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Understanding the Impact of Regulatory Changes

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Scope (1/2)

• Impact of the amendments to the guidelines on evacuation and abandonment on the industry

• Regulations concerning evacuation of passenger ships

• Recent amendments to SOLAS regulation• The High Speed Craft Code • SOLAS regulation II-2/28 1.3

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Scope (2/2)

• IMO Guidelines for evacuation analyses of Ro-Ro and other passenger vessels

• Methodology for evacuation analyses at an early stage of design

• Performance standards for evacuation time and procedure

• Comparison simplified and advanced evacuation analysis

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Titanic and SOLAS

www.imo.org

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Table of Contents

Preliminaries

Part IThe guidelines for evacuation analysis

Part IIComparison between simplified and advanced analysis

Part IIISafe Area, Safe Return to Port

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Preliminaries

www.traffgo-ht.com Slides for download

Printed Information available here

About myself and TraffGo

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Part I

Guidelines for Evacuation Analysis

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SOLAS, HSC, and MSC/Circ.

• SOLAS II-2/28.1 evacuation analysis

• High Speed Craft Code 2000 sec. 4.8.2• MSC/Circ. 1033 for Ro-Ro and Pax and

MSC/Circ. 1166 for HSC

• Two methods: simplified (flow calculations) and advanced (computer simulations)

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IMO (1/3)

• SOLAS• STCW• Load lines• COLREGS• SUA

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IMO (2/3)

www.imo.org

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• Bulk Liquids and Gases (BLG) • Carriage of Dangerous Goods, Solid Cargoes and

Containers(DSC)• Fire Protection (FP)• Radio-communications and Search and Rescue

(COMSAR)• Safety of Navigation (NAV)• Ship Design and Equipment (DE)• Stability and Load Lines and Fishing Vessels Safety

(SLF)• Standards of Training and Watchkeeping (STW)• Flag State Implementation (FSI)

IMO (3/3)

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Overall Evacuation Time

Several components

Detection – Decision – Alarm – Reaction – Assembly – Embarkation – Launching

T = A + twalk + 2/3 (E+L) +

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T_evac simplifiedMSC/Circ. 1033, Simplified

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T_evac advancedMSC/Circ. 1033

MSC/Circ. 1033, Advanced

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Computation of T

Advanced method (simulation):

T = A + twalk + 2/3 (E+L) + =10 min (night) and =3:20 min (day)

Simplified method (spreadsheet):

T = A + 2.3 twalk + 2/3 (E+L)

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Guidelines – Further Questions

• How to learn it?

• How long does an analysis take?

• When to use which method?

• How do I know I’m right?

• Is the last question important?

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What’s done for Buildings?

• There’s also a simplified method(which was the model for the first draft MSC/Circ. 909)

• Less complex environment

• Otherwise many similarities– Effort– When to use which method– …

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Most relevant regulations

SOLAS Chapter II-2Fire Protection, Detection, ExtinctionFSS Code

SOLAS Chapter IIILife Saving Appliances and ArrangementsLSA Code

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Part II

Comparison of Simplified and

Advanced Method

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When to use which method

• Simplified Method – Calculation– For small ships– If you won’t do it again

• Advanced Method – Simulation – Complex scenarios– If you’re doing it repeatedly

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How to learn it?

• Simplified Method – Calculation– Detailed knowledge of the method’s rationale– Patience and strictness

• Advanced Method – Simulation – How to handle the simulation program– What model is the simulation based on

(if you want)

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Comparison of the Efforts

• Simplified Method – Calculation– Can be done with paper and pencil– Same effort for each new scenario / each

repetition

• Advanced Method – Simulation – You need a computer simulation– Repetition is cheap

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Example of Application

• Example of application: RoPax ferry

• Application of the simplified method

• Workflow for the advanced method

• Comparison of the results

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Trial – Simulation - Reality

Optimal Conditions(evacuation trial)

Increased Stress

Emergency Evacuation

Reality

Simulation

Simplified Analysis

Stress, Danger, Injuries

Assumptions?Evacuation Trial

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Ro-Pax Night Case

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Simplified MethodOther Decks

M

Gang 1 Gang 2 Gang 3

Exit

Gang 1 Gang 2 Gang 3

Gang 1 Gang 2 Gang 3

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Simplified Method

• Abstract geometry into pipe system

• Create spreadsheet calculation

=> t =...

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Steps

Pruning

Coloring

Modeling

Scenarios

Simulation

Evaluation

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Work Flow

Re-Formatted Drawing

OriginalCAD

DrawingSimulation Evaluation

=> t95% =...

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Time required

Grid-basedFloor-plan

EvaluationSimulationPreprocessed

CADCAD-

drawing

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Comparison of Times

Advanced method (simulation):

T = TMovement + 2/3 (E+L)

TMovement = max (Ai + twalk, i)+

Simplified method (spreadsheet):

T = A + 2.3 twalk + 2/3 (E+L)

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Comparison of ResultsShip Simplified

A+T

Advanced

TMovement

Pax 1 1486 s 1943 s

RoPax 1 1515 s 1560 s

RoPax 2 1062 s 1510 s

Pax 2 932 s 1909 s

Differences due to:• simplified method neglects sequence of events• 600 seconds safety margin for advanced method

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Current (FP 51 / MSC 83)

• Safety Margin

• Response Time

• Counter Flow Factor

• Overall Evacuation Time

Goal: Tadvanced Tsimplified

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Aligning Response Timese.g. Night Case:

Simplified method is favoured by 3 minutes.

simplified:

advanced:

t /min10

tresponse twalk

7 13

+3 min

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Response Time

e.g. Night Case:

Current reaction span is too big.

response time variance = 1,5 min

response time variance = 3 min

(advanced: 6 min)

response time variance = 0 min

(=simplified)

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Refining Definitions

• Significant Congestion

• Reduced Escape Route Availability

• Simplify Tables (e.g. Demographic Parameters)

• Counterflow

• Passenger & Crew Distribution

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Additional Test Case

• Simple Geometry

• Show how simulation parameters influence result (sensitivity analysis)

• Make results publicly available

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Scaling the Number of PersonsDay Case:

• Distribution according to FSS code

there would be more persons in the analysis than the ship is certified to carry

• Problem is solved by scaling the numbers

• This is not in the spirit of the FSS code

Example…

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Refining the Guidelines

capacity100%

FSS code75%

day case75%, scaled

MVZ 2 2500 1875 1364

MVZ 5 3000 2250 1636

Sum 5500 4125 3000

Capacity of the vessel:3000

The scaled numbers are smaller than the numbers derived from the FSS code.But what happens during lunch time?

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Part III

Large Passenger Ships

Safe AreaSafe Return to Port

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Developments

What will the future look like?

• Larger Ships

• How to get back passengers back to shore

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Five Pillars

• Prevention

• Improved Survivability

• Regulatory Flexibility

• Operations in areas remote from SAR facilities

• Health Safety and Medical Care

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Passenger Ships (1/4)

• alternative designs and arrangements;• safe areas and the essential systems to be

maintained while a ship proceeds to port after a casualty, which will require redundancy of propulsion and other essential systems;

• on-board safety centres, from where safety systems can be controlled, operated and monitored;

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Passenger Ships (2/4)

• fixed fire detection and alarm systems, including requirements for fire detectors and manually operated call points to be capable of being remotely and individually identified;

• fire prevention, including amendments aimed at enhancing the fire safety of atriums, the means of escape in case of fire and ventilation systems; and

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Passenger Ships (3/4)

• time for orderly evacuation and abandonment, including requirements for the essential systems that must remain operational in case any one main vertical zone is unserviceable due to fire three hours

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Passenger Ships (4/4)

• MSC 82• December 2006• Will enter into force on 1 July 2010

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Larger Ships

Genesis: 5400 passengers360 metres (1,181 feet) in length and 47 metres across

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Impact on the industry

• “The ship is its own best lifeboat.”

• Safe Area Concept

• Safe Return to Port

• Crew Training

• Medical and Health Care

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R & D

• Projects like “Fire Exit” determination of response time

• Crew training

• Simulation

• Directional Sound

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Identification of Roles

What would you do if you were

• A wheelchair user

• A child

• A parent

• A crew-member

• The master of the ship

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Thanks for your attention

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