Hurricanes…no two are the same…

Bill ReadDirector

National Hurricane Center

Category 1

Within 75 miles

Category 2

Within 75 miles

Category 3

Within 75 miles

Category 4

Within 75 miles

Remember the Gulf Developers

• 1932 – TS 180 miles south of GLS – Cat 4 at landfall less than 36h

• 1943 , Alicia – both formed south of NOLA landfall less than 72h

• Audrey June 1957 – Cat 4 less then 72h after forming

• Anita (5), Celia (4), Camille (5) and Opal (4) all less then 96h

Category 2 MOM Galveston Basin

Mostly barrier island and inland marsh inundation

While Surge is our most recent focus, let’s not forget wind

Alicia Andrew

Potential wind threat from a Cat 4 at landfall

>125 mph

110 – 125 mph

90 – 110 mph

75-90 mph55-75 mph

Wind impacts

Rita forecast 150 mph 1 min average winds at landfall.

Gusts range 130-150 mph (1.5 x sustained)

Peak measured Gusts in Ike

The nightmare urban flood

Houston - June 8-9, 2001 Onset during

Friday evening About 2,000,000

folks experienced 10-15” rainfall in 6-12 hours

About 100,000 cars, 50,000 homes flooded

Loss of life (21) miraculously low considering scale of flooding

FRESHWATER 59%

WIND 12%SURF 11%

OFFSHORE 11%

TORNADO 4%OTHER 2%

SURGE 1%

1970-99 U.S. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEATHS

(Pre Katrina)

Over 800 of the 1000 deaths in 2008 were due to rainwater flooding

Reason for large increase

What’s the real hazard?

• We insist on living near the coast• Building codes less than even modest

hurricane winds (consider: Ike top 3 loss list)• Land use tied to the 100 year event - Flood

Insurance not “required” if outside 100 year.• People begin to forget within 5 years (IEM risk

management)

Thanks

…and each one has a unique history