HTAU security incident & casualties report Nov2015 finalb
-
Upload
randy-salm -
Category
Documents
-
view
73 -
download
0
Transcript of HTAU security incident & casualties report Nov2015 finalb
A Study of Attacks by Armed Groups in Syria
and Syrian Civilians Casualties in 2015
NGO Forum - Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit
Antakya, Turkey,
November 2015
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 2
For more information on this report contact:
NGO Forum HTAU Coordinator
Email: [email protected]
Table of Contents Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 2
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 3
Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 4
Security Incidents or Attacks by Armed Groups in Syria............................................................... 5
Table 1: Security incidents by armed group by month: Jan-Oct 2015 ....................................... 6
Chart 1: Security incidents by armed group: Jan-Oct 2015 ........................................................ 6
Chart 2: Security incidents by month: Jan-Oct 2015 .................................................................. 7
Chart 3: Security incidents by armed group: Jan-Oct 2015 ........................................................ 7
Chart 4: Security incidents by governorate: Jan-Oct. 2015 ........................................................ 8
Chart 5: Security incidents by month: Jan-Oct. 2015 ................................................................. 9
Chart 6: Security incidents by month by most active governorate: Jan-Oct. 2015..................... 9
Civilians Casualties ....................................................................................................................... 10
Table 2: Civilian death toll by armed group: Jan. – Oct. 2015 ................................................. 10
Chart 7: Civilian deaths by armed group: Jan. – Oct. 2015 ...................................................... 11
Chart 8: Civilian deaths by armed group by month: Jan. – Oct. 2015 ...................................... 11
Chart 9: Civilian deaths by month: Jan. – Oct. 2015 ............................................................... 12
Women and children killed ........................................................................................................... 13
Chart 10: Women and children killed by armed group: Jan– Oct. 2015 .................................. 13
Chart 11: Women and children killed by month: Jan. – Oct. 2015 .......................................... 14
Death by Torture ........................................................................................................................... 14
Chart 12: Syrians tortured to death by armed group: Jan. – Oct. 2015 .................................... 14
Summary: ...................................................................................................................................... 15
Appendix A: Raw Data on Security Incidents and Civilians Killed ............................................. 17
Table 3: Number of Security Incidents by Governorate, Jan. to Oct. 2015 .............................. 17
Table 4: Civilians, Women & Children Killed & Syrians Killed Torture, Dec.2014-Oct.2015
................................................................................................................................................... 18
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 3
Executive Summary The Syrian armed conflict continues to have a devastating impact in civilians in Syria after
almost five years of intense fighting. However, the violence has not affected all parts of Syria
equally – some areas have had more incessant, high-pitched fighting than others, with a
concomitant impact on civilians trying to survive in those areas. Furthermore, narratives by the
armed groups about their targets, combined with massive efforts to limit access to certain regions
by some access groups, create a confusing picture of who is being attacked and who is being
killed. Of special concern is the killing of civilians. Reliable data on who is responsible for
attacks is hard to find and often criticized as not being methodological sound.
Ensuring the protection of civilians requires understanding which armed groups are causing the
most harm to civilians and which civilians are most at risk. Such information can support
prevention and advocacy efforts, to try to change the actions by armed groups to reduce the
harmful impact on civilians, among other actions.
In response to the lack of information on which armed groups are causing the most harm to
civilians, this study seeks to answer two key questions using reliable evidence:
Which groups of people are more likely to be at risk of death and injury from direct
violence by armed groups in the Syrian conflict?
Which armed groups are causing the most harm to civilians?
For the purposes of this study we define harm to civilians1 as the risk of death or injury from
direct violence by armed groups. This study uses secondary data from a reliable security source
and the Syrian Network on Human Rights. The data is analyzed to identify trends over time, by
governorate and by armed group. Findings from the two data sets parallel each other closely,
increasing the reliability of findings.
A summary of findings shows that:
It is clear that the main armed group responsible for initiating security incidents and
causing civilian casualties is the Government of Syria, with 72% of all security incidents,
77% of civilians killed and 81% of women and children killed.
The many opposition armed groups are responsible for the next largest number of
security incidents (14%), but only 7% of civilian casualties.
ISIS initiated relatively fewer security incidents (7%), but was responsible for 10% of all
civilian deaths.
Coalition forces accounted for 3% of security incidents and 1% of civilian casualties.
1 There may be many other sources or types of harm to civilians in the Syrian conflict, such as destruction of
infrastructure, besiegement, or limitations on movement. One of the most significant and visible is the indirect
sources of harm that exist in besieged areas, which leads to the lack of food, water, and health care to civilians, often
over long periods of time. This can also lead to death, disease and other physical forms of harm. Unfortunately, in
the Syrian conflict, there is no reliable data on the impact of indirect forms of harm to civilians, and which groups
are committing those forms of harm the most. Future studies such examine the varying degrees of harm to civilians:
direct harm from attacks, indirect from lack of access to survival needs (food, water, healthcare), or destruction of
water, sewage, electricity, health or other infrastructure, or imposition of strict social controls, such as movement or
employment by certain groups of people, etc.
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 4
Regarding torture, the GOS is responsible for the vast majority (97.0%) of the deaths by
torture during this period, with an average of 79 people killed per month.
The peak time for security incidents was July, August, September and October 2015.
The peak months for civilian casualties was April, May, June and October 2015, while
the peak month for women and children killed was August.
Geographically, the highest number of attacks occurred in Rural Damascus governorate
(19%), followed by Aleppo (17%), Dara (10%), and Idleb (10%). Very few security
incidents occurred in Tartous, As Sweida, Damascus, Ar Raqqa and Der E Zor
governorates, reflecting GOS targeting priorities and areas of support for the GOS.
GOS has not targeted ISIS very much over the past year (and does not generally fight
Kurdish forces), instead prioritizing its fight against OAGs.
There are clear differences between the number of security incidents by specific armed
groups and the impact on civilians. Some armed groups cause much more harm to
civilians (killed), than other armed groups.
Most of the security incidents caused by GOS are in specific governorates, such as Rural
Damascus, Idleb and Aleppo, where opposition armed groups operate.
Civilian populations most at risk are those living in areas controlled by opposition groups
and targeted by GOS.
These findings show both the military capabilities of the various groups and their ability
to initiate armed attacks, as well as their respect for the protection of civilian life and
international humanitarian law.
All of these findings may support arguments for responsibility of specific armed groups,
like the GOS, GOR and ISIS, to violations of international human rights and
humanitarian law, and provide insight for identifying and protecting civilian groups that
are at risk for attacks by armed groups.
Methodology This study uses secondary data from a reliable security source and the Syrian Network on
Human Rights. The data is analyzed to identify trends over time, by governorate and by armed
group. Findings from the two data sets parallel each other closely, increasing the reliability of
findings. The data on security incidents comes from the reliable security source and consists of
46,601 records of actions that occurred in Syria from January 1 to October 31, 2015. Each
security incident is defined as any act of violence, whether verbal, physical, military or criminal,
per hour. For example, if five air attacks occur on a village over 5 hours, then there are 5
separate security incidents. However, it does not count individual bombs: during that one hour
period multiple bombs could be dropped. A security incident usually is an attack by an armed
group, usually against another armed group or at a specific location. Security incidents include
any form of violence, such as small arms fire, sniping, mortars, artillery, missiles, and air attacks,
as well as armed group actions which impact civilians, such as conscription drives or search and
arrest operations. Many security incidents involve multiple acts, such as several barrel bombs or
artillery or mortar shells, or an offensive by an armed group in specific location. Each security
incident record includes data on date, time, place, incident narrative, and initiating actor. Data is
collected directly from sources in Syria.
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 5
The data on civilian casualties is from the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), which
publishes monthly reports on deaths in Syria.2 SNHR is a non-partisan human rights
organization based in London that documents human rights violations in Syria. SNHR has a
network of activists who collect and verify data throughout Syria. Reports of persons killed in
Syria are confirmed through local sources, including Syrian hospitals, and checked for
duplication. Each record include name, place of birth, place of death, cause of death, whether
the person was a civilian or fighter, and armed group that caused the death.3 SNHR monthly
reports included data on total people killed, fighters killed, civilians killed, women killed,
children killed, and people killed by torture.
In its analysis, the HTAU found several problems with the SNHR data on total people killed,
fighters killed and civilians killed – ideally the number of fighters and civilians killed should
equal the total number of people killed, but often they don’t match in the SNHR reports. For that
reason, in this report, the HTAU only analyzes data on civilians killed, women killed, children
killed, and people killed by torture. Also, it is unclear how many men are killed, and which are
civilians versus fighters. The overall numbers of fighters killed is low, but SNHR acknowledges
the difficulty of reporting on fighters killed. While there are reliability problems with some of
the SNHR data, it is the best there is on casualties in Syria. The NGO Forum and HTAU would
like to thank the security organization and SNHR for use of this data.
Security Incidents or Attacks by Armed Groups in Syria Analysis of security incidents – basically attacks by armed groups – in Syria helps to identify
which armed groups are committing the majority of the attacks, where the attacks are taking
place, and whether changes in the attacks occur over time. The data on security incidents comes
from the reliable security source and consists of 46,601 records of actions that occurred in Syria
from January 1 to October 31, 2015. Each security incident is an attack by an armed group
against using any form of violence, but typically air attacks, artillery, mortars, missiles, IEDs, or
small arms fire. Many security incidents involve multiple acts, such as several barrel bombs or
an offensive by an armed group in specific location. Each security incident record includes data
on date, time, place, incident narrative, and initiating actor.
One of the key questions for this study is which armed group is committing most of the security
incidents or attacks. The data below addresses that question. In this table, several armed groups
have been grouped together due to their coordination on the battle field: Hezbollah and National
Defense Forces4 were combined under the title of GOS allies; GOS, GOR, and GOS allies are
combined under GOS + allies. All OAGs, including Ahrar al Sham, Hazm Movement, Free
Syria Army, Jayesh al Fateh, Jabhat al Nusra, and others, are combined under opposition armed
groups (OAGs); and all Kurdish groups are combined under YPG, Kurdish People’s Protection
Units.
In this analysis we can see the following patterns for armed group attacks in Syria. The total
number of security incidents or attacks was 46,601 from January 1 to October 31, 2015. It
should be noted that the Government of Russia (GOR) started its attacks in Syria on Sept. 30.
2 Source: http://sn4hr.org/blog/category/report/monthly-reports/victims-death-toll/ 3 The SNHR methodology can be found at http://sn4hr.org/public_html/wp-
content/pdf/english/SNHR%20Methodology.pdf 4 There were only 18 incidents attributed to these two groups over 10 months.
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 6
Attacks by GOR and GOS allies, including Hezbollah, NDF and Iranian militias, increased
significantly in October 2015.
The GOS with its allies initiated 33,796 (72.5%) out of the total of 46,601 events
All the OAGs combined initiated 6.505 attacks, for 14.0% of all attacks.
ISIS started 3,271 attacks, or 7.0%
Coalition forces initiated 1,270 attacks, or 2.7%,
All other armed groups combined started 1,759 attacks, for 3.8% of the total. This
includes local ethnic militias, YPG, unknown groups, other groups, and criminal groups.
Table 1: Security incidents by armed group by month: Jan-Oct 2015 Armed group Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Total %
GOS 2098 2815 3060 3272 2741 3275 4021 4003 3440 4038 33083 71.0%
GOR\GOS 15 582 695 1.5%
GOS allies 3 1 2 5 7 18 0.0%
GOS + allies 2101 2815 3061 3274 2746 3282 4021 4003 3455 4620 33796 72.5%
OAGs
335
351
404
629
624
656
766
932
793
938
6505
14.0%
ISIS 151 138 249 339 359 340 367 518 387 389 3271 7.0%
YPG Kurdish 137 197 107 113 167 205 141 139 86 58 1362 2.9%
Coalition forces 158 138 85 88 111 116 200 155 123 87 1270 2.7%
Unknown groups 2 12 9 2 6 13 41 43 29 61 222 0.5%
Other groups 39 5 9 11 5 3 2 4 6 6 90 0.2%
Criminal groups 2 11 1 6 4 8 7 13 54 0.1%
Local ethnic militias 2 5 5 17 2 31 0.1%
Total = 2923 3656 3926 4467 4021 4621 5547 5807 4903 6174 46601
Chart 1: Security incidents by armed group: Jan-Oct 2015
This data on security incidents also shows trends over time and by armed group. The group that
initiated the highest number of attacks or security incidents during this period is the GOS, with
71% of all attacks. Overall, the months with the highest number of security incidents were July,
33083
695
65053271
1362 1270
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
GOS GOR OAGs ISIS YPG Coalition forces
# se
curi
ty in
cid
ents
Armed group
Security incidents by armed group, Jan. - Oct. 2015
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 7
August and October 2015, principally caused by the increase in attacks by GOS forces, with a
small increase by OAGs in that period. In the general other groups have not increased their
attacks much over the past 10 months. The line chart of incidents by armed groups clearly shows
the role of GOS forces in effecting the intensity of fighting in Syria. Many observers note that
the winter months have fewer attacks due the inability for GOS air forces to operate in poor
weather.
Chart 2: Security incidents by month: Jan-Oct 2015
Chart 3: Security incidents by armed group: Jan-Oct 2015
As seen in the chart below, clear patterns exist for attacks by governorate over time.
The highest number of attacks, 8,863, occurred in Rural Damascus governorate, for
19.2% of the total attacks.
29233656 3926
44674021
4621
5547 58074903
6174
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct
# se
curi
ty in
cid
ents
Month
Security incidents by month,Jan. - Oct. 2015
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct
# se
curi
ty in
cid
ents
Syria security incidents by armed groupJan - Oct 2015
GOS + allies OAGs ISIS YPG Coalition forces
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 8
Aleppo governorate had 7,961 (17.3%) attacks.
Dar’a governorate had 4,386 (9.5%) attacks.
Idleb governorate had 4,099 (8.9%) attacks.
Fewer attacks occurred in other governorates. Analyzing across variables, we can see that the
majority of security incidents are conducted by GOS forces in governorates with active
opposition armed groups. Governorates with low security incident rates include those areas with
primarily GOS supporters, such as Tartous, with its large Alawite population that is supportive of
the GOS; As-Sweida with the large Druze population that has been relatively neutral in the
armed conflict to date; and Damascus, with various ethnic groups and socio-economic classes,
that support the GOS.
Strikingly, very few GOS attacks occurred in Ar-Raqqa (614 or 1.3%) or Deir Ez Zor (2,130 or
4.6%) against ISIS targets. It should be noted that the vast majority of GOS targets are OAGs in
Rural Damascus, Aleppo, Idleb, Hama and Lattakia governorates. There are few changes in the
frequency of security incidents started by OAGs, with a slow increase from 335 incidents in
January to a peak of 938 in October. Finally, Kurdish areas, like Al Hasakeh Governorate, have
had a relatively low level of security incidents over the past ten months; those attacks are mainly
initiated by ISIS or YPG.
Chart 4: Security incidents by governorate: Jan-Oct. 2015
Looking at the data on security incidents by governorate by month for the seven most active
Syrian governorates, we can see trends for attacks over time. Increased attacks occurred in Rural
Damascus, Aleppo, Dara, Hama, Lattakia and Homs in recent months. In October, the only
governorate to have fewer attacaks was Idleb. There was relatively little change in the frequency
of security incidents in other governorates, such as Tartous, Ar Raqqa, As-Sweida, Damascus
and Deir Ez Zor. Changes in the frequency of attacks by governorate most closely parallel
changing military priorities of the armed groups, especially the GOS and its allies.
8863
7961
4386 40993615 3634 3499
2689 2398 21301403
720 61434
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
# o
f se
curi
ty in
cid
ents
Syria Security Incidents (attacks) by Governorate
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 9
Chart 5: Security incidents by month: Jan-Oct. 2015
Chart 6: Security incidents by month by most active governorate: Jan-Oct. 2015
In summary, we can see that the armed group that has initiated the vast majority of security
incidents is the GOS. Furthermore, the GOS has initiated the majority of these incidents in Rural
Damascus, Aleppo, Idleb and Dara governorates. OAGs have initiated some security incidents
as well, such as those that led to the capture of areas in southern Idleb in July and August 2015.
The peak period of security incidents or attacks in 2015 so far has been July, August, September
2923
36563926
44674021
4621
55475807
4903
6174
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct
# se
curi
ty in
cid
ents
Syria Security Incidents (attacks) by month
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct
# se
curi
ty in
cid
ents
Security incidents by governorate, most active governorates, Jan - Oct 2015
RURAL DAMASCUS ALEPPO DAR'A IDLEB HAMA LATTAKIA HOMS
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 10
and October. In October 2015, a spike in attacks occurred, with offensives by GOS and its allies
in Rural Damascus, Aleppo, Dara, Hama, Lattakia and Homs areas, and corresponding
retaliatory attacks by OAGs in those same areas, while ISIS has launched attacks in Aleppo and
Der Ez Zor governorates, taking advantage of the preoccupation of the GOS and OAGs in
fighting each other. Civilians are safer from direct violence from the armed conflict in Kurdish,
ISIS and GOS areas, than in OAG-controlled areas
Civilians Casualties Building on the security incident analysis, we can see trends in the impact of the Syrian armed
conflict on civilian populations using human rights data. For example the Syrian Network on
Human Rights (SNHR) publishes a monthly report on the number of people killed in Syria, with
a breakdown by total people killed, fighters killed, civilians killed, women killed, children killed,
and people killed using torture, by armed group.5 While there are some problems with the data
reliability (see Methodology), it shows critical trends that are informative for humanitarian
programming and advocacy. We summarize this data in this section.
One issue that must be considered when looking at any human rights data from Syria is the
problem of access to information in some parts of Syria: various sources have noted the extreme
difficulties in getting reliable information about human rights violations in GOS and ISIS areas.
For example, it is well known that there is limited access for conflict and human rights reporting
in GOS and ISIS areas. Therefore, it is likely that casualties in GOS and ISIS areas are actually
higher than reported here. There may also be bias towards some of the opposition groups, such
as OAGs and JAN, by SNHR staff, but even if there is some bias, the overall numbers show a
clear pattern that the main actor responsible for civilian deaths is the GOS.
Table 2: Civilian death toll by armed group: Jan. – Oct. 2015
Armed Group Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept Oct. total percent
GOS 883 1044 1029 1519 1381 1072 966 1213 795 1069 10971 77.3%
ISIS 59 34 241 68 197 451 86 117 116 53 1422 10.0%
OAGs 116 91 84 82 102 112 71 104 131 45 938 6.6%
Unknown group 82 80 37 42 21 24 71 25 86 50 518 3.6%
Coalition forces 4 6 3 0 68 21 23 14 4 1 144 1.0%
JAN 5 5 16 10 4 39 6 6 4 1 96 0.7%
YPG Kurdish 13 16 1 3 14 20 13 14 7 10 111 0.8%
totals = 1162 1276 1411 1724 1787 1739 1236 1493 1143 1229 14200 100%
Analyzing this data from SNHR, we can identify trends in civilian deaths by armed group and by
month.
5 Source for data: http://sn4hr.org/blog/category/report/monthly-reports/victims-death-toll/. There is some
imprecision in the definitions in the SNHR data for the various types of people killed: all people, fighters, civilians,
women and children. For example, it appears that SNHR assumes that all women and children are civilians, while
some could be fighters.
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 11
Most notably, the highest number of civilian deaths were caused by GOS actions: of the
14,200 total deaths, 10,971 (77.3%) were GOS initiated. The number of Syrian civilians
killed by the GOS is three times higher than all other groups combined (10,971 to 3,229).
ISIS was responsible for 1,422 (10%) of all civilian deaths during that period,
OAGs were responsible for 938 (6.6%) of all civilian deaths.
Coalition forces, YPG and JAN caused very few civilian deaths: 144 (1%); 111 (0.8%);
and 96 (0.7%) respectively.
Looking at trends over time, the highest civilian death rates have been for April, May and June
2015, with an average of 1,750 deaths for each of those months, much higher than average of
1,420 per month for the ten month period. See Appendix E for the raw data for this analysis.
Chart 7: Civilian deaths by armed group: Jan. – Oct. 2015
Chart 8: Civilian deaths by armed group by month: Jan. – Oct. 2015
10971
1422 938 518 144 96 1110
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
GOS ISIS OAG Unknowngroup
Coalitionforces
JAN YPG Kurdish
Civ
ilian
dea
ths
Civilian deaths by armed groupJan. - Oct. 2015
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct.
Civ
ilian
dea
ths
Civilian deaths by armed groupJan. - Oct. 2015
GOS ISIS OAGs Unknown groups Coalition forces JAN YPG Kurdish
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 12
The data on civilian deaths by armed group by month is informative as well. Overall, the peak
months for civilian deaths were April (n=1,724), May (n=1,787) and June (n=1,739). Civilian
deaths caused by GOS increased in April, May and August, while ISIS had an increase in June.
However, it is unclear why increased civilian casualties took place those months: whether a more
intentional campaign to target civilians or collateral damage from other targeting. It should be
noted that the months with the highest numbers of security incidents by the GOS were June, July
and August – so there is some discrepancy between the number of GOS-initiated security
incidents and months with the most GOS-related civilian casualties. ISIS had an increase to 451
civilians killed in June, above the average of 144 per month for that group. It should be noted
that ISIS may be killing civilians separately from security incidents: civilian deaths by ISIS are
more likely through executions and other forms of social control, than security incidents related
to the armed conflict. All other armed groups tracked by the SNHR data show low and stable
rates of civilians being killed.
Chart 9: Civilian deaths by month: Jan. – Oct. 2015
The trend over time shows higher rates of civilian deaths in Syria during April to June, mainly
caused by higher rates of GOS and, to a lesser extent, ISIS killings during those months.
In summary, the high numbers of civilians killed by the GOS are significant and alarming. Most
other armed groups have relatively low and stable numbers of civilians killed over these ten
months.6 Overall, this data provides evidence that civilians are not being systematically
protected from armed attacks by armed groups, that large numbers of civilians are direct victims
of such armed attacks, and that one armed group (the GOS) causes many more civilian casualties
than other armed groups. Explaining the large number of civilian deaths by GOS attacks over
time as just being accidental, incidental or unintentional does not satisfactorily explain why so
6 While we strongly prefer that no civilians die in the Syrian armed conflict, we recognize that civilian deaths do
occur in wartime. So, small numbers can be accepted as part of war. However, when large numbers are
continuously killed by one armed group, it is necessary to identify those deaths as human rights violations and
advocate for change in the armed group’s behavior.
11621276
1411
17241787 1739
1236
1493
11431229
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct
Civ
ilian
dea
ths
Civilian deaths by month, Jan. - Oct. 2015
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 13
many civilians being killed each month. While this analysis highlights the responsibility of GOS
actions, other armed groups are also responsible for civilian deaths.
Women and children killed The trends pertaining to women and children killed by armed groups is informative as well, and
parallel the data on total civilian deaths, in terms of which armed groups are causing the most
death and increases in deaths during certain periods. The peak period for deaths for Syrian
women and children was April to August 2015. Unfortunately, there is not reliable data on the
number of men killed, whether the men killed are fighters or civilians, the armed groups causing
those deaths, or the way they are killed.
The chart below shows that the GOS is main actor responsible for these deaths, causing 3,951
(80.7%) of the 4,896 deaths of women and children during this 10 month period. OAGs were
responsible for 389 of these deaths (7.9%) and ISIS 270 deaths (5.5%), with fewer deaths for
women and children attributed to other groups.
Chart 10: Women and children killed by armed group: Jan– Oct. 2015
The data also shows a trend towards more women and children being killed during the months of
April to August, with the peak in August 2015. Most of the variation in August is due to
changes in GOS targeting and killing of women and children, with 591 (86.9%) of the 680
women and children killed in August killed by GOS actions. In general, the rates of women and
children killed parallel the trends on all civilians killed: most are killed by GOS actions and are
killed during the summer months. It is clear that some armed groups are not systematically
protecting women and children from their armed attacks.
3951
389 270 136 89 37 240
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
GOS OAG ISIS Unknowngroup
Coalitionforces
YPG Kurdish JAN
Wo
men
an
d c
hild
ren
kill
ed
Women and children killed by armed groupJan. - Oct. 2015
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 14
Chart 11: Women and children killed by month: Jan. – Oct. 2015
Death by Torture Finally, the data on Syrians tortured to death by armed group also shows that the main group
responsible is the GOS. Of the 817 Syrians tortured to death during this ten month period, 790
(96.7%) were tortured to death by GOS, with an average of 79 people killed by torture by the
GOS per month. The peak months for people killed by the GOS by torture were March, April
and October, with 134, 104 and 99 people killed respectively. Again, the source for this data on
civilians, women, and children killed, and Syrian tortured to death is the Syrian Network on
Human Rights. It is likely that the number of people tortured to death by ISIS may be higher,
given anecdotal reporting, but reliable data is not available due to lack of access to ISIS areas.
Chart 12: Syrians tortured to death by armed group: Jan. – Oct. 2015
329 338376
519554 539
573
680
497 491
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct
Wo
men
an
d c
hild
ren
kill
ed
Women and children killed by month, all armed groupsJan. - Oct. 2015
790 8 9 4 60
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
GOS JAN ISIS YPG OAGs
nu
mb
er t
ort
ure
d t
o d
eath
Armed group
Syrians tortured to death by armed group Jan. - Oct. 2015
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 15
Summary: The findings of this study show clear trends and patterns for security incidents or attacks by
armed groups and corresponding civilian casualties in Syria during the period of January to
October 2015. It is clear from the data presented in this study that the armed group responsible
for initiating the greatest number of security incidents and – as a result – for causing the greatest
number of civilian casualties is the Government of Syria, with 72.5% of all security incidents,
77.3% of civilians killed, and 80.7% of women and children killed.
The total attacks attributed collectively to the many opposition armed groups make them
responsible for the next largest number of security incidents (14%), but only 6.6% of civilian
casualties. ISIS initiated relatively few security incidents (7%), but was responsible for 10% of
all civilian deaths.
Coalition forces accounted for 2.7% of security incidents or 1% of civilian casualties. Regarding
torture, the GOS is responsible for the vast majority (97.0%) of the deaths by torture during this
period, with an average of 79 people killed per month.
The peak time for security incidents has been July, August, September and October of 2015.
The peak months for civilian casualties was April, May, June and October 2015, while the peak
month for women and children killed was August.
Geographically, the highest number of attacks occurred in Rural Damascus governorate (19.2%),
followed by Aleppo (17.3%), Dara (9.5%), and Idleb (8.9%). Very few security incidents
occurred in Tartous, As Sweida, Damascus, Ar Raqqa and Der E Zor governorates, reflecting
GOS targeting priorities and its areas of support. GOS has targeted ISIS very little over the past
year (and does not generally fight Kurdish forces), instead prioritizing its fight against OAGs.
An analysis of both security incidents and civilians killed provides more insight into the pattern
of attacks and civilian casualties. If we divide the number of civilians killed by the number of
security incidents we get a ratio of civilian deaths to attacks:
For the GOS, there is one civilian killed for every 3.02 security incidents, on average
(12,020 civilians killed, 33,080 security incidents).
For ISIS, the ratio of civilians killed is higher, at 2.30, but that may be due to civilians
being killed by ISIS in actions other than security incidents (i.e., by directly killing
civilians who break ISIS rules).
For OAGs, including JAN, there is a ratio of 1 civilian killed for each 6.93 attacks.
Coalition forces have a ratio of 8.82.
YPG Kurdish forces have a ratio of 12.27.
Looking at the data this way, we find that ISIS has the highest ratio of civilians killed per
security incident, followed closely by GOS, then OAGs, coalition forces, and Kurdish YPG. In
effect, the lower the ratio, the more harm done to civilians by armed groups in their daily
military actions (specifically civilian deaths per security incidents initiated by armed group).
In summary, the data from the security organization and SNHR support a number of findings.
1. There are clear differences between the number of security incidents by specific armed
groups and the impact on civilians. Some armed groups cause much more harm to
civilians (killed), than other armed groups.
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 16
2. The GOS has both the most security incidents and responsibility for deaths of civilians.
3. From the security incident reports, we can see that most of the security incidents caused
by GOS are in specific governorates, such as Rural Damascus, Idleb and Aleppo, where
opposition armed groups operate – not ISIS areas. When we combine this finding with
civilian death data, we can determine that the civilian populations most at risk are those
living in areas controlled by opposition groups and targeted by GOS.
4. While this analysis didn’t specifically look at what GOS-initiated security incidents cause
the most harm (deaths and injuries) to civilians, it appears from the security data that
GOS air attacks are the most frequent GOS tactic that causes civilian harm.
5. These findings show both the military capabilities of the various groups and their ability
to initiate armed attacks, as well as their relative respect for the protection of civilian life
and international humanitarian law.
These findings may support arguments for responsibility of specific armed groups, like the GOS,
for violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, and provide insight for
identifying and protecting civilian groups that are at risk for attacks by armed groups.
NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 17
Appendix A: Raw Data on Security Incidents and Civilians Killed
Table 3: Number of Security Incidents by Governorate, Jan. to Oct. 2015
Governorate Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Total %
Rural Damascus 521 727 621 624 615 790 1232 1206 1210 1317 8863 19.2%
Aleppo 606 707 681 932 782 817 918 975 690 853 7961 17.3%
Dar'a 458 540 658 552 315 530 538 325 181 289 4386 9.5%
Idleb 179 207 393 555 543 434 459 659 402 268 4099 8.9%
Lattakia 184 236 322 355 291 348 359 420 396 723 3634 7.9%
Hama 208 269 357 408 307 317 334 555 340 520 3615 7.9%
Homs 191 285 210 230 266 306 447 411 436 717 3499 7.6%
Quneitra 127 177 195 179 125 187 311 368 446 574 2689 5.8%
Al-Hasakeh 155 225 251 303 335 228 375 208 134 184 2398 5.2%
Deir-Ez-Zor 191 179 178 193 245 217 215 247 244 221 2130 4.6%
Damascus 67 69 40 110 119 113 155 206 256 268 1403 3.0%
As-Sweida 6 3 10 6 26 113 125 168 107 156 720 1.6%
Ar-Raqqa 30 32 10 20 52 221 79 56 51 63 614 1.3%
Tartous 3 10 21 34 0.1%
Grand Total 2923 3656 3926 4467 4021 4621 5547 5807 4903 6174 46045
Table 4: Civilians, Women & Children Killed & Syrians Killed Torture, Dec.2014-Oct.2015 Armed group Dec. 2014 January February March
civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured
GOS 1049 105 203 97 883 54 207 64 1044 123 139 74 1029 136 147 134
PYD Kurdish 7 1 2 1 13 0 1 1 16 0 8 1 1 0 0 0
ISIL 72 4 4 0 59 2 2 3 34 0 1 1 241 22 33 1
JAN 17 2 2 0 5 2 0 0 5 0 0 2 16 3 1 1
OAG 41 3 7 0 116 23 21 0 91 18 23 1 84 6 15 0
Coalition forces 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 3 0 0 3 1 2 0
Unknown group 44 1 11 0 82 8 9 0 80 9 14 0 37 3 7 0
Armed group April May June
civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured
GOS 1519 192 269 104 1381 186 236 82 1072 124 218 56
PYD Kurdish 3 0 0 0 14 4 4 0 20 2 4 0
ISIL 68 2 2 1 197 8 9 0 451 85 28 1
JAN 10 1 2 3 4 0 1 1 39 na 3 0
OAG 82 14 21 0 102 15 31 1 112 28 25 0
Coalition forces 0 0 0 0 68 19 32 0 21 3 11 0
Unknown group 42 6 10 0 21 4 5 0 24 1 7 0
Armed group July August Sept October
civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured
GOS 966 209 286 56 1213 289 302 77 795 189 204 44 1069 197 244 99
PYD Kurdish 86 17 14 0 117 8 15 1 116 10 9 0 53 0 3 1
ISIL 71 9 13 0 104 18 26 1 131 14 45 1 45 11 13 3
JAN 71 3 8 0 25 4 3 0 86 11 7 0 50 9 8 0
OAG 23 1 7 0 14 1 6 0 4 2 1 0 1 0 0 0
Coalition forces 6 1 4 0 6 2 0 1 4 1 2 0 1 1 0 0
Unknown group 13 0 1 0 14 3 3 0 7 0 2 1 10 2 3 0
Source: http://sn4hr.org/blog/category/report/monthly-reports/victims-death-toll/