Hybridization opportunities in an era of energy abundance 2014 03-17
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Please note: The assumptions, opinions and conclusions herein are those of the author and not necessarily those of XALT Energy. [email protected] Thank you Sandeep and ANSYS for this event and your support of vehicle electrification 1
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"Hybridization Opportunities in an Era of Energy Abundance" Keynote Presentation By: Martin Klein, delivered at the Networking Reception of the Hybrid and Electric Vehicles Michigan Group on March 17, 2014. Abstract: The economic value proposition to US car buyers for plug electric vehicles, and therefore PEV market share, have been slow to materialize. With gas prices steady or declining since 2011, growing proven oil and gas reserves, and improvements in IC engine efficiency, the payback period for PEVs - especially in the absence of government incentives - can exceed 10 years. While improvements in battery costs and continued regulatory pressures offer hope for future growth in the passenger car market, there are exciting opportunities for hybrid and full electrification in other areas. Transit busses and large marine operators face severe pressure on operating costs and tighter restrictions on emissions in congested areas like city centers and large commercial ports. Electrification offers an attractive value proposition for the operators of these fleets. Bio: Martin Klein is the Vice President of Engineering at XALT Energy, where he is responsible for the development, testing, and manufacturing of lithium-ion battery systems for hybrid electric and pure electric vehicles including bus, truck, and maritime applications. Prior to his current appointment Mr. Klein led the development of Li-ion battery systems for xEV applications as the Director of Engineering at LG Chem Power in Troy, MI. Mr. Klein has had an extensive career in the field of automotive and defense electronics systems and electromagnetic compatibility spanning prominent organizations including Visteon, Ford, Electrospace Systems (now Raytheon) and Texas Instruments. Mr. Klein holds a Bachelors degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Michigan and a Masters degree in Electronics and Computer Control Systems from Wayne State University.
Transcript of Hybridization opportunities in an era of energy abundance 2014 03-17
Please note: The assumptions, opinions and conclusions herein are those of the author and not necessarily those of XALT Energy. [email protected]
Thank you Sandeep and ANSYS for this event and your support of vehicle electrification
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The early 2000’s were fertile ground for electrification:‐ Oil & Gas prices were climbing; with occasional shortages punctuating the story;‐ Breakthroughs in Lithium‐Ion batteries were making available lighter, smaller power
packs with great energy densities‐ Government incentives to stimulate battery research and mass production ‐ Government rebates to stimulate PEV sales Though not quite there yet, there appeared to be a reasonable path to a true economic value proposition to the end customer
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Moreover, there were moral imperatives to electrification:• There was considerable media coverage suggesting growth in CO2 emissions could lead
to global warming with dire consequences…with potential for regulatory action to curb fossil fuel usage
• Fears of Peak Oil, leading to severe geopolitical disruptions beyond just high gasoline prices and shortages
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• Confirmed Petroleum reserves actually kept growing; in fact from 2008‐2012 the annual oil production replacement rate grew from 67% to 138%
• Prices held steady; fluctuations were actually caused by refinery & distribution issues, not crude shortages
• Not to mention Natural Gas boom – certain areas where NatGas can displace Oil, making Oil even more plentiful/available
• Skepticism over 1) Global warming: no discernable temp increases over last 17 years2) Anthropogenic causes to global warming: Some are challenging link between CO2
increase and global warming3) Anthropogenic actions to curtail warming: Very low impact from even the most draconian actions to reduce or sequester CO2
4) Adverse effects: assuming some warming does eventually occur, may actually be helpful (longer growing seasons; newly arable lands)
Moreover, some governments are backing off CO2 management having seen the large potential cost to their economies for little discernible benefit
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There are some truly great xEV vehicles available now, and many of the people in this room have had a direct hand in bringing these remarkable machines to life!
Moreover, Battery manufacturing capacity in the US has indeed been given a jump start (no pun intended), despite a few setbacks along the way, but..
…PEV sales remain disappointing
According to Polk and IHS, PEV growth will be driven by tougher emissions regulations, particularly in the European, Middle East and Africa regions, which will see more than 40% of the production share. Americas and Asia regions will make up about 30%
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Transit Bus Electrification started in the 1990s. Barriers to more widespread adoption included high upfront costs, tight budgets (and more recently the recession)But the NA transit Bus fleet is aging: FTA minimum life is 12 years; average age is now 8 years, and <17% in‐use are over 12 years in operation
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Why the wide band of pricing? Most transit buses are delivered “to Order”, so the cost can vary widely depending on outfittingAlso, there has been considerable effort in the industry to outfit buses with attractive amenities like Wi‐Fi access, bike racks, security cameras, comfortable seating, etc.
Estimates of long‐term maintenance cost savings are sketchy for a number of reasons‐ For HEVs, there is reduced wear & tear on the transmission, engine and brakes;
however, that may be offset by the need to replace batteries before the 12 year minimum life. There are not enough buses out there yet to more firmly estimate long term savings
‐ For EVs, the estimates have a little higher confidence because we know which parts are no longer needed in the vehicle.
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Most noticeable noise reduction is during acceleration. Once at speed, tire noise dominates.
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In 2014 strict rules go into effect in the Ports of LA – All ships must operate on Shore Power
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These battery packs are very large: 2‐50MWh
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I won’t try to predict the future tonight.
But there are lots of opportunities for vehicle electrificationNear Term
• Buses, Trucks: Reduce cost of operation and reduce noxious emissions (in high density areas)
• Ships: Reduce cost of operation and reduce noxious emissions in harbors
• Pass Cars: Build on PEV progress over past decade 8 yearsLonger Term: Fast charging stations, In‐motion charging
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