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IAEA’s Nuclear Security
Programs and the Relationship
Between Safeguards and Security
Dr. George M. Moore
June 5, 2013
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What are we discussing?
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IPOL 8552 A Nuclear Trafficking What is “Nuclear Security?”
• AdSec definition—
The prevention and detection of, and response to, theft, sabotage, unauthorized access, illegal transfer or other malicious acts involving nuclear material, other radioactive substances or their associated facilities.
• Nuclear Security Fundamentals
1.1 Nuclear security focuses on the prevention of, detection of, and response to, criminal or
intentional unauthorized acts involving or directed at nuclear material, other radioactive material,
associated facilities, or associated activities. Other acts determined by the State to have an adverse impact on nuclear security should be dealt with appropriately.
1.2. Nuclear security and nuclear safety have in common the aim of protecting persons, property,
society and the environment. Security measures and safety measures have to be designed and
implemented in an integrated manner to develop synergy between these two areas and also in a way that security measures do not compromise safety and safety measures do not compromise security.
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IPOL 8552 A Nuclear Trafficking
• Threats
• A nuclear explosive device – Theft of device
– Theft of material to make a device
• Radiological Dispersal Device – Theft of radioactive material
• Sabotage for dispersal
– A nuclear facility/location
– Transport
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IPOL 8552 A Nuclear Trafficking
• Major Nuclear Security Activities
– Physical Security of nuclear material and other
radioactive material
– Detection and Response to materials out of
regulatory control
– Nuclear Security Capacity Building in Member
States
– Nuclear Security Information and Training
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Nuclear Security Series
Published guidance (“Bottom-up approach”)
o In response to urgent needs; 20 Security Guidance documents published, many more in development
Establishing a structured nuclear security framework
• “Nuclear Security Fundamentals
– 12 Essential Elements of Nuclear Security
• Recommendations; concepts and principles “the what”
one or the three is INFCIRC/225/Rev.5.
• Technical guidance; “how to”
• Performance based approach, to allow flexible implementation
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IPOL 8552 A Nuclear Trafficking
Nuclear Security’s Legal Framework
• The legal framework for nuclear security
comprises international instruments and recognized principles that are implemented by national authorities
• There is no single international instrument that addresses nuclear security in a comprehensive manner. The relevant binding and non-binding instruments may overlap, but also may have coverage gaps.
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Binding International Agreements • Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear
Material and the 2005 Amendment
• Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
(NPT) • Safeguards Agreements between the IAEA and States
Required in Connection with the NPT • Convention on Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident
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International Conventions • International Convention for the Suppression of
Terrorist Bombings (UNGA Resolution 52/164, Annex) (1997)
• International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of
Nuclear Terrorism (UNGA Resolution 59/290) (2005)
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United Nations Security Council Resolutions
• 1373 (2001),Threats to international peace and security
caused by terrorist acts • 1540 (2004), Non-proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction
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Non-Binding Agreements • INFCIRC 225/ Rev 5
• Code of Conduct for Safety and Security of Radioactive
Sources • Nuclear Security Fundamentals, Recommendations, and
Implementing Guides • Safety Standards
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Nuclear Security Recommendations on Physical Protection
of Nuclear Material and Nuclear Facilities (IAEA Nuclear
Security Series no. 13) (INFCIRC/225/Revision 5)
• Intended to apply to the physical protection of nuclear
material in use, storage and transport, whether domestic
or international and whether peaceful or military (??--
including protection of nuclear facilities and nuclear
material against sabotage)
• Definition of nuclear material: Material listed in Table
1, in Section 4 of this publication, including the material
listed in its footnotes.
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Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material
(INFCIRC/274/Rev. 1)
• In force since 8 February 1987
• 148 Parties • The CPPNM has a threefold scope of application: the
physical protection of nuclear material during international transport; the criminalisation of offences; and international cooperation and information exchange
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• The CPPNM applies to nuclear material used for peaceful purposes while in international nuclear transport (Article 2.1).
• With the exception of the provisions relating to physical protection (Articles 3, 4 and 5.3), the CPPNM also applies to nuclear material used for peaceful purposes while in domestic use, storage and transport (Article 2.2).
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The remaining provisions of the CPPNM apply both to nuclear material used for • peaceful purposes while in international transport and to
nuclear material used for • peaceful purposes while in domestic use, storage and
transport (Article 2.2).
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Those provisions relate to:
• co-operation and assistance in the event of theft, robbery or any other unlawful taking of nuclear material or of credible threat thereof with a view, among other things, to the recovery of unlawfully taken nuclear material (Article 5.1 and 2);
• protection of the confidentiality of information (Article 6);
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• making specified acts involving nuclear material punishable offences under national law and the establishment of jurisdiction over such offences (Articles 7 & 8) (e.g., theft, embezzlement or threat to use nuclear material to cause death/serious injury to any person or substantial property damage); and
• the prosecution or extradition of alleged offenders and the provision of assistance by States Parties in connection with criminal proceedings relating to such offences (including the supply of evidence necessary for the proceedings) (Articles 9-14).
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Under the provisions that apply only to nuclear material used for peaceful purposes while in international nuclear transport, States Parties are required:
to ensure that, during international transport, nuclear material is protected at the
levels described in Annex I as applicable to the categories of nuclear material set out in Annex II (Article 3);
not to export or import, or authorize the export or import of, nuclear material unless
assurances have been received that the nuclear material will, during international transport and storage incidental to such transport, be protected at the levels described in Annex I (Article 4); and
to co-operate and consult with a view to obtaining guidance on the design,
maintenance and improvement of systems of physical protection of nuclear material in international transport (Article 5.3).
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The remaining provisions of the CPPNM apply both to nuclear material used for peaceful purposes while in international transport and to nuclear material used for peaceful purposes while in domestic use, storage and transport (Article 2.2). Those provisions relate to: co-operation and assistance in the event of theft, robbery or any other unlawful taking of
nuclear material or of credible threat thereof with a view, among other things, to the recovery of unlawfully taken nuclear material (Article 5.1 and 2);
protection of the confidentiality of information (Article 6);
making specified acts involving nuclear material punishable offences under national law and the establishment of jurisdiction over such offences (Articles 7 & 8) (e.g., theft, embezzlement or threat to use nuclear material to cause death/serious injury to any person or substantial property damage); and
the prosecution or extradition of alleged offenders and the provision of assistance by States Parties in connection with criminal proceedings relating to such offences (including the supply of evidence necessary for the proceedings) (Articles 9-14).
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IPOL 8552 A Nuclear Trafficking
Code of Conduct
• Material covered could be an important source for use in RDDs and sabotage of facilities containing covered material could lead to harmful releases of radioactive materials and/or radiation
• However, Code coverage is limited to radioactive sources, defined as follows:
“radioactive source” means radioactive material that is permanently sealed in a capsule or closely bonded, in a solid form and which is not exempt from regulatory control. It also means any radioactive material released if the radioactive source is leaking or broken, but does not mean material encapsulated for disposal, or nuclear material within the nuclear fuel cycles of research and power reactors.
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IPOL 8552 A Nuclear Trafficking
• Thus coverage is arguably limited to sealed sources of solid form material (and their leakage)—leaving many potential RDD materials not covered by the Code
• Code does not provide physical security guidance in the manner of INFCIRC/225. Such guidance is being provided by the Nuclear Security series of documents
• Another coverage issue with the Code is its limitation to Category 1, 2, and 3 sources
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IAEA Categorization Table
Category Practice Activity Ratio A/D
1 RTG’s; Irradiators;
Teletherapy; Gamma Knife
A/D>1000
2 Gamma radiography
Brachytherapy (HDR/MDR)
1000>A/D>10
3 Fixed industrial gauges (e.g.: level, dredger, conveyor gauges)
Well logging
10>A/D>1
4 Brachytherapy (LDR except eye
plaques & perm implants)
Portable gauges; Static
eliminators; Bone densitometers
1>A/D>0.01
5 Brachytherapy (eye pl. & perm
implants); XRF; ECD
0.01>A/D>Exempt/D
A = source activity; D = radionuclide-specific “dangerous” activity
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IPOL 8552 A Nuclear Trafficking
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IPOL 8552 A Nuclear Trafficking
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Illicit Trafficking
Database (ITDB) System
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The New Name—the same initials--Incident and Trafficking Database (ITDB): Incidents of nuclear and other radioactive material out of regulatory control
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ITDB Quick
Review
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ITDB System- What It Is
• Established in 1995
• Unique network of points of
contact connecting over 122
states and several
international organizations
• Information collected from
official sources
supplemented by open-
source reports
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ITDB membership Members and Non-members
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ITDB membership Members and Non-members
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ITDB work flow
National
Competent
Authorities
ITDB Point
of Contact INF ITDB
Confirmed
State POCs
International
organizations
IAEA
ITDB
Pending Open sources
INF’s, Reports, WebITDB
Verification
request
NUSEC - ITDB
Restricted Area
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Current Trends
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Incidents Reported Where Incident Occurred in the
Year of Report
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Looking at the Data with a Simple “Scientific”
Method
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Reporting Issues- What It Isn’t
The analysis is wrong for at least two reasons
• Delayed reporting
• Inconsistent reporting criteria
• Failure to report?
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Looking at the Data with a Simple “Scientific”
Method
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Incidents Reported Where Incident Occurred in the
Year of Report
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IPOL 8552 A Nuclear Trafficking
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IPOL 8552 A Nuclear Trafficking
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IPOL 8552 A Nuclear Trafficking
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A Check from Open Source Reporting
• What happens when IAEA data is compared
with open source reporting?
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Failure to Report?
• Do these results indicate a failure to report?
• Are there predictors that would indicate an
expected number of reports per year for a
state?
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Conclusions- What It Isn’t
• Given the delayed reporting effect, end of year
summaries are not too useful
• We can account for inconsistent reporting
criteria in analysis if we understand them
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What Can Be Learned?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Group III
Group II Adjusted
Group I
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Conclusions- What Can Be
Learned?
• Quantitative trend reporting may not nearly
as important as Qualitative reporting of
trends
– Example- “Hostage Taking,” or Theft for
Ransom
– Example- Border return reports
– Example-worth of conventional
police/security work
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Conclusions- What Can Be
Learned?
• What we are really interested in is the
“Actual” rate of Illicit Trafficking Incidents
– Detection
– Reporting
– We know few of the relevant factors
• Therefore, what is the relation between “Actual” and
Reported
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HEU and Plutonium
Incidents
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Uranium enrichment terms
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
100
Natural Uranium (.7%)
Reactor Grade, Fuel (2-5%) Low Enriched
Uranium (LEU)
Highly
Enriched
Uranium
(HEU)
Weapon Grade Uranium (~90%)
Various types of reactors, such as some
research reactors and naval propulsion
reactors
use enrichments from natural to
approximately 90%
Higher enrichment less needed for a
given yield, possible to design
in smaller size, less HE needed
Depleted Uranium (~.4%) D-38 or DU
U235 % Enrichment Graphics on this slide are courtesy of
DHS/Nuclear Assessment Program
(NAP)
20%
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HEU Incidents
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Plutonium Incidents
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So, How Does Nuclear
Security Relate to
Safeguards??
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The Three “S”s
• Security
• Safety
• Safeguards
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Safety and Security of Radioactive Material
SAFETY SECURITY
Failure of legal control
· Lack of regulatory
infrastructure
· Lack of proper inventory
· Inadequate physical
protection
Intentional
Damage
· Sabotage
Acquisition
· Theft
· Illegal purchase
· Legal purchase
Malicious motive
· Terrorism
· Individual’s intent to
harm other(s)
Financial Motive
· Illegal sale for profit
· Avoidance of cost of
ownership
· Extortion
Failure of legal control
· Lack of regulatory
infrastructure
· Lack of proper inventory
· Inadequate physical
protection
Inadvertent loss or damage
· Misplaced
· Forgotten
· Accidents
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Nuclear Security Perspective
Safeguards
Safety Security
Safeguards
Safety Security
• Nuclear Safeguards – Non-proliferation
• Nuclear Security – Counter Terrorism
• Nuclear Safety – Technical Accident Prevention
Synergistic approach
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IPOL 8552 A Nuclear Trafficking
• The only overlap is with “nuclear material”