WELCOMEI-395 SEMINARY ROAD RAMP — TRAFFIC ANALYSIS FOR THE CONVERSION FROM HOV TO HOT

To develop a transportation solution that:

✓ Encourages greater use of existing interstate network and capacity

✓ Reduces congestion on the general purpose lanes

✓ Improves safety ✓ Improves network reliability and provide predictable travel choice

Project goals

To provide information and gain public input:

� Traffic analysis findings � Safety findings

Goals of tonight’s meeting

Opportunities to provide formal comment for the public record:

� Submit written comments on the comment sheet

� Ask questions following the presentation

PROJECT BENEFITS

✓ Expanded travel choices � The Project utilizes existing infrastructure to provide an

alternative choice for single or double occupancy vehicles – post-conversion HOV3+ will travel free 24/7

� Analysis shows utilization of the ramp increases when converted from HOV to HOT

✓ To repurpose underutilized infrastructure � The ramp is underutilized today, carrying only

49 – 61% of forecasted volumes for 2015

✓ Improved reliability � Reduces congestion on I-395 general purpose lanes � Increased ability for the interstate network to handle

crashes and other congestion events

✓ Improved safety � Overall estimated crash rate reduction across

general purpose and HOT ramps

✓ Improved operations on local streets � The increase in volumes on the HOT ramp exceeds the decrease

in volumes on the general purpose lanes, indicating cars are being drawn from local streets to the HOT Lanes (see figure)

� No impact or small reductions in traffic volumes on local streets

Anticipated traffic volumes on the NB ramps during the AM peak period

2020 No Build/HOV 2020 Build/HOT

Local Streets AMGP AM HOV/HOT AM

135

230 525

1,470 1,310

PROJECT INFORMATION AND SCHEDULE

Existing infrastructure � Ramp constructed by VDOT in 2012, opened in 2016 � No additional civil construction required

Signage and pavement marking changes � No new signage or digital messaging boards � Seminary Road: 4 sign removals, 5 sign overlays, 2 sign replacements, and 2 sets of pavement message replacements

� I-395 Northbound General Purpose Lanes: 4 sign removals, 1 sign overlay, 3 sign replacements, and 2 sets of pavement message removals

TASKS LATE 2019 EARLY 2020 MID 2020

Public meeting December 9th

Public comment period closes December 31st

Traffic analysis input from the City of Alexandria

Traffic analysis and NEPA approval from FHWA

Traffic analysis approval from VDOT

Target ramp conversion

STUDY AREA

Study area and data collection

✓ Study area limits and intersections were delineated in coordination with VDOT, FHWA, and the City of Alexandria

✓ Further traffic counts in a wider area were completed to inform the larger analysis of local streets

✓ Data was collected during October and November 2018

✓ Automatic traffic recorder and turning movement counts were collected for the study area

✓ 70+ intersections were studied

Eisenhower Ave

Janneys Ln

Columbia Pike

UV236UV620

UV648

495

395

95

UV 7

UV236

.1

W Braddock Rd

N Q

uaker Ln

ALEXANDRIAWEST

LANDMARK

DEL RAY

Russell Rd

Extended study area for cut-through analysis

Initial study area for traffic analysis

EXISTING CONDITIONS � Utilizing existing infrastructure � The ramp is underutilized, and currently carrying only 49-61% of the traffic forecasted for 2015 in the peak hour

Seminary Rd

< 395 Express Lanes (reversible) >

395 GP NB >

< 395 GP SB

Seminary HOV Ramp (south-facing)

Reversible – Currently operating as HOV

Seminary HOT Ramp (north-facing)

Reversible – Converted from HOV to HOT November 17, 2019

LegendMorning Direction

Afternoon Direction

EXPRESS LANES NETWORK

DullesInternational

Airport

Ronald ReaganWashington National Airport

M A R Y L A N D

M A R Y L A N D

V I R G I N I A

John HansonHighway

PennsylvaniaAvenue

Richmond Highway

Dulles Toll RoadDulles Access Road

Dulles GreenwayToll Road

1

1

29

50

15

17

1

267

286

235

28

190

189

190

123

7

28

234

WASHINGTON DC

495

95

95

95

270

495

495

495

395

395 695

295

95

95

66

66

3

295

295

5

4

7

610

610

3

50

50

29

1

301

301

301

301

301

301

5

George Washington

Parkway

George Washington

Parkway

Garrisonville Road

395 Express Lanes

95 Express Lanes

New Lane at Occoquan

495 Express Lanes

Northern Extension

Opitz BlvdConnection

66 Express Lanes

Seminary HOV South-facing Ramp

95 FredericksburgExtension

Greater Washington Area

Transurban asset

Motorway Upgrade Tunnel

495 Express Lanes Northern Extension and Opitz Blvd. Connection

Committed projects/projects under construction

N

� Opened November 17, 2019

� Extended existing 95 Express lanes from near Edsall Road to the D.C. line

� $15M annual transit investment

� Reversible in peak direction

� HOV-3+ travel free 24/7 with E-ZPass Flex in HOV ON mode

� The Seminary south-facing HOV ramp is a reversible access point that connects to the 395 Express Lanes

TRAFFIC OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS KEY FINDINGS

✓ Traffic volumes from general purpose lanes and local arterials move to the HOT lanes

✓ No adverse impacts on intersections in 2020 and 2040

✓ No adverse impacts on speeds along local streets in 2020 and 2040

✓ Findings do not change materially with and without the road diet along Seminary Road

✓ Ramp is underutilized today currently carrying only 49 – 61% of forecasted volumes for 2015

✓ Converting to HOT, volumes expected to be lower than original forecasts

Seminary Ramp Volumes (AM Peak Hour)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Existing Counts

2019 Study (IMR)

2019 Study (IMR)

2012 Study (IMR) 2015 Forecast (HOV)

2018 (HOV)

2020 Forecast (HOT)

2040 Forecast (HOT)

Seminary Ramp Volumes (PM Peak Hour)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Existing Counts

2019 Study (IMR)

2019 Study (IMR)

2012 Study (IMR) 2015 Forecast (HOV)

2018 (HOV)

2020 Forecast (HOT)

2040 Forecast (HOT)

TRAFFIC SAFETY ANALYSIS KEY FINDINGS

✓ Based on crash analysis, estimate less than 1 crash per year along the south facing HOV ramp

✓ Converting ramp from HOV to HOT increases traffic on HOT ramp and decreases traffic on general purpose (GP) ramp, therefore the estimated crash rate reduction on GP ramp is greater than the crash rate increase on the ramp operating as HOT

✓ In summary, estimate a net reduction in crashes on the corridor

Crash analysis performed using last 5 years (2014-2018) data for freeway, ramps & arterials within the IMR Study Areacrash rates compared with statewide and crash modification factors used to predict future crash frequency*Includes all on- and off-ramps within the IMR Study Area

EXTENDED STUDY AREA TRAFFIC ANALYSISAM PEAK HOUR 2020 — HOV vs. HOT

HOT scenario ✓ Increase in HOT ramp volume is greater than the decrease in the general purpose ramp volume

✓ Traffic shifts from general purpose lanes to HOT and from local streets to HOT

✓ Traffic filters from local streets south of Alexandria to I-495 general purpose lanesEisenhower Ave

Janneys Ln

Columbia Pike

UV236UV620

UV648

495

395

95

UV 7

UV236

.1

W Braddock Rd

N Q

uaker Ln

ALEXANDRIAWEST

LANDMARK

DEL RAY

Russell Rd

LegendIncrease

Decrease

No Material Change

395

Seminary Rd

UV401HOT

GP

HOT

HOT

GP

GP

Seminary Ramp

EXTENDED STUDY AREA TRAFFIC ANALYSISPM PEAK HOUR 2020 — HOV vs. HOT

HOT scenario ✓ Increase in HOT ramp volume is greater than the decrease in the general purpose ramp volume

✓ Traffic shifts from general purpose lanes to HOT and from local streets to HOT

✓ Small movement of traffic from local streets to interstate network

Eisenhower Ave

Janneys Ln

Columbia Pike

UV236UV620

UV648

495

395

95

UV 7

UV236

.1

W Braddock Rd

N Q

uaker Ln

ALEXANDRIAWEST

LANDMARK

DEL RAY

Russell Rd

395

Seminary Rd

UV401

HOT

GP

HOT

HOT

GP

GP

Seminary Ramp

LegendIncrease

Decrease

No Material Change