HUNTSVILLE PARTMENT ARKET...
Transcript of HUNTSVILLE PARTMENT ARKET...
a Berkshire Hathaway and Leucadia National company
HUNTSVILLE APARTMENTMARKET OVERVIEW
PRESENTED BY DAVID D. WILSON, MAIFOR THE
APARTMENT ASSOCIATION OF NORTH ALABAMAOCTOBER 15, 2015
WHO IS BERKADIA?
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Nation’s Largest Brokerage Company exclusively focused on Multifamily Investment Sales
The Nation’s Largest Multifamily Investment Banking Company
Best Capitalized Non-Regulated Commercial Mortgage Banking Company in the US
ONE STOP SHOP Acquisitions Dispositions Financing Equity Placement Advisory Research Servicing
NATIONWIDE OFFICES
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75 Offices 225 Producers 1,200+ Employees
BERKADIA ALABAMA
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6 Investment Brokers
2 Mortgage Bankers
Support Staff
Alabama Office +
Marketing and Research Center
+India Support
INVESTMENT SALES TEAM
WHAT WE’LL COVER TODAY
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Employment in Huntsville New Construction Market Fundamentals Apartment Sales Major Renovation Projects Conclusions / Outlook
EMPLOYMENT IN HUNTSVILLE
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TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, LABOR FORCE & UNEMPLOYMENTMADISON COUNTY, ALABAMA
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0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
145,000
150,000
155,000
160,000
165,000
170,000
175,000
LABOR FORCE EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
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YTD Job Growth Up 3,600 Jobs 12 Month Growth Up 2,300 Jobs Majority of Growth from:
Construction Education Health Services
NEW CONSTRUCTION
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NEW SUPPLY – HISTORY GRAPH
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 15Affordable 208 0 0 80 0 112 0 86 64 56 0 80Conventional 655 355 72 160 860 781 644 0 189 538 557 627
0
100
200
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400
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1000
NEW UNIT DELIVERIES - HISTORYHuntsville/Madison, Alabama
as of October 1, 2015
Conventional Affordable
PIPELINE SUMMARY
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HUNTSVILLE AREA PIPELINE
as of October 1, 2015
STATUS TOTAL PROPERTIES TOTAL UNITS COMMENTS
Actively Under Construction 12 1,306 2 are LIHTC properties (128 units)
Future Starts 4 671 1 is LIHTC property (60 units)
Future Starts (Land in Inventory) 3 704 All conventional
Subtotal 7 1,375
Source: David D. Wilson, MAI
NEW SUPPLY – PIPELINE | STARTS
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HUNTSVILLLE AREA PIPELINEActively Under Construction - Started
as of October 1, 2015
Project Name SubmarketUnits to be Delivered 1st Deliveries Comments
Total Units Upon
Completion1 Limestone Creek, III West Huntsville 72 Spring 2016 Class B 5472 Bridges at Research Park West Huntsville 84 Summer 2016 Class A- 1563 Addison Park West Huntsville 24 Spring 2016 Class A- 4804 Cottages at Watercress, II West Huntsville 42 Summer 2016 Class A, 1 and 2 story 825 Lodge at Johns Road West Huntsville 83 Fall 2015 Senior 836 Villas at Nature Walk, II West Huntsville 112 Fall 2015 Class A, 1-story 1967 Capital Park at 72 West Huntsville 185 Aug 2015 Class A 2338 The Avenue Downtown Huntsville 186 Late 2016 Class A urban 1869 Providence Place, II West Huntsville 90 Late 2016 Class A 9010 Modern at Providence West Huntsville 300 Late 2016 Class A, big-house 300
Subtotal 1,178
1 Clarkston Square SE Huntsville 56 Spring 2016 LIHTC elderly 562 Flint River Apartments SE Huntsville 72 Summer 2016 LIHTC family 72
Subtotal 128
TOTAL 1,306
Source: David D. Wilson, MAI
COTTAGES AT WATERCRESS
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VILLAS AT NATURE WALK
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LEGACY AT JONES FARM
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THE LODGE AT JOHNS ROAD (SENIOR 55+)
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NEW SUPPLY – PIPELINE | FUTURE
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HUNTSVILLLE AREA PIPELINE
Future Starts
as of October 1, 2015
Project Name Submarket Units Start Date Comments
Future Starts / Near-Term1 Limestone Creek, IV+ West Huntsville 331 TBD Class B2 Addison Park West Huntsville 120 TBD Class A-3 City Center Downtown 160 TBD Class A urban
Subtotal 611
1 Lenox Park North Huntsville 60 4Q 2015 LIHTC elderlySubtotal 60
TOTAL 671
Future Starts / Land Held in Inventory / Timing Dependent on Market1 Arbor of River Landing West Huntsville 348 TBD Land held in inventory for years2 Legacy at Jones Farm, II SE Huntsville 252 Uncertain Start depends on market3 Hampton Falls, II SE Huntsville 104 Uncertain Land held in inventory for years
TOTAL 704
Source: David Wilson, MAI
NEW SUPPLY COMMENTS / OUTLOOK
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Huntsville’s pipeline now includes several “niche” properties ranging from Class A single-story to seniors only. It also includes some low-cost and limited amenity product.
Due to robust multifamily construction pipelines in many markets across the state and region, the workload for architects, general contractors and sub-contractors has reached a point driving labor and mobilization costs dramatically higher in recent years.
These labor challenges and rising costs should slow the pace of new construction starts over the near-term and makes feasibility of new projects even more difficult.
HUNTSVILLE AREAMARKET FUNDAMENTALS
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OCCUPANCY & RENT TRENDSHUNTSVILLE, ALABAMA
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$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
90.0%
91.0%
92.0%
93.0%
94.0%
95.0%
Current Period Occupancy Current Period Asking Rent Current Period Effective Rent
Source: Axiometrics
CONCESSION TRENDSHUNTSVILLE, ALABAMA
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$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Current Period Concession Level Current Concession Value
Source: Axiometrics
OCCUPANCY SPOT SURVEY & COMPARISONHUNTSVILLE/MADISON AREA | FALL 2015
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Sample Size Occupancy Rate
Data Set Properties Units Fall 2015 June 2014 Change Absorption
Total Sample 37 8,792 92.6% 92.3% 0.3% 227
Class A 10 2,537 91.5% 87.4% 4.1% 291
Class B 19 5,017 93.2% 94.0% -0.8% -43
Class C 8 1,238 92.6% 94.3% -1.7% -21
Huntsville - SE 9 1,998 93.9% 94.0% -0.1% -2
Huntsville - SW 3 463 95.0% 94.4% 0.6% 3
Huntsville - West 16 4,055 91.0% 91.9% -0.9% 62
Madison Area 9 2,276 94.0% 90.9% 3.1% 165
Sources: Berkadia and David Wilson, MAI for Fall 2015 data | Rock Apartment Advisors for June 2014 data
NEW SUPPLY RENT LEVELS
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The newest top-end Class A product is commanding “weighted average” per SF rents in the following ranges:
Suburban - $1.10 to $1.15 psf (avg. SF 1,000+)
Downtown - up to $1.50+ ps (avg. SF under 850)
APARTMENT SALES
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2015 APARTMENT SALESHUNTSVILLE
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Property Name Area Units Built Occupancy Sale Price Price Per Unit GRM
The Enclave SE 224 1987 95% $12,500,000 $55,804 6.28
The Landing West 168 1989 98% $8,000,000 $47,619 6.19
Governors House West 146 1979 73% $6,909,085 $47,323 6.10
Vanderbilt Manor SE 32 1973-78 78% $1,350,000 $42,188 5.74
Cabana SW 189 1962 99% $6,050,000 $32,011 5.35
Park Place SE 231 1964 Not stable $4,000,000 $17,316 3.10
MAJOR RENOVATION PROJECTS
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PRESERVE AT CRESTWOOD
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Total Units – 160 Year Built – 1955 Owner – Brookside Properties
FERN PARC
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Total Units – 342 Year Built – 1974Purchased – August 2013Owner – Panther Property Investment
FERN PARCINTERIOR RENOVATIONS
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AFTER
THE ENCLAVE (REBRANDED - INDIGO AT GRISSOM)
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Total Units – 224 Year Built – 1987Purchased – April 2015Owner – Brookside Properties
THE ENCLAVEEXTERIOR RENOVATIONS
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BEFORE
AFTER
THE ENCLAVEINTERIOR RENOVATIONS
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AFTER
AFTER
BRIXWORTH AT BRIDGE STREET
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Total Units – 208Year Built – 1986Purchased – October 2013Owner – BRECAP
BRIXWORTH AT BRIDGE STREETEXTERIOR RENOVATIONS
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BEFORE
AFTER
BRIXWORTH AT BRIDGE STREETINTERIOR RENOVATIONS
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BEFORE
AFTER
BEFORE
Total Units – 32Year Built – 1973-78Purchased – May 2015Owner – A Birmingham group
VANDERBILT MANOR
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RENOVATION RENT PREMIUMS
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Several of the most significant renovation projects have achieved rent increases of $125 to $175 per month compared to their pre-renovation rents (transforming properties from Class C to Class B or B+ in the best submarkets).
Several more moderate renovations have resulted in rent premiums of $40 to $60 per month, with select floorplans as high as $75 to $100 (transforming Class B- to B+).
HUNTSVILLE MARKET CONCLUSIONS
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CONCLUSION
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Economic Outlook is Positive Effective Rent Growth 3.3% over the Past Year Concessions Declining Trend Occupancy Change Up 0.5% over the Past Year Sales Very Active, Aggressive Prices Renovations Increasing, Raising the Bar for Class
“B” Rents New Supply Continued Strong Pace
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