Human-induced climate change

Brisbane Mining Club, 21st October 2010Brisbane Mining Club, 21st October 2010

Human-induced climate change

Why I am sceptical

Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide

Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne

Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide

Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne

Ian PlimerIan Plimer

Known CyclesVariable tectonic, PDO

Constant cyclical climate changeConstant cyclical climate change

143 million year galactic

100,000 years orbital

41,000 years orbital

23,000 years orbital

1,500 years solar

210 years solar210 years solar

87 years solar

22 years solar

18.7 years lunar

11 years solar

The next climate change: The

future is written in the past

The next climate change: The

future is written in the past

Pleistocene ice age 110,000 to 14,700 years ago

Bölling 14,700 to 13,900 years ago

Older Dryas 13,900 to 13,600 years ago

Allerød 13,600 to 12,900 years agoAllerød 13,600 to 12,900 years ago

Younger Dryas 12,900 to 11,600 years ago

Holocene warming 11,600 to 8,500 years ago

Egyptian cooling 8,500 to 8,000 years ago

Holocene Warming 8,000 to 5,600 years ago

Akkadian cooling 5,600 to 3,500 years ago

Minoan Warming 3,500 to 3,200 years ago

Bronze Age Cooling 3,200 to 2,500 years ago

Roman Warming 500 BC to 535 AD

Dark Ages 535 AD to 900 AD

Medieval Warming 900 AD to 1300 AD

Little Ice Age 1300 AD to 1850 AD

Modern Warming 1850 AD to ….

Climate change over timeClimate change over time

Is the speed and degree of modern climate change

unprecedented?

Is the speed and degree of modern climate change

unprecedented?

C)

C)

66

44

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)Tem

pera

ture

(°C

) 44

22

00

-2-2

-4-4

-6-6

Today

400400 300300 200200 100100 00

Time – Thousands of Years Before PresentTime – Thousands of Years Before Present

Tem

pera

ture

(Tem

pera

ture

(

-8-8

-10-10

-12-12

Oxygen isotope analysis: ocean proxyfor climate change and global sea-level

Marine isotope Stages 1-11

Thousands of yearsThousands of yearsThousands of yearsThousands of years

16O18O

16O18O

Is the 20th Century temperature outside natural variability? Is the 20th Century temperature outside natural variability?

2020

C p

er

100 Y

ears

C p

er

100 Y

ears

2020

1515

1010

55

00

-5-5

Years BC and ADYears BC and AD

°C p

er

100 Y

ears

°C p

er

100 Y

ears

-5-5

-10-10

Cold snaps, rates of climate changeCold snaps, rates of climate change

Rates of change and CO2Rates of change and CO2

No correlation

i.e. no causation

No correlation

i.e. no causationi.e. no causationi.e. no causation

Cooling with increasing CO2

Cooling with increasing CO2

Post-glacial global (eustatic) sea level:continental margin verification

(Toscana and Macintyre 2003)

Rate of rise^20 cm/century

Rate of rise^200 cm/century

Balding Bay, Great Barrier Reef Balding Bay, Great Barrier Reef Balding Bay, Great Barrier Reef Balding Bay, Great Barrier Reef

coastcoastcoastcoast

Holocenehighstand

oysterbeds

Holocene highstand coral microatolls

Microatolls on dead reef flatOrpheus Island, central GBR

Great Barrier Reef margin

Summary of Holocene

local relative sea-level indicatorslevel indicators

Late Pleistocene (glacial) lowstand shoreline sediments

Lowstand

Highstand

Lowstand

Holocene glacio-isostatic rebound

Uplift rateUplift rateUplift rateUplift rate

4444----20 m/ky20 m/ky20 m/ky20 m/ky4444----20 m/ky20 m/ky20 m/ky20 m/ky

Raised (+30 m) gravel beach ridgesRaised (+30 m) gravel beach ridgesRaised (+30 m) gravel beach ridgesRaised (+30 m) gravel beach ridges

Bannenjar’ga, Porsanger Fjord, NorwayBannenjar’ga, Porsanger Fjord, NorwayBannenjar’ga, Porsanger Fjord, NorwayBannenjar’ga, Porsanger Fjord, Norway

(“Tapes Transgression”, 6,000(“Tapes Transgression”, 6,000(“Tapes Transgression”, 6,000(“Tapes Transgression”, 6,000----7,000 ybp)7,000 ybp)7,000 ybp)7,000 ybp)

Plastic substratePlastic substrate

Crust sinks when loaded

with water, ice, sediment,

Crust sinks when loaded

with water, ice, sediment,

MELTMELTMELTMELT

(solid)(solid)(solid)(solid)

LITHOSPHERELITHOSPHERELITHOSPHERELITHOSPHERE

00000000 1000100010001000 2000200020002000

Temperature Temperature Temperature Temperature °CCCC

SOLIDSOLIDSOLIDSOLID

with water, ice, sediment,

mountains

Crust rises when unloaded

Local crustal sinking (e.g. Holland;

Lydia, Turkey) and crustal rising

with water, ice, sediment,

mountains

Crust rises when unloaded

Local crustal sinking (e.g. Holland;

Lydia, Turkey) and crustal rising

Partial Partial Partial Partial

meltingmeltingmeltingmelting

Fully Fully Fully Fully

moltenmoltenmoltenmolten

(solid)(solid)(solid)(solid)

ROCKY MANTLEROCKY MANTLEROCKY MANTLEROCKY MANTLE

(solid)(solid)(solid)(solid)

LITHOSPHERELITHOSPHERELITHOSPHERELITHOSPHERE

(plastic)(plastic)(plastic)(plastic)

ASTHENOSPHEREASTHENOSPHEREASTHENOSPHEREASTHENOSPHERE

200200200200

100100100100

Zone of Zone of Zone of Zone of

partial partial partial partial

meltingmeltingmeltingmelting

(Scandinavia, Scotland;

Efeses, Turkey)

Global and local sea levels

(Scandinavia, Scotland;

Efeses, Turkey)

Global and local sea levels

km depthkm depthkm depthkm depth

400400400400

300300300300

Regional isostasy & local relative sea-level since 6 ka

Clark, J.A. & Lingle, C.S. 1979 Predicted relative seaClark, J.A. & Lingle, C.S. 1979 Predicted relative seaClark, J.A. & Lingle, C.S. 1979 Predicted relative seaClark, J.A. & Lingle, C.S. 1979 Predicted relative sea----level changes (18,000 Years B.P. to present) caused bylevel changes (18,000 Years B.P. to present) caused bylevel changes (18,000 Years B.P. to present) caused bylevel changes (18,000 Years B.P. to present) caused by

latelatelatelate----glacial retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet. Quaternary Research 11, 279glacial retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet. Quaternary Research 11, 279glacial retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet. Quaternary Research 11, 279glacial retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet. Quaternary Research 11, 279----298. 298. 298. 298.

“Australia and New Zealand surely have a moral responsibility to accept refugees from Pacific Islands inundated by rising sea levels.”

Environmental and climate change refugees by Dr Bryan Furnass. Environmental and climate change refugees by Dr Bryan Furnass. Environmental and climate change refugees by Dr Bryan Furnass. Environmental and climate change refugees by Dr Bryan Furnass. Presented at the Manning Clark House,1 April 2007.

Trend +5.3 mm/yr

Trend +0.9 mm/yr

Sea level changeSea level change

1992-95Global average rise

= 4.6 mm/yr

1992-95Global average rise

= 4.6 mm/yr

1992-98Global average rise= 1.4 to 1 mm/yr

1992-98Global average rise= 1.4 to 1 mm/yr

TOPEX/Poseidon measurements, September 1992 – August 1995(patterns dominated by international ocean variability, e.g. ENSO)TOPEX/Poseidon measurements, September 1992 – August 1995(patterns dominated by international ocean variability, e.g. ENSO)

-60-60 -30-30 00 3030 60 mm/yr60 mm/yr

Holocene scatter of shoreline measurements

TECTONIC UPLIFT RATE

10m/ky

LOCAL RELATIVESEA-LEVEL CURVE

Today’shighstand

LastGlacial

lowstand

Approximate eustatic sea-level curve

We’ll all be roonedWe’ll all be rooned

20002000

Measurement of historic sea levelsMeasurement of historic sea levels

Port Pirie -0.3mm/yr

Sea L

evel (m

m)

Sea L

evel (m

m)

20002000

15001500

10001000

Port Pirie -0.3mm/yr

Port Adelaide Outer Harbour2.4mm/yr

Fort Denison 1.0mm/yr

Sea L

evel (m

m)

Sea L

evel (m

m)

00

500500

18801880 19001900 2000200019201920 19401940 19601960 19801980

Global average of tide gauges for 20th Century sea level rise is 1-2mm/yr (IPCC, 2001)Global average of tide gauges for 20th Century sea level rise is 1-2mm/yr (IPCC, 2001)

Fremantle1.4mm/yr

Southern Oscillation Index

Hansen, 2006Hansen, 2006Hansen, 2006Hansen, 2006

(+6 m in 2100)(+6 m in 2100)(+6 m in 2100)(+6 m in 2100)RSNZ, 2010RSNZ, 2010RSNZ, 2010RSNZ, 2010

Byron BayByron BayByron BayByron Bay

150150150150

140140140140

cmcmcmcmGlobal Mean Sea-level Projections to 2100

to 600to 600to 600to 600

IPCC 2001 range

Byron BayByron BayByron BayByron Bay

CouncilCouncilCouncilCouncil

NSW govt.NSW govt.NSW govt.NSW govt.

Vic. Govt.Vic. Govt.Vic. Govt.Vic. Govt.

Measured Measured Measured Measured

riseriseriserise20202020

90909090

80808080

60606060

Graph after Bob Dedekind

Measurement projectionMeasurement projectionMeasurement projectionMeasurement projection

20202020

STORMS & BEACH EROSION HAPPEN

Get used to it

"Once the weather-related insured losses are normalised, they exhibit no obvious trend over time that might be attributed to other factors, including human-induced climate change.“

Crompton, R. P., and McAneney, K. J.: Normalised Australian insured losses from meteorological hazards: 1967-2006, Environ. Sci. Policy 11: 371-378, 2008.

http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2008.01.005

TemperatureTemperature

Location, location, location…..Location, location, location…..

Urban heat island effectUrban heat island effect

23.523.5

22.022.0

20.020.0

Annual M

ean

Tem

pera

ture

(°F

)A

nnual M

ean

Tem

pera

ture

(°F

) Tucson U of Arizona (32.2N, 111.0W)Tucson U of Arizona (32.2N, 111.0W)

18801880 19001900 19201920 19401940 2000200019601960 19801980 20202020

20.020.0

18.518.5

Annual M

ean

Tem

pera

ture

(A

nnual M

ean

Tem

pera

ture

(

Marysville

(Ca., USA)

Marysville

(Ca., USA)(Ca., USA)(Ca., USA)

Baltimore

(USA)

Baltimore

(USA)(USA)(USA)

Titusville

(Fl., USA)

Titusville

(Fl., USA)(Fl., USA)(Fl., USA)

Sewage works

Winter photograph and IR photograph

Sewage works

Winter photograph and IR photograph

Sydney Observatory 1874 (60,000

people) and 2009 (4.5 M people)

Sydney Observatory 1874 (60,000

people) and 2009 (4.5 M people)

Svalbard

(Norway)

Svalbard

(Norway)(Norway)(Norway)

Rome

(Italy)

Rome

(Italy)

What is really measured?What is really measured?Tem

pera

ture

Tre

nd p

er

Decade

Tem

pera

ture

Tre

nd p

er

Decade 0.80.8

0.70.7

0.60.6

Tem

pera

ture

Tre

nd p

er

Decade

1940 -

1996 (°C

)Tem

pera

ture

Tre

nd p

er

Decade

1940 -

1996 (°C

) 0.60.6

0.40.4

0.30.3

0.20.2

0.50.5

Tem

pera

ture

Tre

nd p

er

Decade

1940

Tem

pera

ture

Tre

nd p

er

Decade

1940

0.20.2

0.10.1

00

-0.1-0.110,00010,000 100,000100,000 1,000,0001,000,000 10,000,00010,000,000

Population of CountryPopulation of Country

Data due diligenceData due diligence

Corrected for urban heat island effect

Lack of primary uncorrected data

Corrected for urban heat island effect

Lack of primary uncorrected data

In USA, 89% land thermometers administered by NOAA fail to meet siting requirements. Abandoned site records used in historical records

In 1980s, >6,000 thermometers

In USA, 89% land thermometers administered by NOAA fail to meet siting requirements. Abandoned site records used in historical records

In 1980s, >6,000 thermometers

Global network of 1,079 official terrestrial thermometers, 54% of which are at airports, >80% in urban areas and greater proportion at lower altitudes and equatorial

Many resited

Global network of 1,079 official terrestrial thermometers, 54% of which are at airports, >80% in urban areas and greater proportion at lower altitudes and equatorial

Many resited

Reliability of surface measurementsReliability of surface measurements

The 28 years of high quality satellite dataThe 28 years of high quality satellite data

Tem

pera

ture

Vari

ati

on (°C

)Tem

pera

ture

Vari

ati

on (°C

) 1.01.0

0.50.5GlobalGlobal

Tem

pera

ture

Vari

ati

on (

Tem

pera

ture

Vari

ati

on (

1.01.0

0.50.5

00

-0.5-0.5

00

-0.5-0.5

1.01.0 Southern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere

Northern HemisphereNorthern Hemisphere

The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years ago,The Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly

The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years ago,The Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly

Tem

pera

ture

Vari

ati

on (

Tem

pera

ture

Vari

ati

on (

19801980 19851985 19901990 20002000 2005200519951995

0.50.5

00

-0.5-0.5

Southern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere

Models for atmospheric temperatureModels for atmospheric temperature

1010

5050

GFDLGFDL1010

5050

NASA/NSIPPNASA/NSIPP

-7-7 -6-6 -5-5 -4-4 -3-3 -2-2 -1-1 00 11 22 33 44 55 66 77

5050

100100

200200

300300

500500700700950950

60°S60°S 30°S30°S EQEQ 30°N30°N 60°N60°N

5050

100100

200200

300300

500500700700950950

60°S60°S 30°S30°S EQEQ 30°N30°N 60°N60°N

1010

NASA/GEOS5NASA/GEOS51010

SNUSNU

Zonally-averaged distributions of predicted temperature change in °K at CO2 doubling (2xCO2-control),as a function of latitude and pressure level, for four general-circulation models (Lee et al., 2007)

Zonally-averaged distributions of predicted temperature change in °K at CO2 doubling (2xCO2-control),as a function of latitude and pressure level, for four general-circulation models (Lee et al., 2007)

5050

100100

200200

300300

500500700700950950

60°S60°S 30°S30°S EQEQ 30°N30°N 60°N60°N

5050

100100

200200

300300

500500700700950950

60°S60°S 30°S30°S EQEQ 30°N30°N 60°N60°N

Radiosonde measurementsRadiosonde measurements

2525

hPahPa

No “greenhouse warming” signature is observed in realityNo “greenhouse warming” signature is observed in reality

2424

KmKm

2525

5050

100100

200200

300300

2424

2020

1616

1212

75°N75°N 75°S75°S45°N45°N 30°N30°N 15°N15°N EQEQ 45°S45°S30°S30°S15°S15°S

300300

500500

700700

10001000

88

44

Source: HadAT2 radiosonde observations, from CCSP (2006), p116, fig. 5.7ESource: HadAT2 radiosonde observations, from CCSP (2006), p116, fig. 5.7E

Derived atmospheric temperaturesDerived atmospheric temperatures

Derived from what?Derived from what?

Wind shear α temperature

Why not just use existing

temperature measurements

Warming?

Wind shear α temperature

Why not just use existing

temperature measurements

Warming?

Colour code: red = no change,

blue = cooler

Colour code: red = no change,

blue = cooler

Argo buoysArgo buoys

CO2 MeasurementsCO2 Measurements

ChemicalChemical(Beck 2007)(Beck 2007)

IsotopicIsotopic(Ice core, Antarctica Schneider et al., 2006)(Ice core, Antarctica Schneider et al., 2006)

Infra red, Muana LoaInfra red, Muana Loa(NDIR)(NDIR)

Tem

pera

ture

Anom

aly

(°C

)Tem

pera

ture

Anom

aly

(°C

)

0.20.2

00

CO

2(p

pm

)C

O2

(ppm

)

(Beck 2007)(Beck 2007)(Ice core, Antarctica Schneider et al., 2006)(Ice core, Antarctica Schneider et al., 2006) (NDIR)(NDIR)

450450

410410

370370

450450

Tem

pera

ture

Anom

aly

(Tem

pera

ture

Anom

aly

(

-0.2-0.2

-0.4-0.4

18001800 18501850 19001900 19501950 20002000

YearYear

(ppm

)(p

pm

)

370370

330330

290290

Water: Main greenhouse gas &

driver of CO2

Water: Main greenhouse gas &

driver of CO2

100%100%0.001%0.001%

Man madeMan made80%80%

60%60%

40%40%

0.001%0.001%Man madeMan made

NaturalNatural

20%20%

0%0%WaterVapourWaterVapour

CO2CO2 MethaneMethane N2ON2O MiscGasesMisc

Gases

0.117%0.117% 0.066%0.066% 0.047%0.047% 0.047%0.047%

Doubling CO2 at 385ppm

has no effect

Doubling CO2 at 385ppm

has no effect

1.61.6

The warming effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide The warming effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

1.61.6

1.41.4

1.21.2

1.01.0

0.80.8

0.60.6

Atmospheric carbon dioxide in ppmAtmospheric carbon dioxide in ppm

Tem

pera

ture

(Tem

pera

ture

(

0.60.6

0.40.4

0.20.2

002020 4040 6060 8080 100100120120140140160160180180200200220220240240260260280280300300320320340340360360380380400400420420

Submarine volcanicitySubmarine volcanicity

Terrestrial volcanoes change weather (e.g. Tambora 1815)

Submarine supervolcanoes add heat and CO2 to oceans

64,000 km mid ocean ridges: 10,000

Terrestrial volcanoes change weather (e.g. Tambora 1815)

Submarine supervolcanoes add heat and CO2 to oceans

64,000 km mid ocean ridges: 10,000 45°3

0’N

45°3

0’N

64,000 km mid ocean ridges: 10,000 km3/a of cooling water

Oceans 99% Earth’s volcanoes (>3.4 million seamounts, off axis and axis basaltic volcanoes)

64,000 km mid ocean ridges: 10,000 km3/a of cooling water

Oceans 99% Earth’s volcanoes (>3.4 million seamounts, off axis and axis basaltic volcanoes)

45

45

45°0

0’N

45°0

0’N

Megaplume 2

Recent

Eruptions

Recent

Eruptions

Seafloor SpreadingSeafloor Spreading130°30’W130°30’W 130°00’W130°00’W

45

45

44°3

0’N

44°3

0’N

Megaplume 1

Greenland ice sheetGreenland ice sheet

-30°-30°-32°-32°-34-34

d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994

10per. Mov. Avg (d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994)10per. Mov. Avg (d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994)

Greenland ice sheet change in cm/yrGreenland ice sheet change in cm/yr

80°N80°N

5.4cm/yr

increase*

5.4cm/yr

increase*

YearYear19401940 19551955 19601960 198519851950195019451945 19651965 19601960 19751975 19801980

-40°-40°

-34°-34°-36°-36°-38°-38°

-42°-42°

-29.5-29.5

75°N75°N

70°N70°N

20°W20°W

80°W80°W

30°W30°W

3030 -30-3010102020 -20-2000 -10-101515 -15-1555 -5-5Time – Years Before PresentTime – Years Before Present

10001000 400400 200200 100100600600800800

-29.5-29.5

-32-32

-30-30

-30.5-30.5

-31-31

-31.5-31.5

-32.5-32.5

65°N65°N

60°N60°N

70°W70°W 60°W60°W40°W40°W50°W50°W

*Derived from 11 years of ERS-1/ERS-2 satellite altimeter data, 1992-2003*Derived from 11 years of ERS-1/ERS-2 satellite altimeter data, 1992-2003

Is global warming melting the ice caps and reducing sea ice?

NO!

Is global warming melting the ice caps and reducing sea ice?

NO!

Antarctic Sea Ice TrendsAntarctic Sea Ice Trends1.01.0

0.50.5

00

…. going up!…. going up!

30°W30°W 30°E30°E0°0°

AntarcticPeninsula

AntarcticPeninsula

60°E60°E60°W60°W

00

-0.5-0.5

-1.0-1.0

-1.5-1.5

YearYear

Source: National Snow and Ice data CentreSource: National Snow and Ice data Centre

19781978 19901990 20002000 20062006

150°W150°W

180°180° 150°E150°E

AmundsenSea

AmundsenSea

90°W90°W

120°W120°W

2000 Km2000 Km

120°E120°E

Source: Vaughn, D.G., 2005. Science, 3008, 1877-1878.Source: Vaughn, D.G., 2005. Science, 3008, 1877-1878.

KambIce Stream

KambIce Stream

Antarctic Land Ice TrendsAntarctic Land Ice Trends…. going up over most

of the continent!…. going up over most

of the continent!

Temperature proxy Temperature proxy

H2O(vap) buffer to maximum and minimum temperatureH2O(vap) buffer to maximum and minimum temperature

°C)

°C) 44

22

Tem

pera

ture

(°

Tem

pera

ture

(°

00

22

-2-2

-4-4

-6-6

-8-8

CO

2(p

pm

v)

CO

2(p

pm

v)

280280

240240

260260

220220

Thousands of Years AgoThousands of Years Ago40040000 1001005050 300300250250200200150150 350350

1.5

0

0.5

1.0

Dust

(ppm

)(p

pm

v)

(ppm

v)

200200

220220

Temperature proxyTemperature proxy

Cosmogenic isotopes (C14; also Be10, Al26, Cl36, Ca41, Ti44, I129)Cosmogenic isotopes (C14; also Be10, Al26, Cl36, Ca41, Ti44, I129)

100100

8080

6060

4040

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)Tem

pera

ture

(°C

) -30-30

-20-20

-10-10

10,000BC10,000BC 4,000BC4,000BC 1AD1AD6,000BC6,000BC8,000BC8,000BC 2,000BC2,000BC 2000AD2000AD

4040

2020

00

ModernMaximumModern

MaximumMedievalMaximumMedievalMaximum

DaltonMinimumDalton

Minimum

Calendar Years Before PresentCalendar Years Before Present

Tem

pera

ture

(Tem

pera

ture

(

-10-10

00

1010

202000 300300 500500 700700 11001100200200100100 400400 900900600600 10001000800800

MaunderMinimumMaunderMinimum

SpörerMinimumSpörer

MinimumOort

MinimumOort

Minimum

WolfMinimum

WolfMinimum

MinimumMinimum

Historical timeHistorical time

Populations thrived

in warm times

Populations thrived

in warm timesin warm times

People died in

cold times

300 years of warming

in warm times

People died in

cold times

300 years of warming

It’s easy to stop climate change -

All we have to do is:

It’s easy to stop climate change -

All we have to do is:

STOP bacteria doing what bacteria do

STOP ocean currents changing

STOP bacteria doing what bacteria do

STOP ocean currents changing

STOP plate tectonics and continent movement

STOP orbital changes to Earth

STOP variations in energy released from Sun

STOP orbit of Solar System in Galaxy

STOP plate tectonics and continent movement

STOP orbital changes to Earth

STOP variations in energy released from Sun

STOP orbit of Solar System in Galaxy

STOP supernoval eruptionsSTOP supernoval eruptions

When we’ve stopped these natural processes,

if human-induced then:

PERSUADE China, India and the Third World to stay poor

When we’ve stopped these natural processes,

if human-induced then:

PERSUADE China, India and the Third World to stay poor

A few little problemsA few little problems

Warmings in industrial age (1860-1880, 1910-1940, 1975-1998; CO2

rise only correlates with 1975-1998 warming)

Industrial age coolings when CO increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975,

Warmings in industrial age (1860-1880, 1910-1940, 1975-1998; CO2

rise only correlates with 1975-1998 warming)

Industrial age coolings when CO increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975, Industrial age coolings when CO2 increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975, 1998-present)

Peak of Little Ice Age coolings (Dalton, Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) when few sunspots; 20th Century solar maximum and no sunspots

Pre-industrial Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warmings (with no sea level changes); SL rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of

Industrial age coolings when CO2 increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975, 1998-present)

Peak of Little Ice Age coolings (Dalton, Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) when few sunspots; 20th Century solar maximum and no sunspots

Pre-industrial Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warmings (with no sea level changes); SL rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of level changes); SL rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of 2m over last 6,000 years

Greater past variability and changes

Six of six great ice ages when atmospheric CO2 up to 1000 times higher than now

level changes); SL rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of 2m over last 6,000 years

Greater past variability and changes

Six of six great ice ages when atmospheric CO2 up to 1000 times higher than now

So what…….So what…….

If the planet warms by 0.2°, 2° or 5°C, so what ! (We humans live at sea level, in deserts, the tropics and at altitude. Humans have adapted).

If the planet warms by 0.2°, 2° or 5°C, so what ! (We humans live at sea level, in deserts, the tropics and at altitude. Humans have adapted).

How can a carbon tax in Australia change global climate ?

Why not teach that planet Earth is dynamic ?

Why lead ?

How can a carbon tax in Australia change global climate ?

Why not teach that planet Earth is dynamic ?

Why lead ?

Why not strengthen infrastructure for Australia’s wealth-generating industries ?

Why not strengthen infrastructure for Australia’s wealth-generating industries ?