HR  Practices  &  

 TechnologY  induced  change  

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

cochrane.org.uk

ca-global.org

Peter Cochrane

The  world  is  no  longer  simpleIt is connected complex and non-linear !

Complexity

is the no

rm

Complexity is accelerating

Globalisation i s g r owing

Cultural DifferenceSkill Shortages

a r e u n i v e r s a l

Integration and organisational reorganisation are necessities

Humans always !the most difficult

Embrace & prosper

Deny & fail

complexityWhat does it mean ?

‘Not simple or obvious’

Resists analysis Resists modelling Denies simplification Unexpected outcomes Unintended consequences No generalised classifications No generalised mathematical theory

No generalised description Mostly counter intuitive

Generally confounding Conditionally difficult No, or, weak axioms

Non commutative

non-linearWhat does it mean ?

Outcome not related to input by scale and may see a different outcome every time even when starting conditions/inputs are the same !How come??- Minuscule/imperceptible differences in start conditions- Minuscule/imperceptible differences in the system state

Small input changes can have a massive impact on the output

Natural  &  man  madeComplexity, Non-Linearity, Chaos are the natural order !

connectedWhat does it mean ??

The day of the independent variable is over The day of disconnected decisions and effect/s has gone Today unintended consequences rule…and there is no escape

The  world  is  no  longer  slowIt is fast and speeding up !

Change  is  not  a  constantIt is exponential !

A doubling every year = 1024 (1k) fold in 10 years In 20 years = 1024 x 1024 = 1M

In 30 years = 1B

My laptop is now 1M fold more powerful than the one I had 20 years ago!

ExponentialWhy it is a big deal !!

Telephone Network Growth ∝ N2

!

Internet Network Growth ∝ 2N

!

Cloud Network Growth ∝ N1/2

Increase nodes 10 fold = Energy Increase

x 100 more energy

x 1000 more energy

x 3.6 more energy

The telephone network and Internet will not scale to >7Bn people + >50 Bn things on line but clouds will!

everyone  is  connectedAnd soon so will everything!

Global traffic flows

education  through  a  strawPeople focussed into a corner leading to unemployment!

Limited to 3 - 7 simultaneous topics/tasks Mathematics fails > order 5

In evolutionary stasisPhysics

ART

LAW

BiologyTECH

Maths

Chemistry

Humanities Religion MediaIT

Professions are now multidisciplinary

Multi-talented  &  flexibleDoers and the solvers of problems!

Education  v  abilityPaper achievements will be outgunned by a proven abilty!

HUmans  are  simple  mindedThey cannot cope with or solve the complex!

Limited to 3 - 7 simultaneous topics/tasks Mathematics fails > order 5

In evolutionary stasis

Machines experience no such limitations !

Why  do  we  employ  People  ?Because they are cheaper than robots !

MATERIALSOrganic + inorganic , printed,

programmed, autonomous

No  casting,  Pressing,  machining> 300 parts are now printed

FRont  line  productionShipping designs and not parts

AI  -  HUMAN  Conflict or cooperation ?

Without Artificial Intelligence many of today’s machines, technology, production and control

processes would fail/be impossible…

…and in the future this will be even more so…and if humanity is to progress we have no choice !

IBM  WATSONGeneral knowledge

In 1997 IBM Deep Blue became the Chess Grand Master - and now my

laptop will beat any human with ease!

In 2011 IBM Watson became

the world champion

at General Knowledge

IBM  WATSONMedical Expertise

In 2012 IBM Watson moved into medical diagnosis

By 2014 Watson became superior

to any human Doctor at data analysis

and diagnosis

People  reactionI want one!!

A ver y high propor tion of the general public appear to be ready to embrace the new technologies of robotics & a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e i n their homes and places of work..and in everyday l ife

!…children and young people

are especially accepting, as are the aged and ail ing when

needy of suppor t that is lacking

AI  job  destructionSweeping away the old

Testers Tasters Analysts Advisors Educators Reporters Strategists Call centres Report writers Personal bankers Personal assistants Answering services Investment bankers

Agents Drivers

Assistant IT support

Technicians Researcher Train driver Forecasters Receptionist

Stock Trader Tech support

+++++ Warehouse People

AI  job  CREATION  &  ENHANCEMENTBringing in the better and the new

Polymath Fabricator Geneticist Genera l i s t Proteomist Multi-designer Problem solver Longevity advisor Big Data Analyst Cellular programmer Material programme Complexity analysts

Medics Scientists Engineers Modellers

Designers Detectives

Arch i tects Consu l tants

Technologists Entrepreneurs

++++ Security Experts

BIG/META  DATA  -  BIG  RETURNSThe power of the hash

Highly mathematical and specialised, but a gold mine of oppor tunities

BIG/Meta  DATA  -  ANALYSISOnly one person fi ltered out by The Hash Function

more  pilots  on  the  groundMilitar y aviation & civi l aviation transformed

Big expensive machines and pilots sidelined in policing, TV repor ting,

surveying +++

food  and  care  transformedSensor technologies available to all

future  employment/employeesNew modes and different expectations

the  rise  of  the  Connected  New modes and different expectations

Speed of

Change

Adaptability and

FlexibilityNew

Technology Entries

Competition

Growing

Global Market Threat

Ecological Humanitarian

Demands

BYOD BMOB OPEN APPS Social

Mobility BIG Data

More empowering than

anything we have

had before

THE  future  is  personalPersonal not Corporate Computing

My way works and yours is so slow I leverage my network and you don’t have one

My laptop is so much more powerful than yours I need access so I by-pass the company network

My network speed is far faster than yours

Unacceptable  Ineffective and redundant IT Dept’s

Thinking/attitudes out of step with reality, corporate and people needs !Resistive of any form of change !Against mobil ity, BYOD, Apps , SMTP +++ !Warped and paranoid view of threats and secur ity - obsessed by firewalls and malware protection, Office Upgrades , inventor y control, purchases , and network issues , but doing nothing about the insider threat, big data, business modell ing, decision suppor t

You have to

every 5 days

change yourpassword every

Can they cope with the sophistication of the new threat scenarios ?

Do they have the same ability and resources as Cisco, IBM, Google, Apple et al working together...

securityAre you protected, is your team up to par ?

- Unsure - Unaware - Uninformed - Underpowered - Blissfully ignorant

Pre - occupied by: Office upgrades LAN provision

Old services Operations

+++

securityOr are they in the l itt le league ?

new  workforceTech savvy, fully equipped, no respect for IT Depts!

The see social networking is a vital a tool......as their choice of equipment, apps, web sites and ways of working...

...they don’t eMail, they TXT and IM !

...they don’t conceal or hide they share !

new  workforceNo loyalty or allegiances , dr iven by interests !

T h e y s e e I T a s ‘personal’ and not ‘corporate’ - !

Thinking, working & acting differently...

…creating new fast , innovat ive solutions, groups, and operations...

new  workforceWorking on the fly using what they choose!

Management attitudes, working and operational practices, will have to change if companies are

to keep up and compete on the world stage ...

case  study:  XYZ  Corporation  ABC market leader

• Open entry - no airlocks • Open plan - no offices • 60% seating provision • Flexible working • Mobile working • Home working • BYOD • BMOB • Virtual PBX • VOIP PBX Client • No wired infrastructure

• Power sockets only • Cloud provision • App freedom • ISP freedom • Open access • Open Apps • Transients • Associates • Part timers • Contractors • Multi Continent • +++ !

New Building designed for 21C working

THE  BIG  HR  CHAllengeOver the next 10 years +

• Fewer Full Time and FTE • Shorter FT dwell times • Shorter project times • Changing processes • New technologies • More competition • More contractors • More transients • More machines • Faster change

Thank You

ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s