IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 1 Satellite Observation Usage for Global Biomass...

IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 1

Satellite Observation Usage for Global Biomass Burning Emission Monitoring in GMES

Johannes W. Kaiser

contributions from: A. Hollingsworth , S. Serrar, R. Engelen, M.G. Schultz,

C. Textor, M. Sofiev, J.-M. Gregoire

Introduction Fire Observations Emission Monitoring Conclusions Related Developments in GEMS Summary


Global Wildfire Distribution


Total annual burned area estimated at 3.5 million km2

> 600,000 burn scars detected% of burned area in the year 2000 in six continents

16.0%

13.6%

1.1%

64.3%

3.2%

1.8%

Australasia

Asia incl. Russia

Europe

Africa

South America

North Americaincl. C. America

[Tansey et al., Climatic Change 2004]

Total annual burned area estimated at 3.5 106 km2> 600,000 burn scars

Global fire activity (GBA2000)


Annual fire emissions, averaged over the 1997 – 2004 period

Van der Werf et al. (ACPD 2006)


Diurnal Variability

need temporal resolution of a few hours

(Justice et al. 2002)

TRMMMODIS Terra

fit to diurnal cycle

MODIS Aqua


Fire Emission Significance


Biomass Burning (BB) Emissions …

AIR QUALITY: … can dominate regional air quality in “severe air pollution” events … can elevate background of atmospheric pollutant after long range

transport [Stohl et al. 2001, Forster et al. 2001, Andreae et al. 2001]POLLUTION CONTROL: … significantly contributes to global budgets of several gases

Kyoto, CLRTAP, …WEATHER: (absorbing aerosols) … influences the radiative energy budget [Konzelmann et al., JGR 1996] … provides cloud condensation nuclei [Andreae et al., Science 2004] Heat release accelerates deep convection. [Damoah et al., ACP 2006]REMOTE SENSING: … affects essential a priori information for remote sensing (AOD, profiles)CHALLENGE: … are highly variable on all time scales from hours to decades

NOAA, 2005-12-11


Interannual Variability


CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e GuianaGuiana

10 km

CO CO – – COCO22

300 ppb

Short-term Variability: CO, CO2

(courtesy M. Andreae, MPI Mainz)


CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e GuianaGuiana

10 km

CO CO – – COCO22

300 ppb

Short-term Variability: CO, O3

(Andreae et al. 2001)

(produced by INPE/CPTEC, courtesy of M. Andreae, MPI Mainz) [Freitas et al. 2005]


SIGNIFICANCE for Land Monitoring

Wildfires represent a significant sink for the terrestrial carbon pools.

Wildfire behaviour characterises land cover types with repeated fire events.

typical fire repeat periodtypical fire intensitytypical fire seasonality…

Wildfires can change the land cover type reversiblytropical deforestation…


Project Context


HALO – GMES Specific Support Action (SSA)

Harmonised coordination of Atmosphere, Land and Ocean integrated projects of the GMES backbone (1/2/2004 – 1/1/2007)

geoland (1/1/2004 - 1/2/2007) Global and regional observatories & core services

MERSEA (1/4/2004 – 1/4/2008) Global to coastal scale models, EO and in-situ data assimilation and

modelling GEMS (1/3/2005 - 1/3/2009)

Global greenhouse and reactive gases, global aerosol and regional air pollution, EO-data assimilation and modelling

HALO aims at formulating agreed recommendations to GAC and IPs Scientific thematic analysis of links:

• Direct product exchange, unaccomplished data demands, common data Coordinated solutions to infra-structure in operational mode

• Candidate solutions by Alcatel and Astrium


Objectives of GEMS

Global operational system combining “all” available remotely sensed and in-situ data to monitor the 3D distributions of key atmospheric trace constituents

Regional Air Quality: initial & boundary conditions for operational regional air-quality models

Retrospective Analysis for the ENVISAT-EOS era

Estimation of sources, sinks and transports for greenhouse gases and aerosol


ReactiveGases

Greenhouse

Gases

AerosolRegional

Air Quality

GEMS organisation in 6 sub-projects

Validation

greenhousegases

reactivegases

regional air qualityaerosols


GEMS Fire Observation Requirements

Product Types:amount emitted: aerosol, trace gases (~30% accuracy) locationtime injection height profile

Availability:global~25 km spatial resolutionseveral hours time resolution near-real time and retrospectively covering many years

(>8a)


Fire Observations


Two types of fire products accessible from Earth obs. systems

Area burnt

- Burnt area- Burnt pixel- Burnt scar

BURNT AREA product

Fire front- Active fire- Hot spot- Fire pixel- Fire count

ACTIVE FIRE product

OBSERVATIONSYSTEM

• thermal emission, MIR• only during fire

• spectrally flat• BRDF flat• dark• only after fire


SPECTRUM [Zhukov et al., DLR 2005]


BURNT AREA products + quantification+ location– no info on time– not available in NRT

ACTIVE FIRE Products+ near-real time (NRT)+ time (& location)– quantification

LEO satellites: + global coverage and higher spatial resolution, – but sparse temporal coverage

GEO satellites:+ high temporal resolution,– low spatial coverage and spatial resolution

Available fire products from satellites

IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 23 Boschetti et al., 2004

acitve fire: - World Fire Atlas (WFA)

burnt area: - GLOBSCAR- GBA2000

Inter-comparison of 3 global fire products

Large differences between products


GLOBCARBON Global Burnt Area Estimate

(courtesy of Olivier Arino)


Observation System: Current Fire Products


Emission Monitoring


traditional:

Fire Radiative Power (FRP): M(…) = FRP * time * scaling factor * emission factor(…)

M (…) = Area . Biomass . Burning efficiency. Emission factor

Globe: ~ 400 millions hectares burnt in 2000Med. Basin: ~ 500000 hectares

Dry tropical grass savanna: ~ 2 tons/hectareMoist tropical savanna: ~ 10 tons/hectareBoreal forest: ~ 20 tons/hectareMoist tropical forest: ~ 40 tons/hectare

~ 25% forest -- ~ 80% savannaWoodland & forests~ 1600 g CO2 / kg biomassGrasslands~ 1700 g CO2 / kg biomass

Fuel: T. ha-1 ????

“pixels” burnt per vegetation type

Area burnt per vegetation type: ha

OBSERVATION SYSTEM:Calculating Emission Amounts


Several Inventories Exist


Current NRT Fire Emission Monitoring Systems

RAMS model at INPE/CPTEC Assimilation of WF_ABBA product from GEOS satellites Delivers CO and aerosol emissions over the Americas

NRL/NAAPS aerosol model in the FLAMBE project Additionally assimilates the MODIS active fire product Delivers global aerosol emissions


Applications of the GOES Wildfire ABBA in Modeling Programs

Real-time Assimilation at the University of Sao Paulo and CPTEC/INPE into the RAMS model

Point Sources for 13 August 2002

RAMS CO Product

RAMS PM2.5 Product

GOES-8 WF_ABBA Fire Product

Real-time Assimilation into the Naval Research LaboratoryNavy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS)

GOES WF_ABBA Fire Product22 August 2003 at 17:45 UTC

NAAPS Smoke Optical Depth22 August 2003 at 18:00 UTC

GOES-8 ABBA Fire and MACADA Cloud Products Used in Study to Model and Predict Future Fire Activity at UNH

Collaboration with Univ. of New Hampshire Inst. for Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space

Other Modeling Efforts and Collaborations

Climate Modeling at NASA/GSFC: Assimilation into the GOCART model

Real-time Air Quality Modeling at NASA/Langley: Real-time assimilation into the RAQMS model as part of IDEA (Infusing satellite Data into Environmental Applications) Fire Emissions and Regional Air Quality Modeling at NCAR: Assimilation into the U.S. EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality model in support of the 2002 SMOCC campaign in Brazil

Intermediate Deforestation ScenarioPredicted increase in futureregional fire activity: 22%

Complete Deforestation ScenarioPredicted increase in future regional fire activity: 123% N

um

ber

of

Fir

e P

ixel

s


Fire Radiative Power (FRP)

produced from MODIS and SEVIRI directly proportional to emission

[Icho

ku 2

005]

[Woo

ster

200

5]


Some Conclusions


Some Conclusions on Existing Fire Emission Models

No global operational system exists.

(Some) severe events of pollution with aerosol and CO can be monitored and forecast with observations of fires only.

It is possible.Fire EO input is essential.

High temporal frequency of fire observations is important.


Some Conclusions on Fire Products

No current product satisfies all requirements.LEO spatial coverage/resolution complements GEO temporal

resolution.Hot spots (tropical forest) complement burnt area products.

[C. Michel et al., JGR 2005]need regionalised approach

Many existing products are inconsistent. [Boschetti et al. 2004]Several new operational products are anticipated.

Fire Radiative Power from SEVIRI + global (M. Wooster) WF_ABBA from global GEO system (E. Prins) Burnt Area from MODIS (D. Roy) Burnt Area from VEGETATION 2000-2006 (GDBAv1) Burnt Area from GEOLAND (BAG)


GFAS Proposal A Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) is needed to combine

several fire observations land cover products meteorological conditions a numerical model of

fire activity.

Such a system can provide the required fire input for the GMES atmosphere and land monitoring systems.

“Expression of Interest” formulated supported by 30+ scientist from 30+ institutions communicated to the EU in March


Related Developments in GEMS


Preliminary Global Approach for Reanalysis

use fire emission inventory GFEDv2 as dummy for future GFAS. It combines [van der Werf et al., ACP 2006] MODIS hot spot observations CASA vegetation model driven by observed fPAR, PAR.

1. obtain custom version of GFEDv2 with 8-day time resolution

2. conversions to GRIB format

3. include fire emissions in IFS

4. compare forecasts with / without fire emissions

5. compare both to observed time series

6. compare the difference to fuel load changes in CASA


CO2 Fire Emission on 20 Aug 2003 12UTC [g/m2/month] (GFEDv3-8d)


CO2 Model Field with Fires @ 500hPa [ppm]


Excess CO2 due to Fires I [ppm]


Excess CO2 due to Fires II [ppm]


Regional PM2.5 Emission by Fire Modelled in NRT from MODIS FRP (M. Sofiev, FMI)


Summary


SUMMARYWildfire, aka Biomass Burning (BB), emissions are needed

globally in near-real time as well as in consistent multi-year time series.

No suitable BB emission product is available. Principal shortcomings are accuracy, delivery time, temporal resolution, geographical coverage.

Various fire observations complement each other.The development of a Global Fire Assimilation System

(GFAS) is needed to serve the GMES requirements.Product generation needs to exploit existing observations

more completely.FRP is very promising due to accuracy of emitted amount

calculation and temporal resolution.Preliminary systems for fire emission modelling in GEMS are

under development.


MORE INFORMATION

www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/HALOwww.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMSwww.gmes-geoland.info [email protected]

This work has been funded by the European Commission through the FP6 projects HALO, GEMS, and GEOLAND.

THANK YOU!

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

IACETH Seminar, Zurich, 2006-09-15 Kaiser et al., 1 Satellite Observation Usage for Global Biomass...

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