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U.S. Department of Commerce BUREAU OF THE CENSUS Center for International Research

9.4 percent of the With respect to median age (the age that that age, whereas, in 2020, this dividing divides a population numerically age be 13 years higher.

mast other Asian countries, the el­derly population of Thailand is growing much faster the a whole. Between 1989 2020, Thai­land's total population will increase about 43 in the same period of time.

words, the number of persons under the The rapid increase in median age inand over is projected to triple, adding 10 age of 23 now equals the number over land and Singapore is due, in large part, million older men and women, almost

half of whom will be 65 and older.

Table 1. Figure 1. of Population in Older Age Median Age: 1960 to

Groups: 1989 to 2020 (Years)

or 55 and 65 and 75 and 50 country Year over over

Eastern 1989 8.3 3.3 0.9 South 10.2 4.8 1.4 Asia 15.0 6.5 2 1

1989 9.4 4.1 1.3 2005 13.0 6.3 2.1 2020 21.1 9.5 3.2

Philippines 7.6 3.3 1.0 9.0 4.1 1.2

11.6 5.2 1.6 Singapore 1989 5.6 1.9 30

19.3 8.9 3.0 33.5 16.5 5.0

Thailand now has higher proportions of people in the older age ranges relative to other countries in the region;with the ex­ception of Singapore (where more than 12 percent of the population is aged 55 and over), Thailand is the "oldest"

in Eastern South Asia. Projections to the year imply that 21 percent of the I II I population will be aged 55and over, mak- 1960 1970 1980 1990 2010 ing the Thai elderly one of the fastest growing older populations in

I

Singapore

III C--122.8_7.5

c:J 19892005

_ 2020

26.3

(66,64,

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Vietnam,

Hospitalized illor injured

1965.

2020), Thailand's

2(XX).

and/or

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gregates

Thailand

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Singapore

III C:_-~122.8_7.5

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_ 2020

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and/or

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Thailand's

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Figure 2. Elderly Support Ratios: 1989,2005, and 2020

Philippines

. . .

Figure 3. Health Indicators for the Elderly and Total Population: 1981 (Percent)

Reported ill

for more than 4 weeks

to a marked decline in fertility since The total fertility rate for Thailand dropped significantly from 6.1 in 1970 to 3.7 in 1980. Currently, each Thai woman has, on average, just over two children (2.2); this is projected to decline to 1.9 by the year

Another indicator of population aging is the change in support ratios-the num­ber of "dependent"persons(children un­der age 20 adults 65 years and over) per 100 persons in the "productive" ages (20 to 64 years). In 1989, the total support ratio for Thailand is 88.7. This means that for every 100 persons in the

6 0 and over All ages

productive age range there are 89 per­sons in the dependent age ranges.

Although the total support ratio in Thai­land will decreaseover the next three de­cades (to 56 in the elderly support ratio will rise from just over 7.5 in 1989 to nearly 15in (figure 2). Increasing el­derly support ratios imply increasing nomic dependency of and re­sponsibility for the elderly population.

LIFE EXPECTANCY Life expectancy at birth in Thailand is not unlike that in other Eastern South Asian countries. The average Thai born today

can expect to live about 65 years, similar to levels in the Philippines, and Malaysia and 67 years, respective­ly). The average for both sexes in Thai­land is projected to reach 68.4 years in - ­

Life expectancy for older persons also is increasing. In 1980, Thai women 55years of age could expect to live another 22.8 years. By 2000, women who reach their 55th birthday will be likely to see another 24.2 years.

AGING AND DEVELOPMENT

An aging society shares certain charac­teristics with a developing economy. Both show improved life expectancy and reduced fertility, which are related to ef­fective family planning policies, improve­ments in public health, urbanization,and a higher standard of living.

On the other hand, a shift in age struc­ture from younger to older can place stress on those same indicators of devcl­opment. For example, as life expectancy rises and as health care systems improve, Thailand will have increasing numbers of people in the "oldest old"age range (75 years and over). By 2020, nearly 2.3 mil­lion people in Thailand will have cele­ d brated their 75th birthday, triple thepres­ent number.

Many of these people may be living with disabilities and illnessesfrom which they might have died a generation earlier.

can be taxing on society,as increased hospitalization and public health expen­ditures are needed, as well as on individ­ual families, as more full-time care is needed from children and grandchildren who might otherwise be in the work force.

HEALTH AND MORBIDITY

Health and Welfare Survey of 1981 found that the morbidity level for the elderly (age 60 and older) was sub­stantially higher than for the nation as a whole. The proportion of older persons reported for more than 4 weeks was 23 percent, versus 8 percent of the entire population in CUIPS, 1985). Nevertheless, the level of hospitalization for those ill and injured was similar ,­

(around 50 percent) among the two ag­(figure 3).

Ministrydifficulties.

highlights1500

1200

L900 ,

disabilities ,.,/

600,,

------./300

(SiriphanichCUIPS, 35-39 40-49 50-59 60+

Age

all

lYpe

URBANIRURAL1970

UIOOnsame

(CUIPS,

Loss of limbs

2020 (Warnes

caregroWing

Ministrydifficulties.

highlights,1500

,1200

/,900 ,disabilities/',

600 ,------../

300

(Siriphanich40-49 50 59CUIPS, 35-39

Age

all

lYpe

URBANIRURAL1970

UIOOnsame

(CUIPS,

Loss of limbs

Deaf/heari

2020 (Warnes

caregrowing

all

1)'pe

URBANIRURAL1970

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2020 (Warnes

Loss of limbs

Deaf!

caregrowing

all

lYpe

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UIOOnsame

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2020 (Warnes

Loss of limbs

Deaf!

Looking to the near future, this suggests not only greater absolute numbers of people needing health because of

Figure 4.numbers of elderly, but also a change in the types of predominant ill­nesses. Aging populations increasingly Croup: 1981

Prevalence of Disability by Age

experience chronic and noncommunica­ble conditions such as cardiovasculardis­ease, chronic rheumatism, and cognitive function Thailand 2100 of Public Health statistics for 1980 show that cardiovasculardiseases are the lead­ing cause of death for those aged 60 and 1800

Malesover. This the increased need for long-term, full-time care which may necessitate a change in focus for the health care industry in Thailand.

,0 Females

The 1981 survey also shows a rapid in­crease in the prevalence of for both men and women after age 49, with

(Disabled persons per 100,000 population)2400

the rate for men being consistently high­er than that for women (figure 4).

Another study done in 1982 et al., in 1985)shows that about 7 percent of the elderly were disabled, compared to only 1 percent of the total population. Put another way, more than one-quarter of disabled persons in Thailand were elderly (60 and older). Nearlyone-third of the reporteddisabili­ties among the elderly in 1982 involved loss of hearing (figure 5).

Figure 5. Disabled Elderly (60+ by of Disability: 1982

DIMENSIONS Between and 1980, the proportion of elderly living in areas remained

7.9% Loss of speech 7.3%

essentially the (5.2 percent), while the elderly share of the rural population

Blindness 16.2%

increased slightly from 4.8 to 5.5 percent 1985).

A Other 13.3%

This trend is beginning to reverse itself. Over the next three decades, the elderly population in Bangkok will most likely Paralyzed grow more rapidly than the elderly popu­lation as a whole, in part because of Bangkok's lower mortality rates as well as the aging of its sizable young adult population. The portion of the metro­politan area's residentsaged 60and older is projected to increasefrom 5 percent in 1980 to 8 percent in 2000, and 14 to 18

23.5%

loss 31.7%

percent (depending on demographic as­sumptions) in and Horsey, 1988).

covers

1980's

1,00}77

(KumnuansiIpa

consistently1986,39

ThblePrinwy Source of

Over.

5

60

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80

1982-88.Kingdom

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Warnes,

u.

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u.s.

Unlessporportions

flI"St-nega-

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u.s.

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60

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1982-88.Kingdom

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u.

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u.s.

Unlessporportions

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(Kumnuansilpa

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Over:

5

60

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80

1982-88.Kingdom

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u.

Aging.

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More older women than older men live in urban areas, and in proportionshigher than found in rural areas. For every el­derly man (65 and older), there were 1.4 elderly women living in Thailand's cities in 1980. In rural areas, by contrast, there were 1.2 elderly women for each elderly man.

The effects that urbanization has on the well-being of the elderly are open to de­bate. Evidencesuggests that olderpeople in Thailand are-at least at tively affected during the transition from a predominantly rural to urban society. Changesin familialvaluesand the migra­tion of young people to cities have often loosened extended family ties, possibly leading older people (less than a third of whom still support themselves with their own salaries) to rely on forms of support such as the government or community. In 1985, only 54 percent of elderly women and 38 percent of elderly men in Thailand said that their main source of support was their children or grandchildren (Hugo, 1988).

In addition, many elderly are not eligible for government pensions. Thailand's pension system currently only civil servants and some private sector em­ployees, about 3 percent of the working population in 1985. In that same year, 5 percent of males and 1 percent of fe­males said that their main source of sup­port was some form of pension (table 2).

Several studies have suggested that a ma­jority of the elderly in Thailand have some economicdifficulties, regardless of where they live. Data from various sam­ple populations in the early reveal large of elderly with incomes below the poverty level (less than baht per month), reaching as high as percent in one study et al., in CUIPS, 1985).

Reported work participation rates among the urban elderly are lower than in ruralareas. In percent of rural Thai aged 60 and over were in the

2.

Aged 60 and (In percent)

Economic Support for Persons 1985

Country Pension

Male Female

Children or grandchildren Male Female

Own business or salary

Male Female Other

Male Female

Thailand 1 38 Indonesia 13 4 22 Malaysia 16 6 38 Singapore 9 1 53

Source: Hugo,1988, tables 4, 5, and 11.

labor force versus 23 percent of older persons in municipal areas. Some of this differential is related to the varying de­mands of agrarian work, which may re­quire one to work later in life. In addi­tion, older people living in cities may have more difficulty supporting them­selves due to the standards and regula­tions of the formal sector such as pre­scribed retirement ages and required levels of education.

Of those men and older living in cities who were in the labor force in 1981, 30 percent were reported as being "inade­quately utilized". This means that they were unemployed, wanted to work more hours than they did, or said that their education and training did not match their present occupation. For urban women aged 60 and over in the labor force, 43 percent were reported as inade­quately utilized.

REFERENCES

Chulalongkorn University Institute of Population Studies (CUIPS) and Thai­land Population and Manpower Plan­ning Division, Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board. 1985. The Thai Elderly Popula­tion: A Review of Literature and

Bangkok.

54 40 21 17 24 47 56 30 9 19 67 36 12 10 15

25 7 13 12

Hugo, Graeme. 1988. "The Changing Urban Situation in Southeast Asia and Australia, Some Implications for the El­derly." Paper presented at U.N. Interna­tional Conference on Aging Populations in the Context of Urbanization. Sendai, Japan.

Thailand National Statistics Office. Report of the Labor Force Survey,

Whole (Various Rounds). Labor Force Statistics Bangkok.

Tony and Ashley Horsey. 1988. "The Elderly Population of Third World Cities: Projections for Selected Metro­politan Areas." Preliminary Report of a King's College Study Supported by the Simon Population Trust. London.

This report wasprepared with the support of the Directorate for Health, Bureau for Science and Technology, S. Agency for International Development. otherwise indicated, data in the tent, tables, and figures come from the US . Bureau of the Census, International Data Base on Profile users are invited to send their comments to the Chief; Center for International Research, Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233.