How thin film PV will meet the TW scale

generation?

Giulio Mazzotta, Christos Potamialis, Peter Yates

Liverpool, 14/11/2014

G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 1 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?

The energy problem

G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 2 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?

Source: International Energy Agency, 2013

120 000 TW·year

17.4 TW·year

World Primary EnergySupply, 2011Source: IEA, 2013

Average solar energy reachingEarth surface every year

Source: V. Smil, OCSE, 2006

Solar EnergyActual distribution of energy sources

**:eolic, geothermal, solar

Carbon Dioxide!

G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 3 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?

“Limiting warming to 2.5 °C or 3 °C involvessimilar challenges, but less quickly. Thesepathways would require substantial emissionsreductions over the next few decades, andnear zero emissions of CO2 and other longlived GHGs over by the end of the century.”

Source: OICA, 2013

CLIMATE CHANGE 2014 SYNTHESIS REPORT, IPCC

What surface do we need?

G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 4 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?

1 TW production:

Let’s assume:

20% efficiency (let’s be optimistic!) Intensity 1000 W/m2

=5 000 km2

MONEY!

G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 5 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?

Source: Fraunhofer Institute, 2013

Existing manufacturing

G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 6 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?

Existing installed capacity: 102 GW (data from: EPIA)

(data from: Fraunhofer Inst.)

Current thin-film technology: CdTe

G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 7 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?

• Absorber thickness ≈ 2μm

• Tellurium in Active Layer ≈ 50%

• Module efficiency ≈ 15%

Picture from Speirs et al, UKNERC

Current thin-film technology: CIGS

G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 8 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?

• Absorber thickness ≈ 2μm

• Indium in Active Layer ≈ 20%-30%

• Module efficiency of ≈ 12%

Picture from Speirs et al, UKNERC

Emerging thin-film technologies

G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 9 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?

• CZTS• Organometal Halide hybrid

perovskites• Organic

picture from: mibsolar.mater.unimib.itpicture from: Lee et al, Science 338, 643 (2012);picture from: spie.org

Earth abundance of materials

G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 10 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?

1 TW from CdTe:

93 000 tons of Te required1

80 tonnes/year2 increase

≈ 50 years for TW prod

(1): wikipedia.org

Graph from Speirs et al, UKERC

Tellurium production

Earth abundance of materials (2)

G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 11 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?

Graph from Speirs et al, UKERC

Indium production

CdTe production

G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 12 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?

Source: Fthenakis, MRS Bulletin, 37,2012

Market growth and projections

G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 13 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?

Source IEA, 2008

Technical solutions

G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 14 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?

Ground mounted Commercial

Residential roof mounted Building integration

Summary

G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 15 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?

• TW production by 2050 with solar power isachievable

• Is unlikely to be done with only one technology

• How much each technology will contributedepends on the success of current R&D of eachtechnology