I. Scientific Method A. Process

1. Observation• Careful; Include as many parameters as possible• Observations Induction Question Hypothesis

2. Question3. Hypothesis

• Possible cause• Reflect past experience (educated guess)• Multiple (consider alternative explanations)• Testable• Falsifiable

4. Prediction• Hypothesis/Principle Deduction Prediction

5. Experiment• Experimental group, Control group, Replication

6. Results/Interpretation7. Scientific Theory

I. Scientific Method B. Bias

1. Sampling Bias• Our view of the world is conditioned very strongly by the

observational methods we use• Ex: Counting whales vs. bacteria vs. viruses

• Methods vary considerably, depending on the temporal and spatial scales of interest

• Ex: How is global temperature measured? Sea level?2. Assumptions

• Important to recognize inherent assumptions• Ex: 14C dating of wooden artifacts

3. Paradigms• Generally accepted model, conceptual framework or set of

belief(s) about a particular topic• Ex: Dinosaurs went extinct because of global climate

change precipitated by an asteroid• Paradigms may not be permanent

• Can be discarded/replaced by better explanation (paradigm shift)

• Ex: Heliocentric solar system, continental drift• Paradigms may become so entrenched that people ignore

contradictory evidence or modify evidence to match paradigm

IPCC 2007

IPCC 2007

I. Scientific Method B. Bias

1. Sampling Bias• Our view of the world is conditioned very strongly by the

observational methods we use• Ex: Counting whales vs. bacteria vs. viruses

• Methods vary considerably, depending on the temporal and spatial scales of interest

• Ex: How is global temperature measured? Sea level?2. Assumptions

• Important to recognize inherent assumptions• Ex: 14C dating of wooden artifacts

3. Paradigms• Generally accepted model, conceptual framework or set of

belief(s) about a particular topic• Ex: Dinosaurs went extinct because of global climate

change precipitated by an asteroid• Paradigms may not be permanent

• Can be discarded/replaced by better explanation (paradigm shift)

• Ex: Heliocentric solar system, continental drift• Paradigms may become so entrenched that people ignore

contradictory evidence or modify evidence to match paradigm

II. Technology – Developments

A. Observation• Satellite-based sensors• Automated monitoring equipment

• Ex: TAO/TRITON array• Novel technology

• Ex: acoustic instruments• Powerful computers• Real-time communication (fiber, internet, satellite)

B. Communication• Global communication technology • Extensive scrutiny (scientific, non-scientific)• Intense media coverage

C. Mitigation/Alternatives• Emissions control (air, water)• Water purification (desalination, reclamation)

D. Energy• Nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, fuel cells,

ocean (tides, waves, currents)• Transition in energy use: Biomass Coal Oil/Natural

gas & Uranium

World Fuel Production & Energy Use

FUEL 1800 1900 1990

Biomass (6-18 MJ kg-1) 1,000 1,400 1,800

Coal (14-32) 10 1,000 5,000

Oil (42) 0 20 3,000

Uranium (90 million) 0 0 ??

ENERGY 1800 1900 2000

Total 250 800 10,000

Indexed (1900 = 100) 31 100 1,250

McNeill, 2000

Fuel values in millions of metric tons; Energy values in mmt oil equivalent- More energy used in 20th century than all of human history before 1900

II. Technology – Developments

E. Packaging/Processing• Canning• Bottling• Freezing• Freeze drying

F. Global Commerce1. Developments

• Refrigerated long-haul trucks/containers/train cars• Interstate highway & railroad systems• Advances in food processing/storage• Selective breeding/genetic modification

2. Consequences• Increase in tonnage of food shipped internationally

• 898 vs. 200 million tonnes in 2001 vs. 1961• 2000: Wholesale market in Chicago – Average kilogram of

produce traveled >2400 km from farm to plate (25% increase vs. 1980)

• Typical supermarket• 30,000+ items• 50% produced by 10 multinational companies

II. Technology – Developments

F. Global commerce3. Environmental Effects

a. Air pollution – Transportation• Ex: Bottled water• Nearly 25% of all bottled water transported

internationallyb. Release of GHGs

• Production (e.g. fertilizer, flatulence), transportationc. Waste production

• Ex: Bottled water• 89 billion liters/yr 1.5 million tons plastic waste (WWF,

2001)• 154 billion liters in 2004 (Earth Policy Institute)• >1 billion water bottles in CA trash/yr (CA Dept of

Conservation, 2003)d. Resource use

• Ex: Bottled water• 2004 – Plastic bottle production used ~9 million barrels

of oil, enough to fuel 600,000 cars for a year (EPI)

Earth Policy Institute

II. Technology – Developments

F. Global commerce4. Environmental Effects

e. Agricultural diversity• Conversion to monocultures Loss of diversity

f. Environmental degradation• Ex: Canals/Locks on Mississippi Biodiversity

loss (e.g. aquatic plants, inverts, fishes, birds)• Ex: Dredging/Development of Pantanal (largest

wetland in South America – 140,000 km2 ~IL) Damage to biodiversity hotspot

5. Health Concerns• Ex: 2003 – Green onions from Mexico 600 people in

PA with hepatitis, 3 deaths• Ex: 2006 – Spinach from CA 200+ people in 26

states sick from E. coli, 4+ deaths