MZUMBE UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND MANAGEMENT

(SOPAM)

SUBJECT ; PRINCIPLES OF HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

CODE ; PUB 228

CORSE ; BHRM II

NATURE OF TASK; Group assignment

NAMES OF PARTICIPANTS

HAMISI ZAKARIA 13307/T.11

ZUHURA KIZUGUTO 15426/T.11

SARAPION HILDA K. 13103/T.11

TONNY MAFOLE 13315/T.11

SCHOLA E. NDONYO 13217/T.11

NITISHE EMMANUEL 15423/T.11

PETRO PAULO 13309/T11

INOCENT MLAGAMA

CLAUDIA SIMON 13191/T.11

Question

Forecasting the demand for human resource posses problem and challenges in Tanzania organizations Discuss .

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

DISCUSSION

Problems faces forecasting demand human resource

Possible solutions

CONCLUSION

REFERENCE

Human resource planning has been defined as the process by which management determine how

organization should move from its current manpower position to its desired manpower position.

Through its management strive strives to have the right number and the right kind of people at

the right place at the right time, doing things that impact both individual, organization and social

trend at large. E. W. Vetter (1967) As defined by Bulla and Scott (1994) it is ‘the

process for ensuring that the human resource requirements of an

organization are identified and plans are made for satisfying those

requirements’.

Human resource planning is based on the belief that people are an

organization’s most important strategic resource. It is generally concerned

with matching resources to business needs in the longer term, although it

will sometimes address shorter term requirements. It addresses human

resource needs both in quantitative and qualitative terms that is how many

people and what sort of people are needed.

As a part of corporate business planning, human resource planning said to

be done in three clear steps; Forecasting future people needs (demand

forecasting). Forecasting the future availability of people (supply

forecasting). Drawing up plans to match supply to demand. Whereby at the

last step the possible measures are taken to deal with any incidents which

may disturb the equilibrium between the needed human resource and the

work load.

But as Casson (1978) as couted by Armstrong (2006) pointed out, this

conventional wisdom represents human resource planning as an ‘all-

embracing, policy-making activity producing, on a rolling basis, precise

forecasts using technically sophisticated and highly integrated planning

systems’. He suggests that it is better regarded as, first, a regular monitoring

activity, through which human resource stocks and flows and their

relationship to business needs can be better understood, assessed and

controlled, problems highlighted and a base established from which to

respond to unforeseen events; and second, an investigatory activity by which

the human resource implications of particular problems and change

situations can be explored and the effects of alternative policies and actions

investigated.

As the need of the question our discussion will base on one of three

mentioned steps and that is demand forecasting. At a more practical level,

forecasting demand involves determining the numbers and kinds of personnel that an organization

will need at some point in the future. Most managers consider several factors when forecasting future

personnel needs. The demand for the organization’s product or service is paramount. Thus, in a

business, markets and sales figures are projected first. Then, the personnel needed to serve the

projected capacity is estimated. Other factors typically considered when forecasting the demand for

personnel include budget constraints; turnover due to resignations, terminations, transfers, and

retirement; new technology in the field; decisions to upgrade the quality of services provided; and

minority hiring goals (Noe, 2012).

Keeping in consideration all the above mentioned factors doesn’t leave forecasting human resource

demand as the party of human resource planning with no challenges and problem especial in

developing countries like Tanzania.

As a future oriented category, forecasting human resource demand in Tanzania faces a number of

challenges and problems in which the following championed others.

Uncertainties is one of the problem and far most big challenge that faces forecasting human resource

demand in Tanzania and elsewhere. As the matter of fact that human beings are blind about the

future, changes that occurs in our political, social and economical sphere, poses imbalances in our

future plans. Uncertainty about labor turn over which is the outcome of unsatisfied working

environment and competition in labor market, technological changes as the influence from globalized

world, and market fluctuation due to the week economy of Tanzania acts as a big challenge toward

proper human resource forecasting that ends up with massive redundancies and job right sizing as the

way of balancing the economy of the state.

Further more, too much rely on the past experience is another problem in forecasting human resource

demand in Tanzania as the case study. It has been a daily routine for managers and planners to rely

their future plans on the past experience. This behavior assumes that all factors which may influence

changes in their plans will remain constant during the running period so whatever is planed now will

succeed since they had previous succession through the same plan. In return, for the sensitivity field

like human resource planning it ends up with a big number of errors since human resource planning

as the multidisciplinary field of study and action depends on a huge number of factors such as

political policies, economical trend, social trend and other physical phenomena which can not remain

constant through out. So any small changes that arise in the above factors disturb the plan.

Lack of reliable and accurate data in the human resource field also poses another problem in

forecasting human resource demand. There is no full data development that concerning about

manpower structure in most of Tanzanian organization and whatever they are acquired they are not

taken as one of importance. Data concerning about number of employees that organization holds at

the current period and their skills, age, gender, change in work load time to time and daily routine are

much important in forecasting human resource demand in any organization and wherever it happens

that an organization doesn’t take these data into consideration as its day after day pilot, it will

directly pose the threats to the manpower planning including finding themselves overstaffing or

understaffing at the near coming future hence loss.

Also lack or poor top management support. So as human resource planning and its three mentioned

steps to succeed, it needs full top management support. Top management is responsible in assessing

the relevance of human resource data if they can shoulder the strategies of an organization, goals and

objectives of an organization. If the human resource plans meets the future demands of an

organization it will receive full supports from the top management but if it doesn’t, management

discourages its relevance and not supporting it. Most of human resource planning data especially that

based on the forecasting demand, faces lack of support from top management due to the fact that they

are irrelevant to the changing technology and economic trend since they rely on the past experience.

Organizations overambitious also can be considered as the problem and challenge that is possessed

by human resource planning in Tanzania. Management and its actors within an organization found

themselves making too huge work planning which needs a big number of employees during its

implementation. So failure to reach such targets leave a large number of employees who were

employed to perform a certain task with nothing to do in an organization. Example a manufacture

firm which have the mean production of 1000 tons of flower every year within ten years, may over

plan by aiming at producing 3000 tons for the coming future, this will need also an increase of

manpower so as to reach its target. So when it will happen that the firm fail to produce such amount

due to over planning then there will be a large number of employees who have nothing to do in an

organization.

Failure to integrate human resource planning with organizations core strategies and objectives also

proved to be a problem during forecasting human resource demand. Job objectives, organizations

strategies, mission and vision of an organization together with organizations work load, decide the

manpower demands in an organization. So there must be straight integration between human

resource planning and organization goals and objectives so as to decide the quality and quantity of

individuals that an organization is going to hire. This is not the case in most of Tanzanians

organization whereby human resource department works as an independent department with no

linkage with other departments such as finance, sells and planning board meetings. So due to this

situation perfection in human resource planning getting harder and harder.

Poor knowledge of managers in making organization planning also is another

problem in forecasting human resource; Human resource planning today is

more likely to concentrate on what skills will be needed in the future, and

may do no more than provide a broad indication of the numbers required in

the longer term, although in some circumstances it might involve making

short term forecasts when it is possible to predict activity levels and skills

requirements with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Such predictions will

often be based on broad scenarios rather than on specific supply and

demand forecasts.

Poor in making scenario planning. A scenario can be defined as ‘an imagined

sequence of future events’ (Oxford English Dictionary). Scenario planning is

simply a more or less formalized process for establishing a view about any

changes that can be foreseen to the scale and type of activities in the

organization and to its structure, and for identifying any external

environmental changes that are likely to affect it. The aim is to obtain a

better understanding of the possible situations that may have to be dealt

with in the future. So by having poor or not having scenario planning,

managers in human resource planning finds it hard to make future planning

of an organization and great failure in forecasting manpower demand in an

organization hence loss either through overstaffing or understaffing.

In summation, All management is about decision-making in an environment

of risk and uncertainty. Effective management aims to reduce the risk and

uncertainty as far as this is possible in an imperfect world by the acquisition

of the best available information and the use of a system. Improved HR

information systems mean there is no reason why data that drives decisions

on human resource planning should not be made now, as we argued in our

discussion. Accurate data and conceptual skill is the best solution for the

problem in forecasting human resource demand.

Reference;

Gupta, C. B,( 2009 ) 13th ed Management theory and practice, Sultan Chand

& sons, New Delhi

Milkovich B, (2004) 5th ed Human resource management, business

publication inc, New Delhi

Michael armstrong, (2006) 10th ed A hand book of human resource

management practice, Kogan page limited. London