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Hazard and damage potential maps produced by Willis are based on numerical modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation.

Tropical Storm MariaInformation from NHC Advisory 35A, 8:00 AM EDT Thursday September 15, 2011Tropical Storm Maria’s rain-bands are affecting Bermuda. On the forecast track, Maria will quickly pass west of Bermuda later today. There is a possibility that Maria will become a hurricane today, however weakening is forecast thereafter.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall Forecast (NHC)

Max Sustained Wind Speed:

65 mph (tropical storm)

Position Relative to Land: 325 miles WSW of Bermuda

Est. Time & Region: n/aMin Central Pressure: 999 mb Coordinates: 30.9, 67.8 W

Trop. Storm ForceWinds (39+ mph):

205 miles from the center Bearing/Speed: NNE or 15 degrees at 26 mph Est. Max Sustained Wind

Speed: n/a

HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY

eVENT™

Forecast Summary• Within 12 hours, there is a 46% chance Maria will remain a tropical storm (39-73 mph winds), a 54% chance Maria will strengthen to a hurricane

(74+ mph winds) and near 0% chance Maria will weaken to a tropical depression (winds below 39 mph) or dissipate.

• The windfield map – based on the BAMM 06:00 UTC forecast (below right) – shows that this model has forecast the storm’s peak winds at

category 1 hurricane strength (74-95 mph winds). The BAMM – one of many models used by NOAA – has been statistically identified as the

current “best performing” model for Tropical Storm Maria by Kinetic Analysis Corp. Forecast tracks for all current models (All Fcst Tracks) are

shown on the map (in pale gray) to illustrate the uncertainty in Maria’s forecast track.

• Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1-3 inches across Bermuda through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected on

Bermuda later today with hurricane conditions possible.

• The NHC estimates that Bermuda has an 82% chance of experiencing weak tropical storm force winds (39-58 mph) and a 25% chance of

experiencing strong tropical storm force winds (58-73 mph) from Maria within the next 24 hours.

Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Maria(National Hurricane Center)

Forecast Windfield & Rain Footprint for Tropical Storm Maria(Based on BAMM as of 06:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

New YorkNew York

MontrealMontreal

CACA

USUS

Bermuda

09-17

09-16

09-15

0 1,000 2,000500 Miles

weak TSstrong TSCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5All Fcst Tracks

below 1 in1 - 3 in3 - 6 in6 - 9 in9 - 12 in12 - 24 inBAMM FcstTrackNHC FcstTrack

Ï!D TD

Ï!S TS

Ï!1 Cat1

Ï!2 Cat2

Ï!3 Cat3

Ï!4 Cat4

Ï!5 Cat5

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Warnings, Watches and New Tropical Cyclone PotentialA hurricane watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area, in this case within 18 hours – is in effect for Bermuda.A tropical storm warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, in this case within 18 hours – is in effect for Bermuda.

NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone FormationThe map to the right illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical

cyclone formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic.

There is a nearly 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the

yellow region near Africa, within the next 48 hours.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on September 15, 2011

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to DateTropical Storm Activity to DateMaria is the thirteenth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic

Hurricane Season. Eleven named storms, five hurricanes

and four major hurricanes - Danielle, Earl, Igor and Julia -

had occurred by this date last year. The next tropical storm

of 2011 will be named Ophelia.

For the years 1995-2010, the average dates of the fourteenth

and eleventh named storms are Oct 20 and Sep 29,

respectively. Aug 23 and Sep 13 are the average dates of the

second and fifth hurricanes. Sep 9 and Sep 24 are the

average date of the second and fourth major hurricanes.

Benchmarking the 2011 Atlantic Season to DateTropical Storms

Total Hurricanes

Cat 3-5 Hurricanes

2011 year to date (1/1/11 – 9/15/11) 14 2 22010 year to date (1/1/10 – 9/15/10) 11 5 41995-2010 season average 14.4 7.9 3.81950-2010 season average 10.5 6.2 2.72010 CSU season forecasts(Colorado State University at Aug 3)

16 9 5

2010 NOAA season forecasts(NOAAs Climate Prediction Center at Aug 4)

14-19 7-10 3-5

Risk Remaining in the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane SeasonAtlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity

(categories 3-5) both peak in September, as the graph to the

right illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days

with Atlantic hurricane activity at September 15 is 42.9% for all hurricanes and 37.4% for major hurricanes.

Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

0%

12%

24%

36%

48%

60%

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Ave

rage

Dai

ly R

isk

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ave

rage

Rem

aini

ng R

isk

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)