I. GCASE: Methodology Climate change impact assessment on ... · Climate change impact assessment...
Transcript of I. GCASE: Methodology Climate change impact assessment on ... · Climate change impact assessment...
I. GCASE: Methodology Climate change impact assessment on water resources
Eylon Shamir (presenter) [email protected]
Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego www.hrcwater.org coauthors:
Sharon B. Megdal and, Susanna Eden Water Resources Research , University of Arizona (UA)
Karletta Chief, Soil Water & Environ. Sciences, UA &
Cristopher Castro, Atmospheric Sciences, UA
Funded by, NOAA Climate and Societal Interactions
Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP)
Exploring the Transferability of the GCASE Methodology to Locations in Sonora, Mexico , Esplendor Hotel Rio Rico, Arizona November 13, Orange, CA July 31, 2014
1. Develop water resources decision support modeling framework that addresses future climate uncertainties
-Climate scenarios and surface water flows -Linkages to groundwater recharge -Linkages to water management decisions
2. Increase stakeholders’ capacity to adapt water planning and management to future climate uncertainties
3. Establish transferability of the modeling approach and stakeholder engagement
Project Goals and Approach
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Santa Cruz River - Alluvial Aquifer
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Seasonal Precipitation &
Streamflow
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Years
Rai
nfal
l (m
m/s
easo
n)
Nogales Gauge
WinterSummer
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
2
4
6
8
10
12x 10
4
Years
Stre
amflo
w (1
000
m3 /s
easo
n)
Nogales Gauge
WinterSummer
RAINFALL STREAMFLOW
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Precipitation Categorization
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SUMMER (Jul-Sep) WINTER
WINTER (Nov-Mar)
Future Likely Rainfall Scenarios
Rainfall Generator
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Hydrologic Modeling Framework
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Climate Scenarios
Climate and Hydrologic Models
Global Circulation
Models
Regional Mesoscale
Models
Watershed Hydrologic
Models
Downscale
Input
• General climatology patterns ocean-land • Pacific sea surface temperature and relations
to SW climatology • Trade wind, atmospheric rivers etc. • General climatology of temperature and precip.
• Spatial distribution of climatological variables due to terrain and microclimate
• Special regional features • Summer rainfall, snow • Regional prevalent synoptic conditions
• Developed using local high resolution data • Further refinement of microclimate features • Interaction – surface –Groundwater • Feedback with management decision
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9
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.50
0.5
1
Average (mm/day)
Statisticaly Downscaled BCSD5 1/8o
Observed Nogales GaugeHistoric Interpolation 1/8o
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70
0.5
1
Standard Deviation (mm/day)
Cum
ulat
ive
Dis
tribu
tion
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2000
0.5
1
Rainy Days (count)
Issues with widely used climate impact assessment procedures
Statistical Downscaled CMIP 3 &5
Climate and Hydrology Projections
http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip_projections/
Precipitation from 8 IPCC-AR3, A2 emission scenario, dynamically downscaled regional
climate models
No. Regional Model Resolution 1 Max Planck Institute (MPI) 35 km2, 6 h,
1950-2100 2 Hadley center (HADCAM3) 3-8 North American Regional
Climate Change Assessment Program [NARCCAP]
50km2, 3 h, 1970-2000 2040-2070
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8 Regional Climate Models
Projected Wetness by 8 models SUMMER
• 7 models projected MORE DRY summers
• Only 2 models projected MORE WET summers
WINTER • 8 models projected MORE DRY
winters • 6 models projected MORE WET
winters
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2
3
4 5 6 7
1 2 3
4 5 6
7
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8 Regional Climate Models 11
Regional Climate Model
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Years
Rai
nfal
l (m
m/S
easo
n)
MPI Summer [July-September]
Seasonal10-Yr Moving Avg.Tercile Boundaries
Clear reduction in Summer
#2
Projection
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 20800
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Years
Rai
nfal
l (m
m/S
easo
n)
MPI Winter [November-March]
Seasonal10-Yr Moving Avg.Tercile Boundaries
Higher variability in Winter
#2
Projection
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Summary
• We developed a modeling framework that is capable to generate ensembles of likely realizations that represent the climate variability of rainfall, streamflow and ground water recharge
• Climate projections indicate: – higher frequency of dry summers – lower frequency of wet summers – higher frequency of dry and wet winters
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