HOW WELL IS MONTANA PREPARING ALL

STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE

May 2011

A high school diploma is no longer enough; now, nearly every good job requires some education beyond high school – such as an associate’s or bachelor’s degree, certificate, license, or completion of an apprenticeship or significant on-the-job training.

Far too many students drop out or graduate from high school without the knowledge and skills required for success, closing doors and limiting their post-high school options and opportunities.

The best way to prepare students for life after high school is to align K-12 and postsecondary expectations. All students deserve a world-class education that prepares them for college, careers and life.

Why College- and Career-Ready Expectations for All?

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A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA IS NOLONGER ENOUGH FOR SUCCESSThe changing economy is accelerating theexpectations gap, as careers increasingly requiresome education/training beyond high school,and more developed knowledge and skills.

4Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. ww9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf

Jobs in Today’s (and Tomorrow’s) Workforce Require More Education and Training

The Rise of Middle-Skill Jobs

5Source: Holzer, Harry J. and Robert I. Lerman (February 2009). The Future of Middle-Skill Jobs. Brookings Institution.

High-skill jobs

Occupations in the professional/technical and managerial categories.

Often require four-year degrees and above

Middle-skill jobs

Occupations that include clerical, sales, construction, installation/repair, production, and transportation/material moving.

Low-skill jobs

Occupations in the service and agricultural categories.

Often require some education and training beyond high school (but typically less than a bachelor’s degree), including associate’s degrees, vocational certificates, significant on-the-job training.

Demand for Middle-Skill Workers Outpaces Montana’s Supply

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Sources: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna Desrochers (2003). Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K-12 Reform. Education Testing Services. http://www.learndoearn.org/For-Educators/Standards-for-What.pdf ; Skills to Compete. http://www.skills2compete.org National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

In 1950, 60% of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less. Today, less than 20% of jobs are considered to be unskilled.

One result: The demand for middle- and high-skilled workers is outpacing the state’s supply of workers educated and experienced at that level.

81% of U.S. jobs are middle- or high-skill (jobs that require some postsecondary education or training).

Yet only 38% of Montana’s adults have some postsecondary degree (associate’s or higher).

Education and Training Beyond High School Is Increasingly Being Demanded

7Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition. http://www.bls.gov/oco/oco2003.htm

The Jobs of Tomorrow

8Source: Milano, Jessica, Bruce Reed & Paul Weinstein Jr. (Sept 2009). A Matter of Degrees: Tomorrow’s Fastest Growing Jobs and Why Community College Graduates Will Get Them. The New Democratic Leadership Council.

Montana should be preparing students for the jobs of tomorrow, not the jobs of yesterday – or even today.

A quarter of American workers are now in jobs not even listed in the Census Bureau’s occupation codes in 1967.

Given the growth of new job sectors – most notably “green jobs” – it is common sense to provide all students with a strong foundation that keeps all doors open and all opportunities available in the future.

The Public Agrees That Education or Training Beyond High School is Necessary for Future Success

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To really get ahead in life, a person needs at least some education beyond high school, whether that means university, community college, technical or vocational school.

To really get ahead in life, a person needs more than just a high school education.

87%

89%

Source: Achieve, Inc. (2010). Achieving the Possible: What Americans Think the College and Career-Ready Agenda. http://www.achieve.org/files/AchievingThePossible-FinalReport.pdf

America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment

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Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2010. (All rates are self-reported.) http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2010_eag-2010-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2006)

55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 ALL (25-64)

1 U.S. (40%) Canada (44%) Canada (54%) Korea (58%) Canada (49%)

2 Canada (40%) Japan (43%) Japan (48%) Canada (56%) Japan (43%)

3 N.Z. (34%) U.S. (40%) Finland (44%) Japan (55%) U.S. (41%)

4 Finland (29%) N.Z. (38%) U.S. (43%) N.Z. (48%) N.Z. (40%)

5 Australia (28%) Finland (37%) Korea (43%) Norway (46%) Finland (37%)

6 Norway (28%) Australia (33%) N.Z. (40%) Ireland (45%) Korea (37%)

7 Switz. (27%) Denmark (32%) Norway (38%) Denmark (43%) Norway (36%)

8 U.K. (27%) Norway (32%) Australia (38%) Belgium (42%) Australia (36%)

9 Sweden (26%) Switz. (31%) Denmark (37%) Australia (42%) Denmark (34%)

10 Neth. (26%) Neth. (31%) Ireland (37%) U.S. (42%) Ireland (34%)

11 Denmark (26%) Iceland (30%) Switz. (36%) Sweden (41%) Switz. (34%)

12 Japan (26%) U.K. (30%) Iceland (36%) France (41%) U.K. (33%)

13 Germany (24%) Belgium (29%) Belgium (35%) Neth. (40%) Belgium (32%)

14 Iceland (24%) Sweden (28%) U.K. (33%) Spain (39%) Neth. (32%)

15 Belgium (22%) Ireland (27%) Sweden (33%) Luxembourg (39%) Sweden (32%)

45-64: Montana (36%) Montana (40%) Montana (42%) Montana (38%)

America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment

11Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2010. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2010_eag-2010-en ; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

FAR TOO MANY STUDENTS DROP OUT OR GRADUATE FROM HIGH SCHOOL UNPREPARED FOR REAL WORLD CHALLENGES

Of Every 100 9th Graders in Montana…

13Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Student Pipeline - Transition and Completion Rates from 9th Grade to College. http://www.higheredinfo.org

Achievement Remains Low: 8th Grade Achievement Over Time

14Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/

8th Grade Math 1992 2009

Montana n/a 44%

U.S. 21% 34%

8th Grade Reading 1998 2009

Montana 38% 38%

U.S. 33% 32%

8th Grade Science 1996 2009

Montana 41% 43%

U.S. 29% 30%

% At or Above Proficient on 8th Grade NAEP

And Gaps Persist: Montana’s 8th Grade Achievement Gap

15Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/

Subgroup8th Grade Math

(2009)8th Grade

Reading (2009)8th Grade Science

(2009)

All Students 44% 38% 35%

White 47% 40% 46%

Black n/a n/a n/a

Hispanic 27% n/a 33%

Asian n/a n/a n/a

American Indian 16% 20% 18%

% At or Above Proficient on 8th Grade NAEP

High School Graduation Rates Remain Inequitable in Montana

16Source: Education Week (2007). Graduation in the United States. http://www.edweek.org/media/ew/dc/2010/34sos_gradrate.pdf

America’s International Edge is Slipping in High School Graduation Rates

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Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2010. (All rates are self-reported) http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2010_eag-2010-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2008 and 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

Enrollment in College Does NOT Equal College Readiness

18Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2003). Remedial Education at Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall 2000.

Percentage of U.S. first-year students in two-year and four-year institutions requiring remediation

Freshmen at Two-Year Colleges are More Likely to Require Remediation

19Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2003). Remedial Education at Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall 2000.

Many College Students Fail to Return Their Sophomore Year and Go On To Earn Degrees

20Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Retention Rates - First-Time College Freshmen Returning Their Second Year ; Graduation Rates. http://www.higheredinfo.org/

Many College Students Fail to Earn a Degree in Montana

21Source: NCES. IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey, analyzed by National Center for Management of Higher Education Systems.

Percent of students earning a bachelor’s degree within six years in Montana, 2007

The Majority of Graduates Would Have Taken Harder Courses, Particularly in Mathematics

22Source: Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies (2005). Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work? Montana, DC: Achieve.

Would have taken more challenging courses in at least one area

Math

Science

English

Knowing what you know today about the expectations of college/work …

A MORE RIGOROUS & RELEVANT HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATION WILL OPEN DOORS FOR STUDENTS – AND KEEP THEM OPEN

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Personal Benefits of Education in Montana

While there may be jobs available to high school dropouts and graduates, they often pay less and offer less security than jobs held by those with at least some postsecondary experience.

The link between educational attainment and gainful employment is clear:

More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment.

25Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2010). Current Population Survey. Figures are based on the total persons in the civilian labor force. http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/cpstc/cps_table_creator.html

Personal Benefits of Education in Montana

Montana Statistics: Total Unemployment: 9%, Mean Income: $37,143

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Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf Analysis based on author’s analysis of March 2008 CPS data.

Benefits to Education

27Source: ACT (2010). ACT 2009 Results. http://www.act.org/news/data/09/states.html ; College Board. Mean 2010 SAT Scores by State. http://professionals.collegeboard.com/profdownload/2010-sat-trends.pdf

Montana’s Students Taking College Admissions Exams

2010 Montana U.S.

Participation in ACT 58% 47%

Average ACT Score 22 21

Participation in SAT 24% 47%

Average SAT Score 1593 1509

28Source: ACT (2010). College Readiness Benchmark Attainment by State. http://www.act.org/news/data/10/benchmarks.html?utm_campaign=cccr10&utm_source=data10_leftnav&utm_medium=web#benchmark

Students Meeting College Readiness Benchmark

Note: A benchmark score indicates a 50% chance of obtaining a B or higher or about a 75% chance of obtaining a C or higher in the corresponding credit-bearing college courses.

29Source: College Board (2011). AP Report to the Nation.http://professionals.collegeboard.com/profdownload/7th-annual-ap-report-to-the-nation-2011.pdf

Students Participating in Advanced Placement and Exceeding College and Career Readiness

Percent of all 12th Graders Participating in Advanced Placement (2008)

THE SOLUTION: STATE-LED EFFORTS TO CLOSE THE EXPECTATIONS GAP All students deserve a world-class education that prepares them for college, careers and life.

The College- and Career-Ready Agenda

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Montana’s Commitment to Closing the Expectations Gap to Date

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Montana is a Governing State in the SMARTER Balanced Assessment Consortium (SBAC), a group of states working to develop a common assessment system using Race to the Top Common Assessment funds.

Montana’s data system currently only satisfies seven essential Data Quality Campaign elements; Montana is committed to building a P-20 longitudinal data system that matches student-level data across K-12 and postsecondary systems on a regular basis.

How Montana Can Continue to Build on its Momentum…

…Adopt and realize the promise of the Common Core State Standards by implementing them fully and successfully, taking into consideration the related curricular and policy changes.

…Adopt college- and career-ready graduation requirements, aligned to the Common Core State Standards, to ensure all students are prepared, and eligible, for entry into college and skilled careers.

…Remain committed to the goals of the common assessment consortium and developing a next-generation, computer-based assessment system that will measure the full range of the Common Core State Standards.

…Continue to make progress on the state’s data collection efforts, particularly around making student data available to relevant stakeholders and linking K-12 and postsecondary student-level data.

…Re-examine the state’s K-12 accountability system to determine how it can reward measures of college and career readiness.

HOW WELL IS MONTANA PREPARING ALL

STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE

May 2011