Ian Pearson Ppt

8/3/2019 Ian Pearson Ppt

1/46

Ian Pearson

A trip to the future


2/46

Economic problems?

But most people are still in work and a spending

backlog is growing so recovery could be swift

1.3Tn UK debt (200k per high rate taxpayer) will

take decades to pay off.

With poor management practices and inefficientcompanies purged, and society having re-appraisedcore values, the future might be pretty good.

Background growth potential is still there with new

tech and new markets coming, and the crisis willaccelerate transition to a better economy


3/46

Accelerating business lifehow can we recover a sensible work-life balance?

Faster andFaster

YouYour Competitors

You cant capture market share by working

harder since your competitors are too


4/46

Population churn

Immigration

Re-migration

Emigration

Brain drain

Ageing workforce Inter-generational

conflict

Mobility and

volatility

Will this lead to retirement home UK & Ireland?


5/46

Inter-generational conflict

Ageing population and increasing life-spanswill cause big pensions problem

Fewer young people will have to pay moretaxes

They will also see older people holding mostpolitical power

The able young might emigrate Remigration of immigrant populations as their

homelands get richer Retirement home UK could be left with the

old, the unemployed and the unskilled


6/46

The web is now past critical mass

2000 2005 2010 2015

Web presence

Dot coms

Portals

Socialising/dating

Virtual

environments

Customer based value

Mash sites

Personal sites & blogs

Semantic web

Kick off zone

On-line games

If it wont work now, it never will!


7/46

AI & Robotics

Human

MachineHuman

Machine

Today

Tomorrow

The information economy will

move into the machine world.

Far future


8/46

OB1 - optical brain mk1

A conscious computer

1 trillion neurons in 100ml gel

1 billion times more powerful than brain, with up to2 million emotions & unlimited senses

Could be fully sentientCould be benign or malicious

Can be linked to other devices via the net

Optical hormone

Gel

Sensory stimulus

sensory

encoding

playback

Sensory

echoInternal sensing

neural vortex

generation

Neuralresponse

Neural interference

processing vortex


9/46

Smart bacteriacould exist in both real world and cyberspace

Molecular circuitry

assembled by cell1 micron

Bacteria linked together via infrared, to make

sophisticated self organising circuits

Custom

DNA


10/46

Care economy

Value of

physical/intellectual

work

Value of

community &social

wellbeing

timeMore face to face interaction, needing emotional and human skills

This may favour women and older people. Companies need to adapt

to work more closely with the community.


11/46

Revaluation of human skills

Today, people often work as smart machines

Tomorrow, they will have to focus on

interpersonal skills

Interpersonal skills increase as people age,allowing older people to do useful work

We will see more status for women too


12/46

Skills for the job

the feminisation of workAgricultural Age

Strength

Dexterity

Hunting

FightingNavigation

Team Working

Industrial Age

Strength

Dexterity

Engineering

FightingPolitical

Intellect

Management

Leadership

Information Age

Engineering

Global politics

Peacekeeping

Intellect

Creativity

Design

Management

Administration

LeadershipMarketing & sales

Networking

HR

Care Age

Caring

Networking

Human interfacing

Community

Empathy

Counselling

Peacekeeping

Leadership

MotivationMarketing & sales

Creativity


13/46

Future office

AI and robotics will change the wholenature of work and society

People will focus on interpersonalservices, much of it face to face, so we

will need more meeting facilities

Other work can be done from home ortelework centres, binding localcommunities together


14/46

Telework centre

This futuristic view is out of date already. We will actually

need more meeting places and fewer computers. Centres will

double as both work and social places.


15/46

Any questions yet?


16/46

Maslows hierarchy of needs:

Where the value is

Physiological

Safety/Security

Social

Esteem

Selfactualisation

Physiological

Safety/Security

Social

Esteem

Self actualisation

Fastest market growth is at the top of the

hierarchy, heading already towards care economy


17/46

Business will change faster

You should not focus on being

best-in-class. You need agility.

Optimisation is only a good

strategy in a stable environment.

Company structures are

changing fastElite wont want to be

employees

Ageing workforce


18/46

Increasing regulation

Increasing focuson quality of life

Technology

change

Industry

convergence

Need to control

pressures onenvironment

Increasing

socialengineering

Ongoing

globalisationMore potential

to exploit

Improving

surveillancecapability


19/46

Winners and losers

Centralised manufacturingHigh Street shops

Knowledge based jobsBricklaying/plumbing etc

Administration

ArchitectureDriving

Machine operationCompanies

Finance

AgentsIT

Energy production

Desktop manufacturingTry-on outlets

Human skill based jobsModular prefab construction

Personal services

Virtual world designAdvice/Counselling

CaringEntertainment, sport, arts

Freelancing

Social organisationsHealth care

RegulationLaw


20/46

More winners and losers

RealFull time work

Traditionally male jobsGlobal food production

Music industry

Content salesSpeed and agility

Middle ageOff the shelf

Unskilled work

Highly skilled work

Virtual/dualMultiple employers

Traditionally female jobsLocal food production

Direct music sales

Loss leader for experienceExperience and wisdom

Older peoplePersonalisation

Personality based work

Consultancy and guidance


21/46

Creative remuneration

2005 2010 2015 2020

Globalisation reduces

most people to a

commodity

the elite really

understand what thehuman market wants

Machine intelligenceerodes the value of most

commodity level skills

Top 1%

Bottom 99%

Rapidly growing

design-differentiated

marketPay


22/46

Globalisation

2005 2010 2015 2020

Care economy

Machine

intelligence

changes nature ofwork.

Brazil, Russia, India & China are rising, but the

information economy wont last for ever

2025

Increasingly fierce competition

from high education, low wageeconomies

Work dominated by

face to faceinteraction so cant

be done remotely


23/46

Environment: Be concerned but

Dont Panic

2005 2010 2015 2020

Global average

wealth Technology (will probablysave the day, but no guarantee)

Environmental quality

Expect many new technologies to help, but human footprint

increases even faster as nations develop economically.

Increasing environmental activism will often make things

worse


24/46

Transport sustainabilitywe need more advanced tech, not to go backwards

Technology level

Sustainability

& quality of

life

Slow, dirty,

expensive &

inefficient

Slow, dirty,

dangerous,expensiveFast, clean,

cheap

safe, efficient

0-60 in 4s,quiet, zero

emissions


25/46

Mobility

Electronically driven cars operated as publicfleets could provide high social inclusivity andmobility while greatly reducing congestion,

accidents, and carbon emissions.

You would simply ask the computer for a carto somewhere and it would pick you up andtake you there safely and efficiently, just like a

taxi, but without the driver.


26/46

Solar Farming

Sahara: 9M sq km Solar power = 8.5kWh/

sq m/day at 12%efficiency

Over 600TW capability Total human usage

today = 13.5TW

The Sahara alone couldsupply 40x more energythan we need for thewhole planet

Hydrogen

Electricity

Solar farms

Supercables


27/46

Global land management

FoodEnergy

Physical

infrastructure

HousingNature

With increasingglobal wealth, we

need to makemuch more effort

to use limited

land on the basisof global needs.

i.e. use farmland

to grow food and

desert for energy

Abandon biofuels


28/46

Technology progress gives us

more function for less resource

But it isnt over

yet!!!


29/46

Rapid obsolescence

Device size

and power

consumption

Number of

devices

timeThe faster we go through the obsolescence cycle, the

smaller the overall environmental impact

Impact = device population x device impact

fast

slow


30/46

Electronic jewellery

Identification,security

Social status

Digital image

augmentation

Communication,

data distribution

Sensing

Medical

monitoring,

alarms

Anyform

Networking

Decoration

Tribal signalling

Digital bubble

Mobile

website

Miniaturisation will bring everyday IT down to lapel-pin size. Combinations of

devices can monitor and relay a wide variety of data.


31/46

Any more questions?


32/46

Jewellery nets

Direct inter-device networking will become animportant alternative internet platform

Wireless LAN link to web

and between clusters

Wireless links


33/46

Digital bubble

Digital bubbles will

change how people

network and socialise byenabling intelligent

exchange of appropriate

information and filtering

out junk


34/46

34

Permanent layerMid-term layerTransfer layerDetachable layer

Wearable layer

Active skin

SkinEpidermis

Dermis

Skin-based electronics can link blood

chemistry and nerve signals toexternal computers and systems

Even thought

recognition isstarting to

appear now

Emotiv Epoc headset

for computer games


35/46

Display evolution

Will also see lots of very large wall displays, coffee table

displays, digital windows, recipe tablets etc. All context aware.

80 inch display, 180


36/46

Active contact lens(Pearson 1991)

laser

focusing

micromirror

retina

lasers

Gaze direction sensor

Micromirror Inductive

powersupply

Processing

Comms

& ctrl

Laser Laser

Laser

Gaze

directionsensor

Diamond

substrate Resolution limited by the eye Allows natural distance perception Tiny environmental footprint


37/46

Virtual worldsadding value to the real world

Nervous system links will

give a full sensoryexperience


38/46

Duality

People and buildings canemit an interactive digitalaura over wireless LANs

This gives a dualappearance Can blend games into real

world

You can choose how youappear

Everyone can see theworld differently

Fight off aliens while yourpartner chooses an outfit.


39/46

Digital mirror, active make-up

Can show

yourself as you

want to be seen,not as you are

You can choose

how each person

sees you

Can be used with

active makeup, tochange look all

through the day


40/46

The new high street

M&S WH Smith DixonsPhysical

NextAmazon

eBayWaterstones

Dabs

Locationbased overlay

Amazon

FroogleTesco

eBay

You?

Full web

presence


41/46

Virtuous circle for web

development

Improvinginterfaces &

displays

Ease of use

Ubiquity

Now default

platform

Cross gadget

integration

More social

entrepreneurs

High speed

mobility &

positioning


42/46

Socio-

politicalPower

Domains

Geographic

World Cyberspace

Local

govt

Community

Networks

Global

government

Network

Communities

Geographic

tribalism

Values

tribalism

Social world

Tribalism is built in

to human nature

and fits the web

perfectly. Expectpolitical platforms

to migrate onto the

web, where grass-

roots power can be

mobilised quickly.


43/46

Country A

Country B

Country C

Cybercommunity X

CybercommunityY

Cybercommunity Z

Real World Cyberspace

Future power will be web based

Global pressuregroups will be able

to apply pressureinstantaneously,

using billions of

peoples economicand IT muscle.

Will it be grass

roots democracy or

mob rule?


44/46

The Stepford Societymaking it almost impossible for generally law-

abiding people to commit an offence

Speed limits built into car management system

Anti-techbacklash

Criminals will just ignore these systems, using stolen phones, LCD plates, ID theft

Criminals will have total freedom, we will have none

Tax enforcement via integrated databases

Identity cards

Face recognition systems

DNADatabases

Road tolling via satellite tracking

Speed cameras everywhere

25% of the worlds CCTV

One stop shop for all government data

Extensive monitoring of all electronic activity

Abuse of Millimetre wave cameras

Government knows everywhere you go

Extensive & permanent police records

Monitoring of e-cash

Number-plate recognition


45/46

Privacy

Surveillance is already very intense, especially in the UK,

but people are getting increasingly upset about the

erosion of privacy and freedom

If there is a backlash against it, you dont want your

company to be on the wrong side of the fence


46/46

[email protected]

www.futurizon.com

Thank you

Ian Pearson Ppt

Documents

Transcript of Ian Pearson Ppt