Hurricane Flooding in West Virginiapages.geo.wvu.edu/~kite/2006 Fall GEO493GHurricaneFloods.pdf ·...
Transcript of Hurricane Flooding in West Virginiapages.geo.wvu.edu/~kite/2006 Fall GEO493GHurricaneFloods.pdf ·...
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Hurricane Flooding in
West VirginiaJ. Steve Kite
WVU Geology & GeographyRevised 31 Oct 06
John Warner Photo Cheat River Bridge, St. George
Teets & Young, 1985
Plan of Attack• Hurricane Basics• Do Bad Floods Occur in “Hurricane Season?”• Survey Worst Historic Floods in W.Va.• Which Were Caused by Hurricanes?• What is Worst-Case Scenario Indicated by Other
Floods in Central Appalachians?
Drawing from Harper's Weekly, Historic Photo Collection, Harpers Ferry NHP 1870, Harpers Ferry
Hurricane Fran, Harpers Ferry, 8 September 1996 Photo by Terry Adams, National Park Service.
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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane ScaleTropical Storm — winds 39-73 mph
Hurricane Categories:
1 — winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
2 — winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
3 — winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
4 — winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
5 — winds >156 mph (>135 kt)
“Hurricanes” in this Talk Includes Tropical Cyclones & Organized Remnants of Hurricanes & Tropical Cyclones
Source: http://www.edgetech-us.com/Map/MapHurriZone.htm
W. Va. Flood Inventory Project
• 10 Worst Floods List for W. Va. Encyclopedia– List of ~144 Floods that Probably
Include the 10 Worst in WV History
• Survey Worst Historic Floods in W.Va.
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W. Va. Flood Inventory
• 144 (+ 2) W.Va. Floods• 21 Predate NOAA Hurricane Maps• 119 Compared to Hurricane Maps
(Dates Too Poorly Known on Other 4 Floods)–61 (>50%) in June-Nov–14 Floods Associated with “Hurricanes”
• 7 In Sept, 4 in Aug, 2 in Oct, 1 in Nov, 1 in June–6 Possibly Associated with “Hurricanes”
• Secondary Cause? - More Research Needed
10 Most Deadly Floods in W. Va.• Ignores Deaths in Other States• W. Va. Damage Separated Out Where Possible • Many Terrible Floods Hit W.Va., but Left Most
Death & Destruction Elsewhere– Johnstown Flood, May 1889, >2200 Dead – March 1913: >467 Dead, $2,700,000,000 ($ 2003)– March 1936: 107 Dead, $3,600,000,000 ($ 2003)– Jan 1937: 137 Dead, $5,400,000,000 ($ 2003),
1,500,000 homeless, record WV flow: 654,000 ft3/s(Ohio River at Huntington)
2003 $ WV Damage
$ WV Damage
WV DeadDetailsLocationMo-DayYr
>12,500,000>650,00019-21
19.5 “ Rain in 2 hr 10 min
Rockport area Wood, Jackson, Ritchie, Wirt co.
July 181889
33,800,0002,500,00020+6.5“ rain in 3.5 hr. Floods, landslides.
Paint, Cabin, Armstrong crk.
July 10-111932
19,900,0003,238,000225.74" rain in 4 hr. Floods, debris flows
Charleston esp.Magazine HollowJuly 191961
13,800,0001,300,00023Violent T-storm:up to 15" in 2 hr.
Little Kanawha R. +Aug 4-51943
30,700,0004,020,00035Torrential rains: 7 to 8" in 5 hr.
North-Central WV
June 24-26
1950
5,600,000300,000~39“Most appalling cloudburst” ~ 2 hr.
Cardwell Run + Ohio Co.July 191888
68,000,0005,000,00043>8” rain in 48 hr. No Potomac flood!
Shenandoah R, Harpers Fy.Sep 301870
1,025,000,000600,000,00047Trop. L after H. Juan, 4-10”/ 48 hr.Eastern WV +Nov 4-61985
85,000,0005,000,000>60Cloudburst: 6” rain. H1, H3 SE US JulyCabin Crk. +Aug 91916
>220,000,000>50,000,000125Coal Refuse Dam failed, ~3.5” in 48 hr
Buffalo Crk., Logan Co.
Feb 261972
Difficult toCompare
Different Eras
1800s’ Stigma=
2000s’ Windfall
Flood Damage
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2003 $ WV Damage
$ WV Damage
WV DeadDetailsLocationMo-DayYr
>12,500,000>650,00019-21
19.5 “ Rain in 2 hr 10 min
Rockport area Wood, Jackson, Ritchie, Wirt co.
July 181889
33,800,0002,500,00020+6.5“ rain in 3.5 hr. Floods, landslides.
Paint, Cabin, Armstrong crk.
July 10-111932
19,900,0003,238,000225.74" rain in 4 hr. Floods, debris flows
Charleston esp.Magazine HollowJuly 191961
13,800,0001,300,00023Violent T-storm:up to 15" in 2 hr
Little Kanawha R. +Aug 4-51943
30,700,0004,020,00035Torrential rains: 7 to 8" in 5 hr.
North-Central WV
June 24-26
1950
5,600,000300,000~39“Most appalling cloudburst” ~ 2 hr
Cardwell Run + Ohio Co.July 191888
68,000,0005,000,00043>8” rain in 48 hr. No Potomac flood!
Shenandoah R, Harpers Fy.Sep 301870
1,025,000,000600,000,00047Trop. L after H. Juan, 4-10”/ 48 hrEastern WV +Nov 4-61985
85,000,0005,000,000>60Cloudburst: 6” rain. H1, H3 SE US JulyCabin Crk. +Aug 91916
>220,000,000>50,000,000125Coal Refuse Dam failed, ~3.5” in 48 hr
Buffalo Crk., Logan Co.
Feb 261972Adjust
for Inflation to 2003 $
Using Index by
Robert Sahr
Oregon State 2005
http://www.orst.edu/dept/pol_sci/fac/sahr/sahr.htm
2003 $ WV Damage
$ WV Damage
WV DeadDetailsLocationMo-DayYr
>12,500,000>650,00019-21
19.5 “ Rain in 2 hr 10 min
Rockport area Wood, Jackson, Ritchie, Wirt co.
July 181889
33,800,0002,500,00020+6.5“ rain in 3.5 hr. Floods, landslides.
Paint, Cabin, Armstrong crk.
July 10-111932
19,900,0003,238,000225.74" rain in 4 hr. Floods, debris flows
Charleston esp.Magazine HollowJuly 191961
13,800,0001,300,00023Violent T-storm:up to 15" in 2 hr.
Little Kanawha R. +Aug 4-51943
30,700,0004,020,00035Torrential rains: 7 to 8" in 5 hr.
North-Central WV
June 24-26
1950
5,600,000300,000~39“Most appalling cloudburst” ~ 2 hr.
Cardwell Run + Ohio Co.July 191888
68,000,0005,000,00043>8” rain in 48 hr. No Potomac flood!
Shenandoah R, Harpers Fy.Sep 301870
1,025,000,000600,000,00047Trop. L after H. Juan, 4-10”/ 48 hrEastern WV +Nov 4-61985
85,000,0005,000,000>60Cloudburst: 6” rain. H1, H3 SE US JulyCabin Crk. +Aug 91916
>220,000,000>50,000,000125Coal Refuse Dam failed, ~3.5” in 48 hr
Buffalo Crk., Logan Co.
Feb 261972
2003 $ WV Damage
WV DeadDetailsLocationMo-DayYr
5,600,000~39“Most appalling
cloudburst” ~ 2 hr.Cardwell Run
+ Ohio Co.July 191888
68,000,00043>8” rain in 48 hr. No
Potomac flood!Shenandoah
R, Harpers Fy.Sep 301870
1,025,000,00047Trop. L. after H. Juan
4-10” in 48 hrEastern WV +Nov 4-61985
85,000,000>60Cloudburst: 6” rain. H1, H3 SE US JulyCabin Crk. +Aug 91916
>220,000,000125Coal Refuse Dam
failed, ~3.5” in 48 hrBuffalo Crk., Logan Co.Feb 261972
Five Most Deadly Floods in West Virginia
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2003 $ WV Damage
WV DeadDetailsLocationMo-DayYr
5,600,000~39“Most appalling
cloudburst” ~ 2 hr.Cardwell Run
+ Ohio Co.July 191888
68,000,00043>8” rain in 48 hr. No
Potomac flood!Shenandoah
R, Harpers Fy.Sep 301870
1,025,000,00047Trop. L. after H. Juan
4-10” in 48 hrEastern WV +Nov 4-61985
85,000,000>60Cloudburst: 6” rain. H1, H3 SE US JulyCabin Crk. +Aug 91916
>220,000,000125Coal Refuse Dam
failed, ~3.5” in 48 hrBuffalo Crk., Logan Co.Feb 261972
Five Most Deadly Floods in West Virginia
Which Floods Have a “Hurricane” as Primary Cause?
2003 $ WV Damage
WV DeadDetailsLocationMo-DayYr
5,600,000~39“Most appalling
cloudburst” ~ 2 hr.Cardwell Run
+ Ohio Co.July 191888
68,000,00043>8” rain in 48 hr. No
Potomac flood!Shenandoah
R, Harpers Fy.Sep 301870
1,025,000,00047Trop. L. after H. Juan
4-10” in 48 hrEastern WV +Nov 4-61985
85,000,000>60Cloudburst: 6” rain. H1, H3 SE US JulyCabin Crk. +Aug 91916
>220,000,000125Coal Refuse Dam
failed, ~3.5” in 48 hrBuffalo Crk., Logan Co.Feb 261972
Five Most Deadly Floods in West Virginia
Which Floods Have a “Hurricane” as Contributing Cause?
2003 $ WV Damage
WV DeadDetailsLocationMo-DayYr
5,600,000~39“Most appalling
cloudburst” ~ 2 hr.Cardwell Run
+ Ohio Co.July 191888
68,000,00043>8” rain in 48 hr. No
Potomac flood!Shenandoah
R, Harpers Fy.Sep 301870
1,025,000,00047Atlantic Trop. Low
4 to 6” after H. JuanEastern WV +Nov 4-61985
85,000,000>60Cloudburst: 6” rain. H1, H3 SE US JulyCabin Crk. +Aug 91916
>220,000,000125Coal Refuse Dam
failed, ~3.5” in 48 hrBuffalo Crk., Logan Co.Feb 261972
Five Most Deadly Floods in West VirginiaWhich Floods Have a “Hurricane” as Contributing Cause?
Photos Copyright © 2001 Chesapeake & Ohio Historical Society.
Hurricane Cause is a “Stretch” at Best!
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2003 $ WV Damage
WV DeadDetailsLocationMo-DayYr
5,600,000~39“Most appalling
cloudburst” ~ 2 hr.Cardwell Run
+ Ohio Co.July 191888
68,000,00043>8” rain in 48 hr. No
Potomac flood!Shenandoah
R, Harpers Fy.Sep 301870
1,025,000,00047Trop. L. after H. Juan
4-10” in 48 hrEastern WV +Nov 4-61985
85,000,000>60Cloudburst: 6” rain. H1, H3 SE US JulyCabin Crk. +Aug 91916
>220,000,000125Coal Refuse Dam
failed, ~3.5” in 48 hrBuffalo Crk., Logan Co.Feb 261972
Five Most Deadly Floods in West Virginia
Which Floods Have a “Hurricane” as Contributing Cause?
1985 Flood Books
Popular “Myth” of Hurricane Juan Route, 1985
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Albright: Before & After The 1985 Flood
1 Nov
30 Oct
31 Oct
Path of Hurricane Juan
Oct-Nov 1985
Juan Was Off Map By
2 Nov 48 Hrs
Before Flood
Path of Hurricanes Bob (July) Danny (Aug) & Juan (Oct-Nov)
1 Nov
30 Oct
31 Oct
Path of Hurricanes Bob (July)
Danny (Aug)&
Juan (Oct-Nov)
1985
24 Jul
25 Jul 18 Aug
19 Aug
20 Aug
17 Aug
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“Bob
”
“Dan
ny”
“Juan”= O
pening Act
Map Source: Collucci et al. 1993; USGS Bull. 1981.
Collucci et al. 1993; USGS Bull. 1981.
>200 mm (>7.9”)
48 Hr Rainfall (3-5 Nov 1985)
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Hurricane Juan “Myth Busted”
1985 Flood Mainly Caused by 3-5 Nov Tropical Storm
Not Hurricane Juan
Conditions that Favored Hurricane Juan also Favored Tropical Storm.
2003 $ WV Damage
WV DeadDetailsLocationMo-DayYr
>12,500,00019-2119.5 “ Rain in 2 hr 10 min
Rockport area Wood, Jackson, Ritchie, Wirt co.
July 181889
33,800,00020+6.5“ rain in 3.5 hr.
Floods, landslides.Paint, Cabin,
Armstrong crk. July 10-111932
19,900,000225.74" rain in 4 hr.
Floods, debris flowsCharleston esp.Magazine HollowJuly 191961
13,800,00023Violent T-storm:up to 15" in 2 hr.
Little Kanawha R. +Aug 4-51943
30,700,00035Torrential rains: 7 to 8" in 5 hr.
North-Central WV
June 24-261950
Most Deadly Floods # 6 - # 10 in West Virginia
2003 $ WV Damage
WV DeadDetailsLocationMo-DayYr
>12,500,00019-2119.5 “ Rain in 2 hr 10 min
Rockport area Wood, Jackson, Ritchie, Wirt co.
July 181889
33,800,00020+6.5“ rain in 3.5 hr.
Floods, landslides.Paint, Cabin,
Armstrong crk. July 10-111932
19,900,000225.74" rain in 4 hr.
Floods, debris flowsCharleston esp.Magazine HollowJuly 191961
13,800,00023Violent T-storm:up to 15" in 2 hr.
Little Kanawha R. +Aug 4-51943
30,700,00035Torrential rains: 7 to 8" in 5 hr.
North-Central WV
June 24-261950
Most Deadly Floods # 6 - # 10 in West Virginia
Which Floods Have a “Hurricane”as Primary or Contributing Cause?
None
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18891870
1961
1943
1950
19161932
1972
1888
1985
Approximate Location of 10 Most Lethal W.Va. Floods
Top 10 Lethal W.Va. Floods Summary
• Distributed over State & Generations• >5.5” Rain in <48 Hr - Except Buffalo Crk• Most: 2 to 6 Hour Downpour• All = “Flash Floods”• 7 in Summer
– 4 in mid-July: 2 on July 19th
• None in March 1 to April 10!• Lethal Floods Not = USGS Record Floods
• Hurricanes are Not Worst Flood Killers
WEEKLY SUMMARY OF PEAK FLOWS IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan 1-
7
Jan 22
-28
Feb 12
-18
Mar
5-11
Mar
26-A
pr 1
Apr 16-2
2
May
7-13
May
28-Ju
n 3
Jun 18
-24
Jul 9
-15
Jul 3
0-Aug 5
Aug 20-2
6
Sep 10
-16
Oct 1-7
Oct 22
-28
Nov 12
-18
Dec 3-
9
Dec 24
-31Jan Dec
Freq
uenc
y
0
40
80
120
160
Mar May Jul OctJunFeb Apr Aug Sep Nov
Qmax Week by Week: All Events
Hurricane Season
USGS Gauge Records Data Through ~1989
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•Which Floods Were Caused by Hurricanes?
$3,370,000,00051IsabelPendleton & other counties
19 Sep 2003
$8,900,000,000 +$14,200,000,000
25Frances + IvanNorthern Panhandle + 18 Other Counties
8-17 Sep 2004
Hurricane 8Shenandoah, Potomac
12-16 Oct 1942
>$700,000,000 (2,400,000,000?)
99HazelWidespread, incl. Preston, Tucker co.
13-17 Oct 1954
>$7,000,000,000200DianeRed Ck., Dry Fk. Tucker Co.
17 Aug 1955
$580,000,000In VA, WV
153 in VA
CamilleGreenbrier Co.19-20 Aug 1969
$17,700,000,000117Agnes + LRegional20-25 Jun 1972
$2,344,000,00022FranShenandoah, Potomac, Greenbrier
8 Sep 1996
Total US 2003 $US
DeadDetailsLocationDate
Other Important Hurricane Floods in WV
$395,000,00040Hurricane 1 + T.S.2
New, Kanawha River11-17 Aug 1940
East Coast Hurricane; Ohio R. flowed upstream
Kanawha record below Charleston, Elk, Little Kanawha, Gauley records
29 Sep 1861
Hurricane in Eastern WV
New, Kanawha record above Charleston, So. Branch Potomac
13-15 Sep 1878
Hurricane in VA, MD
Potomac, Shenandoah
30 Sep - 1 Oct 1896
$90,000,000T.S. 3?No. Panhandle3 Sep 1912
Hurricane in VA
New, Cherry2-3 Oct 1929
Total 2003 $Total DeadDetailsLocationDate
1870
1916
19851942
Approximate Location of “Hurricane” W.Va. Floods
1996
1969
1972
19551954
19401878
18611929
19122004
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Hurricane Floods Summary• Concentrated in Eastern W.Va.
– New-Greenbrier-Kanawha: 8 Events– Shenandoah-Potomac: 5 Events– Tucker County: 3 Events
• Few Concentrated in Western W.Va. – (1861, 1912, 1916?)
• Great Damage Regionally, but …• Fatalities Vary
Impact of “Hurricane” on West Virginia May Not Correlate to
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Travel Rate is Important Because it Determines Rain Amount & Intensity
Additional Moisture Sources Critical for Big, Bad Floods
IVANCategory 3 at Landfall in 2004
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Hurricane Ivan
Approaches Cold Front
4:20 p.m. 16 Sept 2004
FL
LA
MI
IVAN
COLD FRONT
WI
Gumley, Liam, 2005,MODIS Image Gallerywww.ssec.wisc.edu/
~gumley/modis_gallery/
Paths: Ivan
Follows Francis
Hurricane Ivan Rainfall Map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prelims/2004ivan12.gif
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Hurricane Ivan Rainfall Map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prelims/2004ivan12.gif
313,000 ft3/s
Ohio River @ Sewickley, PA Sept 2004
~3 days from peak to 100,000 ft3/s
HurricaneIvan
HurricaneFrances
Steep Falling Limb for Ohio River Flood: Led to Many River-Bank Failures
Ohio River @ Sewickley, PA June 1972372,000 ft3/s
>13 days from peak to 100,000 ft3/s
HurricaneAgnes
More Typical Ohio River Falling Limb
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LandslideSt. Marys, WV
Sept 2004J.S. Kite Photo
St. Marys, WVSept 2004
J.S. Kite Photo
St. Marys, WVSept 2004
J.S. Kite Photo
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Hugo (Category 4 at Landfall in 1989)
Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1989hugo.html
Hurricane Hugo (1989)
Category 4 at Landfall -135 mph winds, 934 mbpressure
$10,000,000,000 Damage: Most $ in US History (…until Andrew, 1992)
92 Dead in Puerto Rico & Mainland USA
Directly Over W.Va.Result?
Guyandotte River at Baileyville, 1989 Flows
Hur
rican
e H
ugo
1989 FLOW ON GUYANDOTTE RIVER NEAR BAILYVILLE, WV
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GUYANDOTTE RIVER NEAR BAILEYSVILLE 2001 vs. 1989
Hug
o 68
0 ft3 /s
22 Sep
21 Sep
23 Sep
> 50 mphPath of
Hurricane Hugo 1989
Hurricane Camille, Nelson Co., VA 1969Hurricane Camille
(1969)
Category 5 at Landfall -190-200 mph winds, 909 mb pressure
24 foot Storm Surge$1,421,000,000 Damage143 Dead on Gulf CoastDirectly Over W.Va., Va.Result?
Worst-Case Scenario
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• Morgan, B.A., Iovine G., Chirico, P., and WIECZOREK, G.F., 1999, Inventory of Debris Flows and Floods in the Lovingston and Horseshoe Mountain, Va, 7.5' Quadrangles, from the August 19/20, 1969, Storm in Nelson County, Virginia, USGS Open-file Report 99-518, URL: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1999/ofr-99-0518/ofr-99-0518.html
Hurricane Camille8 Hour Precipitation
W.Va. 50 miles
Virginia Division of Mineral Resources, 2005, Landslides & Debris Flow, URL: www.mme.state.va.us/Dmr/DOCS/Hazard/slide.html
153 Dead or Missing in VA 126 Nelson County Residents (> 1 % of county.)
54 Killed along 4-Mile Stretch of Davis Creek
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Wieczorek, G.F., Mossa, G.S., Morgan, B. A., 2004, Regional debris-flow distribution and preliminary risk assessment from severe storm events in the Appalachian Blue Ridge Province, USA: Landslides, v. 1, p. 33-59. URL: http://landslides.usgs.gov/docs/wieczorek/blueridge_sm.pdf
Shaded relief map: Debris flows (red) & flooding (orange)Nelson County, Virginia, August 19–20, 1969Wieczorek et al., 2004, Landslides, 1: 33-59
Worst-Case “Hurricane” ScenarioInteraction of Hurricane Remnants with
Another Storm or Unstable Moist Air
Training Thunderstorms Stall Over a Small Area
Rain 15-20 Inches in 3-6 hrs in Mountains
(Mine Spoil Could Make it Even Worse)