I Mediterranean Economic Intelligence Forum by Mourad Preure, President, EMERGY Cabinet
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Transcript of I Mediterranean Economic Intelligence Forum by Mourad Preure, President, EMERGY Cabinet
Energy Scenarios of Mediterranean Sea
Towards an Euro-Mediterranean
Energy Community
M e d i t e r r a n e a n W e e k o f E c o n o m i c L e a d e r sM e d a G r e e n E c o n o m i c S u m m i t
M e d i t e r r a n e a n F o r u m f o r E c o n o m i c I n t e l l i g e n c e
B a r c e l o n a - 2 8 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 4
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Dr Mourad PREURE ( I F P E N S c h o o l )
International Petroleum Expert
President of EMERGY International Strategic Consulting
IPEMED Energy Advisor
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Asymmetrical interdependence in terms of energy between the two shores of the Mediterranean ...
European Commission (2010), EU energy
trends to 2030 — Update 2009, p. 67
20% of gas and 15% of oil consumed in Europe come from North Africa
84% of gas exports and 60% of oil exports from North Africa go to Europe
54% of energy consumption in the EU is provided by suppliers outside the EU.
Energy dependence of the EU could reach 60% by 2020 and 80% in 2030.
The primary energy demand in the SEMC will triple by 2030. 10 million people still lack access to energy ..
Increasing asymmetry. No development dynamics converge
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North Africa : the center of a powerful movement where economic entropy vectors are highly aggravating factors…
Weakness of the productive fabric and inability to generate sufficient jobs to meet population growth
Food dependency and Water Stress
Energy is a stressor for both countries possessing resources and countries dependent on imports for their supplies
Two elements dominate the geopolitics of the Mediterranean energy and asymmetry with Europe
Strong instabilities at work in the MediterraneanSource CNUCED
France 1026
Espagne 537
Italie 364
Portugal 114
Turquie 145
Israël 59
Grèce 52
Egypte 50
Croatie 44
Bulgarie 36
Maroc 32
Tunisie 26
Algérie 11
Foreign direct investment(G $)
Increased prosperity and offsets uneven development between the north and south
GDP is a ratio of 1 to 10 between the North and South
Unemployment rate in North 8-10%, South 20% Tensions today on migration flow Arc of instability in East Mediterranean The Mediterranean is the most active area of economic divide in the world
Economic asymmetries strong instability in the South vs Northern Development
Strong dependence of the South to the North Economic crisis in Europe hit Euro-
Mediterranean countries 51% decrease in FDI while all continents rose,
according to a report by the UNCTAD Potential for spread of the financial crisis
to countries south of the Mediterranean already weakened by political crises.
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The prosperity gap between North and South of the Mediterranean tends to increase ...
GDP/habitant
euros2009
GDP/habitant
2030
Rate of
variation
2009-2030
North 20 000 euros 27 800 +39%
South-West 4 800 euros 8 500 euros +77%
GDP/habitant and rate of variation 2009-2030
Source : OME
Annual
growth
rate of
GDP
1990-2009
Annual
growth rate
of GDP
2009-2030
Annual
growth rate
of
population
2009-2030
NORTH 1,7% 1,9% 0,3%
South
West4% 4% 1,2%
Growth rate of GDP and the population of the countries of the Mediterranean region
(%)
The population in the North is currently 216 million, with a GDP per capita of around € 20,000.
North Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia): 162 million people with a GDP per capita of about 4800 euros. Young population in the South: The average age is north of 41, he is 26 years in the South, one third of the population is under 15 years
6%
51%
19%
4%
18%
2%
Charbon
Produits pétroliers
Gaz
Biomasse
Electricité
Géothermie, solaire, éolien
Source: données OME, AIE
25%
26%
27%
6%5%11%
Source: données OME, AIE
Industrie
Transport
Residentiel
Tertiaire
Agriculture
Usage non énergétique
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Dominance of oil in the energy balance of the South ...
Petroleum products are highly dominant (51%), followed by gas (19%) and electricity (18%), far ahead of coal (6%), biomass (4%) and renewables (2% ) (geothermal, solar and wind).
The South needs to build an additional 200 GW of generating capacity by 2030 to ensure its economic and social development.
capacité
Final Energy consomption by
sector in the SEMC (2008)
Final energy consomption by
product in the SEMC (2008)
Source OME
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We must expect a boom in electricity consumption in the South by 2030...
Les combustibles fossiles représentent
89,5% de la production d’électricité des
PSEM. Les énergies renouvelables (hors
hydraulique) sont encore très marginales
avec 0,5% seulement de cette production.
19%
17%53,5%
10%
0,5%
Source; données OME, AIE
Charbon
Pétrole
Gaz
Hydrologie
Renouvelables
Population pressure and economic growth in the Mediterranean energy demand is
expected to increase by over 40% by 2030. Much of the increase in demand therefore be located in the SEMC.
Demand in the South grow 4-5 times faster than in the North in 2030 to represent nearly 43% of the energy demand of the Mediterranean, against 30% today, the North saw its share fall by 72 to 58%.
Electricity demand in MENA represent 47% in the same horizon against 28% currently.
Gas demand expected to increase significantly and exceed the demand for oil in the next 10 years. Share of gas consumption will reach 36% in 2030.
Increasing Energy Efficiency to curb rising demand
Source OME
Electricity production by product SEMC (2008)
The countries of the Southern Mediterranean have abundant deposits of energy resources mainly with solar energy and to a lesser extent wind energy.
The energy of radiation received per km2 is equivalent to 1.5 million barrels of oil or 300,000 tons of coal.
A southerner now consumes 2,030 kWh and its northern neighbor 6,036 kWh. However, in 2030 the southerner consume twice or 4300 kWh / year.
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The potential of the South: a renewable primary energy in abundance ...
Average sunshine duration (hours /
year
Averageenergy
received(KWh/m2/y
ear)
coastal 2 650 1 700
highlands 3 000 1 800
Sahara(86% of Algeria)
3 500 2650
Algeria has abundant gas resources. This qualifies for leadership in solar hybrid power / gas where the cost per kWh is optimum today
Oil and gas reserves around the (in Gbls)
Mediterranean. 4.6% of world reserves
Oil % Oil Gas % Gas
Iran 138.4 11.2 27.8 15.7
Irak 115.0 9.3 3.17 1.8
Koweït 101.5 8.2 1.78 1.0
Saudi Arabia 264.2 21.3 7.17 4.0
EAU 97.8 7.9 6.09 3.4
Qatar 27.4 2.2 25.6 14.4
ALGERIA 12.3 1 4.52 2.5
Egypt 4.1 0.3 2.06 1.2
Libya 41.5 3.3 1.5 0.8
Tunisia 0.6
Middle East 755.3 61 73.21 41.3
Russia 79.4 6.4 44.65 25.2
Kazakhstan 39.8 3.2 1.9 1.1
Azerbaïdjan 7 0.6 1.28 0.7 9
Source BP St Review
Interest of major projects ENR export like DESERTEC ...
technology transfer,
local manufacture of adequate equipment
export electricity surplus to Europe
For the south coutries…:
Producing countries does not want to exchange their position as an exporter of
oil to the exporter of solar energy
Nuclear Gas Ccgt charbon Wind power
onshore
Solar (PV) Solar (CSP)
USD/kWh 0,098 0 ,092 0,089 0,06 – 0,14* 0,22 -0,27* 0, 17- 0,36*
Durée de vie en
année60 30 40 25 25 25
Standardised costs of kWh Source : OCDE (2008), *IRENA (2012)
Solar kWh is expensive but a sharp decline in its cost is expected in the coming decades, up to 40% lower estimated 2020
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
197
5
197
8
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200
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200
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201
1
MarketedProduction
Consumption
GAZ (Bcm)
The United States: a new player in the European energy game?
U.S. future gas exporter?
USA exports 45 Bcm in 2025 and more than 100 Bcm in 2040
U.S. oil production exceeding Saudi Arabia in 2025? 12 million bpd until 2040 geopolitical impact
Most of this growth will come from non-conventional oil
Power generation with coal fell a quarter in the US while the gas increased by 63%
US coal headed to EuropeMany gas power plants close in Europe. 28 being closed plants in Germany.
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
.19
65
.19
68
.19
71
.19
74
.19
77
.19
80
.19
83
.19
86
.19
89
.19
92
.19
95
.19
98
.20
01
.20
04
.20
07
.20
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Consommation
Production
Oil( mbj)
12© Mourad PREURE 2008
Algerian Gas
Russian Gas
Middle East Gas
United States
Libyan Gas
Gazoduc Nabucco
The European gaslandscape
GNL
NigeriaMozambiqueTanzanie
8%10%
23%
19%
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
Marketed Production
Consumption
Gazoduc Southstream
Gas Dépendancy:55% in201272% in201585% in2030
Gazoduc Northstream
Norway
Continuation of current trends increases the divergence resulting in shifts prosperity, instability and stress migration pressures.
Is not observed neguentropic factors at work, but rather an increase and diffusion of disorder. Economic factors contribute strongly.
Economic power of emerging countries in 2030 equivalent to that of developed countries, Asia = new center of gravity of global growth loss of influence of the Euro-
Mediterranean area in international regulations.
The North African states must develop their domestic demand to increase their productions by developing solvent markets out of low-cost production logics.
Scientific and technological development, renew productive organization coveting the technology-intensive segments of global value chains, out of the mirage of the service sector.
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The Mediterranean is threatened in the future by marginalization and divergence ...
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Towards an Euro-Mediterranean EnergyCommunity…
The increasing energy dependence of Europe can find a structural solution in a Euro-Mediterranean framework.
One can pose the problem in terms of complementarity and interdependence
We must also anticipate strong growth in energy demand and the various strategic alternatives that will be facing the countries of the south shore.The natural gas can be the lever of a new energy partnership
We must design and implement a new partnership based on energy transition.◦ Guarantee the security of the North of supply and security of the South
opportunities.◦ North Africa can become the electric battery of Europe combined fossil
fuels and renewable
Energy can be the regional integration lever such as coal and steel were for European integration.◦ the emergence of industrial and technological champions Euro-
Mediterranean renewable.◦ Densify the industrial and technological cooperation◦ Universities and research in southern countries must be the hearth of
the dynamic
http://mouradpreure.unblog.fr
Prospective, Études Stratégiques et Énergétiques
Communication, Communication de crise, Evènementiel
Intelligence Économique, Knowledge Management
Montage d’Affaires, Formation, Coaching de Dirigeants
www.emergydz.commouradpreure@yahoo/fr
Téléphone/Fax: +213.21.63.19.36
Mobile: 0552.59.33.08
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