Http:// PO Box 2563, Silver Spring, Md 20915 PFL 1 Maryland And Local Crime 14 March 1999 Philip F....

PFL 1

http://www2.ari.net/mcsm/

PO Box 2563, Silver Spring, Md 20915

Maryland And Local Crime14 March 1999

Philip F. Lee

Montgomery Citizens For A Safer Maryland

Based on Maryland State Police

Uniform Crime Reporting Program Data

From the Maryland Citizens Defense League Web Site

at

http://www.mcdl.org/stats.htm

Copyright © Philip F. Lee 1999 -- Montgomery Citizens For A Safer Maryland

PFL 2



Violent Crime In MarylandAnd Selected Jurisdictions

• This Material Represents an Interim Report Based on Data Obtained from the Maryland State Police.The State Police Population Estimates for Baltimore City Differ Significantly (Approximately 6%) from that of the US Census Bureau. See the two Web Sites:www.census.gov/population/estimates/metro-city/scts96/sc96t_MD.txt

• www.census.gov/population/estimates/county/co-97-1/97C1_24.txt

This Analysis Uses the US Census Bureau Estimates.

• This Report is Intended to Raise Questions and Not Give Answers.A Complete Analysis Would Require Effort to Examine Law Enforcement Effectiveness in Prince George’s and Montgomery Counties and in Baltimore City.Resource Allocation to Law Enforcement Should Also Be Studied.

• The Analysis was Made Possible Because of the Work Performed by the Maryland Citizens Defense League in Collecting Data from the Maryland State Police.

PFL 3



Maryland Crime Since 1975per 100000

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

1975 1985 1995

Calendar Year

No

rmal

ized

Cri

me

Per

cen

t R

e A

vera

ge

NMR

NRR

NRobR

NAA

NB&E

NL&T

NMV

NTC

NVT

NPT

Ave. Agg. AssaultRate = 443.3

Ave. Violent TotalRate = 845.7

Ave. Murder Rate = 10.1

Ave. Prop. Total Rate = 5044.6

Maryland Statewide Crime

• Figure Shows Normalized Murder Rates, Aggravated Assaults, Violent Total and Property Crimes for 23 years.

NMR = (MR - AveMR)/AveMR

as a Percentage of AveMR where

MR = Murder Rate for a Year

(Rate per 100000)

AveMR = Average over 1975 - 1997

PFL 4



Maryland Crime Observations

• The Graphs Show Normalized Crime DataNormalization Means Yearly Data is Displayed as Percent Relative to the Average of the Rates Over the Period Shown.The Average Values, Taken Over the 23 Year Period Shown, Appear on the Plot as Text Inserted Near Their Rate Data.The Normalization Permits Common Trends to be Observed for Crime Data that Have Different Scales, Provides a Uniform Basis of Comparison, and Permits Common Trends to Be Seen Easily.

• It Scales Yearly Deviations from the 23 Year Average By a Weight Indicating the Importance Society Places on the Type of Crime. (e.g. Murders Are More Significant Than Property Crime So the Weight 1/AveMR is larger than 1/AvePT)

• Violent Crime Total Rate has Increased Since 1988 and, in the Early 1990’s, was 10% to 20% Above Its Average.

• Property Crime Appears to be Stable to Slightly Higher than Average Over the Past 10 Years

PFL 5



Montgomery Crime

• Montgomery County Murder Rate Appears Stable With the Large Fluctuations Resulting from Statistics with Small Number of Cases (Approx. 21 per Year on Average).

Montgomery County Crime Since 1975per 100000

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

1975 1985 1995

Calendar Year

No

rmal

ized

Cri

me

Per

cen

tag

e re

Ave

rag

e

NMR

NRR

NRobR

NAA

NB&E

NL&T

NMV

NTC

NVT

NPT





PFL 6



• Although the Murder Rate Appears to be Stable, in the Early 1990’s the Montgomery County Violent Total Crime Index and Aggravated Assault Index Were 10+% Above Their Averages.

• The Fluctuations in the Murder Rate is to be Expected with the Small Numbers Involved -- No Statistical Significance Can Attach to the Year to Year Changes.

• Montgomery County Violent Crime Rate Is Well Below that of Maryland State as a Whole.Montgomery County Murder Rate and Aggravated Assault Rates Average Approximately 40% to 50% of the National Rates and 30% of the Maryland Rates.

Montgomery County Does Far Better than Nearby PG County and Baltimore City.

• Why is Montgomery County so Relatively Safe?

Montgomery Crime Observations

PFL 7



Prince George’s Crime

• Prince George’s County Violent Total Crime Rate Shows a Sharp Increase from 1984 in the early 1990’s, But Property Crime is Stable.

PG County Crime Since 1975per 100000

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

1975 1985 1995

Calendar Year

No

rma

lize

d C

rim

eP

erc

en

tag

e r

e A

ve

rag

e

NMR

NRR

NRobR

NAA

NB&E

NL&T

NMV

NTC

NVT

NPT





PFL 8



• PG County Property Crime Rate Has Been Stable Since 1975, But is 50% Higher Than Nearby Montgomery County.

• PG Has a Murder Rate Averaging 400% and an Aggravated Assault Rate Averaging 334% of Nearby Montgomery County.Murder, Aggravated Assault, and Violent Total Crime Rates Have Increased During 1985-1996.

Only Time Will Tell Whether There is Significance to the Violent Total Crime Rate Drop Shown in 1997.

• Even a Decline to the Average Rate will Leave PG County with a Murder Rate FOUR Times That of Montgomery County.

• Why is PG County So Unsafe?

PG Crime Observations

PFL 9



Baltimore City

• Baltimore City Violent Total Crime and Property Crime Each Show a Sharp Increase Since 1988.

Baltimore City Crime Since 1975per 100000 (Census Bureau Population Estimates)

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

1975 1985 1995

Calendar Year

No

rma

lize

d C

rim

eP

erc

en

tag

e r

e A

ve

rag

e

NMR

NRR

NRobR

NAA

NB&E

NL&T

NMV

NTC

NVT

NPT

Ave. Agg. AssaultRate = 925.5Ave. Violent TotalRate = 2267.4



PFL 10



Baltimore City Crime Observations

• Property Crime Rates and Violent Crime Rates Show Similar Increases Since 1988.The Murder Rate Increase is Greater Than the Others (from 40 % Below the Average to 40% Above the Average -- to 46 per 100000).

Violent Crime Total Rates are 20 to 40% Higher Than Average Since 1992 and 30 to 50% Higher Than the Rate in 1988.

• Murder and Aggravated Assault Rates Show Typical Year to Year Fluctuations for 1997 While Property and Violent Total Crime Rates Appear to be Trending Downward Since 1996.

• Crime Rates Have Been Well Above Average for the Last 8 Years.Murder Rate is 15 Times Montgomery County.

Similar Trend is Found in PG County, But NOT Montgomery County.

• Why is Baltimore City So Unsafe?

PFL 11



Baltimore City vs. Maryland

• The Figure Shows Baltimore City Has Increasing “Share” of Maryland Murder, Aggravated Assault, and Total Violent Crimes.

Baltimore City To Maryland State Crime Rate Ratios

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1975 1985 1995

BaltMR/MDMR

BaltAAR/MDAAR

BaltVTR/MDVTR

PFL 12



Baltimore City vs. Maryland(Continued)

• Since Baltimore City Now Has 1/7 th (Approximately) the Population of Maryland, the Ratios Could not Exceed 7 Even if All the Crime Happened in Baltimore City and None Elsewhere.

The Ratio of Murder Rates Is Nearly 5 Indicating that Most of Maryland Murders Happen In Baltimore City.The Increase in Maryland Crime Rates Results from Baltimore City.

• Trends in Baltimore City Are Masked by Decrease in PopulationBaltimore City Averages 56% of Maryland’s Murders Over 23 Years, But Population Share Has Declined from 21% to 13%.Looking Only at Crime Totals Hides How Bad Conditions Have Become.

• Actual Crime Growth is Shown By Rate Comparison of “Baltimore City vs Maryland” Chart.

The Trend Lines Drawn on the Graph Are Parallel and Indicate a General Behavior Which Should Be Addressed by Law Enforcement.

• Are Maryland State and Baltimore City Leaders Applying Resources Where Crime Is Happening? Shouldn’t They Be?

PFL 13



Baltimore City vs. Maryland(Concluded)

• Maryland Crime Rates are being Driven by Baltimore City• The Local Nature of Baltimore City Crime Problems Insure State

Wide Solutions Will Not Be as Productive as Local Solutions.Adding Police Officers State Wide in Maryland Would Waste Resources -- They Should be Added to Baltimore City.

The Problems of Baltimore City Violent Crime are Not “Gun Control” -- They have the Same Controls as “Safe” Montgomery County.

• Baltimore City Violent Crime Will Not Be Solved Until the Source of the Local Problems Is Identified.Inadequate or Misallocated Crime Fighting Resources?

Political Leaders Indifferent to Law Enforcement Needs of Economically Disadvantaged Population?

Corrupt Local Government Officials (Revolving Door Judges)?

• PG County Has Similar Crime Problems Although Less Severe Than Baltimore City.

PFL 14



Are Maryland Politicians Guilty of Criminal Neglect for Treatment of Crime

in Baltimore City and PG County?• Baltimore City, Montgomery County, and PG County Each has

Approximately 1/7 th the Population of Maryland (700,000 vice 5,000,000).

• PG County and Baltimore City Have Averaged Between 3.4 and 8.3 Times As Much Violent Crime As Montgomery County Since 1975.

• Baltimore City Is Trending to Even Higher Factors of Violent Crime When Compared to the Whole of Maryland.

• Public Safety in Maryland is Almost Entirely a Problem Particular to Baltimore City and PG County.With a Combined Population of About 28% of Maryland They Have Nearly 80% of Murders and 58% of the Violent Crimes.

• Attacking Violent Crime in Maryland Cannot Succeed Without Increasing Law Enforcement Resources/Effectiveness in Baltimore City and PG County.

Http:// PO Box 2563, Silver Spring, Md 20915 PFL 1 Maryland And Local Crime 14 March 1999 Philip F....

Documents

Transcript of Http:// PO Box 2563, Silver Spring, Md 20915 PFL 1 Maryland And Local Crime 14 March 1999 Philip F....