HPS Housing Policy Brief Dec 10, 2012

7/30/2019 HPS Housing Policy Brief Dec 10, 2012

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WEEKLY BRIEFINGHOUSING: POLICY & FINANCE

12/10/2012

Hamilton Place Strategies | 805 15th Street NW, Suite 700 | Washington, DC 20005

FED MBS HOLDINGS ARE REDUCING RATES BUT TRANSMISSION EFFECT VERY REAL

The biggest housing-related news came early this week when William Dudley, President of the Federal Reserve of New York, gave a speechsummarizing a paper byNew York Fed staIIWLWOHG The Rising Gap Between Primary and Secondary Mortgage Rates.'XGOH\VDLGWKH)HGVGHFLVLRQ in September to purchase an additional$40 billion a month of agency mortgage-EDFNHGVHFXULWLHV0%6LVDVLJQWKDW4XDQWLWDWLYH(DVLQJ is working; current MBS yields declined roughly 45 basis points

while the Freddie Mac 30-year rate declined 23 basis points. However, there are impediments to current policy: the yield that the Fed is receiving in the primary marketis significantly lower than actual mortgage rates available to the consumer (Exhibit 1).

Historically, the spread hovered between 30 and 50 basis points. In September, it rose above 150 basis points. There are several reasons cited for this anomaly. Outsideof the actual paper, Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journalprovides what we found to be the most concise news VXPPDU\LQKLVDUWLFOHWLWOHG Why Banks are EnjoyingRecord Mortgage Revenue.$PRQJWKHPDUHIRUFHGEX\-EDFNVNQRZQDVSXW-backs,ORZHTXLW\OHYHOVWKDWFRQVWUDLQUHILQDQFLQJ ability and higher costs associated

with increased regulation of the mortgage market. Other areas of concern are market concentration, capacity constraints, higher barriers to entry and pricing power oncertain borrowers.

SUPPLY OF MORTGAGE CREDIT IS NOT WHAT IT USED TO BE

Although there are several reasons for the transmission effect, the most logical reason behind it is the current level of mortgage origination compared with prior to thecrisis. For example, according to a report titled WKHFuture of the Housing & Mortgage Markets: Winners & LosersE\FBR Capital Markets & Co., using data fromInside Mortgage Finance, the largest mortgage originators in 2005 were Bank of America (including Countrywide), Wells Fargo (including Wachovia and Golden West),

JPMorgan (including Washington Mutual), Citi (including ABN Amro) and GMAC. They estimate that roughly $1 trillion of capacity has left the market since 2005.Bank of America exited the market and closed down Countrywide, JPMorgan closed GRZQ:DVKLQJWRQ0XWXDOVPRUWJDJHEXVLQHVV and Citi and GMAC now havesubstantially smaller roles in the market. Of the top 20 mortgage originators of 2006 based on Home Mortgage Disclosure Actdata only five of the 20 remain(Exhibit 2).

GIVEN MARKET CONDITIONS, EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW INTEREST RATES

The market forecast is for continued sub-par economic growth. The current unemployment rate sat around7.7 percentwith the economy adding 146,000 jobs inNovember. While not significant enough to alter sentiment, Hurricane Sandy may have played a role in the numbers. These diminished expectations, combined withthe end of Operation Twist and the expectation of tighter fiscal policy in the new year, will most likely lead the Fed to take further action. Fed action over the past yearhas caused the yield curve to flatten. One year ago, the 30-year rate was at 3.04 percent; it is now at 2.81 percent (Exhibit 7).

7KH)HGV0%6KROGLQJV VSLNHGLQ1RYHPEHU([KLELW and with potentially more accommodative policy, these holdings could rise. These purchases should drivedown the yield on MBS, which should result in lower mortgage rates for the consumer. While the transmission effects are somewhat muted, evidenced by the spreadbetween primary and secondary MBS (discussed above), expectations are for a prolonged low interest rate environment to support continued refinancings andoriginations.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS
http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2012/dud121203.htmlhttp://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2012/dud121203.htmlhttp://www.newyorkfed.org/research/conference/2012/mortgage/primsecsprd_frbny.pdfhttp://www.newyorkfed.org/research/conference/2012/mortgage/primsecsprd_frbny.pdfhttp://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/03/why-banks-are-enjoying-record-mortgage-revenue/http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/03/why-banks-are-enjoying-record-mortgage-revenue/http://www.fbr.com/http://www.fbr.com/http://www.fbr.com/http://www.insidemortgagefinance.com/http://www.insidemortgagefinance.com/http://www.ffiec.gov/hmda/http://www.ffiec.gov/hmda/http://www.ffiec.gov/hmda/http://www.hamiltonplacestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/December-7-Jobs-Day-Fact-Sheet.pdfhttp://www.hamiltonplacestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/December-7-Jobs-Day-Fact-Sheet.pdfhttp://www.hamiltonplacestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/December-7-Jobs-Day-Fact-Sheet.pdfhttp://www.hamiltonplacestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/December-7-Jobs-Day-Fact-Sheet.pdfhttp://www.ffiec.gov/hmda/http://www.insidemortgagefinance.com/http://www.fbr.com/http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/03/why-banks-are-enjoying-record-mortgage-revenue/http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/03/why-banks-are-enjoying-record-mortgage-revenue/http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/conference/2012/mortgage/primsecsprd_frbny.pdfhttp://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2012/dud121203.html


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12/10/2012


WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN THE WEEK AHEAD (DEC. 10-14)

x The FOMC is holding its last 2012-policy meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday; releasing market forecasts on Wednesday afternoon. A press conference forChairman Bernanke will begin shortly thereafter at 2:15 PM. For a more in-GHSWKVXPPDU\RIOLNHO\RXWFRPHSOHDVHVHH%LOO0F%ULGHVEORJCalculated Risk.

x President Obama will speak in Michigan this Monday, most likely drumming-up support in fiscal cliff negotiations. Last Monday, the PresidentreiteratedhisORQJKHOGYLHZWKDWLIWRSUDWHVGRQWULVHWKHUHLVDGDQJHUWKHPLGGOHFODVVFRXOGIDFHDFDSRQGHGXFWLRQVVSHFLILFDOO\mortgage interest.

x A number of public and private events are in Washington this week. Look to the House FinancLDO6HUYLFHV&RPPLWWHHVPHHWLQJRQWKH9RONHUUXOHWKLV7KXUVGD\ WR HDUQPHGLD DWWHQWLRQ ,Q DGGLWLRQ HYHQWV E\ ERWK &DWR DQG%URRNLQJVZLOO GLVFXVV WKH )+$V UHFHQW DFWXDULDO UHSRrt and future of housing,respectively.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/fomc-projections-preview.htmlhttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/fomc-projections-preview.htmlhttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/fomc-projections-preview.htmlhttp://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/04/president-obama-weighs-in-on-mortgage-interest-deduction/http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/04/president-obama-weighs-in-on-mortgage-interest-deduction/http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/04/president-obama-weighs-in-on-mortgage-interest-deduction/http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/04/president-obama-weighs-in-on-mortgage-interest-deduction/http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/fomc-projections-preview.html


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Jobless Rate Edges Down to Its Lowest Level in 4 YearsThe New York Times

12/7/2012By: Nelson Schwartz'HVSLWHIHDUVRID slowdown caused by gridlock in Washington, the economic recovery moved forward at a steady pace in November, pushing unemployment to itslowest level in four years. 7KHQDWLRQVHPSOR\HUV DGGHG MREVODVWPRQWKLQOLQHZLWKWKHDYHUDJHRID month in 2012. But the pace was a substantialimprovement from earlier this year, when job growth slowed sharply and many observers feared a double-GLSUHFHVVLRQ

Basel who? Mortgage servicing rights were already fallingSNL Financial12/07/2012By: David Hayes and Tahir AliMortgage servicing rights, or MSRs, are now just a shadow of their former glory. Faced with falling interest rates and consequently rising prepayment rates, as well as

sales to nonbank servicers, the value of MSRs at U.S. bank holding companies has been in decline for years, even before the joint regulatory proposal on Basel IIIimplementation was announced last summer. Aggregate mortgage servicing rights in the industry fell in the third quarter to $35.65 billion, down from $38.14 billiona quarter earlier and $44.12 billion in the year-ago quarter. Going farther back in time, the drop in MSRs is more substantial as MSRs stood at $52.36 billion in the thirdquarter of 2010 and $67.57 billion in the third quarter of 2009.

Lawmakers Press HUD Secretary on Possible FHA BailoutAmerican Banker12/06/2012By: Victoria FinkleDonovan told the Senate Banking Committee what HUD is doing to prevent such a scenario, including what further actions might be needed to bolster the mortgageinsurer's finances. But lawmakers on both sides of the political aisle expressed strong dismay with the agency's financial health, raising the prospect of whether the nextsteps may require additional legislative action.

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.3% Year-over-year in October, Largest increase since 2006Calculated Risk12/04/2012By: Bill McBrideThis CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. Case-Shiller is currently the most followed houseprice index, however CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is notseasonally adjusted (NSA).

TOP NEWS AND RESEARCH
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/08/business/economy/us-creates-146000-new-jobs-as-unemployment-rate-falls-to-7-7.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/08/business/economy/us-creates-146000-new-jobs-as-unemployment-rate-falls-to-7-7.htmlhttp://www.snl.com/Interactivex/article.aspx?ID=16566036http://www.snl.com/Interactivex/article.aspx?ID=16566036http://www.americanbanker.com/issues/177_234/lawmakers-press-hud-secretary-on-possible-fha-bailout-1054988-1.html?ET=americanbanker:e13356:2307502a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AB_Washington_Regulatory_120712http://www.americanbanker.com/issues/177_234/lawmakers-press-hud-secretary-on-possible-fha-bailout-1054988-1.html?ET=americanbanker:e13356:2307502a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AB_Washington_Regulatory_120712http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/corelogic-house-prices-up-63-year-over.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/corelogic-house-prices-up-63-year-over.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/corelogic-house-prices-up-63-year-over.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29http://www.americanbanker.com/issues/177_234/lawmakers-press-hud-secretary-on-possible-fha-bailout-1054988-1.html?ET=americanbanker:e13356:2307502a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AB_Washington_Regulatory_120712http://www.snl.com/Interactivex/article.aspx?ID=16566036http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/08/business/economy/us-creates-146000-new-jobs-as-unemployment-rate-falls-to-7-7.html


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President Obama Weighs In on Mortgage-Interest DeductionThe Wall Street Journal12/04/2012By: Nick Timiraos

President Barack Obama waded into the issue Monday of whether or not the mortgage-interest deduction should be on the table during negotiations to avoid a seriesof automatic tax increases and spending cuts that would take effect in the beginning of January.

Mortgage Availability: Excessively Tight Credit ConditionsNational Association of Realtors12/04/2012By: Scholastica (Gay) Coraraton, Research EconomistRecently released government data for 2011 from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) shows just how tight mortgage credit has been. Incomes ofprospective purchasers have increased since 2004, but the loan to income ratio has declined. The median household income for a homebuyer using conventionalfinancing rose from $79,000 in 2007 to $ 90,000 by 2011, while the national median household income has remained flat since 2007 at about $50,000

New York Trips Up Ocwen's Big PlansThe Wall Street Journal12/04/2012By: Liz RappaportNew York's top financial regulator hasn't signed off on a pair of deals that would establish the biggest processor of subprime mortgages. Benjamin M. Lawsky, New

York's superintendent of financial services, has yet to approve Ocwen Financial Corp.'s OCN -0.57% plans to buy Homeward Residential Holdings Inc. and themortgage-servicing unit of Residential Capital LLCcompanies that, like Ocwen, collect mortgage payments and rework troubled loans for U.S. homeowners.

Industry Downplays Fears of Multifamily Housing BubbleAmerican Banker12/04/2012

By: Kevin WackTo some, these factors suggest that a bubble is forming in the multifamily market and that, a few years from now, developers will be sitting on so many emptyapartments that they will be unable to pay their bank loans. But others who follow the rental housing market closely argue that worries about a multifamily bubble areoverblown. They described some reasons for concern, but they also expressed a belief that the supply of rental units is in balance with market demand, except perhapsin a few geographic areas

)HGV'XGOH\6D\V0%6%X\LQJ,V+HOSLQJ(FRQRP\The Wall Street Journal12/03/2012By: Michael S. DerbyDeclining mortgage rates show Federal Reserve monetary-policy stimulus is having an impact, a key Fed official said Monday. Since launching an open-endedmortgage bond-buying program in September, agency mortgage-ERQGVHFXULWLHVUDWHVKDYHGHFOLQHGDQGWKLVLVVROLGHYLGHQFHWKDWRXUSROLF\KDVEHHQDQGFRQWLQXHVto be, effectivethough it is certainly not all-powHUIXOLQFXUUHQWFLUFXPVWDQFHVFederal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said.
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/04/president-obama-weighs-in-on-mortgage-interest-deduction/http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/04/president-obama-weighs-in-on-mortgage-interest-deduction/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2012/12/04/mortgage-availability-excessively-tight-credit-conditions/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323401904578159610703951202.html?mod=googlenews_wsjhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323401904578159610703951202.html?mod=googlenews_wsjhttp://www.americanbanker.com/issues/177_232/industry-downplays-fears-of-multifamily-bubble-1054904-1.htmlhttp://www.americanbanker.com/issues/177_232/industry-downplays-fears-of-multifamily-bubble-1054904-1.htmlhttp://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/12/03/feds-dudley-says-mbs-buying-is-helping-economy/http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/12/03/feds-dudley-says-mbs-buying-is-helping-economy/http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/12/03/feds-dudley-says-mbs-buying-is-helping-economy/http://www.americanbanker.com/issues/177_232/industry-downplays-fears-of-multifamily-bubble-1054904-1.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323401904578159610703951202.html?mod=googlenews_wsjhttp://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2012/12/04/mortgage-availability-excessively-tight-credit-conditions/http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/04/president-obama-weighs-in-on-mortgage-interest-deduction/


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Final 3Q Tally: Originations at $486B, Wells Sees Share SlipNational Mortgage News12/03/2012By: Paul Muolo

:HOOV)DUJR&RWKHQDWLRQVFRQVWDQWYROXPHOHQGHUVDZIXQGLQJV jump by 56% compared to 3Q 2011 but also experienced a slight decline in market share:29.94% compared to 30.35% in 2Q.

Why Banks Are Enjoying Record Mortgage RevenueThe Wall Street Journal12/03/2012By: Nick Timiraos0RUWJDJHUDWHVKDYHIDOOHQWRWKHLUORZHVWUHFRUGHGOHYHOVEXWWKHVSUHDGEHWZHHQEDQNVFRVWRIIXQGLQJPRUWJDJHVDQGWKHUates being offered to borrowers hassoared in recent months.The upshot, the thinking goes, is that mortgage rates would be even lower if banks were passing along their lower funding costs toborrowers

)HGV'XGOH\6HHV2EVWDFOHLQ0RUWJDJH%RQG5DWH6SUHDGVBloomberg12/03/2012By: Caroline Salas GageFederal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said a wider gap between yields on mortgage-backed securities and home loans is reducing theSRWHQF\RI WKHFHQWUDOEDQNVPRQHWDU\VWLPXOXV:KLOHWKHUH LVVROLGHYLGHQFH WKH)HGVPRQWKO\SXUFKDVHV RIEL OOLRQ LQKRXVLQJGHEW KDYHEHHQ HIIHFWLYH LQORZHULQJ\LHOGVWKHLPSDFWRIPRQHWDU\HDVLQJRQWKHHFRQRP\WKURXJKKRXVLQJDQGPRUWJDJHILQDQFHKDVEHHQLPSHGHGWRVRPHGHJUHH'XGOH\VDLGWRGD\LQopening remarks at a workshop on mortgage rates held at the New York Fed.

0RUWJDJH%RQG6DOHV-XPSLQJ+XUW)HGV%X\LQJ(IIRUWVBloomberg12/03/2012By: Jody ShennIssuance of U.S. government-backed mortgage securities soared 45 percent last month to the highest since at least 2009 as lenders rushed to create bonds beforeguarantors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increase their fees.
http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/dailybriefing/residential-originations-jumped-in-third-quarter-1033203-1.htmlhttp://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/dailybriefing/residential-originations-jumped-in-third-quarter-1033203-1.htmlhttp://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/03/why-banks-are-enjoying-record-mortgage-revenue/http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/03/why-banks-are-enjoying-record-mortgage-revenue/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-03/fed-s-dudley-sees-impediment-in-mortgage-bond-rate-spreads.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-03/fed-s-dudley-sees-impediment-in-mortgage-bond-rate-spreads.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-03/mortgage-bond-sales-jumping-45-hurt-fed-s-buying-efforts.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-03/mortgage-bond-sales-jumping-45-hurt-fed-s-buying-efforts.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-03/mortgage-bond-sales-jumping-45-hurt-fed-s-buying-efforts.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-03/fed-s-dudley-sees-impediment-in-mortgage-bond-rate-spreads.htmlhttp://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/03/why-banks-are-enjoying-record-mortgage-revenue/http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/dailybriefing/residential-originations-jumped-in-third-quarter-1033203-1.html


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Monday, Dec. 10, 2012

Tuesday, Dec. 11, 2012

International TradeThe U.S. international trade gap in September improved, largely on petroleum. And the best news is that exports rebounded. The trade deficit narrowed to $41.5billion from $43.8 billion in August. Exports rebounded 3.1 percent, following a 1.0 percent decline in August. Imports increased 1.5 percent after slipping 0.2 percentthe month before. The shrinking in the trade gap was led by the petroleum deficit which decreased to $21.7 billion in September from $23.5 billion in August. The non-petroleum goods shortfall actually grew to $35.2 billion from $34.9 billion for the prior month. The services surplus improved to $15.9 billion from $15.1 billion in

August.

FOMC Meeting BeginsThe Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times a year in order to determine the near-term direction of monetary policy. For monetary policy, the FOMC

evaluates the relative concerns over the outlook for economic growth (too strong, too weak, about right) and pending inflation (too high, too low, about right). TheFOMC then determines whether short-term interest rates should be raised, lowered, or left unchanged to accomplish its objectives of healthy economic growth andlow inflation. The FOMC consists of the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve Board (assuming no seats are vacant) and five Federal Reserve Bank presidents. TheNew York Fed president is always on the FOMC and the other four seats for the District presidents are rotated yearly. Changes in monetary policy are now announcedimmediately after FOMC meetings.

Hearing: STREAMLINING$1'675(1*7+(1,1*+8'65(17$/+286,1*$66,67$1&(352*5$063$57,,Where: 538 Dirksen Senate Office BuildingWhen: 10:30 AM

Wednesday, Dec. 12, 2012

MBA Purchase ApplicationsThe Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is aleading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.FOMC Meeting Announcement7KH)HGHUDO2SHQ0DUNHW&RPPLWWHH)20&LVWKHSROLF\-making arm of the Federal Reserve. It determines short-term interest rates in the U.S. when it decides theovernight rate that banks pay each other for borrowing reserves when a bank has a shortfall in required reserves. This rate is the fed funds rate.

FOMC Forecasts

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://banking.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Hearings.Hearing&Hearing_ID=17b993c3-2d05-4703-8692-418cb8bf0956http://banking.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Hearings.Hearing&Hearing_ID=17b993c3-2d05-4703-8692-418cb8bf0956http://banking.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Hearings.Hearing&Hearing_ID=17b993c3-2d05-4703-8692-418cb8bf0956http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=450772&cust=wsj-us&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#tophttp://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=450772&cust=wsj-us&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#tophttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=450772&cust=wsj-us&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#tophttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://banking.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Hearings.Hearing&Hearing_ID=17b993c3-2d05-4703-8692-418cb8bf0956http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.html


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Chairman Press ConferenceThe Fed announced on March 24, 2011 that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold press briefings four times a year to explain the FOMC's latest quarterly economicprojections. Additionally, the purpose of the briefings is to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions and to allow for Q&A with the press.

According to the Fed, the "introduction of regular press briefings is intended to further enhance the clarity and timeliness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy

FRPPXQLFDWLRQ

Hearing: Challenges Facing the U.S. Capital Markets to Effectively Implement Title VII of the Dodd-Frank ActWhere: 2128 Rayburn House Office BuildingWhen: 10:00 AM

Thursday, Dec. 13, 2012

Jobless ClaimsInitial jobless claims fell 25,000 in the December 1 week to 370,000. This was the third straight major decline that together just about fully unwinds a giant 90,000spike in early November tied to Hurricane Sandy. The latest level falls in line with the trend that preceded the giant storm, a comparison that hints at no significant

change in the nation's jobs market. Continuing claims showed a similar pattern of unwinding from Sandy. Continuing claims in data for the November 24 week fell avery steep 100,000 to 3.205 million, a level that's in line with the month-ago trend.

Producer Price IndexThe Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received bydomestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. The headline PPI (for finished goods) is a measure of theaverage price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods for prices received by producers.

Retail SalesRetail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data arecollected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions ofconsumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.

Hearing: Examining the Impact of the Volcker Rule on Markets, Businesses, Investors and Job Creation, Part II

Where: 2128 Rayburn House Office BuildingWhen: 9:00 AMEvent: Cato Institute: Is the Federal Housing Administration the Next Bailout?

Where: 1000 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001When: 12:00 PM
http://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=452398&cust=wsj-us&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#tophttp://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=452398&cust=wsj-us&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#tophttp://financialservices.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=314629http://financialservices.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=314629http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=451369&cust=wsj-us&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#tophttp://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=451369&cust=wsj-us&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#tophttp://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=451381&cust=wsj-us&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#tophttp://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=451381&cust=wsj-us&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#tophttp://financialservices.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=314721http://financialservices.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=314721http://www.cato.org/event.php?eventid=9219http://www.cato.org/event.php?eventid=9219http://www.cato.org/event.php?eventid=9219http://financialservices.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=314721http://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=451381&cust=wsj-us&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#tophttp://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=451369&cust=wsj-us&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#tophttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://financialservices.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=314629http://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=452398&cust=wsj-us&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top


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Friday, Dec. 14, 2012Consumer Price IndexThe Consumer Price Index is a measure of the change in the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. That is the index

shows the change in price levels since the index base period, currently 1982-84 = 100. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation.The consumer price index is available nationally by expenditure category and by commodity and service group for all urban consumers (CPI-U) and wage earners (CPI-W). All urban consumers are a more inclusive group, representing about 87 percent of the population. The CPI-U is the more widely quoted of the two, although cost-of-living contracts for unions and Social Security benefits are usually tied to the CPI-W, because it has a longer history. Monthly variations between the two are slight.

Industrial ProductionIndustrial production declined 0.4 percent in October after having increased 0.2 percent in September. Hurricane Sandy, which held down production in theNortheast region at the end of October, is estimated by the Fed to have reduced the rate of change in total output by nearly 1 percentage point. In October, the indexfor manufacturing decreased 0.9 percent, following a 0.1 percent gain in September. Excluding storm-related effects, factory output was roughly unchanged fromSeptember. The output of utilities edged down 0.1 percent in October, and production at mines advanced 1.5 percent. Capacity utilization for total industry decreased0.4 percentage point to 77.8 percent in October.

Brookings: The Future of Homeownership in the United States Featuring Bank of America CEO Brian MoynihanWhere: 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036When: 12:00PM

ABOUT HAMILTON PLACE STRATEGIES

This report was prepared byPatrick SimsandRussell Grote. Please do not hesitate to reach out if you have any comments, suggestions or concerns.

Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy and communications consulting firm based in Washington. As a firm, our focus and expertise lie at the intersection ofgovernment, business and media. Our deep experiences on all of these dimensions allow us to serve industry leaders seeking to navigate the paths between Washingtonand the private sector.
http://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=451262&cust=wsj-us&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#tophttp://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=451262&cust=wsj-us&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#tophttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/12/14-homeownership-moynihanhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/12/14-homeownership-moynihanmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/12/14-homeownership-moynihanhttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.htmlhttp://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=451262&cust=wsj-us&year=2012&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top


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HPS Housing Policy Brief Dec 10, 2012

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Transcript of HPS Housing Policy Brief Dec 10, 2012