Huddersfield University21 May 2015

SUSTAINABLE AVIATION

or

HOW AIR TRANSPORT HAS CHANGED OUR WORLD……

FOR GOOD AND BAD

How Air Transport Has Changed Our

Manchester 1900The Industrial Capital of the World

Manchester 1950End of the Industrial Age?

Manchester 2014Post Industrial Knowledge Economy

Air Transport1900, 1950, 2000, 2014

Headline Statistics(www.atag.org)

• 8.7 million direct employment

• 50 million aviation related tourism

• 0.5% world trade shipments (35% by value)

• 1400 airlines

• 25000 aircraft

• 4000 airports

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Direct Jobs

Indirect Jobs• Jobs that support the

aviation industry such as:

– Catering

– Engineering

– Airport hotels

– Taxi firms

– 2 x Direct Jobs

Induced Jobs

• The airport attracts businesses to locate in a region.

• Aviation supports development of an industry (tourism).

Global Trade / Business

• Establishing and maintaining business links

• Global sourcing of skills

Global Sourcing of Goods

Travel for Personal Fulfilment

International Tourism

Accessibility – Some Economies Highly Reliant Upon Aviation

Education and Research

• Economic value

• Student experience

• Global Citizenship

• Speed of scientific development

• MMU - 16% of CO2 international students

The Multicultural Society

Global Cultural Events

• Could not exist in current form without air transport.

• Significant socio-economic benefits for host and wider.

• But what are the climate costs?

Aviation’s Impact upon the Development of Humankind

• Global economy

• Global society.

• International Political Alliances

Aviation, City and Regional Development

• Important to regional competitiveness.

• Key role in knowledge capital• Access to Global economy• Support multicultural society

• In the Global economy of the 21st Century, a World class region needs world class air routes.

Manchester Global Connectivity

Air Travel is Very Attractive to the General Public!

But is this Sustainable in a Low Carbon World?

Sustainable Development Challenge

• The social and economic benefits of air transport are significant.

• BUT the social and environmental costs of air transport are significant also.

• The costs are now threatening the growth of the industry at both a local and global level

• This puts at risk the role that air transport will play in the Global society of 50 years time.

Friday, 24 January 2014 23

Sustainable Development

• Development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

» THE BRUNDTLAND REPORT

A Sustainable Society• ………..is one in which ………..

– Consumption of resources slower than the Earth can produce them

(peak oil).

– Production of wastes is slower than the Earth can ‘absorb’ them (climate

change).

– Physical degradation is minimised.

• and that …..

– Human needs are met worldwide (millions affected by noise).

The Problem is Growth

• The rate of growth is outstripping the rate of technological development and operational improvement with the result that key environmental impacts are likely to grow .

• This trend is unsustainable in the longer term.

Sustainable DevelopmentCompensating for Growth

27

Airport Capacity Constraints

• The capacity of an airport is measured by its– infrastructure – runways,

terminals, aprons;

• Environmental issues can restrict current operations or future growth and prevent full use of infrastructure.

• Most European airports have environmental constraints.

Environment constrains airports when

Climate Change

30

Aviation Emissions Forecast To Grow

31

Technology Improving

• Same fuel consumption per passenger kilometre as a moped

Industry Perspective

32

Technology Improving But not Fast Enough

• Annual fuel consumption of 250,000 cars.

• Fuel = CO2

NGO Perspective

33

Radical New Designs NeededBut these are Decades Away

34

So Aviation Has Changed the World in Which We Live – for Good and Bad

And This is The Problem…….

Activity Tonnes (CO2)% ……………………………………………………………………………….

• Private car 2.5 12• Heating / cooking / electricity 6.6 32• Public transport 1.3 6• Recreation 1.2 6• Food drink catering 2.1 10• Household appliances 2.2 10• Clothing and foot ware 0.3 2• Health Hygiene and Education 1.0 5• Other 1.5 7 …………………………………………………………………………….. Total 19 tonnes

Australia 20 tonnes

Should we Stop Flying and go Back to Blackpool for our Holidays ?