Human fertility and it's determinant
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Transcript of Human fertility and it's determinant
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Human Fertility and its Determinants
Sopyan, S.Sos, MA.
National Population and Family Planning Board (BKKBN)
South Kalimantan
December 28, 2011
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F ertility and Fecundity
• Fertility refers to the number of live births a woman has actually
had.
• Fecundity refers to physiologic al capacity to produce a live birt
h.
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Some important concepts
• Marital fertility : the number of live births to married women
• Natural fertility : populations in whi ch no deliberate attempt is made to li mit the number of births
• Reproductive period : A woman’s reproductive period is from menarche to menopause (usually from age 15-49)
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Approaches to fertility level study
• Period fertility : looks at fertility cross- sectionally, that is at births occurring duri
ng a specified period of time, normally oneyear.– Ratio of live birth that occur in a population
during one year period to the population that bears the child
• Cohort fertility : looks at fertility longit udinally, that is at all births occurring to a s
pecific group of women (e.g. all those born or married in particular period of time)
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Some Problems in Measuring Fertility
• It is difficult to establish accurate stati stical records on live births, a child die
s before the birth is registered.• Fertility measurement is complicated
by the fact that fertility involves two parents.
• Not every woman is truly exposed to t he risk of childbearing.
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Sources of data for Fertility Study
• Vital Statistics: Birth Registration• Census• Surveys
• Information on Fertility and it’s determinants usually collected through surveys
• The 1960s onwards saw many large scale international efforts to collect fertility data, ex. WFS (1974-1986), CPS (1977 – 1985), DHS (1984 – Present).
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Basic fertility measurements
• Child/Women Ratio• Crude B irth R ate (CBR)• General Fertility Rate (GFR)• Age Specific Fertility Rate
(ASFR)• Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
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Basic fertility measurement
•Child/Women Ratio
Children aged 0-4
-Womenaged1 5 4 4
Require few information, no data on births are needed
Sensitive to reporting error and infant mortality
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Basic fertility measurement
•Crude birth rate (CBR)
•Why is it “crude” ? ...…..
Number of births in year
Population at mid yearX 1,000
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Basic fertility measurement
•Age specific fertility rate (ASFR)
Births in year to women aged x
Women aged x at mid-year
X 1,000
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Basic fertility measurement
Total fertility rate (TFR)– most widely used by demographer
– TFR : - The average number of live births of a woman (or group of women) during
her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years conforming to th
e age specific fertility rate of a given year.
– Calculate by adding up ASFRs X 5
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Cohort Measurement
Parity Progression Ratio (PPR)– The probability of having another
child given that one has already had a certain number.
– Women in older age group are usually chosen for calculating PPR.
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Reproductivity
• Gross Reproduction Rate– Sum of ASFRs calculated for female
births only
• Net Reproduction Rate– A female born will only replace her
mother provided she live to the age of her mother as on the day that she was born.
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Replacement level fertilty
• The level of fertility at which a couple has only enough children to replace themselves, or about two children per couple. – TFR = ?– GRR = ?– NRR = ?
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Components of fertility
• Biological component– Fecundity : physiological
capacity to produce a live birth
• Social component– different fertility desire in
different society
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Ovulation
Eggs released
Sexual Intercourse
Sperms released
Human reproduction
Egg fertilized by sperm
Conception
Implementation in uterus
Parturition Abortion
Nine months or 280 days
Gestation Period
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Davis and Blake’s Intermediate Variables (1956)
In 1956 Davis and Blake proposed a framework for analyzing the bio-medical determinants of fertility. They identified 11 intermediate variables divided into three blocks.
• Direct effect on fertility• Social factors indirectly effect fertility throug
h the intermediate variables.• Each intermediate variable may have a nega
tive or positive effect on fertility.
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To have a live birth, a woman passes t hrough three stages
• she has sexual intercourse (coitus)
• she become pregnant (conception)
• she successfully completes the period of pregnancy or gestatio
n and gives birth to the child(gestation)
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Davis and Blake’s Intermediate Variables
• Intercourse variables– age of entry in sexual unions– permanent celibacy– amount of reproductive period spent aft
er or between unions– voluntary abstinence– involuntary abstinence (impotence, separation
etc)
– coital frequency
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Davis and Blake’s Intermediate Variables
• Conception variables– fecundity or infecundity (involunt
ary causes e.g. post-partum amenorrhea)
– use or non use of contraception– fecundity or infecundity (voluntar
y causes e.g. sterilization)
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Davis and Blake’s Intermediate Variables
• Gestation variables– Foetal mortality from involuntary
causes– Foetal mortality from voluntary c
auses
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Bongaarts’ Proximate DeterminantsModel of Fertility Analysis
John Bongaarts refined the list of variables to eight proximate determinants
The model focuses on 4 of the proximate determinants. The TFR in any society is a function of the Total Fecundity of a population modified by the levels of the four intermediate variables.
TFR=Cm . Cc . Ci . Ca . TF• Proportion of women married or in sexual unions• use of birth control• breast feeding and lactational amenorrhoea• induced abortion
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Family planning methods
• Modern methods– Female/male sterilisation– Pills – IUD– Injectables– Condom– Norplant
• Traditional methods– Rhythm– Withdrawal– Prolonged breast feeding
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Class Exercise
Please answer the following questions.
• What is the current level of fertility in your province?
• What is the major proximate determinants operating to change fertility in your province? Provide reasons.
• What is major socio-economic variable responsible for changing levels of fertility in your province? Provide reasons.