HOW WELL IS WASHINGTON

PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE,

CAREERS AND LIFE

September 2012

2

Why College- and Career-Ready Expectations for All?

The Economic Imperative: A high school diploma is no longer enough; now, nearly every good job requires some education beyond high school and all students need to be academically prepared to compete for good jobs in the global economy.

The Equity Imperative: Far too many students drop out or graduate from high school unprepared for success. Students in minority groups drop out and fail to attain postsecondary credentials at much higher rates than their counterparts.

The Expectations Imperative: The bar has been set too low for too long, keeping students from reaching their full potential, closing doors and limiting their post-high school options and opportunities.

What Does it Mean to be College- and Career-Ready? To be college- and career-ready, high school graduates must have studied a rigorous and broad curriculum anchored in the demands of postsecondary and business that is grounded in the core academic disciplines, but also consisting of other subjects that are part of a well-rounded education.

THE ECONOMIC IMPERATIVE: A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA IS NOLONGER ENOUGH FOR SUCCESSThe changing economy is accelerating theskills mismatch, as careers increasingly requiresome education/training beyond high school,and more developed knowledge and skills

4

Why College and Career Readiness Is Imperative for Our Economic Future

Employer Expectations: Employers increasingly need their employees to use a broader set of skills than have been required in the past to meet the increasingly complex demand coming from the modernized workplace.

Skills Mismatch: While fifty years ago a large proportion of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less, today only one-fifth of jobs are considered unskilled. The demand for higher skilled workers has increased, while the production of higher skilled workers has remained flat.

International Advantage: Other nations are surpassing the U.S. in improving their educational systems to increase achievement, reduce achievement gaps, and educating themselves as a way to a better economy, while the U.S. remains stagnant.

Personal Benefits: More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment. Educational attainment isn’t just a benefit in the short-term; more education is correlated with larger projections of lifetime earnings at every level of the pipeline.

5Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. ww9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf

Employer Expectations: Education and Training and Requirements Over Time

Bachelor's & HigherSome College /

Associate's Degree

High School GraduateHigh School

Dropout

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%33%

29%28%

10%

32%27%30%

11%

16%

12%

40%

32%

Percentage of Workforce by Education Level201820021973

6Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition. http://www.bls.gov/oco/oco2003.htm

Employer Expectations: Increased Demand for Postsecondary Education and Training

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

8%8%8%8%

13%

17%17% 18 18%19%

Percent Change in Employment, by Education or Training Category, 2008-18

7Source: Holzer, Harry J. and Robert I. Lerman (February 2009). The Future of Middle-Skill Jobs. Brookings Institution.

Employer Expectations: The Rise of Middle-Skill Jobs

High-skill jobs

Occupations in the professional/technical and managerial categories.

Often require four-year degrees and above

Middle-skill jobs

Occupations that include clerical, sales, construction, installation/repair, production, and transportation/material moving.

Low-skill jobs

Occupations in the service and agricultural categories.

Often require some education and training beyond high school (but typically less than a bachelor’s degree), including associate’s degrees, vocational certificates, and significant on-the-job training.

8Source: National Skills Coalition (2010). The Bridge to a New Economy: Worker Training Fills the Gap. http://www.nationalskillscoalition.org/assets/reports-/the-bridge-to-a-new-economy.pdf ; National Skills Coalition (2011). State Middle Skill Fact Sheets. http://www.nationalskillscoalition.org/resources/fact-sheets/state-fact-sheets/

Employer Expectations: Employment Shares by Occupational Skill Level

Washington (2009)

U.S. (2009)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

20%

19%

48%

52%

32%

29%

High Skill Middle Skill Low Skill

9Sources: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna Desrochers (2003). Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K-12 Reform. Education Testing Services. http://www.learndoearn.org/For-Educators/Standards-for-What.pdf ; Skills to Compete. http://www.skills2compete.org National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

The Skills Mismatch: Demand for Middle-Skill Workers Outpaces Washington’s Supply

In 1950, 60% of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less. Today, 20% of jobs are considered to be unskilled.

One result: The demand for middle- and high-skilled workers is outpacing the state’s supply of workers educated and experienced at that level.

80% of Washington’s jobs are middle or high skills (jobs that require some postsecondary education or training).

Yet only 43% of Washington’s adults have some postsecondary degree (associate’s or higher).

10Source: ManPower Group. (2011). 2011 Talent Shortage Survey & McKinsey Global Institute (2011). An Economy that Works: Job Creation and America’s Future. www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/us_jobs/index.asp & Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Skills Mismatch: Jobs Are Going Unfilled

52% of employers reported difficulty in finding the right talent, up from 14% in 2010.

This is the highest U.S. percentage reported in ManPower Group’s annual survey’s six-year history.

Another 30% of companies, surveyed by McKinsey & Co, said they had job opening for six months or more because of lack of ideal/qualified candidates.

11Source: OECD, PISA 2009 Database. Statlink – http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932343342

International Advantage: Increased Competition from Abroad

While the benefits of graduating high school college- and career-ready and attaining some postsecondary credential affects each individual student, it also impacts our standing as a nation in an increasingly competitive global economy and workforce.

Education attainment and achievement in the U.S. have gone stagnant at a time when the global economy is demanding increased education and more complex skills – and other countries are responding.

U.S. students rank 12th in reading, 13th in science, and 24th in math on international testing.

12

Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2011. (All rates are self-reported) http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2008 and 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

International Advantage: America’s International Edge is Slipping in High School Graduation Rates

Iceland

U.K.

Netherlands

Norway

Ireland

Denmark

Germany

Israel

Canada

Poland

Korea

U.S.

Washington

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

% Young Adults (25-34) with HS Diploma+ % Adults (25-64) with HS Diploma+

13

Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2011. (All rates are self-reported.) http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

International Advantage: America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment

U.K.

Spain

France

Belgium

Israel

Denmark

Ireland

Norway

Japan

Canada

Korea

U.S.

Washin...

0 10 20 30 40 50 60% Young Adults (25-34) with College Degree % Adults (25-64) with College Degree

14

% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2006)55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 ALL (25-64)

1 U.S. (40%) Canada (44%) Canada (54%) Korea (58%) Canada (49%)

2 Canada (40%) Japan (43%) Japan (48%) Canada (56%) Japan (43%)

3 N.Z. (34%) U.S. (40%) Finland (44%) Japan (55%) U.S. (41%)

4 Finland (29%) N.Z. (38%) U.S. (43%) N.Z. (48%) N.Z. (40%)

5 Australia (28%) Finland (37%) Korea (43%) Norway (46%) Finland (37%)

6 Norway (28%) Australia (33%) N.Z. (40%) Ireland (45%) Korea (37%)

7 Switz. (27%) Denmark (32%) Norway (38%) Denmark (43%) Norway (36%)

8 U.K. (27%) Norway (32%) Australia (38%) Belgium (42%) Australia (36%)

9 Sweden (26%) Switz. (31%) Denmark (37%) Australia (42%) Denmark (34%)

10 Neth. (26%) Neth. (31%) Ireland (37%) U.S. (42%) Ireland (34%)

11 Denmark (26%) Iceland (30%) Switz. (36%) Sweden (41%) Switz. (34%)

12 Japan (26%) U.K. (30%) Iceland (36%) France (41%) U.K. (33%)

13 Germany (24%) Belgium (29%) Belgium (35%) Neth. (40%) Belgium (32%)

14 Iceland (24%) Sweden (28%) U.K. (33%) Spain (39%) Neth. (32%)

15 Belgium (22%) Ireland (27%) Sweden (33%) Luxembourg (39%) Sweden (32%)

45-64: Washington (42%) WA (45%) WA (41%) WA (43%)

Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2011. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en ; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

International Advantage: America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment

15

Personal Benefits: Higher Earnings and Rates of Employment

While there may be jobs available to high school dropouts and graduates, they often pay less and offer less security than jobs held by those with at least some postsecondary

experience.

The link between educational attainment and gainful employment is clear:

More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment.

16Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2011). Current Population Survey. Figures are based on the total persons in the civilian labor force. http://www.census.gov/cps/data/cpstablecreator.html

Personal Benefits: Higher Earnings and Rates of Employment

Washington Statistics: Total Unemployment: 11%, Mean Income: $36,788

Bachelor’s & Above

Some College

HS Graduate

HS Dropout

6%

9%

16%

27%

$63,467

$33,415

$28,053

$9,923

Mean Income Unemployment Rate

17Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf Analysis based on author’s analysis of March 2008 CPS data.

Personal Benefits: Increased Lifetime Earnings

$-

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000 Estimated Average Lifetime Earnings

by Education Level

THE EQUITY IMPERATIVE: CREATING EQUAL ACCESS AND PREPARATION FOR ALLFar too many students, especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, drop out or graduate from high school unprepared for real world challenges

19

Achievement Gaps Start Early: Washington’s 4th and 8th Grade Achievement Gaps

Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/

Subgroup4th Grade

Math(2011)

4th Grade Reading

(2011)

4th Grade Science (2009)

8th Grade Math (2011)

8th Grade

Reading (2011)

8th Grade Science(2011)

All Students 45% 34% 35% 40% 37% 35%

White 53% 42% 44% 46% 42% 43%

Black 20% 19% 8% 15% 22% 15%

Hispanic 22% 16% 10% 22% 17% 17%

Asian 62% 43% 41% 55% 51% 37%

American Indian 20% 19% 18% 12% 24% 17%

% At or Above Proficient on NAEP

20

Achievement Gaps Are About More than Race: Achievement Gaps Among Other Disadvantaged Populations

Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/

Subgroup4th

Grade Math (2011)

4th Grade

Reading (2011)

4th Grade Science (2009)

8th Grade Math (2011)

8th Grade Reading

(2011)

8th Grade Science(2011)

All Students 45% 34% 35% 40% 37% 35%

Low Income 24% 18% 17% 25% 22% 21%

English Language Learners

9% 2% n/a 3% 4% n/a

Students with Disabilities

18% 10% 14% 9% 8% 12%

% At or Above Proficient on NAEP

21

HispanicBlack

WhiteAll

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

U.S.

WA

9%

7%

4%

6%

11%

8%

4%5%

Teens Aged 16-19 Who Are Not in School and Not High School Graduates by Race, 2010

Achievement Gaps Continue Through High School: Minority Students Are More at Risk of Dropping Out

Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation. Kids Count Data Center. 2010, Teens ages 16 to 19 who are not in school and are not high school graduates by race (Percent). http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/acrossstates/Rankings.aspx

22

Achievement Gaps Continue Through High School: Graduation Rates

Source: Education Week (2012). Graduation in the United States. http://www.edweek.org/ew/toc/2012/06/07/

American IndianAsianHispanicBlackWhiteAll

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

U.S.WA

53%

80%

63%59%

78%73%

40%

78%

56%49%

71%68%

Percent of On-Time High School Graduates, 2009

23

Achievement Gaps Continue Into Postsecondary: College Completion

Source: NCES. IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey, analyzed by National Center for Management of Higher Education Systems.

American IndianAsianHispanicBlackWhiteAll

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

U.S.WA

39%

66%

47%41%

59%56%

41%

68%

51%47%

65%63%

Percent of Students Earning a Postsecondary Degree

THE EXPECTATIONS IMPERATIVE: WE’RE SETTING THE BAR TOO LOWWe’ve held students to low and inconsistent expectations for too long. As a result, too few graduates are successful and achieving college and career readiness.

25

Too Many Students Remain Off Track to Success: Of Every 100 9th Graders in Washington…

Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Student Pipeline - Transition and Completion Rates from 9th Grade to College. http://www.higheredinfo.org

020406080

100100

69

35 25 18

26

Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Students Participating in AP and Exceeding College and Career Readiness

Source: College Board (2012). AP Report to the Nation.http://apreport.collegeboard.org/sites/default/files/downloads/pdfs/AP_Main_Report_Final.pdf

U.S.

Washington

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

18%18%

30%30%

12th Graders who scored a 3+ on an AP Exam in High School12th Graders who took an AP Exam in High School

Percent of all 12th Graders Participating in Advanced Placement (2011)

27

Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Students Meeting College Readiness Benchmark

Source: ACT (2012). College Readiness Benchmark Attainment by State. http://www.act.org/newsroom/data/2012/benchmarks.html

EnglishReadingMathScienceAll 4 tests

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

U.S.WA

67%

52%46%

31%25%

76%66%

62%

42%38%

Percentage of ACT-tested graduates who met or exceeded the College Readiness Benchmark score, 2011

Note: A benchmark score indicates a 50% chance of obtaining a B or higher or about a 75% chance of obtaining a C or higher in the corresponding credit-bearing college courses.

Enrollment in College Does NOT Equal College Readiness in Washington

28Source: Washington Higher Education Coordinating Board, “Key Facts about Higher Education in Washington, 2011” Fall 2008. http://www.hecb.wa.gov/keyfacts/documents/RevisedBinder1-18-11.pdf

MathEnglish

Math & English

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%30%

14%

10%

Percentage of Recent Graduates Enrolled in Remediation at Washington Two- and Four-Year Institutions, 2007

29

Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Retention Rates

Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Retention Rates - First-Time College Freshmen Returning Their Second Year ; Graduation Rates. http://www.higheredinfo.org/

Completion (4-Year)Persistence (4-

Year)Persistence (2-Year)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

U.S.

Washington

56%

77%

54%63%

80%

57%

30

Desire for High Expectations: The Majority of Graduates Would Have Taken Harder Courses

Source: Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies (2005). Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work? Washington, DC: Achieve.

Series1

29%

32%

34%

62%

38%

41%

48%

72%

Students Who Did Not Go To CollegeCollege Students

Would have taken more challenging courses in at least one area

Math

Science

English

Knowing what you know today about the expectations of college/work …

THE SUPPORT: STAKEHOLDERS RECOGNIZE THE NEED FOR ACTIONResearch and polling demonstrates that students, teachers, parents, and the general public are dissatisfied with the status quo – and want to do something about it.

The Public on College and Career Readiness

32

69%

67%

Strongly AgreeAgree

To really get ahead in life, a person needs at least some

education beyond high school, whether that means

university, community college, technical or vocational school.

To really get ahead in life, a person needs more

than just a high school education.

87%

89%

Source: Achieve (2010). Achieving the Possible: What Americans Think the College and Career-Ready Agenda. http://www.achieve.org/files/AchievingThePossible-FinalReport.pdf

Parents on College and Career Readiness

33Source: Civic Enterprises (2008). One Dream, Two Realities: Perspectives of Parents on America's High Schools. http://www.futurereadyproject.org/sites/frp/files/onedream.pdf

High-Performing SchoolsModerate-Performing

SchoolsLow-Performing Schools

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

86%78%

74% 66%

38%

18%

51%

25%

13%

Percentage of Parents Who Say…Very Important for child to get education that would lead to college

School does a very good job preparing child for college

School does a very good job preparing child for good job

34

The vast majority of students intend to go on to college and do not expect to drop out of high school:

93 percent of middle school students report there is “no chance” they will drop out in high school.

94 percent of high school students say that they are planning to continue their education after high school either at a two- or four-year institution.

95 percent of teenagers report that graduating from high school is “critical to their future success.”

Students Overwhelmingly Want to Succeed and Attend College

Source: Middle Schools Poll, Prepared for the National Association of Secondary School Principals and Phi Delta Kappa, 2007; Civic Enterprises, The Silent Epidemic: Perspectives of High School Dropouts, 2006; Boys & Girls Clubs of America/Taco Bell Foundation for Teens, Teen Graduation Crisis Survey, 2009.

Graduates Consistently Regret Not Having Worked Harder – Or Having Been More Challenged – in High School

35Source: College Board (2011). One Year Out: Findings From A National Survey Among Members Of The High School Graduating Class Of 2010. http://www.collegeboard.org/OneYearOut

Series1

47%

35%

53%56%

Percent of 2010 Graduates Who Wish They Had Worked Harder In High School, by Postsecondary Enrollment

All Graduates Four-Year College Two-Year College No College/Other

36

Employers See the Value of Education – and the Knowledge and Skills Gaps in Their Recent Hires

Source: Corporate Voices for Working Families & Civic Enterprises (2011). Across the Great Divide: Perspectives of CEOs and College Presidents on America’s Higher Education and Skills Gap. www.civicenterprises.net/pdfs/across-the-great-divide.pdf & The Conference Board, Corporate Voices for Working Families, ASTD, SHRM (2008). The Ill-Prepared U.S. Workforce: Exploring the Challenges of Employer-Provided Workforce Readiness Training. www.shrm.org/Research/SurveyFindings/Articles/Documents/BED-09Workforce_RR.pdf

Series134%

22%

17%

51%

55%

51%

16%

24%

32%

Overall Preparation of New Work-force Entrants

Deficient Adequate

Excellent

2-Year College

High School

4-year College

More than three in four business leaders believe that increasing postsecondary completion will have an extremely or very positive impact on the U.S. economy (79%) and workforce productivity (76%).

Executives also recognize increasing postsecondary experiences could affect both the success of their company (75%) and their company’s ability to hire and retain employees with the necessary skills and knowledge (75%).

Educators Support Major Elements of the College- and Career-Ready Agenda

37Sources: MetLife (2010). The MetLife Survey of the American Teacher. www.metlife.com/assets/cao/contributions/foundation/american-teacher/MetLife_Teacher_Survey_2010.pdf & Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Scholastic (2010). Primary Sources: America's Teachers on America's School. www.scholastic.com/primarysources/pdfs/Scholastic_Gates_noapp_0310.pdf

69%

67%

74%

60%

Percent of Educators Who Agree That

High school is not preparing students for the workforce

It is important for all students to have one year or more of

postsecondary education to be prepared for a career

Clearer standards would make a strong or very strong impact on

student achievement

Common standards would have a strong or very strong impact

on student achievement

Educators Support Major Elements of the College- and Career-Ready Agenda

38Source: Achieve (2012) Growing Awareness, Growing Support: Teacher and Voter Understanding of the Common Core State Standards & Assessments. http://www.achieve.org/growingawarenessCCSS

Common AssessmentsCommon Core State Standards

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

7%8%

28%

20%

64%72%

Percentage of Teachers Who Favor/Oppose Implementing the Common Core and Common Assessments…

Don't Know/Not Sure Oppose ImplementationSupport Implementation

25% Strongly

15% Strongly

33% Strongly

10% Strongly

THE SOLUTION: STATE-LED EFFORTS TO CLOSE THE EXPECTATIONS GAP All students deserve a world-class education that prepares them for college, careers and life.

40

The College- and Career-Ready Agenda

Align high school standards with the demands of college

and careers.

Require students to take a college- and career-ready curriculum to earn a high school diploma.

Build college- and career-ready measures into statewide high school assessment systems.

Develop reporting and accountability systems that promote college and career readiness.

41

Washington’s Commitment to Closing the Expectations Gap to Date

In 2008, Washington adopted academic standards aligned with college- and career-ready expectations.

Washington adopted the Common Core State Standards in 2011.

In 2011, Washington raised their high school graduation requirements to the college- and career-ready level beginning with the Class of 2016.

Washington is a Governing state in the Smarter Balanced Assessment Consortium, a group states working to develop a common assessment system using Race to the Top Common Assessment funds.

Washington has a P-20 longitudinal data system that matches student-level data across K-12 and postsecondary systems on a regular basis.

Washington is a Lead Partner State in the development of the Next Generation Science Standards.

How Washington Can Continue to Build on its Momentum…

…Realize the promise of the Common Core State Standards by implementing them fully and successfully, taking into consideration the related curricular, professional development, and policy changes.

…Closely monitor which students are completing the college- and career-ready curriculum, and which are personally modifying the curriculum.

…Remain committed to the goals of SBAC and developing and administering a next-generation, computer-based assessment system anchored by college- and career-ready tests in high school that will let students know if they are ready for college-level coursework and measure the full range of the Common Core State Standards.

…Continue to make progress on the state’s data collection efforts, particularly around making student data available to relevant stakeholders.

…Re-examine the state’s K-12 accountability system to determine how it can reward measures of college and career readiness.

HOW WELL IS WASHINGTON

PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE,

CAREERS AND LIFE

September 2012