I. TECHNOLOGY II. IMPLICATIONS III. SOLUTIONS IV. GLOBALIZATION I. TECHNOLOGY II. IMPLICATIONS III....
-
Upload
dustin-dale-hubbard -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
0
Transcript of I. TECHNOLOGY II. IMPLICATIONS III. SOLUTIONS IV. GLOBALIZATION I. TECHNOLOGY II. IMPLICATIONS III....
Challenges of Challenges of NanotechNanotech
Challenges of Challenges of NanotechNanotech
I. TECHNOLOGY
II. IMPLICATIONS
III. SOLUTIONS
IV. GLOBALIZATION
I. TECHNOLOGY
II. IMPLICATIONS
III. SOLUTIONS
IV. GLOBALIZATION
Mike Treder, Executive DirectorCenter for Responsible Nanotechnology
Mike Treder, Executive DirectorCenter for Responsible Nanotechnology
Senior Associates Gathering May 16, 2004 Palo Alto, California, USA Senior Associates Gathering May 16, 2004 Palo Alto, California, USA
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
I.I. Develop TechnologyDevelop Technology
II.II. Understand ImplicationsUnderstand Implications
III.III. Prepare SolutionsPrepare Solutions
IV.IV. Implement Globally Implement Globally
Challenges of NanotechChallenges of Nanotech
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
I. TECHNOLOGYI. TECHNOLOGY
• Desktop manufacturing is on its way
• Not IF, but HOW SOON
• Gating factor is determination, not feasibility
• Increasing number of routes to get there
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Molecular ToolboxMolecular Toolbox
Nanoscale ElevatorNanoscale Elevator
Nanoscale Conveyor BeltNanoscale Conveyor Belt
Ultra-short Pulsed LaserUltra-short Pulsed Laser
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Technical University of Denmark — a whole lab integrated under an electron microscope
Two manipulators and a turntable, and MEMS tips for the manipulators
They can build 20-nanometer tips on the MEMS tips by using the electron beam to deposit metal atoms
Small enough to move individual molecules around
Lab-on-SEMLab-on-SEM
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
MNT in Russia?MNT in Russia?
• Fixation, displacement and activation of atoms, polymerization, deposition, etching in technological chamber and flexible microreactors
• Efficient seismic and acoustic isolation
• Accuracy of positioning control - 1A
• Step displacement of sample along X,Y axes - 10 mm
• High-speed and wide scanning at range up to 30x30 u and detailed investigation at region less than 1x1 nm
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
CRN Director of Research Chris Phoenix says:CRN Director of Research Chris Phoenix says:
““If I were going to specify If I were going to specify a system for building a system for building the final proto-assembler,the final proto-assembler, it might look quite a it might look quite a lot like this.”lot like this.”
Building a proto-assembler?Building a proto-assembler?
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Manipulation instrument ~ $30K USManipulation instrument ~ $30K US
AFM instrument ~ $6K USAFM instrument ~ $6K US
The Cost FactorThe Cost Factor
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
March 2004: March 2004: Institute of Nanotechnology (makers of above Institute of Nanotechnology (makers of above instruments) and Youth Science Society instruments) and Youth Science Society announce "competition of Russian youth announce "competition of Russian youth projects on domestic projects on domestic MNTMNT development". development".
Will Russia get MNT first?Will Russia get MNT first?
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Rapid BootstrappingRapid Bootstrapping
Basic design by R. Merkle, artwork by K. E. Drexler
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
The NanofactoryThe Nanofactory
• Integrate large numbers of nanoscale chemical fabrication units
• Combine nanoscale pieces into large-scale products
• General-purpose manufacturing in a tabletop format
• Extremely advanced products with compact functionality
• Produce its own weight in hours; produce copies of itself
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Exponential Doubling Exponential Doubling
DAY NANOFACTORIES
1 1 3 2 5 4 7 8 9 16
11 32 13 64 15 128 17 256 19 512 21 1,024 Thousand
Length of Time for Nanofactory ProliferationBased on conservative estimate of two-days doubling time
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Exponential Doubling Exponential Doubling
DAY NANOFACTORIES21 1,024 Thousand25 4,096 29 16,384 33 65,536 37 262,144 41 1,048,576 Million45 4,194,304 49 16,777,216 53 67,108,864 57 268,435,456 61 1,073,741,824 Billion
Length of Time for Nanofactory ProliferationBased on conservative estimate of two-days doubling time
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
I.I. Develop TechnologyDevelop Technology
— — HappeningHappening
II.II. Understand ImplicationsUnderstand Implications
III.III. Prepare SolutionsPrepare Solutions
IV.IV. Implement Globally Implement Globally
Challenges of NanotechChallenges of Nanotech
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
II. IMPLICATIONSII. IMPLICATIONS
Will be transformative — probably disruptive
• Not WHETHER, but HOW MUCH and HOW FAST
• Economists have term: creative destruction
• AKA: unemployment lines
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
U.S. Semiconductor Industry U.S. Semiconductor Industry
• U.S. 2003 Sales = $80 Billion • Worldwide 2003 Sales = $166 Billion• U.S. Jobs = 226,000
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Electronics ProductsElectronics Products
• Retail distribution = almost $300 billion annually in U.S. alone
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Global Steel Industry Global Steel Industry
• Over 200 steel-making companies
• $700 billion in sales
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
More ImplicationsMore Implications
• Environmental damage
• Unstable arms races
• WMD proliferation
• War
• Terrorism
• Universal surveillance
• No privacy
• Intellectual property violation
• Black markets
• Smuggling
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Nano PollutionNano Pollution
Ultimate test for the “Throw-
away
Society”?
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
SurveillanceSurveillance
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Lack of PrivacyLack of Privacy
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Nano WeaponsNano Weapons
Easy to build
Hard to monitor
Easy to deliver
Obsolete almost immediately
Programmable and controllable
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
WMD ProliferationWMD Proliferation
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
TerrorismTerrorism
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Arms RaceArms Race
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
WarWar
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
We need solutions…We need solutions…
And we need them now.And we need them now.
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
I.I. Develop TechnologyDevelop Technology
II.II. Understand ImplicationsUnderstand Implications
III.III. Prepare SolutionsPrepare Solutions
IV.IV. Implement Globally Implement Globally
Challenges of NanotechChallenges of Nanotech
Satisfactory
outcome requires
all four
to be effectively
addressed.
Satisfactory
outcome requires
all four
to be effectively
addressed.
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
I.I. Develop TechnologyDevelop Technology
— — HappeningHappening
II.II. Understand ImplicationsUnderstand Implications
— — Well begunWell begun
III.III. Prepare SolutionsPrepare Solutions — — Barely startedBarely started
IV.IV. Implement Globally Implement Globally — — ZilchZilch
Challenges of NanotechChallenges of Nanotech
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
III. SOLUTIONSIII. SOLUTIONS
• No easy answers!!
• Nanofactory control options
• Global administration network??
• Risks from competitive development
• Single international crash program??
• Avoiding an arms race
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
- Makes black market inevitable
- Manufacture of dangerous products
- Intellectual property violations
- Intellectual property violations
- Manufacture of dangerous products
- Removes incentive for black market
- Prevents alleviation of human suffering
- Hinders creation of prosperity
- Makes black market inevitable
- Allows alleviation of human suffering
- Fosters creation of unprecedented prosperity
- Reduces incentive for black market
Nanofactory Control OptionsNanofactory Control OptionsT
E C
H N
I C
A L
R E
S T
R I
C T
I O
N S
DISTRIBUTION & ACCESS
Loose
Loose
Tight
Tight
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
- Makes black market inevitable
- Manufacture of dangerous products
- Intellectual property violations
- Intellectual property violations
- Manufacture of dangerous products
- Removes incentive for black market
- Prevents alleviation of human suffering
- Hinders creation of prosperity
- Makes black market inevitable
- Allows alleviation of human suffering
- Fosters creation of unprecedented prosperity
- Reduces incentive for black market
Nanofactory Control OptionsNanofactory Control OptionsT
E C
H N
I C
A L
R E
S T
R I
C T
I O
N S
DISTRIBUTION & ACCESS
Loose
Loose
Tight
Tight
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
- Makes black market inevitable
- Manufacture of dangerous products
- Intellectual property violations
- Intellectual property violations
- Manufacture of dangerous products
- Removes incentive for black market
- Prevents alleviation of human suffering
- Hinders creation of prosperity
- Makes black market inevitable
- Allows alleviation of human suffering
- Fosters creation of unprecedented prosperity
- Reduces incentive for black market
Nanofactory Control OptionsNanofactory Control OptionsT
E C
H N
I C
A L
R E
S T
R I
C T
I O
N S
DISTRIBUTION & ACCESS
Loose
Loose
Tight
Tight
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
- Makes black market inevitable
- Manufacture of dangerous products
- Intellectual property violations
- Intellectual property violations
- Manufacture of dangerous products
- Removes incentive for black market
- Prevents alleviation of human suffering
- Hinders creation of prosperity
- Makes black market inevitable
- Allows alleviation of human suffering
- Fosters creation of unprecedented prosperity
- Reduces incentive for black market
Nanofactory Control OptionsNanofactory Control OptionsT
E C
H N
I C
A L
R E
S T
R I
C T
I O
N S
DISTRIBUTION & ACCESS
Loose
Loose
Tight
Tight
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
I.I. Develop TechnologyDevelop Technology
II.II. Understand ImplicationsUnderstand Implications
III.III. Prepare SolutionsPrepare Solutions
IV.IV. Implement Globally Implement Globally
Challenges of NanotechChallenges of Nanotech
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Old WorldOld World
Our lifetimes:
•Cold War
•Berlin Wall
•Space Race
•MAD
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
New WorldNew World
21st Century:
•World wide web
•American empire
•Globalization of science
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Next WorldNext World
In a few years:
•Exponential general-purpose molecular manufacturing
•Wonderful benefits
•Terrible dangers
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Never before has the world faced such a tremendous opportunity —
and never before have the risks been so great.
Earth on the BrinkEarth on the Brink
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Unanswered QuestionsUnanswered Questions
How soon?
How disruptive?
No one knows.
No one knows.
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Who is Interested?Who is Interested?
• People’s Republic of China
• British Royal Society
• U.S. National Science Foundation
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
• ACUNU Millennium Project
• Institute of Nanotechnology — Russia
• Greenpeace International
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Web References to CRNWeb References to CRN
In all these languages…
Arabic, Chinese, Czech, Dutch, French, German, Hungarian, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Persian, Russian, Spanish, Swedish, Turkish, and English.
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
IV. GLOBALIZATIONIV. GLOBALIZATION
• The challenges of nanotechnology will have to be addressed by a diverse collection of people and organizations.
• No single approach will solve all problems or address all needs.
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
IV. GLOBALIZATIONIV. GLOBALIZATION
• The only answer is a collective answer, and that will demand an unprecedented collaboration of leaders in science, technology, business, government, and NGOs.
• It will require participation from people of many nations, cultures, languages, and belief systems.
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
I.I. Develop TechnologyDevelop Technology
II.II. Understand ImplicationsUnderstand Implications
III.III. Prepare SolutionsPrepare Solutions
IV.IV. Implement Globally Implement Globally
Challenges of NanotechChallenges of Nanotech
When and How?
What and When?
Who and What?
What and How?
Satisfactory
outcome (survival?)
requires all four
to be effectively
addressed.
Satisfactory
outcome (survival?)
requires all four
to be effectively
addressed.
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
We must begin now to develop common understanding, create lines of communication, and build a stable structure that will enable humankind to pass safely through the transition into the nano era.
Our Greatest ChallengeOur Greatest Challenge
© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
How You Can HelpHow You Can Help
• Contact your Senators/RepresentativesContact your Senators/Representatives
• Join the Join the C-R-NetworkC-R-Network
• We need contacts, researchers, moneyWe need contacts, researchers, money
Thank you!Thank you!
WEBSITE: www.CRNano.org
EMAIL: [email protected]