Hurricane Risk in Southeastern MA · 1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD From Pielke et al.,...
Transcript of Hurricane Risk in Southeastern MA · 1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD From Pielke et al.,...
![Page 1: Hurricane Risk in Southeastern MA · 1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD From Pielke et al., 2008 0 50 100 150 200 ) 1901 1906 1 1916 1920 1928 1933 1936 1941 1944 1947 1950](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042313/5edc9badad6a402d6667580e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Jeff Donnelly
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Hurricane Risk in Southeastern MA
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Conditions for genesis
• Warm tropical waters > 26oC, 80oF
• Minimal Wind Shear Aloft
• Prior disturbance
• Coriolis Deflection
What is a tropical cyclone?
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Where do they occur?
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Intensity
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Tropical cyclones come in different sizes
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Recent Hurricane Trends
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What Might the Future Hold?
N. Atl. Tropical Cyclones
N. Atl. Tropical SST
N. Hem. Mean Temp
From
Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012
Nature Climate Change
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What Might the Future Hold?
Frequency of hurricanes
may increase (particularly
intense storms)
“Best Case”
“Worst Case”
Modern
N. Atl. Tropical Cyclones
N. Atl. Tropical SST
N. Hem. Mean Temp
Using IPCC AR4 models
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What Might the Future Hold?
From Emanuel, 2013 PNAS
Using IPCC AR5 models
Frequency of hurricanes
may increase (particularly
intense storms)
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Rate of sea-level rise will continue to accelerate
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Glo
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m)
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C A
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RC
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.5
RC
P 4
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RC
P 2
.6
Global Sea Level
Nat
. C
lim
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ess.
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IPCC AR5
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Coastal Population Growth
0
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100000
150000
200000
250000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Po
pu
lati
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Year CE
Barnstable County Population 1900-2010
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Coastal Population Growth
Falmouth 1886 Falmouth 2015
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1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
From Pielke et al., 2008
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1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
But what if these storms were to strike today?
From Pielke et al., 2008
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1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
Damage accounting for increased wealth and population
From Pielke et al., 2008
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ma
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1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
Damage accounting for increased wealth and population
From Pielke et al., 2008
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lve
sto
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easo
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SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above astronomical tide)
Monthly highest water Woods Hole tide gauge (above MHW)
SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above MHW)
Boldt et al. (2010)
0
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Sandy
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Woods Hole, MA
Instrumental record of coastal Inundation
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Sea Level Histories
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Modeling future sea level changes
From Kopp et al. submitted
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1938
1869
1954 1960 1944
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
Red = cat 3
Black = cat 1 and 2
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1938
1869
1954 1960 1944
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
Red = cat 3
Black = cat 1 and 2
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John Winthrop (Governor of Massachusetts Bay Colony) “The tide rose at Narragansett fourteen feet higher than ordinary, and drowned eight Indians flying from their wigwams”
William Bradford (Governor of Plymouth Colony) “…a mighty storm of wind and rain as none living in these parts, either English or Indians ever saw” “It caused the sea to swell to the south wind of this place above 20 foot right up and down, and made many of the Indians to climb into trees for their safety” “It blew down many hundred thousands of trees, turning up the stronger by the roots and breaking the higher pine trees off in the middle”
Storm surge from the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635
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Storm surge from the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635
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1938
1869
1954 1960 1944
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
Red = cat 3
Black = cat 1 and 2
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Hurricane Bob (1991) Storm Surge
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Falmouth
What if the Hurricane of 1635 Struck Again?
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-5
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Wate
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et)
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Hydrograph for 1635 like storm
Falmouth surge
Bourne surge
What if the Hurricane of 1635 Struck Again?
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Falmouth
What if the Hurricane of 1815 Struck Again?
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Falmouth
What if the Hurricane of 1815 Struck Again?
Providence in 1815
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Falmouth
What if the Hurricane of 1815 Struck Again?
Providence in 1815
Storm tide came within 15 inches of breaching isthmus
where the canal is now (was over 20 feet above sea level)
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Falmouth
What if the Hurricane of 1938 Struck Again?
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Falmouth
What if Hurricane Bob Struck Again?
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High-Resolution Sediment Records
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High-Resolution Sediment Records
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Salt Pond Reconstruction
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Mattapoisett Marsh
Salt Pond Reconstruction
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Salt Pond Reconstruction
Thatchpoint Bluehole
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Climate Forcing
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Climate Forcing
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Climate Forcing
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Past intervals of heightened hurricane activity appear
to be associated with warm sea surface temperatures
Increased hurricane activity along the eastern US
seaboard is possible (perhaps even likely) in the
coming decades
The impacts of future hurricane activity will be
greatly exacerbated by continuing sea-level rise
and coastal population growth, regardless of whether
or not we experience significant increases in
hurricane landfalls
Summary
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For more info see:
www.whoi.edu/science/GG/coastal/
Thank you!