HSBC Asia Pacific (Ex Japan) Dividend Yield Fund€¦ · Offshore funds provide geographic and...
Transcript of HSBC Asia Pacific (Ex Japan) Dividend Yield Fund€¦ · Offshore funds provide geographic and...
HSBC Asia Pacific (Ex Japan) Dividend Yield Fund (An open ended Fund of Funds Scheme)
New Fund Offer | 03 February to 17 February 2014
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India: Outlook is improving
India might be in a cyclical slowdown but structurally it is still one of the fastest growing economies
Currency looks to be stable
─ Current Account Deficit (difference between imports and exports of a country) appears to be in control
─ Increase in Foreign exchange reserves
Corporate performance data is expected to improve on back of rising exports
The valuation differential between cyclical (eg. Financials, consumer discretionary sectors , etc.) and
defensives (FMCG, Pharma, etc.) are high
─ Valuation differential may narrow
─ Volatility in the equity markets provide opportunities
Reasonable valuations - ~14.85x one year forward earnings (as on 30 November 2013)*
Elections are just around the corner
Monetary framework may be reformed by the RBI
─ RBI Governor, Dr. Rajan has more focus on wage-price spiral in inflation
─ Inflation may have peaked already
* Source: Bloomberg
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However, a long way to go…..
Challenges for Indian Economy
Sluggish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate
Sticky inflation, weak Index of Industrial Production (IIP) numbers
The cost of capital (long term interest rates) continue to remain high
– Weakening confidence for the investment cycle to resume
FII flows may reverse with the announcement of US Federal Reserve on Quantitative
Easing (QE) tapering
Delicate political situation
– Uncertainty around Indian General Elections
Overall market outlook is improving but uncertainty still remains
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Offshore Fund of Funds may provide an opportunity
Offshore funds provide geographic and sector diversification
─ Provides opportunities to invest in various themes
─ Helps in diversifying a predominantly domestic portfolio
Investors investing in offshore funds would get access to the global brands, which benefit
from global business and consumption
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Why Dividend Yield Fund for Indian investors
Dividend Yield funds are a value proposition in volatile markets
– Dividend yield refers to the cash flow received from every rupee invested in shares of a company
– Generally, high dividend yielding companies, do not modify their dividends to reflect trading conditions
– Safeguard against extreme volatility as such companies are considered by many value investors
Dividend yield funds typically invest in blue chip companies which:
– Have a history of paying appealing dividends
– Consistent performers (in terms of earnings) over the long-term
Dividend yield funds typically carry lower risk as compared to growth oriented equity funds
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We are returning to a stock-picker’s market
The market has moved away from “risk on/risk off”*
Greater return dispersion drives opportunities for active managers
Source: Nomura December 2013
Sector USD performance as at 30
November 2013
Information Technology 13.07%
Consumer Discretionary 12.70%
Health Care 8.83%
Utilities 5.39%
Industrials 3.09%
Financials 3.06%
Consumer Staples 2.32%
Telecommunication Services 0.80%
Materials -5.69%
Energy -9.49%
MSCI Asia (ex Japan) Year to Date performance by sector MSCI Asia (ex Japan) average pair-wise sector correlations
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management December 2013
Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
*Risk-on risk-off refers to changes in investment activity in response to global economic patterns. During periods when risk is perceived as low, risk-on risk-
off theory states that investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments and vice-versa.
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Valuations are attractive – especially given profitability
Asia ex Japan (AxJ) equities almost a standard
deviation cheap
Valuations have collapsed, but profitability has not
Source: Morgan Stanley December 2013
1.50x
0.0x
0.5x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
3.0x
3.5x
Se
p-9
5S
ep
-96
Se
p-9
7S
ep
-98
Se
p-9
9S
ep
-00
Se
p-0
1S
ep
-02
Se
p-0
3S
ep
-04
Se
p-0
5S
ep
-06
Se
p-0
7S
ep
-08
Se
p-0
9S
ep
-10
Se
p-1
1S
ep
-12
Se
p-1
3
MSCI AxJ Trailing PB
Avera
+1
-1 S.D.
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
1.00x
1.50x
2.00x
2.50x
3.00x
3.50x
Jan-00Jan-02Jan-04Jan-06Jan-08Jan-10Jan-12
MSCI AxJ Trailing PB & 12M Forward ROE
Trailin…
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2014 earnings expectations are attractive
13.1% Earnings Per Share (EPS) growth expected in 2014, with earnings momentum stable
Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Consensus Economics, HSBC;
table shows real GDP growth
Sales growth
(%)
EBITDA growth
(%)
EPS growth
(%)
GDP growth (%)
China 7.5 9.6 9.3 7.5
Hong Kong 9.2 11.4 9.3 3.6
India 10.6 16.3 17.9 5.6
Indonesia 11.3 11.9 14.4 5.6
Korea 6.9 14.7 21.1 3.5
Malay sia 7.0 15.2 7.9 5.1
Philippines 10.1 11.1 5.6 6.3
Singapore 8.5 8.6 8.9 3.7
Taiw an 6.1 11.6 11.0 3.4
Thailand 8.3 12.4 14.0 4.4
Asia ex-Japan 7.5 10.9 13.1 4.9
MSCI AxJ earnings momentum Earnings estimates for 2014
Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC; earnings momentum is change
in 12-month forward EPS forecast
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
6 mth 3 mth
Any forecast, projection or target contained in this presentation is for information purposes only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC accepts no liability for any failure to meet such
forecasts, projections or targets. For illustrative purpose only.
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Catch-up potential: Emerging vis-à-vis Developed markets?
Developed markets (DM) have outperformed emerging markets (EM) (refer chart below)
Investors are underweight emerging markets
Time for rotation?
Global EM (GEM) allocation in global funds relative to MSCI
World index
DM have outperformed EM
Source: Citi December 2013 Note: All MSCI Indices rebased to 100 as of 1 January 2012
Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC, November 2013
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13
USA EUROPE ASIA
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Asian equities - Not yet rewarded for recovery
Asia has achieved the best earnings recovery post the global financial crisis, but this is not yet
reflected in valuations
EPS level post pre-GFC peak
Pre-GFC EPS
peak
Source: MSCI, I/B/E/S, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC November 2013
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
Nov-03 May-05 Nov-06 May-08 Nov-09 May-11 Nov-12
MSCI AxJ MSCI ACWI
fwd PE
12m forward P/E valuations
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Where are the opportunities?
Defensives (sectors like FMCG, Pharma, etc.) are priced unreasonably high
Source: Morgan Stanley December 2013
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
May-01
Dec-01
Jul-02 Feb-03
Sep-03
Apr-04 Nov-04
Jun-05
Jan-06
Aug-06
Mar-07
Oct-07 May-08
Dec-08
Jul-09 Feb-10
Sep-10
Apr-11 Nov-11
Jun-12
Jan-13
Aug-13
MSCI AxJ Cyclicals MSCI AxJ Defensives MSCI AC Asia ex JP Financials
12-Month Forward PE Relative to MSCI Asia ex Japan
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Where are the opportunities?
Cyclicals (sectors like Consumer discretionary, Materials, etc.) present better opportunities
MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan country Price/Book (PBV) (2012) v Return
on Equity (ROE) (2013)
MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan sector Price/Book (PBV) (2012) v Return on
Equity (ROE) (2013)
Source: Morgan Stanley December 2013
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Health Care
Industrials
Information Technology
Materials
Telecom Utilities
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19%
2013 ROE 2
01
2 P
BV
APxJ
Australia
China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
New Zealand
Philippines
Singapore
Taiwan Thailand
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 21% 23%
2013 ROE
20
12
P
BV
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Dividend yield strategies work over the long-term because they are disciplined
Typically focusing on well-run companies at attractive valuations
Long-term outperformance
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
De
c 9
9
De
c 0
0
De
c 0
1
De
c 0
2
De
c 0
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De
c 0
4
De
c 0
5
De
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6
De
c 0
7
De
c 0
8
De
c 0
9
De
c 1
0
De
c 1
1
De
c 1
2
MSCI APxJ Quintile 1 by div yield MSCI APxJ
(Index)
MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan: Highest yielding stocks versus broad index
Source: CLSA Asia Pacific, as at November 2013. Equal-weighted US-dollar total return with quarterly rebalancing. Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of
future performance.
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4.7
3.63.3
2.7
2.11.9
4.3
2.9
2.4
3.0
1.9
0.7
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
MSCI A
ustra
lia
MSCI E
urop
e
MSCI A
PxJ
MSCI W
orld
MSCI U
SA
MSCI J
apan
Aus
tralia
US
HK
UK
Ger
man
y
Japa
n
Dividend yield remains a good source of income
Comparative yields
Yie
ld %
Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs as at January 2014
Equity dividend yield 10 Year government bond yield
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Asia is not just about growth
Dividends remain a key driver of long-term total shareholder return in Asia.
Total equity return since 1998
Source: CLSA Asia Pacific Research, November 2013. Returns are based on MSCI indices. Investment involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
AxJ delivers 2nd highest dividend return
since 1998. Australia is the highest.
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
Europe Australia USA Japan AsiaxJP
Price Return
Dividend Return
(%)
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There is structural support for the asset class
Asian dividend funds not historically popular. This is changing.
Source: Citi, as at November 2013
Demand illustrated in strong inflows… …but the market is not saturated.
Source: Macquarie, as at November 2013
AxJ dividend funds
double, but remain a
fraction of total AUM
Source: Citi as at November 2013
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Why? A recognition of improved fundamentals
Asia already had its financial crisis – in 1997
Subsequent improvement in management, governance and focus on shareholder return
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: Citi, as at September 2012
MSCI Asia (ex Japan) free cash flow/sales
…better care of the shareholder Better corporate management…
Dividends per share index rebased to 100
Source: CLSA, November 2013
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Asia ex Japan
Europe
USA
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2.8
3.3
4.7
4.3
3.7 3.7
3.03.3
3.1 3.0
2.3
1.7
1.2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
MSCI A
xJ
MSCI A
PxJ
Aus
tralia
Thaila
nd
China
Singa
pore
Hon
g Kon
g
Taiwan
Malay
sia
Indo
nesia
Philip
pine
sIn
dia
Kor
ea
A wide universe of opportunities for yield
2013 estimated dividend yield
Div
idend Y
ield
%
Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, January 2014. Any forecast, projection or target contained in this presentation is for information purposes only and is not guaranteed
in any way. HSBC accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecasts, projections or targets. For illustrative purposes only.
Australia: traditionally
a strong source of
dividend yield
China also a good
source
India/Korea: Low
payout ratios
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In developed markets, yield concentrated in financials and utilities
There are interesting opportunities for “cyclical yield” in Asia Pacific ex Japan
Source: Citi Research November 2013,
Cyclical Yields refer to high dividend yielding stocks in the cyclical sectors like Technology, Discretionary, Industrials, energy, Materials etc.
Asian yield lies in non-traditional sectors
Highest-yielding dividend stocks by sector
Sector US EU Asia Pacific ex
Japan
Consumer Discretionary 7.7 11.9 12.8
Consumer Staples 5.3 2.5 4.1
Energy 2.7 3.8 3.5
Financials 48.2 31.3 27.2
Health Care 2.4 1.9 0.6
Industrials 8.9 12.5 19.0
Information Technology 5.3 3.8 19.6
Materials 5.2 10.0 7.6
Telecommunications 1.9 8.8 2.7
Utilities 12.4 13.1 2.5
Less
concentration
in financials…
…and greater
exposure here
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Why Indian investors should consider HSBC Asia Pacific (Ex Japan) Dividend Yield Fund?
Diversification: Provides opportunity to diversify in a fast growing region (Asia Pacific -
excluding Japan) and helps to reduce the risk of over-owning a single country equity (India)
Unique: By its objective, the fund will invest into the underlying fund which invests into
profitable companies with strong track record of paying dividends, making it the first equity-
income (Dividend Yield) focus offshore fund offer in India
Preference for Dividend Yield segment: Indian investors have demonstrated a preference
for equity income strategies
– Dividend yield funds have grown faster than most other equity fund segments over the past 5 years along with
relatively better performance track record in a volatile market (Source: MFIE)
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HGIF Asia Pacific Ex Japan Equity High Dividend Fund
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management.
Objectives and performance characteristics are not guaranteed. Data as at 31 October 2013.
HGIF Asia Pacific Ex Japan Equity High Dividend Fund
Named managers Michael Dillon
Sanjiv Duggal
Benchmark MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan
Style bias Dividend Yield
Strategy AUM USD 1.7 billion
Fund AUM USD168 million
Strategy inception 5 November 2004
Fund Domicile Luxembourg
Invests in companies that meet two
criteria
– Attractive according to our core
profitability/valuation process
– Delivers a sustainable dividend yield above
the market average
Medium-to-long term horizon; looking
to exploit short-term swings in
sentiment
Alpha typically driven by stock
selection
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HGIF Asia Pacific Ex Japan Equity High Dividend – Current portfolio
Asset allocation – By sector Country exposure
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, as at 31 December 2013. The information provided is based on un-audited data and is for reference only.
Financials , 42.52%
Information Technology,
14.93%
Consumer Discretionary,
8.47%
Materials, 7.92%
Telecommunication Services,
7.51%
Industrials , 5.16%
Energy , 4.54%
Consumer Staples, 4.13%
Utilities , 2.86% Cash, 1.97%
Australia, 26.42%
China, 19.55%
Taiwan, 10.53%
Korea, 10.12%
Hong Kong, 9.68%
Singapore, 6.63%
India, 5.14%
Malaysia, 4.34%
Thailand, 3.27% Indonesia, 2.35%
Cash, 1.97%
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Investor sentiment may be susceptible to macro concerns, including the Eurozone debt
Investor should be reminded that investment in some of the developing Asian countries may
involve special considerations and risks. Below could affect adversely the economies of such
countries or the value of the investment
– Political changes
– Government regulation
– Global economic development
Emerging markets can be significantly more volatile than developed markets, so that the
value of investments may be subject to larger fluctuations
Currency movement and market condition may affect the value of investments
Key risks - HSBC Asia Pacific (Ex Japan) Dividend Yield Fund
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International Fund of Funds – Opportunity to diversify
High Dividend Yield Funds - Good investment option in volatile markets
Asia (ex Japan) – Attractive valuations given earnings expectations
Asia (ex Japan) High dividend strategy – One of the highest dividend yielding strategies in the
world
HSBC Global Asset Management – One of the largest Emerging Markets assets manager
To conclude
HSBC Asia (Ex Japan) Dividend Yield Fund provides an opportunity to diversify
one’s portfolio across high dividend yielding markets and stocks
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Key Features
Investment Objective
The primary investment objective of the Scheme is to provide long term capital appreciation by investing predominantly in units of HSBC Global Investment Funds (HGIF) Asia Pacific Ex Japan Equity High Dividend Fund (HEHDF). The Scheme may also invest a certain proportion of its corpus in money market instruments and/or units of liquid mutual fund schemes, in order to meet liquidity requirements from time to time.
Benchmark Index
MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan
Minimum Application Amount
INR 10,000
Options Growth, Dividend (Payout & Dividend Reinvestment)
Load Structure
Entry Load – Nil; Exit Load – Nil
SIP/STP/SEP SIP available during NFO
STP/SEP available during continuous offer, not available during NFO period.
Underlying Scheme
HSBC GIF Asia Pacific Ex Japan Equity High Dividend
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This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
To create wealth over long term
Investment in equity and equity related securities of Asia Pacific countries
(excluding Japan) through fund of funds route
High risk (BROWN)
* Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the
product is suitable for them.
Note: Risk may be represented as:
(BLUE) investors understand that their principal will be at low risk
(YELLOW) investors understand that their principal will be at medium risk
(BROWN) investors understand that their principal will be at high risk
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Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited (HSBC) for information purposes only and
should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer for purchase of any of the funds of HSBC Mutual Fund. All information
contained in this document (including that sourced from third parties), is obtained from sources HSBC, the third party believes to be
reliable but which it has not independently verified and HSBC, the third party makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and
accepts no responsibility or liability as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The information and opinions contained
within the document are based upon publicly available information and rates of taxation applicable at the time of publication, which are
subject to change from time to time. Expressions of opinion are those of HSBC only and are subject to change without notice. It does
not have regard to specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive
this document. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment
strategies that may have been discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that the views regarding future
prospects may or may not be realized. Neither this document nor the units of HSBC Mutual Fund have been registered in any
jurisdiction. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted or totally prohibited and accordingly, persons
who come into possession of this document are required to inform themselves about, and to observe, any such restrictions.
© Copyright. HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited 2014, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited, 16, V.N. Road, Fort, Mumbai-400001 Email: [email protected]
Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.