Hutchison Port Holdings Trust 300511 DBSV

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www.dbsvickers.com Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report ed: JS / sa: YM BUY US$0.915 STI : 3,135.52 Price Target : 12-Month US$ 1.15 Reason for Report : Company Update Potential Catalyst: Stronger than expected throughput growth Analyst Paul YONG CFA +65 6398 7951 [email protected] Suvro SARKAR +65 6398 7973 [email protected] Price Relative 19 69 119 169 219 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 M ar-11 Relative Index US$ Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (LHS) Relative STI INDEX (RHS) Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (HK$ m) 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Revenue 11,408 12,491 13,661 14,837 EBITDA 7,013 7,497 8,343 9,198 Pre-tax Profit 3,592 4,061 4,765 5,625 Net Profit 2,131 2,293 2,685 3,149 Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 2,131 2,293 2,685 3,149 EPS (US cts.) 3.1 3.4 4.0 4.6 EPS Pre Ex. (US cts.) 3.1 3.4 4.0 4.6 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) N/A 8 17 17 Diluted EPS (US cts.) 3.1 3.4 4.0 4.6 Net DPS (US cts.) 0.0 6.0 6.6 7.2 BV Per Share (US cts.) 101.0 101.4 99.1 96.8 PE (X) 29.1 27.0 23.1 19.7 PE Pre Ex. (X) 29.1 27.0 23.1 19.7 P/Cash Flow (X) 13.1 12.3 11.4 10.5 EV/EBITDA (X) 15.1 14.0 12.6 11.5 Net Div Yield (%) 0.0 6.5 7.3 7.9 P/Book Value (X) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 ROAE (%) 3.1 3.3 4.0 4.7 Earnings Rev (%): - - - Consensus DPS (US cts.): 5.1 6.6 6.9 Other Broker Recs: B: 7 S: 5 H: 1 ICB Industry : Financials ICB Sector: Equity Investment Instruments Principal Business: HPH Trust owns deepwater container terminal assets in the Pearl River Delta region of China Source of all data: Company, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 8,709 Mkt. Cap (US$m) 7,969 Major Shareholders Hutchison Whampoa (%) 27.6 PSA International (%) 10.4 Capital Group (%) 10.1 Free Float (%) 50.0 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 91,881 DBS Group Research . Equity 30 May 2011 Singapore Company Focus Hutchison Port Holdings Trust Bloomberg: HPHT SP | Reuters: HPHT.SI Smooth sailing so far Year-to-date throughput numbers in HK and Yantian Port are largely on track with our expectations 7%-8% throughput growth along with modest improvement in rates to drive EBITDA growth in FY11 Maiden interim DPS of c. US 1.8cts projected when HPHT reports 1H11 earnings before mid August Maintain BUY and US$1.15 TP Throughput volumes on track with our projections. Throughput volumes for the first four months of 2011 rose by 5.7% y-o-y at Yantian Port, 7.9% at COSCO- HIT, and we believe by between 6%-8% at HIT, which means that operations at HPH Trust are on track to meet our expectations for FY11. Firm prospects over the short and medium term. We like HPH Trust for its stable and growing earnings profile, which we believe will be driven by continued rising trade volumes into and out of the Pearl River Delta region, translating into an annual growth of 10% in distributions to unit-holders for the next few years. HPH Trust is due to report its interim results by mid-Aug, and we are expecting a DPS of c. 1.8UScts to be declared. Maintain BUY and US$1.15 TP. Given that HPH Trust seems to be well on its way to meet our projections in FY11/12, current FY11/12 yields look very attractive at 6.6%/7.2%; expect DPU CAGR of 10% up to 2013. Maintain BUY on the stock with a TP of US$1.15. This implies a total return potential in excess of 30% at current prices. Amongst Singapore listed REITs, Business Trusts and high yield plays, HPH Trust offers one of the highest combinations of yield and DPU growth.

Transcript of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust 300511 DBSV

Page 1: Hutchison Port Holdings Trust 300511 DBSV

www.dbsvickers.com Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report ed: JS / sa: YM

BUY US$0.915 STI : 3,135.52 Price Target : 12-Month US$ 1.15 Reason for Report : Company Update Potential Catalyst: Stronger than expected throughput growth Analyst Paul YONG CFA +65 6398 7951 [email protected] Suvro SARKAR +65 6398 7973 [email protected]

Price Relative

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H u tc h is o n P o r t H o ld in g s T r u s t ( L H S ) R e la t i v e S T I IN D E X ( R H S ) Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (HK$ m) 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F

Revenue 11,408 12,491 13,661 14,837 EBITDA 7,013 7,497 8,343 9,198 Pre-tax Profit 3,592 4,061 4,765 5,625 Net Profit 2,131 2,293 2,685 3,149 Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 2,131 2,293 2,685 3,149 EPS (US cts.) 3.1 3.4 4.0 4.6 EPS Pre Ex. (US cts.) 3.1 3.4 4.0 4.6 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) N/A 8 17 17 Diluted EPS (US cts.) 3.1 3.4 4.0 4.6 Net DPS (US cts.) 0.0 6.0 6.6 7.2 BV Per Share (US cts.) 101.0 101.4 99.1 96.8 PE (X) 29.1 27.0 23.1 19.7 PE Pre Ex. (X) 29.1 27.0 23.1 19.7 P/Cash Flow (X) 13.1 12.3 11.4 10.5 EV/EBITDA (X) 15.1 14.0 12.6 11.5 Net Div Yield (%) 0.0 6.5 7.3 7.9 P/Book Value (X) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 ROAE (%) 3.1 3.3 4.0 4.7 Earnings Rev (%): - - - Consensus DPS (US cts.): 5.1 6.6 6.9 Other Broker Recs: B: 7 S: 5 H: 1 ICB Industry : Financials ICB Sector: Equity Investment Instruments Principal Business: HPH Trust owns deepwater container terminal assets in the Pearl River Delta region of China

Source of all data: Company, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg

At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 8,709 Mkt. Cap (US$m) 7,969 Major Shareholders Hutchison Whampoa (%) 27.6 PSA International (%) 10.4 Capital Group (%) 10.1 Free Float (%) 50.0 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 91,881

DBS Group Research . Equity 30 May 2011

Singapore Company Focus

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust Bloomberg: HPHT SP | Reuters: HPHT.SI

Smooth sailing so far • Year-to-date throughput numbers in HK and Yantian

Port are largely on track with our expectations

• 7%-8% throughput growth along with modest improvement in rates to drive EBITDA growth in FY11

• Maiden interim DPS of c. US 1.8cts projected when HPHT reports 1H11 earnings before mid August

• Maintain BUY and US$1.15 TP Throughput volumes on track with our projections. Throughput volumes for the first four months of 2011 rose by 5.7% y-o-y at Yantian Port, 7.9% at COSCO-HIT, and we believe by between 6%-8% at HIT, which means that operations at HPH Trust are on track to meet our expectations for FY11. Firm prospects over the short and medium term. We like HPH Trust for its stable and growing earnings profile, which we believe will be driven by continued rising trade volumes into and out of the Pearl River Delta region, translating into an annual growth of 10% in distributions to unit-holders for the next few years.

HPH Trust is due to report its interim results by mid-Aug, and we are expecting a DPS of c. 1.8UScts to be declared. Maintain BUY and US$1.15 TP. Given that HPH Trust seems to be well on its way to meet our projections in FY11/12, current FY11/12 yields look very attractive at 6.6%/7.2%; expect DPU CAGR of 10% up to 2013. Maintain BUY on the stock with a TP of US$1.15. This implies a total return potential in excess of 30% at current prices. Amongst Singapore listed REITs, Business Trusts and high yield plays, HPH Trust offers one of the highest combinations of yield and DPU growth.

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Year to date throughput estimates largely in line Based on reported numbers from COSCO-Pacific (HPH Trust does not disclose monthly operating statistics), throughput volumes at HPHT’s COSCO-HIT terminals and Yantian Port rose by 3.7% y-o-y and 8.8% y-o-y respectively in the month of April. For the first four months of 2011, combined throughput at COSCO-HIT has increased by 7.9% and for Yantian Port, by 5.7%. Yantian’s throughput growth rate YTD in 2011 has been faster than the rest of the Shenzhen ports, which is in line with our assumption that Yantian will increase its market share in Shenzhen, going forward. Throughput Volumes at COSCO-HIT and Yantian COSCO- % Chg Yantian % Chg TEUs HIT y-o-y Port y-o-y Jan-11 141,100 11.0% 934,500 17.2% Feb-11 106,400 5.6% 569,400 -12.1% Mar-11 132,200 11.7% 773,500 5.8% Apr-11 144,300 3.7% 776,100 8.8%

YTD 524,000 7.9% 3,053,500 5.7% Source: COSCO Pacific Meanwhile, throughput volumes at Kwai-Tsing Terminals, which includes HIT, COSCO-HIT and MTL (Modern Terminals) grew by 6.7% y-o-y in April and by 4.5% y-o-y for the first four months of 2011. This is higher than the overall growth rate in HK Port (which includes river ports and mid-ocean terminals). Taking into account the fact that competitor Modern Terminals lost some volumes when Maersk Lines shifted some of their handling requirements to Nansha Port, Guangzhou, we believe HIT’s throughput volumes would have grown at a faster pace than Kwai-Tsing Terminals as a whole – at around 6%-8% for the first four months of 2011. Throughput Volumes at HK Port and Kwai-Tsing Terminals

Hong Kong % Chg Kwai-Tsing % Chg TEUs Port YoY Terminals YoY Jan-11 2,097,000 5.4% 1,514,000 6.0% Feb-11 1,529,000 -1.5% 1,157,000 -2.3% Mar-11 1,968,000 3.1% 1,418,000 6.5% Apr-11 2,023,000 3.6% 1,483,000 6.7%

YTD 7,617,000 2.9% 5,572,000 4.5%

Source: Hong Kong Marine Department

Throughput Volumes at Yantian port

Source: COSCO Pacific Throughput Volumes at COSCO-HIT Terminal

Source: COSCO Pacific Throughput Volumes at COSCO-HIT Terminal

Source: Hong Kong Marine Department

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Forecasts remain unchanged Based on 7% throughput growth in Hong Kong and 8% throughput growth in Yantian in FY11, and 1% - 2.5% improvement in revenue per TEU, we project HPHT’s (annualised proforma) EBITDA to grow by 7.4% in FY11. Key Assumptions for FY11

HIT Yantian Port Throughput growth 7.0% 8.0% Change in Rev/ TEU 1.2% 2.5%

Source: DBS Vickers Interim dividend to be declared before mid August HPHT’s full year (annualised proforma) distributable income is estimated at HK$6,179.5m, translating to a DPU of 5.95UScts for FY11. However, as the income only accrues to its unitholders from March 17th (the date of its IPO) onwards, actual DPU for FY11 is projected to be c. 4.85UScts (5.95UScts x 0.815x), of which we expect around 1.8UScts will be declared for the first half of 2011 to shareholders. HPH Trust is expected to announce results for the period ending June 2011, sometime before mid August. HPH Trust trading at a wide discount to other yield plays In our initiation report, we had indicated that comparisons to entities with high dividend payouts such as REITs and other “high yield plays” can be used as a relative benchmark for HPH Trust’s valuation. However, at current prices, we feel the Trust is unjustifiably undervalued at 6.6-7.3% yield for FY11/12, compared to the overall average of ~6% yield for office and retail REITs in Singapore. Compared to the larger market cap REITs with high quality assets like CMT, CCT and K-REIT – which are trading at between 4.6-5.6% on FY11/12 – the valuation gap is even wider. Compared to the high yield stocks in Singapore, which include telecom, infrastructure, MRO, media and land transport companies, we come to the same conclusion as above. While promising much higher DPU growth prospects We project HPH Trust could grow its distributions by about 10% over the next 2 years. This compares very favourably with the expected DPU growth for the REITs and other yield plays, as evident in the table below. While the office REIT DPU is expected to grow at 1.5% CAGR over FY10-12, retail/mixed REIT DPU is expected to grow at an average 2.9% CAGR and that for “high yield plays” is expected to

grow at an average CAGR of 2.7%, given that the assets are largely mature. Has underperfomed the index as well as industry peers Since listing, the stock is down 10%, compared to a 7% rise in the STI index and a 7% rise in the share price of other port stocks in the region like China Merchants and COSCO Pacific. While it is partly attributable to the fact that the IPO issue was priced before the Japan earthquake crisis, we believe that the extent of underperformance is not warranted, given that operations seem to be on track with our projections and thus, we feel this presents a good buying opportunity. Relative share price performance of HPHT vs. peers and index

Source: Bloomberg, DBS Vickers While we feel that comparing with industry peers on a range of earnings multiple based valuations is less relevant, given the difference in corporate structure, usage of free cash flow and payout ratios between HPH Trust and other listed container port companies, we have included other port players in the list below for comparison. It is evident that EV/EBITDA multiple premium between HPH Trust and closest peer CMHI has shrunk and is almost at par, while we look for at least a 10% premium given the higher EBITDA margins generated by HPH Trust and the better visibility and transparency of cash flows accruing to shareholders. Maintain BUY and TP of US$1.15. (DCF-based). Given that the Trust seems to be well on its way to met our projections in FY11/12F, current FY11/12 yields look very attractive at 6.6-7.3%, and coupled with decent growth prospects of ~10%, we maintain our BUY call on the stock with a TP of US$1.15. This implies total return potential in excess of 30% at current prices. Our target price of US$1.15 is based on a 3-stage DCF model with a WACC of 7.2% and terminal growth of 1%.

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Peer Valuation Summary

Share Mkt DPU DPU EBITDA

Price Cap FY11 FY12 Yield Yield P/B DPU EV/EBITDA Margin

Comparable (local $) (US$m) (local cts) (local cts) FY11 FY12 (x) CAGR FY11 FY12 (%)

SG Office REITs Frasers Commercial Trust 0.82 411 6.1 6.4 7.5% 7.9% 0.4 7.9% 15.0 14.5 13.8

CapitaCommercial Trust 1.46 3317 6.7 6.7 4.6% 4.6% 1.0 -7.3% 20.1 20.6 20.2

K-REIT 1.28 1398 7.2 6.8 5.6% 5.3% 0.9 3.9% 40.5 47.9 55.3

Average 5.9% 5.9% 1.5% 25.2 27.7 29.8

SG Retail/Mixed REITs CapitaMall Trust 1.93 4940 9.7 10.9 5.0% 5.6% 1.2 8.3% 23.0 21.3 19.8

CapitaRetail China Trust 1.24 624 8.6 8.8 6.9% 7.1% 1.1 2.6% 16.6 15.4 14.4

Frasers Centrepoint Trust 1.49 922 8.4 8.8 5.6% 5.9% 1.2 3.6% 22.7 21.5 19.7

Starhill Global Reit 0.64 991 4.3 4.6 6.8% 7.2% 0.7 4.7% 17.0 15.9 15.6

Suntec REIT 1.51 2686 9.0 9.0 6.0% 6.0% 0.8 -4.7% 31.6 28.2 27.7

Average 6.1% 6.4% 2.9% 22.2 20.5 19.5

SG High Yield SP Ausnet 1.23 2747 8.0 8.2 6.5% 6.7% N/A 1.2% 9.9 9.4 61.5

SingTel 3.13 40079 18.3 18.2 5.8% 5.8% 2.1 7.3% 8.9 8.6 25.4

Starhub 2.74 3775 19.9 19.9 7.3% 7.3% 39.0 -0.3% 7.7 7.3 27.1

ST Engineering 2.97 7284 15.1 17.1 5.1% 5.8% 5.2 10.1% 10.8 10.1 12.2

SPH 3.82 4896 24.0 25.0 6.3% 6.5% 2.9 -3.8% 12.0 11.4 46.5

SMRT 1.90 2319 8.5 8.8 4.5% 4.6% 3.6 1.7% 8.3 7.6 32.7

Average 5.9% 6.1% 2.7% 9.6 9.1 34.2

Port Operators China Merchants Int'l 33.30 10523 83.0 93.0 2.5% 2.8% 2.1 -5.0% 13.5 12.3 54.6

Cosco Pacific 14.94 5206 49.0 54.0 3.3% 3.6% 1.6 8.3% 10.5 8.9 49.2

Shanghai Int'l Port 3.88 13601 11.8 13.5 3.0% 3.5% 2.2 11.8% 8.9 8.0 46.1

Shenzhen Chiwan Wharf 12.21 1360 53.5 61.0 4.4% 5.0% 2.0 14.8% 7.2 6.7 61.1

DP World 13.30 11039 18.6 22.0 1.4% 1.7% 1.4 13.1% 13.1 11.7 33.9

Average 2.9% 3.3% 10.6 9.5 49.0

HPH Trust US$ 0.91 7882 5.9 6.6 6.6% 7.3% 0.8 9.9% 14.0 12.6 59.3

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

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Segmental Breakdown FY Dec 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F

Revenues (HK$ m) Hong Kong 5,434 5,884 6,359 6,840 PRC 5,905 6,537 7,232 7,928 Others 69 70 70 70 Total 11,408 12,491 13,661 14,837 Income Statement (HK$ m) FY Dec 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F

Revenue 11,408 12,491 13,661 14,837 Cost of Goods Sold (3,692) (4,124) (4,444) (4,755) Gross Profit 7,717 8,367 9,217 10,082 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (3,642) (3,876) (3,914) (3,931) Operating Profit 4,074 4,491 5,302 6,152 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 Associates & JV Inc 167 126 139 153 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (649) (555) (677) (680) Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 3,592 4,061 4,765 5,625 Tax (253) (392) (570) (780) Minority Interest (1,208) (1,376) (1,510) (1,696) Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Net Profit 2,131 2,293 2,685 3,149 Net Profit before Except. 2,131 2,293 2,685 3,149 EBITDA 7,013 7,497 8,343 9,198 Growth Revenue Gth (%) N/A 9.5 9.4 8.6 EBITDA Gth (%) N/A 6.9 11.3 10.2 Opg Profit Gth (%) N/A 10.2 18.1 16.0 Net Profit Gth (%) N/A 7.6 17.1 17.3 Margins & Ratio Gross Margins (%) 67.6 67.0 67.5 68.0 Opg Profit Margin (%) 35.7 36.0 38.8 41.5 Net Profit Margin (%) 18.7 18.4 19.7 21.2 ROAE (%) 3.1 3.3 4.0 4.7 ROA (%) 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.3 ROCE (%) 2.9 3.1 3.6 4.1 Div Payout Ratio (%) 0.0 176.0 167.4 154.8 Net Interest Cover (x) 6.3 8.1 7.8 9.1 Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Margins Trend

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Operating Margin % Net Income Margin %

PRC revenues expected to grow at a faster pace

Tax rates to increase as tax concessions are removed in a phased manner at Yantian Port

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Balance Sheet (HK$ m) FY Dec 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F

Net Fixed Assets 78,356 77,693 76,195 74,634 Invts in Associates & JVs 2,950 2,902 2,853 2,805 Other LT Assets 50,512 50,281 50,049 49,818 Cash & ST Invts 4,571 5,641 4,677 3,807 Inventory 141 169 177 195 Debtors 2,576 2,875 2,957 3,171 Other Current Assets 3 379 755 1,132 Total Assets 139,109 139,940 137,664 135,561 ST Debt 2,775 2,775 2,775 2,775 Other Current Liab 8,488 8,739 8,789 8,994 LT Debt 26,126 26,126 26,126 26,126 Other LT Liabilities 13,659 13,659 13,659 13,659 Shareholder’s Equity 68,442 68,717 67,137 65,601 Minority Interests 19,621 19,924 19,179 18,407 Total Cap. & Liab. 139,109 139,940 137,664 135,561 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital (5,768) (5,316) (4,900) (4,496) Net Cash/(Debt) (24,329) (23,259) (24,223) (25,093) Debtors Turn (avg days) 82.4 79.6 77.9 75.4 Creditors Turn (avg days) 3,264.8 2,451.7 2,010.5 1,690.9 Inventory Turn (avg days) 55.9 45.6 40.9 36.5 Asset Turnover (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Current Ratio (x) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 Quick Ratio (x) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 Capex to Debt (%) 216.5 6.9 4.1 3.8 Z-Score (X) NA NA NA NA Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m) FY Dec 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F

Pre-Tax Profit 3,592 4,061 4,765 5,625 Dep. & Amort. 2,774 2,884 2,905 2,898 Tax Paid (508) (768) (946) (1,157) Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (167) (126) (139) (153) Chg in Wkg.Cap. (919) (76) (39) (27) Other Operating CF 993 0 0 0 Net Operating CF 5,767 5,976 6,546 7,186 Capital Exp.(net) (62,574) (1,987) (1,172) (1,100) Other Invts.(net) 936 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 197 174 188 202 Other Investing CF 229 0 0 0 Net Investing CF (61,212) (1,813) (984) (898) Div Paid (909) (2,018) (4,265) (4,685) Chg in Gross Debt 17,991 0 0 0 Capital Issues 42,536 0 0 0 Other Financing CF 401 0 0 0 Net Financing CF 60,019 (2,018) (4,265) (4,685) Currency Adjustments 0 0 0 0 Chg in Cash 4,573 2,145 1,296 1,603 Opg CFPS (HK cts) 76.8 69.5 75.6 82.8 Free CFPS (HK cts) (652.3) 45.8 61.7 69.9

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Asset Breakdown

Inventory - 0.2%Bank, Cash and Liquid Assets -

5.2%

Associates'/JVs 3.3%

Net Fixed Assets -88.4%

Debtors - 2.9%

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DBSV recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:

STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)

BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)

HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)

FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)

SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)

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Company Focus

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust

Page 8

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