analysis of statistical information, Rosstat, FEA.

The report examines passengers transport in the following commodity groups:

• Railway;

• Marine;

• Inland water;

• Air;

• Bus;

• Taxi;

• Tram;

• Trolleybus;

• Subways.

The report will allow you to:

1. Identify key indicators of the market, build your own business forecasts, based on

market data

2. Evaluate the growth potential and threats in the market

Key figures presented in the report on the Russian market of sandwich panels

The volume of passenger traffic;

Main market indicators.

The report contains the consensus market forecast based on the average value of the

forecasts of market participants. As market experts are considered: manufacturers,

importers, wholesale distributors, high-volume consumers, professional associations and

unions, and trade publications. The experts, participating in the survey, are provided with

special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




Why People Choose Us

• We have been professionals in marketing research for over 9 years, and have

completed over 1000 industry studies which are updated on a regular basis.

• We collect data via expert interviews with market participants. Industry experts

verify all secondary information used in the report.

• We have an extensive database of economic information in almost every sector of

the economy. Cross-analysis of related industries enables our clients to get a

complete picture of the market of interest.

• Our own research methodology guarantees the consistently high quality of our work.

• We offer unique and individualized customer service:

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find out about these conditions from our specialists now!




Research Design

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Russian passenger transportation

market and build a forecast of the industry in the medium term.

Geography of the research: Russia

Methodology

1. Analysis of secondary market data:

Secondary data refers to data from the Internet (industry portals, competitors’ sites,

shopping sites, articles and reviews, reference materials), specialized publications, state and

private media companies, marketing agencies, commercial databases, “IndexBox

Marketing” own research.

2. Analysis of Materials from Market Participants (price lists, brochures, etc.):

Data collection from market participants is needed to analyze the specifics of the market

and the parties involved in it, their pricing and assortment policy. Data on market

participants is gathered during the analysis of secondary information, and also by sending

requests for price lists and other presentation materials.

3. Expert Interviews with Market Participants

The analysis of secondary information is completed by expert interviews with

representatives of market participant companies – manufacturers and trading companies.

Our approach to the estimation

The consensus market forecast is the average value of the forecasts of market participants

(experts).

Experts

As market experts are considered: manufacturers, importers, wholesale distributors, high-

volume consumers, professional associations and unions, and trade publications. Expert

opinions are collected during telephone interviews conducted by IndexBox on a regular

basis (the standard is every six months, but can be more often, based on a special request

or under conditions of high volatility in the market). IndexBox has created an extensive

database of experts within key industries. The experts, participating in the survey, are

provided with special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




Accuracy of forecasts

The accuracy of forecasts is verified by experts in the given industry, based on the historical

period (3 years). In accordance with this accuracy, each expert weighs out the forecasts to

create the overall average forecast

Indicators

1. Consumption: Consumption is the main index estimated by our experts and features

the dynamics of consumption in real terms in the short to medium term. Experts give

an estimate of the potential volume of consumption in accordance with their

expectations and production plans (for manufacturers).

2. Internal production: It is based on the projected volume of consumption and production

capacity in any given industry, assessing, of course, and factoring in the dynamics of

domestic production.

3. Imports and Exports: Takes into account the retrospective dynamics of export-import

operations, strengths and weaknesses of the domestic production, changes in

legislation, the macroeconomic situation in the countries of the supplier (beneficiary) of

a product, an assessment of the dynamics of imports and exports.




Table of Contents

About IndexBox

1. Executive summary

2. Research design

3. Characteristics of passenger traffic in Russia

3.1 Volume and dynamics of passenger traffic in public transport in 2005 – 2011

3.2 Structure of passenger traffic by the type of public transport

4. Characteristics of bus transport passenger traffic in Russia

4.1 Characteristics of road infrastructure

4.1.1 Classification of roads

4.1.2 Classification of bridges, road structures and artificial roads

4.1.3 Length of automobile roads

4.1.4 Characteristics of traffic accidents in Russia

4.2 Characteristics of the bus fleet in Russia

4.2.1 Volume and dynamics of the bus fleet

4.2.2 Structure of the bus fleet by brand

4.2.3 Structure of the bus fleet by age

4.3 Volume and dynamics of passenger bus services in the 2005 – 2011

4.3.1 Passenger volume in the public bus transport

4.4 Characteristics of using public bus transport

4.4.1 Number of bus routes

4.4.2 Availability of public buses

4.4.3 Length of bus routes

4.4.4 Number of cities and towns with intercity buses

4.5 Structure of the bus passenger traffic by destination

5. Characteristics of rail transport passenger services in Russia

5.1. Characteristics of the railway infrastructure

5.2. Volume and dynamics of passenger rail services in 2005 - 2011

5.3. Characteristics of rail operators

5.3.1. JSC "Russian Railways"

5.3.2. OJSC "AK" "Railways of Yakutia"

5.3.3. JSC "Yamal Railway Company"

5.4. Structure of the rail passenger traffic by destination

6. Characteristics of inland waterways passenger services in Russia

6.1. Volume and dynamics of inland waterways passenger transport in 2005-2011

6.2. Structure of passenger transport by operators

6.3. The main river waterways for passenger transport

6.3.1. Azov-Don basin

6.3.2. Volga basin

6.3.3. Baltic Sea region

6.3.4. North Arctic basin




7. Characteristics of sea transport passenger services in Russia

7.1. Volume and dynamics of sea transport passenger services in 2005 - 2011

7.2. Classification of sea passenger transport

7.3. Structure of passenger transport by operators and ports

7.4. The largest operators for sea passenger transport in Russia

7.4.1. FGUP "Rosmorport"

7.4.2. Group of companies "Sovkomflot"

7.4.3. OJSC "Baltic Marine Shipping"

7.4.4. OJSC "Murmansk Marine Shipping "

7.4.5. OJSC "Commercial Sea Port of Sochi"

7.4.6. OJSC "Northern Marine Shipping"

7.4.7. OJSC "Novorossiysk Marine Shipping "

7.5. Description of key ports

7.5.1. St. Petersburg

7.5.2. Sochi

7.5.3. Novorossiysk

7.5.4. Tuapse

7.5.5. Vladivostok

7.5.6. Murmansk

7.6. Structure of sea transport passenger services by destination

8. Characteristics of air transport passenger services in Russia

8.1. Volume and dynamics of passenger traffic in 2005 - 2011

8.2. Characteristics of the fleet

8.3. Structure of the passenger flow by aviation operators

8.4. The largest air transport operators

8.4.1. OJSC "Aeroflot"

8.4.2. “Utair”

8.4.3. AK "Transaero"

8.4.4. OJSC "Siberia Airlines"

8.4.5. The airline GTC ”Russia”

8.5. Structure of air passenger transport services by destination

9. Characteristics of electric public transport

9.1. Volume and dynamics of the trolleybus traffic in 2005 - 2011

9.2. Volume and dynamics of passenger tram traffic in 2005 - 2011

9.3. Volume and dynamics of passenger traffic in the subway in 2005 - 2011

10. Cost indicators for passenger traffic in Russia

10.1. The cost of carriage of passengers, compensated by fare

10.2. The cost of transportation of passengers

10.3. Revenue from passenger transportation

11. State programs on development of the transport industry in Russia

12. Factors, influencing the development of passenger transport market

12.1. Level of well-being of the population

12.2. Availability of own vehicles

12.3. State of the tourism industry




13. Forecast for the development of the transportation market in 2012 - 2017 in

Russia

13.1. Evaluation of the potential volume of passenger bus services in 2012 - 2017

13.2. Evaluation of the potential volume of passenger rail transportation in 2012 -

2017

13.3. Evaluation of the potential volume of passenger traffic in inland waterway

transport in 2012 - 2017

13.4. Evaluation of the potential volume of passenger sea traffic in 2012 - 2017

13.5. Evaluation of the potential volume of passenger air traffic in 2012 - 2017

13.6. Evaluation of the potential volume of electric public transport in 2012 – 2017

Appendix 1. Profiles of the main carriers

• OJSC AK "Yakutia Railways"

• OJSC "MMP"

• OJSC "Sea Port of Sochi"

• OJSC "Novorossiysk Marine Shipping"

• OJSC "RZD"

• FGUC "Rosmorport"

• OJSC "Russian Airlines"

• OJSC "SMP"

• OJSC "SCF"

• OJSC "UTair"

• OJSC "YAZHDK"




List of Tables

Table 1. Dynamics of passengers traffic by type of public transport in the Russian Federation

in 2005 - 2011, in millions of people

Table 2. Structure of passenger traffic by type of public transport in the Russian Federation

in 2005 – 2011, in %

Table 3. Structure of passenger traffic by type of public transport, in billions of passenger-

kilometers

Table 4. Classification of roads based on traffic conditions and access

Table 5. Technical classification of public roads

Table 6. Classification of bridges according to various criteria

Table 7. Density of paved public roads in 1,000 square meters of territory by Federal

Districts, in kilometers

Table 8. Share of paved roads in the total length of public roads, in %

Table 9. Share of roads with improved surface in the total length of paved public roads, in

%

Table 10. Number of reported road accidents in the Russian Federation per 100 000 people,

by Federal Districts in 2002 - 2008

Table 11. Volume and dynamics of bus fleet in 2001 - 2009, in thousands of units

Table 12. Passenger traffic in public bus services in 2005 - 2011, in millions of people

Table 13. Number of bus routes, in 2008 – 2010, in units

Table 14. Supply of public buses to the population (in the end of each year, per 100,000

people), in 2005 - 2010, in units

Table 15. Length of bus routes, in 2008 – 2010, in kilometers

Table 16. Number of cities and towns with intercity bus service, in units

Table 17. Dynamics of passenger rail traffic in 2005 - 2011, in millions of people

Table 18. Structure of the market by carriers in far distance transportation (internal for the

Russian Federation and international transportation) in 2010, in millions of people

Table 19. Number of passengers in 2010 - 2011, in millions of passenger-kilometers

Table 20. Passenger turnover in 2010-2011, in millions of passenger-kilometers

Table 21. Dynamics of passenger transport by inland waterways in 2005 - 2011, in millions

of people

Table 22. Dynamics of passenger traffic by sea in 2005 - 2011, in millions of people

Table 23. Dynamics of air passenger traffic in 2005 - 2011, in millions of people

Table 24. Volume of traffic of worldwide and Russian civil aviation, in millions of people

Table 25. Registry of civil aircraft fleet of Russia as of January 2011, in units

Table 26. Composition of the commercial fleet of Russia as of January 2011, in units

Table 27. Composition of the special cargo aircraft fleet as of January 2011, in units

Table 28. Actual deliveries of special cargo planes to airlines of the Russian Federation in

2007 - 2010, in units

Table 29. Number of passengers carried by the operators in the Russian Federation, in

people




Table 30. Passenger traffic of the largest operators in 2010 - 2011, in thousands of

passenger-kilometers

Table 31. Structure of passenger transport by destination, in people

Table 32. Volume and dynamics of the trolleybus traffic in 2005 - 2011, in millions of people

Table 33. Volume and dynamics of the tram traffic in 2005 - 2011, in millions of people

Table 34. Volume and dynamics of transport in the subway in 2005-2011, in millions of

people

Table 35. Share of the cost of carriage of passengers, compensated by fare in Russia in

2005 - 2010, in %

Table 36. The cost of transportation of passengers in 2005 - 2010, in billions of RUR

Table 37. Revenue from passenger traffic in 2005 - 2010, in billions of RUR

Table 38. Composition of household expenditures in average per one household member in

2005 - 2010, in RUR

Table 39. Supply of the population of own cars (in the end of the year, per 1,000 people), in

units




List of Figures

Fig. 1. Structure of passenger traffic by type of public transport in the Russian Federation in

2005 – 2011, in %

Fig. 2. Length of roads in Russia, including public and institutional ones in 2002 - 2009, in

thousands of kilometers

Fig. 3. Length of roads in Russia, including paved roads in 2002-2009, in thousands of

kilometers

Fig. 4. Length of roads in Russia by Federal Districts, in %

Fig. 5. Length of public roads, including paved ones in 2002 - 2009, in square kilometers

Fig. 6. Length of public roads in Russia by Federal Districts, in %

Fig. 7. Length of institutional roads, including paved ones in 2002 - 2009, in square

kilometers

Fig. 8. Density of paved public roads for 1,000 square meters of territory in 2002 – 2008, in

kilometers

Fig. 9. Share of paved roads in the total length of roads in 2009, in %

Fig. 10. Share of roads with improved surface in the total length of public paved roads in

2008, in %

Fig. 11. Number of registered road accidents in the Russian Federation per 100,000 people,

in 2002 – 2008, in units and in %

Fig. 12. Number of people killed and injured in road accidents per 100,000 people in 2002 -

2008, in people and in %

Fig. 13. Bus fleet (excluding the very small class and shift buses) in various regions of

Russia as of 2009, in thousands of units

Fig. 14. Structure of bus fleet by brands in 2011, in %

Fig. 15. Structure of bus fleet by age in 2011, in %

Fig. 16. Volume of freight transport by bus in 2005 - 2011, in millions of people and in %

Fig. 17. Passenger traffic of public buses in 2005 – 2011, in millions of passenger-kilometers

Fig. 18. Dynamics of the number of bus routes in the end each year in 2008 - 2010, in units

Fig. 19. Supply of public buses to the population per 100,000 people, in 2005 - 2010, in

units

Fig. 20. Length of bus routes, in 2008 – 2010, in kilometers

Fig. 21. Structure of bus traffic by destination in 2010, in people

Fig. 22. Dynamics of passenger rail traffic in 2005 - 2011, in millions of people

Fig. 23. Number of passengers by direction in 2008 - 2011, in millions of people

Fig. 24. Structure of the market by carriers in far distance transportation (internal for the

Russian Federation and international transportation) in 2010, in millions of people

Fig. 25. Dynamics of passenger transport by inland waterways in 2005 - 2011, in millions of

people

Fig. 26. Volume of passenger traffic by the main operators of major inland waterway

transport in 2010, in people

Fig. 27. Dynamics of air passenger traffic in 2005 - 2011, in millions of people

Fig. 28. Volume of traffic of worldwide and Russian civil aviation, in millions of people




Fig. 29. Composition of the commercial fleet of Russia as of January 2011, in physical terms

Fig. 30. Composition of the special cargo aircraft fleet as of January 2011, in physical terms

Fig. 31. Structure of the special cargo aircraft fleet by brand as of January 2011, in physical

terms

Fig. 32. Structure of the Russian air transportation market by total passenger traffic on

international flights in 2010, in %

Fig. 33. Structure of the Russian air transportation market by total passenger traffic on

domestic flights in 2010, in %

Fig. 34. Structure of the Russian air transportation market by total passenger traffic in 2010

Fig. 35. Structure of the Russian air transportation market by total passenger traffic in

2011, in %

Fig. 36. Structure of passenger transport by destination, in %

Fig. 37. Dynamics of passenger traffic by civil aviation in the Russian Federation in 2005 -

2011, in kilometers

Fig. 38. Dynamics of passenger traffic by civil aviation in the Russian Federation in 2005 -

2011, in millions of passengers

Fig. 39. Average distance of the civil aviation flights in the Russian Federation in 2010, in

kilometers

Fig. 40. Volume and dynamics of the trolleybus traffic in 2005 - 2011, in millions of people

Fig. 41. Volume and dynamics of the tram traffic in 2005 - 2011, in millions of people

Fig. 42. Volume and dynamics of the traffic in the subways in 2005 - 2011, in millions of

people

Fig. 43. The cost of transportation of passengers in the Russian Federation by the main

types of transport in 2005 - 2010, in billions of RUR

Fig. 44. Revenue from passenger traffic in the Russian Federation by the main types of

transport in 2005 - 2010, in billions of RUR

Fig. 45. Population of the Russian Federation in 2002 – 2010, forecast for 2015

Fig. 46. Average salary in the Russian Federation in 2007 – 2010, forecast until 2017, in

RUR

Fig. 47. Distribution of the population by per capita income in 2005 - 2010, in %

Fig. 48. Volume and dynamics of consumer expenditures, average per household member in

2005 - 2010, in RUR per month

Fig. 49. Structure of household expenditures in 2005 - 2010, in %

Fig. 50. Forecast of the volume of passenger bus traffic in 2012 - 2017, in millions of people

Fig. 51. Forecast of the volume of passenger rail traffic in 2012 - 2017, in millions of people

Fig. 52. Forecast of the volume of passenger traffic in inland waterway transport in 2012 -

2017, in millions of people

Fig. 53. Forecast of the volume of passenger sea traffic in 2012 - 2017, in millions of people

Fig. 54. Forecast of the volume of passenger air traffic in 2012 - 2017, in millions of people

Fig. 55. Forecast of the volume of public transport passenger traffic in 2012 - 2017, in

millions of people




Executive Summary

…

In 2011, the number of passengers who used buses was … million, which was …% lower

than in the previous year. As an overall, the share of passenger transport in general was

…% (…% less than in 2010).

The population used rail transport much less in the last few years. The figures, compared to

the same indicators in the previous years, were …% in 2009 (… million) and …% (… million

people) in 2010. Only in 2011, there was an increase of …%, compared to previous year,

and the total number of passengers was ….

In the last four years, there was a downwards trend in the use of inland water transport.

Since 2007, when the number of passengers for the year was … million, the decline has

been …% in total to … million people in 2011.

…

Key figures and

conclusions

about the market




3. Characteristics of passenger traffic

in Russia

...

3.1. Volume and dynamics of passenger traffic in public

transport in 2005 – 2011

...

In 2011, compared to 2005, the number of passengers decreased by …%, from … billion to

… billion. The most significant decline happened in 2006 and 2007 - by …% and …%,

respectively.

Table 1. Dynamics of passengers traffic by type of public transport in the

Russian Federation in 2005 - 2011, in millions of people

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Bus transport … … … … … … …

In %, to the previous year …% …% …% …% …% …%

Trolleybus transport … … … … … … …


Tram transport … … … … … … …


Subway transport … … … … … … …


Rail transport … … … … … … …


Air transport … … … … … … …


Inland waterway … … … … … … …


Taxi … … … … … … …

Characteristics of the market

- Volume and dynamics

- Structure of passenger traffic




2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


Sea 1 1 1 1 2 2 2


Transport – in total … … … … … … …


Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)




4. Characteristics of bus transport

passenger traffic in Russia

…

4.1.3 Length of automobile roads

The total length of the Russian road network of federal, regional and local roads in the end

of 2009 was estimated to be … kilometers, which is not enough for a country like Russia

(compared to the length of highways in the USA - … million km, India - … million km). More

or less the road network is formed in the European part of Russia. Here, the network has a

radial structure: most of the roads go in different directions from Moscow, which is

convenient to travel from / to Moscow, but uncomfortable for all other cases.


Fig. 1. Length of roads in Russia, including public and institutional ones in 2002 -

2009, in thousands of kilometers

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009





Fig. 2. Length of roads in Russia, including paved roads in 2002-2009, in

thousands of kilometers

The longest roads are in the … Federal District (…% of the total length of roads) and the …

Federal District (…%). The least-developed road networks are in the … Federal District (…%)

and the … Federal District (…%).


Fig. 3. Length of roads in Russia by Federal Districts, in %

…

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009




10. Cost indicators for passenger

traffic in Russia

10.2. The cost of transportation of passengers

… Of course, the most expensive are the air and rail types of transportation, although the cost

of … transport exceeds the cost of… transport 1.5 times (as of 2009). The third place

belongs to … transportation. The costs for all modes of transport for the period from 2005 to

2010 are presented below.

Table 2. The cost of transportation of passengers in 2005 - 2010, in billions of

RUR

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Rail … … … … … …

Sea … … … … … …

Inland waterways … … … … … …

Automobile … … … … … …

Air … … … … … …

Tram … … … … … …

Trolleybus … … … … … …

Subway … … … … … …






Fig. 4. The cost of transportation of passengers in the Russian Federation by

the main types of transport in 2005 - 2010, in billions of RUR

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010




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Ib demo russia passenger transportation market. analysis and forecast to 2017_ may 2012

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