Roadmap to a 100% RE Future

Feed in Tariffs: A Time for Real Action on

Renewable Energy

June 12, 2010 San Francisco, California

Designing the Perfect FIT

• Defining the objective?

– Increasing the overall RE content

– Creating jobs and new Industries

– Improving the environment

– Mitigating climate change

– Increasing energy security

– Reducing energy costs

Designing the Perfect FIT

Review existing frameworks that support

the objectives – separate the doers from

the green washers!

– If the intent is not real the results will not be

significant (UK (initially), US, non FIT countries).

– Effectively Supporting the growth of a new

Sector is a key indicator

– Investment community must become a central player and partner in any scheme.

RPS systemsRPS a target or quota, can be legislated or determined in policy

regulations. May specify regulation to achieve the target/quota

• In many cases based on a system of tradable renewable credits

and bidding processes (RFPs)

• Value of the credits is determined by a wide range of design

parameters

Feed in Tariff Benefits

FEED-IN

•Rapid deployment of resources

•Rapid development of local manufacturing

•Increase in local acceptance and participation

•Encourages geographic distribution

•Transparent and lower administrative costs

•More jobs, more investment, more competition in

manufacturing, equipment and suppliers

•Projected and real costs are minimal

Benefits of RPS or Quota Systems

RPS (REC) Quota Systems

Predictable, rather than anarchic, market growth

Minimizes costs to taxpayers and/or ratepayers through

increased competition among developers

No picking technological winners

Market-based system of tradable credits

Projected costs minimal in reality – project costs are higher

RPS in Trouble (hopefully???)

• Focus on lower price

– Geographic concentration and utility influence

– High contract failure rates as there is investor uncertainty

Targets near-market technologies and leaves technology

markets to foreign manufacturers

Deployment rates under current regimes are insufficient to

meet stated objectives and expansion falling short of

targets in most cases as in CA.

Mono-price RPS market means windfalls for existing

generators and good sites with power companies in control

Favors oligopolies of large developers that can handle risks

of investment in centralized generation; drives out small

investors and companies• No picking winners means no portfolio diversity or

encouragement of longer term resources – not “dynamically

efficient”

• Administratively cumbersome and costly

Wind energy in Germany

In 2009 Germany installed nearly

2,000 MW of new wind generating

capacity--roughly equivalent to

1,000 wind turbines.

FIT Success Stories

FIT Success Stories Italy installs more capacity in two months 250 MWs than CA in a year

• Italy is three-fourths the size of California with similarly sized

economies. Italy has a population of 60 million, to California's 40

million. The population of the US is five times that of Italy.

FIT Success Stories

• Germany installed more solar PV in the first

month of 2010, about 240 MW, than the

state of California installed in all of 2009, 212

MW.

• Italy installed 720 MW of solar PV in 2009,

nearly all of that on rooftops. In contrast, the

US installed 435 MW during the same period

US RPS Laws

Newly Installed Wind Capacity in Europe

Designing the Perfect FIT

State initiatives and

programs play a

key role for the

development of

new technologies.

An Epic Battle

Incentives vs Subsidies

Designing the Perfect FIT

• Design the overall objective(s)

• Create a level playing field (keep utilities out)

• Design a system that is predictable, long term, transparent and easy to administer

• Ensure interconnection and payments

• Do not pick technological winners

• Built in flexibility to accommodate changes

• Encourage technological breakthroughs (R&D)

• No artificial limits

Future Actions

• Provide opportunity for technological and

economic development in all sectors

• Ensure Investor clarity and long term

confidence

• Built in flexibility to anticipate problems

• Anticipate new challenges and

opportunities

Future Actions

• Forge new alliances and partnerships

– Energy storage

– Transportation

– Micro-grids and smart grids

– Conservation

– Buildings as energy generators

In the meantime, fossil fuel dependence is causing

multiple convergent, existential crises.

If you don’t change directions,

you may end up where you are headed.

- Lao Tzu

Climate Crisis Water Crisis Food Crisis

Safety/Security Crisis Biodiversity Crisis Poverty Crisis Energy War Crisis

Pollution Crisis

Thank you

www.renewables100.org

Solutions for a 100% RE future