Human Geography in Action One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in...

Human Geography in Action

One Billion and Counting: The HiddenMomentum of Population Growth in India

Chapter 5

Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India

World Population TrendFigure 5.4

The steep increase beginning around 1700 coincides with the beginnings of what historical period?

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

• Earth’s Population History

– 1 billion reached circa 1830

– 2 billion reached 1930 (100 years later)

– 3 billion reached circa 1929 (29 years later)





What is the present world population?http://www.census.gov/



http://www.census.gov/


World Population TrendFigure 5.1

When is the world population be expected to reach 8 billion? Is the population increasing proportionately in all parts of the world? What are some of the challenges of a growing population?



Population Dynamics

In-migration is important for U.S. population growth, but is less critical for estimates in other countries. Why?


P2 = P1 + B – D + I – O

Where: P1 = population in time 1

P2 = population in time 2

B = birthsD = DeathsI = in-migrantsO = out-migrants


Measures of Population ChangeFigure 5.2

Crude birth rateCrude death rate

Crude rate of natural increase

Why are these rates considered “crude”?



Demographic Transition ModelFigure 5.3

What the main causes of death in the US 200 years ago, and what did society do to address them?

Why does the fall in birth rates lag behind the fall in death rates? Are there countries that do not fit this model very well?



Key Population Indicators for Selected Countries

Table 5.1

Are there any countries still in Stage 1 of the demographic transition? What other countries not shown would you expect to find in Stages 2, 3, and 4?



Contrasting Demographic TransitionsFigure 5.5

Why did the transition from high to low birth and death rates occur much more rapidly in India?



Population Pyramids: Rapid GrowthFigure 5.6

What do the left- and right-hand sides of each pyramid depict? What do the center axis numbers refer to in each population

pyramid? What other countries are in the rapid growth category?



Population Pyramids: Moderate and Slowing Growth

Figure 5.6

What countries are in the moderate (and slowing) growth category?



Population Pyramids: Slow GrowthFigure 5.6

What countries are in the slow growth category?



Population Pyramids: Population Decline

Figure 5.6

What countries are in the population decline category?



Elderly in Italy are 20% of the Total PopulationFigure 5.7

What changes can we expect in Italy's population in the next half century?

What are some of the challenges of a shrinking population?© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

• Make Your Own Population Pyramid:– Canada

–Western United States

– International

Create a population pyramid customized to your state / province / country. Does this pyramid reflect your local reality in your experience? Why or why not?



http://www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/pyca.htm

http://www.centerwest.org/futures/archive/people

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/

• Measures of Fertility:

– Age-specific birth rate

– Total fertility rate

– Replacement fertility rate

– Zero population growth

Compare and contrast “age-specific birth rate” with “crude birth rate.” What is the range of total fertility rates around the world? What is the mathematical definition of “zero population growth?”



• Demographic Momentum:– Occurs in an age structure with a small base and a

large top

– Few elderly at the top

– Many young who will be in reproductive years

– Compare small number of elderly to large number of youth

What shape would a population pyramid be for a country with strong demographic momentum?



Name That Key Term



Number of deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1,000 live births in a year.

Annual number of live births per 1,000 population.

Annual number of deaths per 1,000 population.

The difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate.

All individuals in a certain age range.

The number of births to women in a certain age cohort divided by the number of women in that cohort.

Infant Mortality Rate

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

Crude Death Rate (CDR)

Crude Rate of Natural Increase

Cohort

Age-Specific Birth

Rate



The average number of children a woman would have during her reproductive years assuming the current fertility rates of women across all ages.

The fertility rate at which each female in a population produces on average one female baby who survives to the time when she herself can reproduce.

A state in which the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate equals zero. The number of deaths exactly offsets the number of births.

A state in which forces of change are in balance.

Total Fertility Rate

Replacement Fertility Rate

Zero Population Growth (ZPG)

Equilibrium



A model of population change from an equilibrium with high birth and death rates through a high-growth transition period in which death rates decline sooner than birth rates, to a new equilibrium with low birth and death rates.

A graph showing the number of males and females in discrete age cohorts (age categories).

Continued population growth long after replacement-level fertility rates have been reached.

Scattered settlements of a particular national group living abroad.

Demographic Transition Model

Population Pyramid

Demographic Momentum

Diaspora



Human Geography in Action

• Case Study– Activities

One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India

Chapter 5


After completing this chapter, you will be able to:

• Relate the shape of population pyramids to a country’s birth, death, and growth rates.

• Differentiate population pyramids of countries with rapid, slow, and negative population growth.

• Understand the hidden momentum built into current population pyramids.

• Recognize the hypothetical nature of population

projections.

Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India4



Background on IndiaFigures 5.9 A & B



Total Fertility Rate in India, 1971 to 2011Figures 5.10



Infertility clinics like this one in New Delhi reflect India's shift away from coerced birth control to individual choices. While providing the opportunity for birth control to those who want it, some individuals such as those served by this clinic may be more concerned with the opposite problem—not being able to have any children.



Indian emigrants—diaspora around the world•Commonwealth country laborers•Remittances and development•Destinations today: U.S., Great Britain, Canada, Australia



Implications of population growth in India

•Supplies of freshwater are stretched to the limit•Soil exhaustion and erosion•Cultivating low-lying, hurricane-prone islands•Overgrazing•Protein consumption is 20% below nutritional needs•Unable to provide social services and education•Makeshift housing in squatter settlements

Nonetheless, remarkable economic growth, large middle class, and leadership in the information economy



Figure 5.12



Figure 5.14



Figure 5.15



Activity 1: Matching Demographic Descriptions and Population Pyramids



Activity 2: Demographic Momentum



• Explain how it is possible for a population to continue growing for several generations after women begin averaging only two children each.

• It may be particularly helpful to review your answers for Scenario 2 in Activity 2.


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