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CONTENTS NOVEMBER ‘14

5 From The Publisher

7 The Teaser

Topics that titillate the racing mind.

12 Back to Night School

Approaching a Day at the Races is our archive subject from the online national fan education program.

16 Winter in Nawlins

Brian W. Spencer provides insight into racing at Fair Grounds.

21 Questions for Caton

Caton Bredar has anchored down at Gulfstream for the winter.

25 Here Comes the Sun

Brian Nadeau offers what to look for (and how to bet) at Gulfstream.

30 Oaklawn Unveiling

Jerry Shottenkirk previews the upcoming season in Hot Springs.

35 Santa Anita Preview

SoCal’s post-Christmas present attracts Jeremy Plonk’s attention.

39 New Meadowlands

Inaugural Season at Success Ken Warkentin looks back at 2014 in the Big M’s new digs.

43 Who Pays Attention

to Quarter Horse Racing? You Should. Denis Blake gives you the cross-over from TBs to QHs.

47 December Calendar

Stakes, key dates, Race of Month

52 Galloping Out

Jeremy Plonk provides 14 things we learned in 2014.

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4

From the Publisher

Statistically speaking, I’ve seen a spike in many good handicappers during

the winter months of racing. We track every win and loss among our Horse Player NOW team, and I do the same for my personal play. I’m not exactly sure what it is, perhaps it’s as simple as the tracks that are running, but winter seems to be a hot time of year to play.

Our team has you dialed in for the premier race meetings of winter this month. From Gulfstream to Santa Anita to Fair Grounds and Oaklawn, we’ll preview a quartet of the biggest meets in the game. And while this doesn’t sum up all of winter’s gems – lest we forget Aqueduct and Tampa Bay Downs’ significant handle chunks – these are the meets at which we focus most of our attention and have had historically the most success.

It’s been a wonderful first season of Horse Player NOW Mag. If there are any ways we can improve the publication in 2015, please email me Jeremy@Horseplayernow.com.

- JP

Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2014

Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved

Editor, Publisher, Designer Jeremy Plonk

Contributing Writers Caton Bredar Denis Blake

Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau

Brian W. Spencer Ken Warkentin

Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)

Contributing Photographers Coady Photography / Oaklawn

Hodges Photography / Fair Grounds

Adam Coglianese / NYRA Michael Lisa / Meadowlands

Dustin Orona / Remington Park

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THE TEASER:

From new light on a.m. works to foolish fantasies to Japanese snubs, eventually it will all make sense.

Working Out Workouts

Ever wonder how a first-time starter with a single reported workout contained in a past performance line could be ready to run against (and defeat) foes that have numerous breeze times listed below their names? Teaser does all the time.

And whenever one of those first-timers with just one (or even two) listed works beats him, he just shakes his head like an overworked inner-city cop as vandals shatter windows in an abandoned building. Don‟t sweat the small stuff.

The operative word in this workout nonsense is „reported,‟ and while a runner may have had just one of

those, he probably also has had several „unreported‟ breezes.

Now, before you get all hot and bothered and jump on the Internet to wail about how crooked the races are, realize this: This has been going on forever! And you are still alive. Imagine that.

It‟s understood that „official‟ clockers don‟t time horses at training centers. Why? Because no one pays to make that happen. Workout times at these facilities are reported based on the honor system. Until now, that is.

Bruno De Julio, an independent published clocker, horse owner, bloodstock agent and syndication manager, recently was denied admittance to Palm Beach Downs, a training center in Del Ray Beach.

Teaser, definition: A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion. Also, perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe.

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One thing led to another and this whole issue of „reported‟ workouts caught a good breeze in its sails and picked up some momentum. As per a Horseraceinsider.com story, the folks at Gulfstream Park have taken the baton and run with it. The Hallandale track has hired a clocker to work Palm Beach Downs and intends to hire another to time works at Payson Park, as well. These workouts will be published in past performance data.

So, there you have it: Possible full disclosure of workout information from two popular Florida training centers. Happy? Teaser‟s not.

Used to be when one of those one-work wonders flattened Teaser‟s tickets, he had a built-in excuse: “No way I can play a horse with one workout showing! Crooks!”

Now, when one of those Palm Beach or Payson runners knocks him out of the Rainbow Six, he‟ll have no one to blame but himself…and Bruno De Julio.

Fantasy Fulfilled

Can‟t do something you want to in real life? That‟s okay; you can probably do it in a fantasy world instead. Or at least have the decency to call it a fantasy world. That‟s where Monmouth Park and New Jersey are headed in a quest to legalize sports wagering.

A federal judge recently told them they can‟t take sports bets in order to boost a struggling horse racing product and to aid failing casinos; instead

Monmouth has announced it will offer fantasy sports betting.

So far, it‟s not entirely clear what „fantasy sports betting‟ might entail exactly, but if it‟s in line with what we‟ve come to know and love as „geek gambling,‟ count me in.

Traditional „fantasy sports‟ usually involve players selecting or drafting a fictional roster of professional athletes which then competes against other fictional rosters of

So far, it’s not entirely clear what ‘fantasy

sports betting’ might entail exactly, but if it’s in line with what we’ve come to know and love

as ‘geek gambling,’ count me in.

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professional athletes on a yearly, monthly or even daily basis. Wins and losses then are established according to the amount of points scored by each roster member in real-world sporting events. Team owners pay entry or registration fees to compete and prizes to winners come in cold, hard cash.

Professional sports leagues and the NCAA are behind the federal gambling ban, but they support and sometimes even operate „fantasy sports‟ leagues.

Teaser wants to make sure he‟s got this one straight: It‟s illegal in New Jersey (and in most other states) to win or lose money based on what happens during an actual sporting event. However, it‟s also simultaneously legal to win or lose money based on what happens in an actual sporting event, as long as it involves fantasy teams composed of real players.

Say what?

Guess that‟s why there isn‟t widespread interest in fantasy

horse racing. Unlike other sports, gamblers can wager on horse racing for real!

World Super Jockeys Series…sort of

The World Super Jockeys Series, an international event launched by the Japan Racing Association in 1987, attracts top caliber jockeys from Europe, North America, Oceania and Asia for a captivating two-day, four-race series enjoyed

by fans in Japan and around the world.

The jockeys, selected for outstanding performances through the

season, ride on Japanese mounts chosen randomly by drawing. Points are awarded for each race and the jockey with the most points at the end of the second day wins. This year we welcome eight top-class jockeys from Canada, Ireland, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Australia and Hong Kong to join eight outstanding Japanese jockeys to claim this year‟s title.

So says the publicity release promoting the event.

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In the first place, Teaser hates jockey challenges. They don‟t prove a thing. While jocks are brave, incredible athletes, the sport‟s called „horse racing‟ and not „jockey racing‟ for a reason. Jocks get way too much praise when horses win and way too much blame when they lose. The little fellas are paid 10% of the purse and, according to capitalism, that‟s what the job‟s worth.

Still, this Japanese World Super Jockeys Series has Teaser bent out of shape because not one US-based jockey is involved. That‟s right, zero, zilch, nada. How is that possible? What got lost in translation?

Cash Asmussen won the inaugural event in 1987 and Jerry Bailey scored best in 1996. The top prize is $30,000 in US currency, with $20k to second and $10k to third. Sounds like a decent payday.

Perhaps no top US jock was interested in giving up stateside mounts for the weekend Nov. 29-30. After all, there are plenty ofstakes races on both coasts immediately following Thanks-giving. Maybe Series riders mainly include those who are conveniently in town for the Japan Cup?

For Teaser it‟s most palatable to imagine top US jocks declining an invitation than to think none was offered. It‟s just not right to call something the World Super Jockeys Series without including at least one Yank in the irons. - HPN

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This month’s topic of review:

DAILY APPROACH

Since 2011, Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races. Through live chats, videos and radio simulcasts, the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers. In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine, we go “Back to Night School” with a look at some of the high points of past lessons.

“Approaching a Day at the Races” has been a topic over the years in Night School and one that gets a lot of follow-up interest from both novice and more-serious players. What measures should you take in the lead up to a race and raceday? We’ll examine that and more.

All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read, listen and view. In this “Back to Night School” edition, we’ll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed “Approaching a Day at the Races.

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Let’s take a look at a few archive videos on the subject as well as a highlight from our full, 90-minute session with HRTV’s Aaron Vercruysse. Videos feature Jeremy Plonk, Tom Hammond and Bob Neumeier of NBC Sports. Click either video to view now.

Aaron Vercruysse (HRTV): Replays are a big key to success. I am also a big fan of watching trouble horses in bad races get overbet. I am old school, I love the newspaper DRF, not downloaded PPs … I’m like Linus and his blanket. I try and get my work done before I get to the races. This makes me more comfortable about the day; it is all in the attitude. Everyone that handicaps before the track has "one" horse they love. I always try to "end" a multi-race wager with my horse; it keeps you from having to play more. Racing is like fashion ... less is more. How many big bets lose and little bets win?

FULL 2011 chat transcript.

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15

As Thanksgiving approached, the

third-oldest racetrack in the

country opened its doors again

when Fair Grounds Race Course &

Slots kicked off its 143rd season of

Thoroughbred racing.

The biggest news coming into

the season was the

bombshell announcement

made by Rosie Napravnik

(pictured) that she would

not be returning to the

saddle in New Orleans, or

anywhere, for the

foreseeable future. Expecting

a child with trainer Joe Sharp and

placing family first, she opened the

door for another rider to claim top

honors this season, ending her 4-

year reign atop the standings.

Napravnik had won a third of all

graded stakes at Fair Grounds over

the last 4 years, opening up high-

end wins for the rest of the colony.

Fair Grounds always hosts a deep

jockey colony, but with the

absence of Napravnik, Shaun

Bridgmohan, and Leandro

Goncalves, there are

roughly 200 wins from

last season now up for

grabs. James Graham,

second behind

Napravnik the last three

seasons, figures to pick

up a handful of her more

lucrative mounts from Tom Amoss.

Richard Eramia rates as another

capable contender for the top spot

with his business firmly cemented

amongst the Louisiana horsemen.

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Apprentice Andre Ramgeet, barely

more than 400 rides into his

career, has been turning heads

with intelligent rides in the early

stages of the meet and could

continue to make his presence felt.

There has not been much

movement in the trainer race as

nearly all of the

big names are

back with

similarly sized

strings as years

past. Tom Amoss

and Steve

Asmussen may

once again do

battle for leading

trainer, with a roster of capable

trainers lined up to win a handful

of races as well. Louisiana-based

Eddie Johnston has a really classy

stable of nice horses who should

make plenty of noise in the

Louisiana-bred ranks.

One trainer who produced a

favorite angle of mine last season

is Wes Hawley – and it’s a timely

note given the date of publication

of this article. Last season,

Hawley’s horses looked fairly

competitive on paper in their first

starts of the meet, but it was when

his runners got around to making

their second start at the stand that

they really woke up. It felt like his

second-out runners were winning

almost by default daily, and often

at square prices. Hawley tends to

freshen his

horses for

roughly two

months prior

to the Fair

Grounds meet,

and that first

start of the

season allows

them to shake

off just enough rust to fire big

shots in December.

Many improvements have been

made throughout the facility with

extensive upgrades on the

backstretch coupled with the

replacement of nearly 1,700 feet of

drainage pipes underneath the turf

course. While those improvements

were cause for cautious optimism

for the upcoming meet, there is

still a place at Fair Grounds where

One trainer who produced a

favorite angle of mine last

season is Wes Hawley – and it’s

a timely note given the date of

publication of this article.

17

hope always springs eternal – the

road to the Louisiana Derby.

Improving 3-year olds will get a

chance to go long in allowance

company in late December to

prove their worthiness to take a

shot in the Grade III Lecomte on

January 17. The Grade II Risen

Star on February 21 provides a

final local chance to punch a ticket

into the $750,000 Grade II

Louisiana Derby to be held on the

penultimate day of the meet,

March 28. The lesson may have

been learned by the public by now,

but pay attention to whether or not

trainer Dallas Stewart sends a

Louisiana Derby also-ran to the

Kentucky Derby. Two years in a

row such a horse has crashed the

exacta behind the victorious race

favorite: Golden Soul, second to

Orb at 34-1 in 2013, and

Commanding Curve, second to

California Chrome at 37-1 this year.

While the boys will get most of the

publicity with clear Kentucky Derby

implications, perhaps the most

important race in determining

future success over the years has

been the Grade II Fair Grounds

Oaks. With six of the last 10 Fair

Grounds Oaks winners having gone

on to glory in the Kentucky Oaks,

there has not been a more

productive or important Oaks prep

race in the entire country over the

last dozen years. Producing

superstars such as Rachel

Alexandra, Untapable, Ashado and

Proud Spell just since 2004, the

Fair Grounds Oaks is the place to

start when handicapping on Derby

Road to the Derby

and Oaks

January 17

Lecomte

Silverbulletday

February 21

Risen Star

Rachel Alexandra

March 28

Louisiana Derby

Fair Grounds Oaks

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Eve at Churchill Downs.

There is an incredible amount of

history at Fair Grounds, but from a

contemporary standpoint, it still

remains one of the most intriguing

and challenging handicapping

puzzles in the country owing to a

fair-playing main track and an

almost impossibly long stretch run.

Horizontal or multi-race players can

feast on generous payoffs in the

pick four due to solid fields and a

competitive Louisiana-bred racing

program that provides some

opportunities for big bombs.

In a city celebrated for its unique

culture, irresistible eats, and

round-the-clock opportunities for

revelers, there is a reason Fair

Grounds has stood the test of time

in New Orleans – and for the 143rd

time it will again play the part of a

beautiful winter getaway for those

spending their afternoons shivering

in colder climates up North.

We'll try to send some sunshine

your way. - HPN

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AND SUBSCRIBE TO THE Q-RACING

JOURNAL TO FOLLOW AMERICA’S

FASTEST ATHLETES!

Pose your questions each week in Night School – or by emailing askcaton@horseplayernow.com!

Each issue, we’ll take your questions for Caton Bredar, Horse Player NOW analyst, Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV.

What's the difference between Gulfstream Park and

Gulfstream Park West?

Very simply, they are two different tracks being run by the same ownership/management team. Gulfstream Park is the same track as always, located in Hallandale, FL and owned and operated by The Stronach Group.

Gulfstream Park West is the track formerly known as Calder, located near Opa Locka, FL and operated since October 2014 by The Stronach Group. The Calder property has been owned by Churchill Downs Inc., which still operates the casino located adjacent to the track and grandstand.

For the most part, the horses and horsemen competing (and the caliber of competition) at GP during the summer months and GPW in October and November are

essentially the same. The names and quality will begin a gradual change upward when racing restarts at Gulfstream Park on December 6 with the arrival of many Midwest and Northern/East Coast horsemen, jockeys and horses.

When you handicap the GP races, it's going to be important to note any differences in running lines for horses based in Florida year-round as the two track surfaces are very different even though the people and horses are often the same. GPW remains a deeper track that some horses really take to and others struggle over; going back to GP can make a big difference.

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Pose your questions each week in Night School – or by emailing askcaton@horseplayernow.com!

Can anyone besides Todd Pletcher make a case for leading trainer at Gulfstream's

Championship Meet?

There's strength in numbers, and Pletcher, who has led the standings at GP for the past decade, is tough to get past. Since the winter of 2004, no trainer has won more races--or purse money--than the Toddster. That said, the changing dynamics of racing in South Florida, combined with a change in Pletcher's base of operations (for the first time he'll train and stable at Palm Beach Downs training center), leave the door open a crack for another conditioner to step to the forefront.

Away from Palm Meadows (which is owned by Gulfstream Park), Pletcher will be under zero pressure to run at Gulfstream as opposed to any other winter racing venue; at the same time, it remains to be seen how effective horses shipping in from Palm Beach Downs will be, as opposed to those shipping in from other venues. I’m not saying Pletcher won't win the title again, but with some powerful outfits gearing up

more than ever for the winter and simultaneously having horses based down in Florida year-‘round, it's possible someone other than Pletcher could assume a lead role.

What do you most look forward to, for the Gulfstream 2015 Championship Meeting?

Everything! Even if you didn't have some of the best weather in the nation and didn't have the Atlantic Ocean and the beach in the background of the shot from the quarter-pole camera, the racing would be enough to make you look forward to Gulfstream every year as much as a child looks forward to Santa Claus.

The quality of the jockey colony is superb with an unbelievable quantity of jockeys to go along with the quality, making the race-riding as competitive as any place you'll find.

Two very different turf courses every racing day make for interesting and contentious grass racing. And the Rainbow 6 with a 20-cent minimum means every day you can, on a limited budget,

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Pose your questions each week in Night School – or by emailing askcaton@horseplayernow.com!

swing for the fences and, at the same time, possibly hit for a decent score. The 3-year-old program is second to none. So chances are, if you don't see the next Kentucky Derby winner (like Animal Kingdom pictured below), you will at least see some of the major players in the Triple Crown picture (i.e. Tonalist in 2014). If standing out in the sunshine,

breathing in salty beach air as the horses run and the palm trees sway isn't enough, you can always finish the day off with a steak dinner at Christine Lee's on the third floor of the clubhouse, or a rum cocktail at the bar in the Village, just a stone's throw from the walking ring. You can celebrate or drown your losses, and you don't even have to leave the track! What's not to look forward to?

Follow me @CBredar

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By Brian Nadeau

fter the obvious lull

that is the post-

Breeders’ Cup portion of the

racing calendar, the opening of the

Gulfstream Park winter meet

December 6 offers horseplayers a

chance to dive back into the action

and wager on what, undoubtedly,

ranks as the winter’s best racing

product.

Large fields, turf racing and

expansive horizontal wagers make

Gulfstream an attractive

handicapping destination. So, let’s

take a look at the meet as a whole,

along with a few important nuggets

that I’ve picked up along the way

that might help pad your wagering

bankroll.

Speed Kills

If the old Keeneland main track

was known as a paved highway

then the Gulfstream Park main

track should now be known as the

old Keeneland. Quite simply, speed

is a must when you’re dealing with

the main track at Gulfstream. And,

yes, I know speed is always good

to have, no matter where they run

the races, but at Gulfstream it’s

almost a necessity.

Last year, 28% of the main track

races were won in wire-to-wire

fashion. Add in another 16% that

were won by pace pressers (those

within a half-length at the pace

A

25

call) and it means that 44% of the

main track races run at Gulfstream

were won by horses within a half-

length or closer to the lead. And

we’re talking about a sample of

well over 400 races, so this is a

tried and true scenario over the

course of my research, which went

from December through the last

weekend of March.

Conversely, only 15% of the dirt

races were won by closers, so if

you’re backing a horse with little

speed, you better get a fair price

before taking the plunge. The only

sample that is left is the stalkers,

which won 41% of the time, so

simple math tells us that 85% of

the main track races run at

Gulfstream Park over a four-month

span were won by horses within 4

lengths of the lead. When you’re

constructing your tickets and

you’ve got to decide between a

runner with tactical speed and one

without it, it should be a pretty

easy choice.

But you should also do your due

diligence when watching the races

and take note of a winning closer

or a horse that made a sustained

run from the back to run into the

number. While it might not prove

fruitful at Gulfstream, these are the

types of overlaid horses that pop

up at Aqueduct and Belmont in the

spring and can often fire at big

prices over race tracks that play

much, much fairer.

Todd is God

Me telling you Todd Pletcher

(pictured) is going to win a lot of

races at Gulfstream isn’t exactly

the equivalent of splitting the

atom.

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The country’s most prolific trainer

sends out an assembly line of

good-looking 3-year-olds every

winter in South Florida that go on

to make waves in their respected

sophomore divisions. In the

“damned if you do, damned if you

don’t” world of wagering, “To Todd

or not to Todd” is often a tough

question. But just how lethal is

Pletcher?

The question got me to thinking,

so I did some research, knowing

the stats would be impressive, but

they even surprised me. In the

past three years (at Gulfstream

only), Pletcher has sent out 33

first-time starters in 3-year-old

maiden special weight races (for

colts and fillies) on dirt that went

off at 2-1 or lower. He’s won with a

gaudy 55% of them, for an ROI

that sits at $2.29. If you’re an

exotics player, 74% of them ran in

the money. If you want to take it a

step further, 12 of the 33 have

been odds-on and eight of them

have won, for an ROI of $2.26.

So what does it all mean? It’s

pretty clear actually. Don’t play

against any Pletcher first-time

starter at Gulfstream that gets

bet. Of course, I know you’re

saying “Well, I’m certainly not

betting on some horse that has

never run and is 4-5!” And I

completely concur. But Gulfstream

has a large and expansive

wagering menu, filled with two pick

fours, a pick five and the Rainbow

6 (more on that later), so taking a

potential free square on a Pletcher

firster would give you a huge leg

up on your competition. And, as

hard as it is to believe, a lot of

people won’t be thinking the same

way, as they are often scared to

single in races loaded with young,

inexperienced horses, many of

which have never started before.

That universal good thing might be

4-5 on the board, but he/she could

be 5-2 in the horizontal exotics,

and that’s something you should

be taking advantage of.

What to Watch?

The 3-year-olds, of Course!

While the February 7 Grade I Donn

Handicap for older horses will

garner a lot of attention,

Gulfstream has forged its niche as

a Mecca for 3-year-olds and a

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pivotal proving

ground on the

road to the

Kentucky Derby.

The maiden and

allowance races

in December and

early January

funnel several

horses into the

lucrative graded

stakes in late

January,

February and

March, when the Grade I Florida

Derby is run on the 28th.

The Holy Bull (January 24,

pictured above in Barbaro’s

2008 win) and Fountain of Youth

(February 21) will begin to give us

an idea of just how strong the

South Florida 3-year-olds are this

year, but do your homework before

those key stakes to get an even

better idea. I’ll be paying close

attention to the aforementioned

maiden and allowance races

leading up to those two stakes, as

you can often unearth several live

contenders at overlaid odds. As

always, trip handicapping is one of

the last handicapping stones that is

virtually unturned, so take some

detailed notes to get a good handle

on the competition.

And to take it one step further

while revisiting what I mentioned

above, winning from off the pace

isn’t easy at Gulfstream, but a

long-striding 3-year-old that is able

to overcome the track profile and

make headway in the stakes races

might be worth a long look as he

continues down the path to the

first Saturday in May.

Chasing That Rainbow

If you’ve followed me on

Xpressbet’s website through my

weekly blogs, or in our online

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chats, you know by now I’m a big

proponent of Gulfstream’s

Rainbow 6 wager. Simply, it’s a

$0.20 base wager that pays out the

full pool only if there is one single

winner. If there isn’t one single

winner, the majority of the pool

carries over and the rest is divided

among the multiple winners who

did hit all six races. It grows in a

hurry and, at such a small base

wager, allows for the little guy to

join in on the fun and

get a ton of bang for

their wagering buck.

I don’t get involved

until the pool gets well

above $100,000 and starts to

attract national attention. When

this is the case, it offers daily

opportunities to hit a relatively

formful sequence and still get paid

handsomely. I’ll offer one caveat,

and it may be an odd one: I’m not

trying to be the single winner.

Frankly, I’m not that good, not that

naïve and not that wealthy that I

can throw thousands of dollars at

the bet on a daily basis, hoping for

that one monumental score. I like

to play for anywhere from $20-

$80, in the hopes of turning that

into $800-$5,000. And don’t forget,

with a $0.20 base play you can

have a ton of coverage on a ticket

that falls within my range. What I

like to try and do is identify one or

two races in the sequence that

could offer chaos and use as many

horses with a hint of form that I

can. I’ll also always look for one

single – a horse I can hang my hat

on and be okay with

losing should he/she

do the same. The

beauty of a minimal

play is that you don’t

have to pull your hair

out if a 5-2 single goes down in

flames (you didn’t have that much

tied into said horse).

With my budget, I don’t want to be

getting involved in a sequence that

looks impossible, because I know I

have no chance and will simply be

throwing my money down the

wagering drain. When that’s the

case, I just pass knowing there’s a

great chance no one will have a

single winning ticket anyway, and I

will just look to tomorrow.

There’s always tomorrow. – HPN

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Oaklawn

Unveiling By Jerry Shottenkirk

When Danza streaked along the

rail and captured the Arkansas

Derby (pictured), it meant the

end of a captivating 2014 Oaklawn

Park racing season.

Before Danza was even pulled up,

the wheels were in motion for

2015, and Oaklawn has given

plenty of reasons to look forward

to the season that starts on Jan. 9

and ends on April 11.

The most significant change is an

incentives program for Lasix-free

horses. Oaklawn owner Charles

Cella has called the incentives

experimental and his track is

offering a 10-percent bonus of a

winner’s share for horses that run

and win.

Incentives available up to a total of

$1.4 million for the season will be

available. That means a possibility

of a $1,080 bonus for the lowest

level and up to $60,000 for the

Arkansas Derby.

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It may be a step in the right

direction, but it doesn’t make

handicapping any easier.

Perhaps horses can run to their par

or even better without Lasix. Over

this track and during this season,

it’s going to take a start to find out.

It puts a wrinkle in a handicapper’s

approach to gauging if Lasix is a

necessity for certain horses.

Handicapping at

Oaklawn is

challenging,

particularly in

the first part of

the season.

Some horses

come into the

season after time

away from the races; many others

come in from tracks in the Mid-

South region and hit Hot Springs,

Ark., running.

A good number of horses-for-

courses become common. No less

than 15 runners won 3 or more

times last season. If they adapt to

the track, they often continue the

success, and with that, they often

continue that success at other

ports. The best example from last

year was Moonshine Mullin.

After setting for third in an optional

claiming race in his first outing of

the season, he reeled off wins in

an $80,000 claiming race and a

couple of optional claimers. He

went on to Churchill Downs, where

he beat the heavy hitters in the G2

Alysheba and G1 Stephen Foster.

He outlasted Will

Take Charge,

Departing and

Revolutionary,

among others.

He was claimed

during the ’13

fall season at

Remington Park,

and owner Randy Patterson and

trainer Randy Morse enjoyed the

Moonshine magic often during the

Oaklawn season.

Oaklawn was home to a few other

horses that developed into some of

the country’s best. Work All Week

won a sprint to start off the year at

Oaklawn and Don’t Tell Sophia

worked her way into the elite after

developing into a great runner over

the OP strip.

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There is no reason to believe the

talent in 2015 cannot be on par

with last year. In fact, it might be

better. Work All Week, who went

on to win the Breeders’ Cup Sprint,

is expected to run. Graded winner

Don’t Tell Sophia is expected to

battle in the track’s lucrative stakes

program, and Breeders’ Cup

Juvenile Fillies champ Take Charge

Brandi, Moonshine Mullin, and the

Steve Asmussen-trained duo of

Tapiture and Breeders’ Cup Distaff

heroine Untapable are expected to

compete later in the season.

Oaklawn has its usual pair of G1

races in the $1 million Arkansas

Derby (April 11)

and the $600,000

Apple Blossom

(April 10). The G2

Rebel Stakes

(March 14) offers

$750,000, the G3

Fantasy Stakes

(April 4) is worth

$400,000, the G3

Count Fleet (April

9) brings a purse

of $300,000 and

the G2 Oaklawn

Handicap (April 11) offers

$600,000.

While the stakes program is as

lucrative as any in the country, the

daily cards bring quality and have

been a showcase for many trainers

whose horses are ready to go once

they begin racing at the Spa, which

opened in 1904.

It’s never a surprise when

Asmussen wins a training title, but

he was particularly dominant in

2014 and will return with his usual

strong cast of characters.

Asmussen-trained horses won 22

percent of their races and more

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than $1.8 million in purses – nearly

twice the amount of nearest

competitor D. Wayne Lukas.

However, while the “power” stables

have done well, they haven’t been

alone. One of the most notable is

the stable of Federico Villafranco,

who has trained a powerful string

for owner Danny Caldwell over the

past few years. In 2014, Villafranco

trainees won 25 of

82 races for 30-

percent success.

Some of the

country’s most

successful

conditioners pop up on a daily

basis. Kenny McPeek, Mark Casse,

Wayne Catalano, Tony Dutrow,

Bret Calhoun, Chris Richard and

Donnie Von Hemel are regulars

here, and J.R. Caldwell and Cody

Autrey and many others will have

their stables ready to go.

As one would expect, Asmussen’s

first-call rider in this area – Ricardo

Santana, Jr. – dominated. He won

59 races and his mounts earned in

excess of $2.5 million. Norberto

Arroyo, Jr. won 31 races and $1.1

million in mount earnings, and

Channing Hill won 18 races and

just over $1 million in mount

earnings. Jon Court captured 26

races and his mounts earnings

were $990,000. Court comes in off

a renaissance Fall Meet at

Churchill. The outstanding,

regional-based Cliff Berry always is

in the top 10 and gets his share of

“live” mounts as well, as does

journeyman Luis

Quinonez.

Trainers who

frequent Churchill

Downs, Fair Grounds,

Remington Park,

Hawthorne, Turfway and Delta

Downs often fill much of the card

to start off the season, but once

the big-money races begin, New

Yorkers, Floridians and Californians

will make their presence felt.

Oaklawn often works best for

speed horses, but it’s certainly

possible to get it done off the pace.

The short stretch of mile races,

which begin and end at the

sixteenth-pole, often make it

difficult to run down the speed. But

more times than not, it is a fair-

playing track. - HPN

Oaklawn often works

best for speed horses,

but it’s certainly possible

to get it done off the

pace.

33

34

SANTA ANITA

PREVIEW By Jeremy Plonk

he defined seasons of

Southern California racing

have taken a noticeable

turn of late. When you’ve balanced

the annual turkey dinner at

Thanksgiving with both the Detroit

Lions and Del Mar racing action,

you know things have changed.

But there’s something about Dec.

26 that still rings true on this

circuit. Opening day at Santa Anita

for the winter meeting (no matter

how long it now lasts), still feels

like a kickoff to the New Year.

After three consecutive SA years

that culminated with Breeders’ Cup

bids, the 2014-’15 campaign at the

Great Race Place will have a

different feel as the championships

move to Keeneland in the autumn.

Perhaps once again, Santa Anita’s

prized stakes schedule can resume

more of its historical atmosphere

T

35

and become less of a stopping-off

point for the Breeders’ Cup.

In all, eight Grade 1 races will be

run at the upcoming winter meet,

which concludes April 19 before

rebranding and reloading with a

spring meet April 25-June 28.

For me, the Santa Anita winter

meet always has been about two

of those premier Grade 1s – the

March 7 Santa Anita Handicap and

the April 9 Santa

Anita Derby. With

all due respect to

the other divisions,

it’s those marquee

races for the top

colts and geldings

on the west coast

that rev my motor. There’s

something about the ‘Big Cap that

tugs at my sense of importance like

no other handicap race in the

country. It’s not always a showcase

of Hall of Famers-to-be, but it pulls

you in like it could be. That’s the

sign of a great race.

The same can be said about the

Santa Anita Derby. In any given

year, the west coast could pop THE

horse for the Triple Crown trail.

Recent runners like I’ll Have

Another and California Chrome

have proven that, and the Santa

Anita Derby historically has

produced as many ‘wow’ moments

as any 3-year-old spring stakes

that I can recall. Think Mister

Frisky. Think Winning Colors. Think

Sunday Silence. Think Point Given.

The Daily Approach

No doubt the weekend stakes

menu at Santa Anita

stacks up with any

locale in America. But

the four-day race

week (Thursday-

Sunday) that has

become the norm in

Arcadia provides a

significantly different product from

a wagering standpoint.

Last year’s 69-day winter meeting

saw handle grow 4% over the

same dates the season prior.

But as has been a national problem

with a shrunken foal crop since

2008, the average field size during

the winter meeting dropped from

8.08 starters per race in 2013 to

7.66 last season.

The player’s pick five,

the first five races on the

card, remains one of the

circuit’s best bets with

just a 14% takeout.

36

Betting Southern California requires

horseplayers to compound value

via the multi-race wagers given the

field-size issues. Consider that a

series of 6-horse fields in a pick

three still offers 216 combinations

vs. the 120 possibilities for an

intra-race trifecta in those same 6-

horse fields. String together a

quintet of 7-horse line-ups in a pick

five and you have 16,849 combos

and a reasonable way to turn $30

into $1,500 without

tapping your inner-

Powerball supply of

luck. The player’s

pick five, the first

five races on the

card, remains one

of the circuit’s best

bets with just a 14% takeout.

Who’s Hot, Who’s Not?

Jerry Hollendorfer, John Sadler and

Bob Baffert all finished within a

single victory for the leading trainer

title at last year’s winter meet and

all won at a 20% rate or more. If

you go back two seasons, only

three wins separated that power

trio atop the standings. Nothing on

the landscape has changed to think

those three won’t be players once

again. So how do you separate?

Baffert went just 3-for-16 with

first-time starters at last year’s

winter meet, while Sadler was 3-

for-8 with more limited strikes.

Hollendorfer went 1-for-7 in debuts

at the meet.

On turf, the advantage also went

to Sadler with 16 grass wins at the

meet – Hollendorfer had 10,

Baffert just 2. Both

Sadler and the ‘Dorf

scored at 19% on the

green.

The trio also led the

colony in stakes wins,

paced by Sadler’s 8

(31% wins), Baffert (22%) and

Hollendorfer (12%) each had 7.

Because Del Mar has replaced

Hollywood as the circuit’s lead-in,

it’s worth nothing that early in the

Dmr stand, Baffert has started

about half as many runners as

Hollendorfer and Sadler, and may

have more horses with more

conditions to attack for the start of

the Santa Anita meeting. Don’t be

surprised if the white-haired one

Don’t be surprised if the

white-haired one gets

off to a flying start at

the SA stand with more

bullets to fire.

37

gets off to a flying start at the SA

stand with more bullets to fire.

Rafael Bejarano (pictured)

annihilated the rider’s standings

during the last winter meet. And

his autumn return to the top during

the former Oak Tree timeframe

indicates that his summer Santa

Anita swoon this year was an

aberration.

Bejarano nearly doubled-up any

other rider in turf wins last winter

at SA, winning exactly as many

times as No. 2 and 3-rated grass

riders Joe Talamo and Corey

Nakatani combined.

When it came to the money races,

it was no surprise to see veterans

Mike Smith (10 winners, 18%) and

Gary Stevens (9 winners, 25%)

atop the stakes mix last SA winter.

Bejarano (9 winners, 15%) and

Nakatani (9 winners, 22%) also

were in high demand in stakes.

-HPN

38

New Meadowlands Inaugural Season a Success

By Ken Warkentin

The inaugural season at the New Meadowlands began on November 23, 2013 when a sparkling, state-of-the-art grandstand was unveiled opposite the original building. The great Foiled Again, the richest pacer of all time, joined the sport’s first $4 million pacer and now-retired Gallo Blue Chip to help launch the grand opening. They were photographed side-by-side in a very special winner’s circle presentation (pictured right) and a new era was underway.

Foiled Again wrapped up his third straight division title in the inaugural TVG FFA Pace. The 10-year-old passed the $6 million mark, and symbolized the dominance of Yannick Gingras, who won his third straight driving title, and leading trainer Ron Burke, who passed his own astounding earnings record in 2014.

Typically, several stars of the sport, such as Sweet Lou, Trixton, JK Endofanera and Always B Miki kick-started their campaigns at the Big M, but one of the biggest stories of the meet was the arrival of European super trotter Sebastian K and his Swedish trainer/driver Ake Svanstedt, who unleashed his eight-year-old barefoot wonder on May 10. Sebastian K’s first American start was an astounding world record- equaling 1:50.1. What a way to say hello!

39

Sebastion K came right back the following week to set a stakes record of 1:50.2 in the Arthur J. Cutler Memorial. He would then become the fastest trotter in history with a 1:49 mile at Pocono Downs, and later equaled the mile-track world record of 1:50 in the John Cashman, Jr. Memorial. Ake Svanstedt would also fuel his Hambletonian dreams by winning the Peter Haughton Memorial with Centurion ATM in a world record-equaling 1:53.2.

On the pacing side, Sweet Lou certainly did his share to grab the spotlight in 2014 with an amazing streak of his own. The five-year-old Ron Burke trainee reeled off 10 straight wins, all with Hall of Famer Ron Pierce in the sulky, including a record six sub-1:48 miles, and major wins in the William Haughton Memorial in 1:47.1 and the US Pacing Championship in 1:47.2, while

pushing past $3 million. Other Ron Burke stable highlights came with world champion trotting filly and Merrie Annabelle winner Mission Brief, and double millionaire pacing mare Rocklamation, who won the Golden Girls and Lady Liberty.

Going into the season, Hall of Fame trainer Jimmy Takter had a lock on the Hambletonian

with a titanic trio of Father

Patrick, Nuncio and Trixton. World champion Father Patrick went into the big dance on a 15-race winning streak, and fresh off a

1:51.3 victory over his stablemates in the Stanley Dancer Memorial. But when the big favorite made a break from post 10, and Nuncio took on heavy pressure, Takter himself had Trixton poised to pounce and won the second-fastest Hambo ever in 1:50.3. Takter also captured the Hambletonian Oaks with Lifetime Pursuit in a world

40

record of 1:50.4, one of five stakes wins on the day for superstar driver Yannick Gingras.

Trainer Tony Alagna continued to produce a string of young stars like the outstanding Artspeak, the follow-up to triple millionaire Captaintreacherous, a freshman son of Western Ideal who won his first seven starts, including the NJSS Final, and part of a successful Top 5 first season at the Meadowlands for rising star catch driver Scott Zeron.

The 2014 Meadowlands Pace once again produced drama and excitement, and a $3,000 bargain, He’s Watching, and Tim Tetrick exploded to equal the all-time fastest race mile of 1:46.4. It was the Bionic Man’s fourth Pace trophy, and sparked a rousing celebration for Canadian trainer Dave Menary (pictured).

The New Meadowlands also was center stage for the track’s all-time leading driver, John Campbell, who won a NJSS Final with Doo Wop Hanover and was second in his 28th

Hambo appearance with Nuncio.

Brothers Ray and Larry Remmen, the track’s all time leading stable at $30 million, won the Mistletoe Shalee with Sandbetweenurtoes.

Stacy Chiodo enjoyed her own memorable moment. New Jersey’s sweetheart became the first female driver to break 1:50 with her 11-year-old pacer Mighty Young Joe in 1:49.3.

Newcomers like Brett Miller, Dan Rawlings, Nancy Johansson, Tyler Smith and Vinnie Ginsberg all made their mark during the first season in front of the fabulous new building.

Overall, the first season at the New Meadowlands yielded promising results, strong handles, positive feedback about the stunning venue and its amenities, customer service from a proud team, nightly fan-friendly promotions and world-class harness racing, capped by a blockbuster Hambletonian Day.

The tradition of attracting top stars with great events, staging classic moments and creating modern day success continues into a bright future at Meadowlands Racing and Entertainment!

-HPN

41

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42

Who Pays Attention to

Quarter Horse Racing?

You Should. By Denis Blake

I used to think about American Quarter Horse racing in the same way many of you probably do. In other words, I didn’t. Yes, I was aware that it existed…but betting on it? No.

As a horseplayer, I had learned to stick to what I knew, and I didn’t know much about Quarter Horse racing. Then one day at Canterbury Park, the Quarter Horses demanded that I stand up and take notice of them. At the time I was a handicapper for Daily Racing Form, and my normal routine in the press box was to pay close attention to the Thoroughbred races and then start to handicap the next day’s races when the Quarter Horse races started (usually the last two or three races).

That particular day was no different. I played the Thoroughbred races, and then turned my attention to next day’s handicapping puzzle. I didn’t pay much attention to the two Quarter Horse races but did notice that one jockey had swept both races.

I had all but forgotten about that by the time the next day’s races came around. But then the same rider won the first Quarter Horse race of the card on a 6-1 shot. Despite the track announcer mentioning the rider’s hot streak, he went off at 10-1 in the next race on a horse that looked solid and promptly ran his streak to four. In the final race of the day, he was on a contender. Once more, despite many reminders of his hot streak by the announcer, the public

43

did not seem to notice, and he won again at 4-1.

I started to realize that I may have uncovered something – no one was paying much attention to the Quarter Horses. I started out slowly, but after a little practice and research, I improved my Quarter Horse handicapping skills and started to turn a profit. It seemed that the public did not really know how to handicap the breed. I also found that it was easier to make money betting on them, and not because favorites win at a higher rate.

I usually avoid chalk, and although favorites do win more often in Quarter Horse racing, it seems overlays are also easier to spot. Besides being oblivious to the previously mentioned jockey streak, the betting public often does not adapt their Thoroughbred handicapping skills to Quarter Horse racing. And while the nation’s premier Quarter Horse tracks, such as Los Alamitos and Remington Park, certainly do have dedicated and knowledgeable handicappers playing their races, at many other tracks with Quarter

Horse racing (especially those that are primarily Thoroughbred venues) most of the money wagered comes from simulcast/online outlets where players are accustomed to Thoroughbred racing.

So how do you adjust your Thoroughbred skills to play Quarter Horses? Much is the same, but there are differences. When it

comes to distances, keep in mind that because of the shorter races for Quarter Horses, an ideal distance may not be much different than a not-so-ideal distance.

Obviously the difference between an 870-yard race (about four furlongs) and a 350-yard sprint (a little more than 1 ½ furlongs) is easy to understand, but even the difference between 400 and 440 yards can be significant.

Some Quarter Horses excel in those final 40 yards while others tire and fade. Just because a horse can win going 4 00 does not necessarily mean he can go 440. That is often ignored by the betting public.

So how do you adjust

your Thoroughbred skills

to play Quarter Horses?

Much is the same, but

there are differences.

44

One pitfall to look out for is the “finish position trap.” When you are glancing through a Quarter Horse’s past performances, don’t give too much credence to his position in the order of finish. Instead, keep your eyes on how far back he was with respect to the winner (in addition to his final time and speed rating). It is not uncommon for a Quarter Horse to finish fifth by a length or less. Was such a horse a contender? Quite possibly. Maybe he was just the victim of a closely-matched field with a blanket finish. Or perhaps a bump out of the gate hurt his chances.

If a Thoroughbred finishes fifth, was he in contention at the end? Probably not. My point is this – if you see a Thoroughbred that has finished in the middle of the pack, he’s was probably outrun. But for a Quarter Horse, that may not always be the case. On the flip side, be sure to keep the beaten lengths in perspective for the two breeds. A Thoroughbred who finished four lengths behind the winner likely ran a respectable

race, but a Quarter Horse beaten by four lengths was likely outrun.

Handicapping trouble is another area that can be vastly different. A slow break or some bumping out of the gate in a one-mile race is generally no big deal, but for a Quarter Horse it can be devastating. I am much more forgiving when it comes to

completely throwing out a Quarter Horse’s poor performance. Even if he broke just a half-length back or got bumped out of the gate, either could have cost him a chance to

win, and an off-the-board finish after a little trouble will always help the odds next time out. Just be careful of horses with chronic, self-inflicted problems at the gate. Also, watch for a horse that might get “pulled” to a better-than-expected effort. If there is a clear-cut winner, give the horses to his immediate inside and outside an extra look. Sometimes those horses will jump up and run a big race as they chase, or seem to get “pulled,” by a superior runner (as opposed to keeping pace with

45

another horse who might not be a factor in the race).

Another thing to keep in mind for those on the fence about wagering on Quarter Horses is that the abundance Thoroughbred handicapping information has eliminated many overlays that used to exist for that breed. Today’s elite handicappers have more available information than ever, and for the most part, they do not bet on Quarter Horses. Would you rather enter a pari-mutuel battle against a group that includes seasoned pros, or one that includes bettors who do not fully understand Quarter Horse racing yet are happy to put their money into the pool?

Just as the early pioneers of Thoroughbred speed figures enjoyed great success, so can those who take the time and effort to handicap Quarter Horse racing. We all know that one of the keys to winning at pari-mutuel wagering is being smarter and better informed than your competition. That is a tall order regardless of what breed you are betting, but it’s not quite so daunting a task in Quarter Horse racing.

Denis Blake is one of the American Quarter Horse Association’s Racing Aces and is also editor of American Racehorse and The Horsemen’s Journal magazines.

Will History be Made at Los Alamitos?

If you are curious to try your hand at Quarter Horse racing, check out the card at Los Alamitos on December 14 when Heza Dasha Fire is scheduled to race in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Two Million Futurity. The gelding has a perfect six-for-six record and would earn the $1 million Los Alamitos Cash Bonanza with a victory to complete a sweep of the track’s three major futurities. He would become the first horse ever to win the bonus, and it would put him within striking distance of Quarter Horse racing’s all-time earnings mark of nearly $2.8 million set by Ochoa.

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Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!

Point Given / Photos By Z

DECEMBER 2014 6 Claiming Crown (GP), 8 stakes Jennings (Lrl), 3&up, 8F Marylander (Lrl), 2yo, 7F Willa on the Move (Lrl), f/m, 6F Gin Talking (Lrl), 2yof, 7F Kingarvie (WO), 2yo, 8.5F Garland of Roses (Aqu), f/m, 6F Inaugural (Tam), 2yo, 6F Sandpiper (Tam), 2yof, 6F PA Nursery (Prx), 2yo, 7F Holiday Inaugural (TP), f/m, 6F Gold Rush (GG), 2yo, 8F Lightning Jet (Haw), 3&up, 6F Powerless (Haw), f/m, 6F Arizona Breeders (TuP), 4 stakes KLAQ (Sun), 3&up, 5.5F

7 Valedictory (WO), 3&up, 14F Soviet Problem (LA), 2yof, 7F Jamison (Sun), 3&up, 6.5F NM Commission (Sun), f/m, 6F

12 Magic City (FG), 3&up, 1m70y Kudzu (FG), 2yo, 5.5F

13 Starlet (LA), 2yof, 8.5F LA Champions Day (FG), 8 stakes Sugar Swirl (GP), f/m, 6F El Prado (GP), 3&up, 7.5F-T South Beach (GP), f/m, 7.5F-T Harlan’s Holiday (GP), 3&up, 8.5F IL Futurity (Haw), 2yo, 8.5F IL Debutante (Haw), 2yof, 8.5F

14 Springboard Mile (RP), 2yo, 8F Trapeze (RP), 2yof, 8F Useeit (RP), 3yof, 8F Jim Thorpe (RP), 3yo, 8F She’s All In (RP), f/m, 8.5F King Glorious (LA), 2yo, 7F Damon Runyon (Aqu), 2yo, 1m70y East View (Aqu), 2yof, 1m70y Enchantress (Sun), 2yof, 8F OR Showcase (PM), 7 stakes

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Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!

19 Lookout (DeD), f/m, 7.5F

20 Los Al Futurity (LA), 2yo, 8.5F Trpcl Prk Derby (GP), 3yo, 8.5F-T Trpcl Prk Oaks (GP), 3yof, 8.5F-T Sugar Bowl (FG), 2yo, 6F Letellier (FG), 2yof, 6F Prairie Bayou (TP), 3&up, 8.5F B-Connected (DeD), 3&up, 7.5F Bold Ego (Sun), f/m, 5.5F Hank Mills (TuP), 3&up, 8F-T Kachina (TuP), f/m, 8F-T Eleanor Casey (CT), 2yof, 7F

21 KHEY Sprint (Sun), 3yo, 6.5F

23 Gift of the Magi (Prx), 3&up, 7F Mistletoe (Prx), f/m, 6F

26 Malibu (SA), 3yo, 7F La Brea (SA), 3yof, 7F Mathis Bros Mile (SA), 3yo, 8F-T MD Juv Filly Champ (Lrl), 2yof, 7F Gravesend (Aqu), 3&up, 6F

27 Midnight Lute (SA), 3&up, 6.5F Bobby Frankel (SA), f/m, 9F-T

Eddie Logan (SA), 2yo, 8F-T Pago Hop (FG), 3yof, 8F-T Woodchopper (FG), 3yo, 8F-T McKnight (GP), 3&up, 12F-T La Prevoyante (GP), f/m, 12F-T Mr. Prospector (GP), 3&up, 6F MD Juvenile Champ (Lrl), 2yo, 7F Pasco (Tam), 2yo, 7F Gasparilla (Tam), 2yof, 7F Red Hedeman Mile (Sun), 2yo, 8F Lost in the Fog (TuP), 2yo, 6.5F AZ Juvenile Fillies (TuP), 2yof, 6.5F

28 Daytona (SA), 3&up, 6.5F-T Kalookan Queen (SA), f/m, 6.5F-T NY Stallion Series (Aqu), 2 stakes Dominguez (Sun), 3&up, 8.5F

30 Auld Lang Syne (Prx), 3&up, 1m70y Valley Forge (Prx), 3&up, 6F

31 Luke Kruytbosch (TuP), 3yo, 8.5F (pictured right)

LA Futurity (FG), 2 stakes Bay Ridge (Aqu), f/m, 8.5F Alex Robb (Aqu), 3&up, 8.5F

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Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!

Dec 2 – Online: Night SchoolDec 3 – Online: Woodbine Chat Dec 3 – AQHA national poll Dec 4 – Los Alamitos (TB) opens Dec 4 – Turfway Park opens Dec 5 – Online: Remington chat Dec 5 – Sunland Park opens Dec 5 – Finger Lakes closes Dec 6 – Gulfstream winter opens Dec 7 – Woodbine closes Dec 10 – AQHA national poll Dec 12 – Online: Remington chat Dec 14 – Online: Remington chat Dec 14 – Remington Park closes Dec 14 – Golden Gate closes Dec 17 – AQHA national poll Dec 21 – Los Alamitos (TB) closes Dec 23 – AQHA national poll Dec 26 – Santa Anita opens Dec 27 – Online: Saturday Social Dec 31 – AQHA national poll

49

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE MALIBU: Sprinters have had far more success than routers turning back in distance in the season’s final G1 for the 3-year-olds. The last true router to win this race – and last ‘name’ 3YO from the Triple Crown trail – was Rock Hard Ten in ’04. Also don’t be afraid of a layoff, nor a bounce-back from a poor effort. Eight of the last 10 winners finished 3rd or worse in their most-recent prep before Malibu success.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: The ‘other’ Baffert, Shakin It Up, upset 9/5 favorite and stablemate Flashback in a complete pace meltdown. The win was jockey David Flores’ 3rd in the last 7 years.

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES:

Last 10 Winners – Full History ’13 Shakin It Up B. Baffert D. Flores

’12 Jimmy Creed R. Mandella G. Gomez ’11 The Factor B. Baffert M. Garcia

’10 Twirling Candy J. Sadler J. Rosario

‘09 M One Rifle B. Headley M. Smith

’08 Bob Black Jack J. Kasparoff D. Flores

’07 Johnny Eves J. Robbins D. Flores ’06 Latent Heat B. Frankel E. Prado

’05 Proud Tower Too S. Gonzalez D. Cohen

’04 Rock Hard Ten R. Mandella G. Stevens

Last 10 Winners’ Preps ’13 Shakin It Up 4th, Sunland Derby (Sun) ’12 Jimmy Creed 9th, Breeders’ Cup Sprint (SA)

’11 The Factor 8th, Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (CD) ’10 Twirling Candy 4th, Goodwood (Hol)

‘09 M One Rifle 3rd, allowance (Hol)

’08 Bob Black Jack 5th, Underwood (Hol) ’07 Johnny Eves 1st, allowance (Hol)

’06 Latent Heat 9th, Perryville (Kee) ’05 Proud Tower Too 1st, On Trust Hcp (Hol)

’04 Rock Hard Ten 6th, Haskell (Mth)

MALIBU STAKES

December 26, 2014 SANTA ANITA PARK

DECEMBER RACE OF THE MONTH

Shakin It Up scored a 17/1 surprise last year over Central Banker. Click video to watch the replay!

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1 RACETRACK DRIVE • E. RUTHERFORD, NJ • PLAYMEADOWLANDS.COM

FRIDAYS & SATURDAYS • FIRST POST 7:15 PM

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14 Things We Learned in ‘14.

The older you get, the smarter you get. It’s something oh so true, but oh so infuriating to hear when you’re young and think you have the world at your fingertips. It’s only with age that we learn that we still have a lot to learn. The year 2014 gave the sage a few more things to gather.

1. They can still run out west.California Chrome & Bayern proved a watered-down, daily, west-coast scene can still bring a big horse. 2. Dan’s still the man. Even atage 7, Wise Dan ran the table at 4-for-4 with colic surgery in-between. 3. In Graham we trust. Our bestturf trainer Graham Motion pitched a perfect game with import Main Sequence and trumped the Euros. 4. Poly means ‘many’ for areason. The dirt racing at Keeneland was high-end superb during the Fall, but field sizes suffered without the Polytrack. 5. Gary’s a gamer. Kneereplacement surgery couldn’t keep Stevens out of the saddle for long. 6. Rainbow bright. Someonelikes the Rainbow Six at Gulfstream, a surprise to this eye.

7. Worldwide Ward. Wesleyproved more than a 2yo sprint ace. 8. Paltry Pletcher veterans. NoTAP starters over age 2 in BC. 9. Three blind mice. See howthey miss a Classic disqualification. 10. Mainstream misfires. TheEsquire TV show Horseplayers was solid racing viewing, but a Nielsen bust, and canceled after 1 season. 11. Hot young gun. The new faceof the tournament game might be Matt Bernier, 24, and it will be interesting to see how this sharpie handles his success. 12. Twins Spires to GoldenDome. Churchill Downs became the Notre Dame of horse racing, providing a historic culture second to none once again, also spurring an opposition force like no other. 13. Rosie in bloom. Napravnik’sabrupt retirement to start a family came before she could shut up the last of the chauvinists still questioning her superior skills. 14. Life’s too short. Rest inpeace, young man. Juan Saez, 17.

– JP

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